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there had also been declines in a number of other asian currencies, prompted by concerns relating to the global economic slowdown and the effects of high oil prices.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,008 | 265 |
however, services inflation remained high.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 374 |
in that regard, an important contributor to the recent depreciation of the australian dollar had been the us dollar's appreciation.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,013 | 769 |
members observed that iron ore prices could remain high for some time, but prices were still expected to decline over the medium term.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,019 | 825 |
private sector wages growth had picked up further in the december quarter, consistent with the bank's forecasts and survey evidence that a significant share of firms were finding it difficult to attract suitable labour.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 715 |
as had been the case for some time, the flow of new listings for sale remained similar to pre-pandemic levels but total listings were much lower, implying that dwellings were being sold at a rapid pace.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 834 |
it had also been communicating that this was likely to require a faster rate of wages growth than had been experienced over previous years.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,022 | 417 |
while the unemployment rate had edged down a little further in previous months, broader measures of labour underutilisation had not declined.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 730 |
the forecasts for the australian economy were largely unchanged.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 791 |
gdp in the euro area picked up in the final quarter of 2006, taking growth over the year to 3.3 per cent.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,007 | 881 |
members noted that global shipping costs had increased recently, partly related to attacks on vessels in the red sea.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,024 | 752 |
there had been an increase in inflation for retail items because there had been some pass-through of the exchange rate depreciation and the drought had boosted certain food prices.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 667 |
underlying inflation had picked up a little and had been slightly higher than forecast, but the increase in headline inflation had been smaller than forecast.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 880 |
rents had continued to fall in perth and had been slightly lower in brisbane, where valuations for some new inner-city apartments had declined below their purchase prices.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 187 |
members noted that the extent of spare capacity in the economy at the end of the forecast period was uncertain, which meant that the gradual increase in inflation could be slower or faster than envisaged in the baseline scenario.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,021 | 535 |
low population growth, reflecting reduced net overseas migration in particular, was also expected to affect high-density residential investment for some time to come.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,021 | 195 |
members observed that inflation had increased, but remained low in underlying terms.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 356 |
mining investment had declined further in the march quarter, as construction work at some liquefied natural gas (lng) projects neared completion.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 27 |
the unemployment rate had also increased noticeably in ireland.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 555 |
in the immediate aftermath of the japanese disaster, commodity prices had declined as uncertainty rose, though this decline had been reversed after the situation became a little clearer.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 995 |
they would be reviewed following receipt of the national accounts data for the december quarter.
|
irrelevant
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 99 |
the board affirmed its commitment to supporting jobs, incomes and businesses and to making sure that australia is well placed for recovery.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 882 |
it was still expected to be above 3 per cent by mid 2010.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,008 | 504 |
however, they also noted that earnings forecasts generally assumed that the high share of profits in national income and high rates of earnings growth would continue.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,007 | 810 |
full-time employment had risen strongly again in may, to be around 6 per cent higher than its pre-pandemic level.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 452 |
the main exception was rural exports, which had been revised a little higher because of favourable weather.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 602 |
wage growth in the public sector over 2013 was around its slowest pace since 2000, consistent with ongoing fiscal restraint.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,014 | 631 |
house prices had increased more strongly in the september quarter.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,007 | 410 |
gdp growth was expected to be quite strong for the september quarter, although not as rapid as in the june quarter.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,009 | 321 |
the outbreak of the delta variant had delayed, but not derailed, the recovery.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 28 |
however, in europe, yield spreads to german government bonds had widened, most notably for greek government bonds, following a ratings announcement, as well as concerns over greek banks' reliance on funding from the european central bank.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 951 |
the tensions in european financial markets had seen a further pushing back in the expectations of when central banks in the three largest advanced economies would begin tightening policy.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 630 |
the recovery in household spending from the pandemic-related restrictions seemed to have mostly run its course.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,023 | 898 |
this suggested that the risks associated with rising household sector leverage and rapid gains in housing prices had diminished.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 456 |
according to the latest national accounts, all components of demand, apart from housing investment, were increasing strongly and economic activity had expanded at a pace well above average over the year to june.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,007 | 447 |
domestically, members noted that the economy appeared to be evolving broadly in line with the bank's expectations.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 499 |
members noted that the level of industrial production had fallen back to that of 25 years ago.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 436 |
growth in economic activity was still expected to be a little below trend this year, picking up gradually to be close to trend through 2014.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,013 | 772 |
developments in credit and asset markets, on the other hand, had remained subdued.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 644 |
company analysts had continued to revise up their estimates for overall profit growth in the year ahead, though within the aggregate, estimates of profit growth of resource companies had been revised down.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,006 | 213 |
the labour market remained strong, with employment increasing by nearly 60,000 over november and december, and the unemployment rate falling to 5 per cent.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 220 |
this was being led by household consumption, as high inflation weighed on household incomes and the effects of prior tightening in monetary policy worked their way through the economy.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 11 |
the unemployment rate had been broadly steady at around 5½ per cent since mid 2017, suggesting that spare capacity remained in the labour market.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 806 |
members noted that financial markets had generally experienced low volatility over preceding months.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 249 |
despite the weakening labour market, wages, as measured by average earnings in the national accounts, had risen by around 6 per cent over 2008, well above its recent average.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 482 |
the retail trade data had suggested relatively subdued sales in december but solid growth in january.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,010 | 389 |
members noted that uncertainty about job losses had affected the demand for new housing, and building approvals had declined, particularly for apartments.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 746 |
those projections remained above market expectations, which had flattened further following the fomc's reassessment and again after the release of weaker-than-expected employment data for march.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 121 |
at the time of the october meeting, market pricing implied that financial market participants applied around a 75 per cent likelihood of a 50 basis point increase in the cash rate and a 25 per cent likelihood of a 25 basis point increase; the cash rate was expected to be around 3.4 per cent by the end of 2022 and peak slightly above 4¼ per cent in mid-2023.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,022 | 952 |
more recently, as a result of the increase in lending rates to investors in housing, a significant amount of housing lending had been reclassified from investment to owner-occupation.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 231 |
more broadly, bank funding costs were estimated to have declined a little further in recent months.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,017 | 129 |
labour market conditions in most advanced economies had continued to improve, although inflation remained below most central banks' targets.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 36 |
before turning to the policy decision, members reviewed the policy and academic discussions taking place around the world regarding the operation of macroeconomic policy and monetary policy frameworks in an environment where interest rates are low because of structural factors.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 76 |
and the revisions to historical estimates of consumer spending meant that consumption growth, while still weak, had been more resilient than previously assessed.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,024 | 41 |
conditions in the non-mining business sector remained subdued.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,013 | 479 |
members observed that the unemployment rate had declined more quickly than expected, to 3.5 per cent in june – its lowest level in almost 50 years.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 387 |
members observed that business investment had been stronger than forecast a year earlier.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 96 |
the irish government was in the process of dismantling anglo irish bank, which had previously received sizable capital injections from the government.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 463 |
issuance of kangaroo bonds (australian dollar issues by offshore issuers) had been strong recently, taking advantage of the favourable cross-currency basis swap spread for such issuers.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 360 |
there had been little change in the outlook for the world economy since the previous board meeting.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,007 | 609 |
the stock of non-residential building work yet to be done had fallen further in the june quarter but was still around its decade-average as a share of gdp, and approvals for new work remained low.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 618 |
in contrast, economic activity in the euro area remained weak.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,013 | 871 |
chinese exports were also estimated to have grown strongly, with recent data indicating strength in shipments to the major advanced economies as well as to elsewhere in asia.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 971 |
members noted that the task facing monetary policy in future would become more difficult if a continuation of poor productivity growth were combined with an expectation of growth in nominal wages and profits at the same sorts of rates seen over the past two decades.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,011 | 82 |
members stressed the importance of es holders – in particular, banks – reflecting on the implications of the prospective framework for their own liquidity management operations as the stock of reserves declines.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,024 | 3 |
issuance of residential mortgage-backed securities (rmbs) had been strong in 2017.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 552 |
members noted that conditions in established housing markets had continued to vary considerably.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 355 |
this scrutiny and related work had shown that investor activity was considerably higher – and lending standards in some parts of the market weaker – than had originally been thought.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 19 |
on the second option, the board agreed that market participants could question the longevity of the yield target it if were raised or its tenor shortened.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,021 | 551 |
accommodative monetary policy, strong public demand, a renewed expansion in the resources sector and growth in exports were also expected to support a return of gdp growth to trend over coming years.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 557 |
the main news in relation to inflation over the past month was the release of the wage price index for the december quarter, which indicated an increase of 1.2 per cent in the quarter and 4.3 per cent over the year.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 468 |
the outlook for the global economy had been little changed, with the growth of australia's major trading partners forecast to be a little above average in 2014 and 2015.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,014 | 474 |
more broadly, information from the bank's liaison program indicated that upstream price pressures were being passed on by firms, as global and domestic supply chain pressures had persisted and demand had remained strong.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 343 |
this was a significant change from the strong rate of increase over 2007.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,008 | 228 |
looking at business conditions more broadly, members noted that commercial loan approvals, though typically volatile, had fallen sharply from the high levels recorded in 2007.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,008 | 332 |
nevertheless, members agreed that the outlook for domestic economic activity had eased a little, with a key source of uncertainty relating to the response of households to rising inflation, higher interest rates and declining housing prices in some cities.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,022 | 2 |
nonetheless, actual yields across the curve remained low.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 166 |
members also noted that, consistent with reports of deposit outflows, greek banks' use of emergency liquidity assistance had increased further during april and may.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 641 |
data on capital expenditure intentions had pointed to a substantial and broad-based decline in non-mining investment over the following year or so.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 484 |
members noted that global financial conditions had eased over prior months.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,024 | 651 |
members noted that the information received on inflation over the prior month had been reassuring.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 782 |
members discussed a paper on the potential use of new digital assets in payments.
|
irrelevant
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 854 |
measures of consumer confidence had declined recently and were now below average.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 902 |
there were some favourable signs in the australian residential mortgage-backed securities market.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,009 | 1 |
they also noted that the sharp increase in equity market volatility early in february had been mostly reversed, and volatility in financial markets generally remained at or a little below longer-run averages.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 923 |
the participation rate had remained high in january and, for most age cohorts, participation rates had been near or above pre-pandemic levels.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 958 |
but labour market conditions remained soft overall.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 809 |
the forecasts assumed a rise in the cash rate over the year ahead.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,009 | 180 |
market pricing implied that the fed could start raising its policy rate in late 2022 or early 2023, consistent with the ‘dot plot’, which summarises federal open market committee participants' outlook for the federal funds rate.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,021 | 874 |
recent levels of loan commitments suggested that housing credit growth could reach a six-month-ended annualised rate of around 10 per cent by early 2022.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,021 | 346 |
members noted that each of these outcomes was conceivable given the considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,024 | 856 |
banks were well placed to meet the basel iii capital requirements, which apra had begun phasing in from the start of the year.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,013 | 765 |
banks' funding costs had begun to increase from historically low levels owing to the rise in market rates over preceding months and the increase in the cash rate in may.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 975 |
the australian dollar had also traded in a relatively wide range in the recent period and closely tracked the changing sentiment in global financial markets.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,008 | 643 |
conditions in foreign exchange markets had remained very subdued, with little change in the major exchange rates and volatility declining further to multi-decade lows in the past month.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,014 | 800 |
the bank of japan's latest policy announcement included a facility to enhance access to us dollar swap lines, which reduced the cost of borrowing us dollars in exchange for yen.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 188 |
members noted that, while non-bank lending comprised a small share of system-wide credit and there had been little evidence of a decline in lending standards, it was important that lending standards remained prudent.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 671 |
members discussed trends in retail spending.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 471 |
while no explicit target was set, the ecb's intention appears to be to expand its balance sheet back to its crisis peak, which would be around 1 trillion euros larger than at present, through a combination of targeted long-term refinancing operations (tltros) and asset purchases.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,014 | 533 |
market participants had not ruled out the prospect of additional monetary policy support in the period ahead, including the possibility of negative policy rates in a number of jurisdictions.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,020 | 113 |
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