gtfintechlab/reserve_bank_of_australia · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 42 446	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
corporate bond yields had declined alongside the fall in government bond yields and a narrowing of credit spreads.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	829
the value of retail sales had fallen slightly in february, following average growth in january, and households' perceptions of their personal finances had declined to below-average levels.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	927
members noted that housing prices had increased noticeably across all major capital cities in june, based on preliminary data.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	550
in assessing the appropriate stance for monetary policy in australia, members noted that the outlook for global economic growth had not changed, with australia's major trading partners forecast to grow by around the average of recent years in 2015.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	455
liaison suggested that retailers had been more cautious about the outlook of late, although trading conditions had remained generally positive, and surveys suggested that consumers' perceptions of their own finances were still a little above average.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	766
growth was then expected to slow to around 1¾ per cent over both 2023 and 2024.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	574
members noted that consumer sentiment had remained well below average in the past few months, with this being particularly evident in consumers' views on buying conditions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	421
swiss government bond yields were negative up to a tenor of nearly 50 years.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	691
members noted that while the timing of investment upturns was very difficult to predict, it appeared likely that growth of the economy over the coming year would be below trend but that growth could reasonably be expected to pick up thereafter.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	690
indicators of consumer spending had been soft.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	650
pending this information, the board judged it appropriate to hold the cash rate unchanged.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	890
inflationary pressures had earlier proven more persistent than expected and there were upside risks to inflation from the labour market, rents and energy costs.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	954
although there was considerable uncertainty about the size of the net effect on gdp, it was expected to be small based on the available evidence.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	585
in japan, the expansion appeared to be continuing, though growth in exports and production had slowed over the past couple of months.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	519
the current yield curve implied that the market was expecting stabilisation in the economy with the possibility of rising inflation down the track.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	520
the latest data received on the domestic economy had evolved much as expected, with further indications that growth had picked up a little over the past two quarters.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	10
this reversal of capital flows had been reflected in large depreciations of emerging market currencies against the us dollar.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	206
members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by noting that the global economy had continued to recover and that conditions were in place for a sustained expansion.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	819
the cpi rose by 1.3 per cent in the quarter and by 4.2 per cent over the year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	753
however, members noted that the experience in australia had been different from that in the united states, where job resignation rates were at historically high levels and were coming at a time when labour force participation and employment remained considerably below pre-pandemic levels.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	491
banks' longer-term funding costs had declined a little over recent months, consistent with lower long-term government bond yields, even though spreads on bank bonds had increased over the preceding year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	543
members also noted that chinese steel production per capita was likely to be close to its peak and that growth in chinese steel production would not add much to global demand for iron ore in the future.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	666
members noted that this would tend to increase liquidity and had been associated with a general decline in interest rates, which would help to offset the increased cost of finance associated with measures aimed at restricting the availability of credit provided by non-bank entities.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	308
members discussed the implications of recent developments for the economic outlook.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,011	171
the australian dollar had depreciated by around 5 per cent since the previous board meeting – in contrast to the resilience it had displayed in the period of heightened risk aversion earlier in the year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	45
markets also expected smaller rate cuts from that point, given the ongoing resilience in economic activity and labour market conditions.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	699
other commodity prices were also high at present.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	139
yields on 10-year australian government securities had risen by around 40 basis points since the previous meeting, exceeding 3 per cent for the first time since 2015.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	216
the central authorities had announced further support for social housing construction as well as additional restrictions on property transactions.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	366
in addition, the global activity data had been somewhat softer and downside risks to the international economy had become a little more prominent over the past month, especially in the case of sovereign debt problems in europe.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	176
the three-month libor to swap spread in the australian market was now back at the low end of the international range, which had been the situation for most of the period since the onset of the financial crisis.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	920
as such, the march quarter inflation data had generally increased confidence in the forecast that underlying inflation would pick up to around 2 per cent by early 2018.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	258
housing price growth remained strongest in sydney and to a lesser extent melbourne, while price rises in other parts of the country had been more modest and prices had even declined in some cities recently.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	49
overall, the market had been relatively strong, having risen by 12 per cent over the year to date.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	433
domestically, the bank's policy measures had continued to underpin accommodative financial conditions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	930
retail price inflation had been low as competitive pressures in the retail sector had continued to restrain price rises.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	946
in australia, expectations for the cash rate implied by market prices had been little changed over the preceding month after increasing in late october following the release of the september quarter consumer price index (cpi) and market participants' increased expectations of the removal of the yield target.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	344
members agreed that whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend on how the incoming data alter the economic outlook and the evolving assessment of risks.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	936
members observed that the softness in commercial construction meant that there was labour available to support the strong growth of higher-density dwelling construction.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	824
liaison suggested that financing conditions for firms in the construction sector were improving, though they remained tight.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	741
there had been only a relatively limited amount of data on the domestic economy over the past month.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,010	999
the labour market continued to strengthen and inflation had picked up a little over recent months, while the pace of recovery in the housing market had slowed.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	855
over 2013, the us dollar had appreciated by 3 per cent on a trade-weighted basis, with a marked appreciation against the japanese yen and a number of emerging market and commodity currencies (including the australian dollar) partly offset by a modest depreciation against various european currencies and the chinese renminbi.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	751
profitability had increased, partly because of growth in investment banking activity and lending.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	124
the effects of stimulatory monetary policy were continuing to emerge.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,013	242
this step had partly sought to offset the reduction in liquidity resulting from sales of foreign reserves by the pbc in recent months.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	161
the recovery was still expected to be uneven and protracted, with inflation remaining low.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	42
the exchange rate had depreciated by more than 20 per cent over the past year and was now about 5 per cent below its post-float average.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	621
members noted that, over the same period, banks’ lending rates had increased slightly, driven by increases in housing lending rates for investors and on interest-only loans.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	524
adjusting for this, in underlying terms wages growth had remained stable at just over 4 per cent, having increased slowly from around 3 per cent over the past eight years.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	212
compared with a yield target, a bpp provides more flexibility to respond to evolving economic circumstances, although it could entail larger financial costs.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	718
members noted that the central forecast scenario was based on the usual technical assumption that the cash rate followed the path implied by market pricing, which suggested interest rates were expected to be lower over the next six months.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	262
combined with other measures of potential labour supply currently classified as outside the labour force, this suggested there was still a pool of workers available to firms should the demand for labour continue to increase.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	91
employment had continued to grow more rapidly than the working-age population, and the unemployment rate was around its long-run average level.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	813
the latest cpi data were regarded as providing confirmation that prices had indeed increased more modestly over the past six months than had been the case around the middle of 2006.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	401
consistent with the rise in investment, imports of capital goods had been growing particularly strongly over the past year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	761
these factors supported an argument for taking more pre-emptive action.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	579
it was also likely that having the various arms of policy all taking steps in the same direction would deliver a greater impact than the sum of the individual parts.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	991
banks had also continued to receive large inflows of deposits, another relatively low-cost source of funding.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	13
in the case of the reserve bank of new zealand and the bank of england, the expectation of further easing had followed guidance from these central banks that they were preparing for the possibility of negative policy rates.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	583
data for the us economy had been mixed, but prospects appeared to be gradually improving.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	458
export and import volumes were lower than they had been in 2014, although iron ore imports from australia appeared to have been steady over 2015.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	966
in the euro area, the fall in german yields had reflected, in part, the effect of safe-haven flows and an easing in growth momentum in the euro area.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	673
growth in most of asia was expected to remain relatively solid, but growth was expected to be fairly subdued in many of the advanced economies, with unemployment likely to remain high.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	73
wages growth was expected to pick up as remaining wage freezes and cuts implemented in 2020 were unwound and the labour market tightened.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	508
the strength in chinese crude steel production had supported imports of high-quality iron ore and coking coal.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	592
commercial property yields more broadly were being compressed across a range of market segments.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	938
although job vacancy rates had declined, they remained unusually high.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	581
members began their discussion on financial markets by noting that markets had been relatively stable over the past month.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	528
members noted that economic recoveries from financial crises tended to be slower, and that fiscal consolidation was also likely to be a drag on growth in coming years.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	202
in the business sector, members observed that the nab survey for the month of january showed a divergence between business conditions and business confidence.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	232
members noted that many market participants expected a further increase in the cash rate at this meeting.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	777
the softening in global activity had been associated with a general decline in commodity prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	138
gdp growth was expected to have slowed from the strong growth recorded in the march quarter, with export volumes declining following the very strong growth in the march quarter.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	477
looking at monetary policy settings around the world, members noted that market expectations were for the european central bank to lower its policy rate later in the week.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	54
of particular relevance to australia, chinese steel production had fallen over the past few months.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	24
the chinese equity market had weakened over the past two months.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	427
employment was estimated to have fallen in april, following a large rise in march.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	774
business investment was expected to have increased modestly in the december quarter, led by the non-mining sector.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	925
moreover, some further rise in wages growth would not necessarily be cause for concern, given the flexible and medium-term nature of the inflation target, so long as inflation expectations remained well anchored.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	107
however, the prices for iron ore had recently fallen sharply, after initial resilience relative to other commodity prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	297
national housing price growth had remained robust in february and most capital cities had experienced at least moderate price increases.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	143
in aggregate, the outlook was for growth in australia's major trading partners to remain a little below average, as previously forecast.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	153
looking ahead, the forecast for gdp still anticipated mining investment making a significant contribution to growth in the coming quarters, with non-resource investment remaining weak, some possibility of an increase in dwelling investment, consumption growing broadly in line with incomes, and public demand subtracting from growth.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	759
in any event, the data indicated that some divergence in growth among the states was not uncommon, though it was noteworthy that nsw had underperformed the national average for five consecutive years.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	640
members discussed the updated staff forecasts, which were little changed from the forecasts prepared at the time of the may meeting.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,010	818
more recently, there had also been some increase in real yields in most advanced economies.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	20
nonetheless, members acknowledged that inflation remained high and broadly based.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	548
corporate bond issuance in australian had also been strong, particularly offshore.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	284
the euro area was experiencing significant economic weakness.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	638
issuance of government-guaranteed debt by banks in the united states and australia had continued to be very strong.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	394
notwithstanding the general deterioration in financial market sentiment, conditions in global money markets were considerably better than late last year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	425
for the advanced economies as a whole, budget deficits had increased more quickly, and by a larger amount, than in previous downturns, reflecting the synchronised nature of the current downturn and the significant discretionary easing of fiscal policy.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	347
in australia, the economic recovery was under way and recent data had generally been better than expected.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	57
in contrast, measures of year-ended headline and core inflation in the united states had picked up in recent months.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	182
in contrast to some major advanced economy banking systems, growth of credit in some asian economies had remained rapid.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	974
european gas and thermal coal prices had fallen significantly over the prior month owing to the commitment to implement energy rationing and the imposition of a windfall tax on non-gas energy generation, including from coal.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	757
improvements in labour market conditions were expected to reverse temporarily in the september quarter as a result of the lockdowns in greater sydney and other parts of the country.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	183
the authorities in some economies had moved to tighten policy somewhat recently, but monetary policies were still expansionary in the region.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	319
members noted that the international monetary fund's financial sector assessment program report on the australian financial system was generally positive about the resilience of domestic financial institutions and the quality of regulatory and supervisory oversight, but made several high-level recommendations for improving current arrangements.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	835

corporate bond yields had declined alongside the fall in government bond yields and a narrowing of credit spreads.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

829

the value of retail sales had fallen slightly in february, following average growth in january, and households' perceptions of their personal finances had declined to below-average levels.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

927

members noted that housing prices had increased noticeably across all major capital cities in june, based on preliminary data.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

550

in assessing the appropriate stance for monetary policy in australia, members noted that the outlook for global economic growth had not changed, with australia's major trading partners forecast to grow by around the average of recent years in 2015.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

455

liaison suggested that retailers had been more cautious about the outlook of late, although trading conditions had remained generally positive, and surveys suggested that consumers' perceptions of their own finances were still a little above average.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

766

growth was then expected to slow to around 1¾ per cent over both 2023 and 2024.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

574

members noted that consumer sentiment had remained well below average in the past few months, with this being particularly evident in consumers' views on buying conditions.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

421

swiss government bond yields were negative up to a tenor of nearly 50 years.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

691

members noted that while the timing of investment upturns was very difficult to predict, it appeared likely that growth of the economy over the coming year would be below trend but that growth could reasonably be expected to pick up thereafter.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

690

indicators of consumer spending had been soft.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

650

pending this information, the board judged it appropriate to hold the cash rate unchanged.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

890

inflationary pressures had earlier proven more persistent than expected and there were upside risks to inflation from the labour market, rents and energy costs.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

954

although there was considerable uncertainty about the size of the net effect on gdp, it was expected to be small based on the available evidence.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

585

in japan, the expansion appeared to be continuing, though growth in exports and production had slowed over the past couple of months.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

519

the current yield curve implied that the market was expecting stabilisation in the economy with the possibility of rising inflation down the track.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

520

the latest data received on the domestic economy had evolved much as expected, with further indications that growth had picked up a little over the past two quarters.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

10

this reversal of capital flows had been reflected in large depreciations of emerging market currencies against the us dollar.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

206

members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by noting that the global economy had continued to recover and that conditions were in place for a sustained expansion.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

819

the cpi rose by 1.3 per cent in the quarter and by 4.2 per cent over the year.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

753

however, members noted that the experience in australia had been different from that in the united states, where job resignation rates were at historically high levels and were coming at a time when labour force participation and employment remained considerably below pre-pandemic levels.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

491

banks' longer-term funding costs had declined a little over recent months, consistent with lower long-term government bond yields, even though spreads on bank bonds had increased over the preceding year.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

543

members also noted that chinese steel production per capita was likely to be close to its peak and that growth in chinese steel production would not add much to global demand for iron ore in the future.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

666

members noted that this would tend to increase liquidity and had been associated with a general decline in interest rates, which would help to offset the increased cost of finance associated with measures aimed at restricting the availability of credit provided by non-bank entities.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

308

members discussed the implications of recent developments for the economic outlook.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,011

171

the australian dollar had depreciated by around 5 per cent since the previous board meeting – in contrast to the resilience it had displayed in the period of heightened risk aversion earlier in the year.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

45

markets also expected smaller rate cuts from that point, given the ongoing resilience in economic activity and labour market conditions.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

699

other commodity prices were also high at present.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

139

yields on 10-year australian government securities had risen by around 40 basis points since the previous meeting, exceeding 3 per cent for the first time since 2015.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

216

the central authorities had announced further support for social housing construction as well as additional restrictions on property transactions.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

366

in addition, the global activity data had been somewhat softer and downside risks to the international economy had become a little more prominent over the past month, especially in the case of sovereign debt problems in europe.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

176

the three-month libor to swap spread in the australian market was now back at the low end of the international range, which had been the situation for most of the period since the onset of the financial crisis.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

920

as such, the march quarter inflation data had generally increased confidence in the forecast that underlying inflation would pick up to around 2 per cent by early 2018.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

258

housing price growth remained strongest in sydney and to a lesser extent melbourne, while price rises in other parts of the country had been more modest and prices had even declined in some cities recently.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

49

overall, the market had been relatively strong, having risen by 12 per cent over the year to date.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

433

domestically, the bank's policy measures had continued to underpin accommodative financial conditions.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

930

retail price inflation had been low as competitive pressures in the retail sector had continued to restrain price rises.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

946

in australia, expectations for the cash rate implied by market prices had been little changed over the preceding month after increasing in late october following the release of the september quarter consumer price index (cpi) and market participants' increased expectations of the removal of the yield target.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

344

members agreed that whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend on how the incoming data alter the economic outlook and the evolving assessment of risks.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

936

members observed that the softness in commercial construction meant that there was labour available to support the strong growth of higher-density dwelling construction.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

824

liaison suggested that financing conditions for firms in the construction sector were improving, though they remained tight.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

741

there had been only a relatively limited amount of data on the domestic economy over the past month.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,010

999

the labour market continued to strengthen and inflation had picked up a little over recent months, while the pace of recovery in the housing market had slowed.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

855

over 2013, the us dollar had appreciated by 3 per cent on a trade-weighted basis, with a marked appreciation against the japanese yen and a number of emerging market and commodity currencies (including the australian dollar) partly offset by a modest depreciation against various european currencies and the chinese renminbi.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

751

profitability had increased, partly because of growth in investment banking activity and lending.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

124

the effects of stimulatory monetary policy were continuing to emerge.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,013

242

this step had partly sought to offset the reduction in liquidity resulting from sales of foreign reserves by the pbc in recent months.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

161

the recovery was still expected to be uneven and protracted, with inflation remaining low.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

42

the exchange rate had depreciated by more than 20 per cent over the past year and was now about 5 per cent below its post-float average.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

621

members noted that, over the same period, banks’ lending rates had increased slightly, driven by increases in housing lending rates for investors and on interest-only loans.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

524

adjusting for this, in underlying terms wages growth had remained stable at just over 4 per cent, having increased slowly from around 3 per cent over the past eight years.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

212

compared with a yield target, a bpp provides more flexibility to respond to evolving economic circumstances, although it could entail larger financial costs.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

718

members noted that the central forecast scenario was based on the usual technical assumption that the cash rate followed the path implied by market pricing, which suggested interest rates were expected to be lower over the next six months.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

262

combined with other measures of potential labour supply currently classified as outside the labour force, this suggested there was still a pool of workers available to firms should the demand for labour continue to increase.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

91

employment had continued to grow more rapidly than the working-age population, and the unemployment rate was around its long-run average level.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

813

the latest cpi data were regarded as providing confirmation that prices had indeed increased more modestly over the past six months than had been the case around the middle of 2006.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

401

consistent with the rise in investment, imports of capital goods had been growing particularly strongly over the past year.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

761

these factors supported an argument for taking more pre-emptive action.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

579

it was also likely that having the various arms of policy all taking steps in the same direction would deliver a greater impact than the sum of the individual parts.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

991

banks had also continued to receive large inflows of deposits, another relatively low-cost source of funding.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

13

in the case of the reserve bank of new zealand and the bank of england, the expectation of further easing had followed guidance from these central banks that they were preparing for the possibility of negative policy rates.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

583

data for the us economy had been mixed, but prospects appeared to be gradually improving.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

458

export and import volumes were lower than they had been in 2014, although iron ore imports from australia appeared to have been steady over 2015.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

966

in the euro area, the fall in german yields had reflected, in part, the effect of safe-haven flows and an easing in growth momentum in the euro area.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

673

growth in most of asia was expected to remain relatively solid, but growth was expected to be fairly subdued in many of the advanced economies, with unemployment likely to remain high.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

73

wages growth was expected to pick up as remaining wage freezes and cuts implemented in 2020 were unwound and the labour market tightened.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

508

the strength in chinese crude steel production had supported imports of high-quality iron ore and coking coal.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

592

commercial property yields more broadly were being compressed across a range of market segments.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

938

although job vacancy rates had declined, they remained unusually high.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

581

members began their discussion on financial markets by noting that markets had been relatively stable over the past month.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

528

members noted that economic recoveries from financial crises tended to be slower, and that fiscal consolidation was also likely to be a drag on growth in coming years.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

202

in the business sector, members observed that the nab survey for the month of january showed a divergence between business conditions and business confidence.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,008

232

members noted that many market participants expected a further increase in the cash rate at this meeting.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,010

777

the softening in global activity had been associated with a general decline in commodity prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

138

gdp growth was expected to have slowed from the strong growth recorded in the march quarter, with export volumes declining following the very strong growth in the march quarter.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

477

looking at monetary policy settings around the world, members noted that market expectations were for the european central bank to lower its policy rate later in the week.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

54

of particular relevance to australia, chinese steel production had fallen over the past few months.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

24

the chinese equity market had weakened over the past two months.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

427

employment was estimated to have fallen in april, following a large rise in march.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

774

business investment was expected to have increased modestly in the december quarter, led by the non-mining sector.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

925

moreover, some further rise in wages growth would not necessarily be cause for concern, given the flexible and medium-term nature of the inflation target, so long as inflation expectations remained well anchored.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

107

however, the prices for iron ore had recently fallen sharply, after initial resilience relative to other commodity prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

297

national housing price growth had remained robust in february and most capital cities had experienced at least moderate price increases.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

143

in aggregate, the outlook was for growth in australia's major trading partners to remain a little below average, as previously forecast.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

153

looking ahead, the forecast for gdp still anticipated mining investment making a significant contribution to growth in the coming quarters, with non-resource investment remaining weak, some possibility of an increase in dwelling investment, consumption growing broadly in line with incomes, and public demand subtracting from growth.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

759

in any event, the data indicated that some divergence in growth among the states was not uncommon, though it was noteworthy that nsw had underperformed the national average for five consecutive years.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

640

members discussed the updated staff forecasts, which were little changed from the forecasts prepared at the time of the may meeting.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,010

818

more recently, there had also been some increase in real yields in most advanced economies.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

20

nonetheless, members acknowledged that inflation remained high and broadly based.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

548

corporate bond issuance in australian had also been strong, particularly offshore.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

284

the euro area was experiencing significant economic weakness.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

638

issuance of government-guaranteed debt by banks in the united states and australia had continued to be very strong.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

394

notwithstanding the general deterioration in financial market sentiment, conditions in global money markets were considerably better than late last year.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

425

for the advanced economies as a whole, budget deficits had increased more quickly, and by a larger amount, than in previous downturns, reflecting the synchronised nature of the current downturn and the significant discretionary easing of fiscal policy.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

347

in australia, the economic recovery was under way and recent data had generally been better than expected.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

57

in contrast, measures of year-ended headline and core inflation in the united states had picked up in recent months.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

182

in contrast to some major advanced economy banking systems, growth of credit in some asian economies had remained rapid.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

974

european gas and thermal coal prices had fallen significantly over the prior month owing to the commitment to implement energy rationing and the imposition of a windfall tax on non-gas energy generation, including from coal.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

757

improvements in labour market conditions were expected to reverse temporarily in the september quarter as a result of the lockdowns in greater sydney and other parts of the country.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

183

the authorities in some economies had moved to tighten policy somewhat recently, but monetary policies were still expansionary in the region.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,008

319

members noted that the international monetary fund's financial sector assessment program report on the australian financial system was generally positive about the resilience of domestic financial institutions and the quality of regulatory and supervisory oversight, but made several high-level recommendations for improving current arrangements.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

835