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resource exports had grown strongly in the december quarter and there were early indications of strength in resource exports in the first few months of 2015.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 511 |
members noted that these indicators were consistent with data and evidence from liaison suggesting that non-mining business investment had been growing in some parts of the economy that were less exposed to the effects of the decline in commodity prices and the fall in mining investment.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 738 |
policy measures had continued to support growth and had been tilted towards steel-intensive activities.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 307 |
the chinese renminbi had also continued to edge lower; the effective exchange rate had depreciated partly because of the appreciation of the yen, which has a significant weight in china's trade-weighted basket.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 83 |
share markets in other developed countries had also been strong in 2006, apart from japan, where the market had been relatively flat following a very strong year in 2005.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,007 | 488 |
members noted that the adjustment in the retail sector had been protracted and had put downward pressure on inflation for some years.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 566 |
the five major australian banks had now all announced their profits for the 2005/06 financial year, mostly ending in september (except for the cba, whose financial year ended in june).
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,006 | 317 |
employment growth had been running well above growth in the working-age population and, in preceding months, had been concentrated in full-time employment.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 244 |
the closure of international borders had led to sharp falls in tourism imports and exports, and education exports had also been much lower.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 713 |
members discussed the implications of the current financial market turmoil for global economic prospects, particularly through the channel of credit provision to businesses and households.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,008 | 403 |
data on approvals in recent months suggested that construction of non-residential buildings was likely to make a smaller contribution to growth in non-mining business investment in future.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,018 | 357 |
the unemployment rate in august was 3.5 per cent, around the lowest rate in almost 50 years.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 674 |
nationwide measures of housing prices had increased by around 9 per cent over the year to september.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 119 |
a number of advanced economies were growing at above-trend rates and were experiencing increasingly tight labour market conditions.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 72 |
private-sector price measures had strengthened further in june, and the abs data showed a very strong increase in the june quarter after being relatively weak in the march quarter.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 264 |
new dwelling prices had declined again in the june quarter, reflecting the use of bonus offers and purchase incentives by developers to counter the weak housing conditions.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 914 |
similarly, equity prices had declined a little for australian banks but by much less than for other major banking systems.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 359 |
the lagged response to higher housing prices and a period of low building activity had raised the likelihood that dwelling investment would be stronger in the medium term than currently expected.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,019 | 169 |
growth had been boosted by exports, following the substantial depreciation of the us dollar.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,008 | 560 |
labour markets in the advanced economies had continued to tighten and wages growth had picked up.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 531 |
members agreed that, if developments unfolded as currently expected, monetary policy would need to be adjusted further over time to lessen the degree of stimulus.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 174 |
in underlying terms, inflation had increased from 2½ per cent at the end of 2005 to around 3 per cent in the september quarter 2006, where it had remained in the final quarter of the year.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,007 | 225 |
members observed that some resource firms may have been able to increase their exports to take advantage of higher commodity prices by running down inventories.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,017 | 575 |
members noted that, from october, the australian bureau of statistics would commence publishing a monthly cpi indicator, which would provide a timelier read on price pressures – though it could take some time for reliable trends to be discernible.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 243 |
members noted that when total returns – which include dividend payments – were taken into account, australian equities had performed similarly to equity markets in most other advanced economies, apart from the united states, where equity markets had outperformed.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 589 |
accounting for household offset accounts, the household credit-to-gdp ratio was at its lowest since the early 2000s, as was the ratio of business credit to gdp.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 556 |
total social financing flows had moderated in recent months and overall inflationary pressures remained subdued.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 677 |
members had a detailed discussion of spare capacity in the labour market.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 416 |
the main exception had been the price of gas in europe, where a decline in october had been reversed in november with the onset of colder weather.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 893 |
since the last change to monetary policy in june, the board had concluded that the stance of monetary policy resulting in interest rates being a bit below average was appropriate, given low inflation and the weaker outlook for growth globally.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,012 | 872 |
deposit rates had declined somewhat over the course of 2017, as banks' demand for deposit funding had eased once they had adjusted their balance sheets to comply with the net stable funding ratio (nsfr), which had come into effect at the start of 2018.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 883 |
interest rates on housing and business loans remained historically low.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,020 | 173 |
growth in incomes had been particularly strong in the june and september quarters of 2020, as fiscal transfers such as social assistance and subsidy payments had more than offset the declines in labour and financial income.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 120 |
however, a substantial part of the increase in employment appeared to reflect changes in the sample.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,013 | 261 |
prices of tradable items declined in the december quarter.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,013 | 304 |
in considering whether or not to reduce the cash rate further at this meeting, members discussed the various channels through which monetary policy was affecting the economy at present, including the asset price and exchange rate channels.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,015 | 913 |
members noted that the strength of recent labour market data had removed some of the downside risk in the bank's forecast of wage growth.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 512 |
it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 973 |
lower prospective growth in demand was expected to reduce both goods and services inflation over time.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,023 | 127 |
nevertheless, measures of aggregate wage growth remained high relative to the slow rate of productivity growth, implying that unit labour costs were growing more quickly.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 313 |
for the global economy, data received over the previous month had been somewhat more positive.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,012 | 841 |
members noted that global growth could continue to surprise on the upside, given the synchronised nature of the current upturn.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,018 | 901 |
however, both the retail and transportation sectors had experienced well below-average conditions.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 349 |
mining investment had declined noticeably to be around 15 per cent below its peak in late 2012, and further substantial falls were anticipated over coming quarters.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,014 | 830 |
members observed that the increasing use of technology to replace manual effort in the finance sector and long-run increases in the quality and size of homes, as well as a greater number of dwellings per capita, were likely to have contributed to these trends.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,018 | 156 |
equity market volatility had increased from the very low levels of 2017, in part reflecting concerns over the direction of international trade policy in the united states.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 723 |
there were some dampening factors affecting the outlook for the us economy, but these had had little effect elsewhere thus far, and global economic growth was expected to continue at an above-average pace next year.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,007 | 322 |
growth in public sector investment had been positive despite a decline in defence spending.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 687 |
public demand was expected to be sustained at a high level over the coming year; the decline in public consumption as the pandemic and flood-related support rolls off was expected to be largely offset by capital investment programs.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,023 | 376 |
recent data suggested that the us economy had grown at a moderate pace over recent months, after contracting in the first quarter.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,014 | 573 |
the forecast for inflation had been revised up, and over the next couple of years it was likely that inflation would not be much below the top of the target range.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,010 | 385 |
the bank's forecasts for inflation to remain close to the target over the next year or so assumed ongoing productivity growth and wage growth remaining around the more moderate pace of recent quarters.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,013 | 827 |
the board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points and the interest rate on exchange settlement balances at zero per cent.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 755 |
housing prices, in particular, had increased strongly in a number of countries in the latter part of 2020 and early 2021.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 721 |
members were informed that the most accurate indicator of current trends in house prices was the case-shiller series, which was a monthly repeat-sales index derived from sales of houses in the 20 largest cities.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,007 | 370 |
growth in crude steel production had been modest and steel prices had fallen noticeably over the past month.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 600 |
there was little spare capacity in the economy, with the unemployment rate very low.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 255 |
some economies, including the united states and united kingdom, had seen relatively modest declines in inflation so far, although the extent of the contraction in economic activity that had occurred suggested that further disinflation was likely.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,009 | 230 |
however, the marked deterioration in global financial conditions over the past couple of months, which had also had an effect on australian financial markets and share prices, was likely to have a significant effect as well on business and consumer sentiment, and liaison information was reflecting this.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,008 | 711 |
many households have built up large financial buffers and are benefiting from stronger income growth.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 877 |
there had been strong growth in employment and a welcome decline in the unemployment rate.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 964 |
the path of business investment spending would be affected by the turning of the cycle in resources investment, where indicators continued to suggest that a decline was likely over the next several years.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,013 | 771 |
members discussed issues surrounding high public debt levels in many advanced economies.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 460 |
however, employment was flat or falling in manufacturing and goods distribution.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 111 |
there was a significant contribution from the inventory cycle.
|
irrelevant
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 122 |
inflationary pressures were expected to pick up in response to above-trend growth in output and gradually tightening labour market conditions.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,019 | 345 |
firms in the bank’s liaison program reported that the demand for labour had remained strong, but had eased over preceding months in line with the job advertisements data.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 634 |
members recognised that these forecasts were subject to a high degree of uncertainty and that there were significant risks on both the upside and downside.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,008 | 692 |
the aggregate return on equity had fallen over the past year, partly owing to increases in banks' capital ratios.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,009 | 22 |
the labour market remained tight, but less so than a few months earlier.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 780 |
the local share market also moved generally in line with its global counterparts, but in contrast to recent months, it tended to outperform other markets.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 668 |
data on the global economy suggested that prospects for all the major regions of the world were improving, though some more noticeably than others.
|
hawkish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,009 | 994 |
however, members observed that a range of indicators suggested that conditions in the housing market were stabilising.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 443 |
recent data on activity in the united kingdom had remained relatively soft.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 267 |
pricing in domestic financial markets indicated that there was little chance of a reduction in the cash rate at the present meeting.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 701 |
the large falls in employment in recent months had led to a rise in the unemployment rate to 8½ per cent in march, although there were signs that the rate of deterioration in the labour market had stabilised.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,009 | 926 |
members noted that current market pricing implied around an even chance of a 25 basis point easing in monetary policy at this meeting.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,012 | 170 |
turning to domestic financial markets, members noted that growth in housing lending to owner-occupiers had slowed to 5 per cent in six-month-ended annualised terms, while growth in lending to investors in housing had stabilised at a rate of around 1 per cent.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,019 | 272 |
the unemployment rate had edged back down to 3.4 per cent in october – the equal lowest rate since september 1974.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 65 |
vaccine supplies remained limited in many emerging market countries, hampering their economic recoveries.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,021 | 151 |
financial market pricing indicated that the domestic cash rate was expected to remain unchanged at the current meeting.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 756 |
the australian banking system continued to be in a relatively strong condition.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 939 |
and while the effects on chinese exports had been modest to date, members noted that disruptions to goods production and distribution networks would become more evident if there were further outbreaks of covid-19.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,022 | 922 |
a key question remained as to whether these developments would increase the capacity and willingness of european banks to lend.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,012 | 451 |
high growth in population and nominal labour incomes and the difficulties associated with building new dwellings had supported demand for established housing nationally, despite recent increases in the cost of credit.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 391 |
if slower growth in demand could be expected to result in a more moderate inflation outcome, then a case could be made for a further easing of monetary policy.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,012 | 204 |
recent data suggested that growth had probably slowed a little from that reported for the first quarter to be around trend pace.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,012 | 229 |
resource exports looked to have rebounded in the september quarter, following earlier disruptions from adverse weather and some unanticipated shutdowns of lng facilities.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,015 | 299 |
accommodative policy settings had helped sustain growth above estimates of potential for several years.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,017 | 276 |
market economists had also revised lower their expectations for further increases in the cash rate this year; the average expected peak in the cash rate had declined from 4.45 per cent prior to the august meeting to around 4.3 per cent subsequently.
|
dovish
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,023 | 486 |
growth of australia's major trading partners remained consistent with the earlier outlook, with growth early in 2014 around its long-run average.
|
neutral
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,014 | 534 |
the authorities had announced a target for output growth in 2018 of around 6½ per cent, which was lower than the published rate of growth for 2017 of 6.9 per cent.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,018 | 978 |
the rise in labour productivity apparent in the data over the year to the march quarter meant that unit labour costs as measured had increased only modestly over this period, and had even declined a little in the march quarter.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,016 | 884 |
members also noted that the current price growth was somewhat at odds with the falls in housing loan approvals over recent months.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 541 |
in contrast, non-tradables inflation (excluding deposit & loan facilities) had picked up to a year-ended rate of 4.4 per cent, with significant increases in the prices of housing-related items, most notably utilities.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,010 | 983 |
members agreed that the australian economy had significant underlying momentum and inflationary pressures were pronounced.
|
hawkish
|
not forward looking
|
certain
| 2,022 | 969 |
health outcomes also continued to be an important source of uncertainty, although this was likely to diminish as a greater proportion of the population is vaccinated.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,021 | 972 |
liaison suggested that the pace of retail spending might have eased somewhat more recently, while measures of consumer confidence fell back to around average levels in may.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,013 | 980 |
there was no market expectation of any policy rate increase in the united states and the united kingdom in the period ahead because of weaker-than-expected data.
|
neutral
|
forward looking
|
certain
| 2,011 | 305 |
members noted that these price developments could be largely explained by increases in supply, although easing demand was also a factor.
|
dovish
|
not forward looking
|
uncertain
| 2,014 | 348 |
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