gtfintechlab/reserve_bank_of_australia · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 42 446	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the monthly cpi indicator for headline inflation had moderated to 7.4 per cent over the year (from 8.4 per cent in december).	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	549
overall business conditions had increased in the june quarter, according to the nab survey, and were around previously recorded peaks labour market data had continued to be strong.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	476
members noted that food and energy make up a relatively large share of chinese households' consumption and that recent disease- and weather-related supply problems are likely to result in further increases in food prices.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	663
members noted that there was considerable uncertainty around the timing and extent of the expected increase in household consumption growth and non-mining business investment.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	820
the announcement of this had little effect on interest rates on bank debt, though a scarcity premium on guaranteed issues saw spreads on guaranteed debt decline a little.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	736
the argument for an increase of 25 basis points was that a sequence of 25 basis point moves represented a steady approach to withdrawing monetary policy stimulus and that this was appropriate in an uncertain environment.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	867
members concluded their discussion of international economic conditions by taking stock of upside and downside risks to the global outlook.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	32
members noted that the strength in the housing market and data on retail sales, for example, indicated that household consumption growth was likely to have picked up a little from the pace recorded in recent quarters.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	990
conditions in the labour market were expected to ease further over the coming year or so, to levels consistent with sustained full employment.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	676
mining investment was expected to increase over the forecast period as mining firms invest to maintain production; this outlook was supported by mining firms' profitability having remained strong.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	234
the inflation data for the december quarter had been in line with the forecasts presented in the november statement on monetary policy.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	833
project completions were expected to support further growth in resource exports, particularly iron ore and liquefied natural gas (lng).	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	892
off-balance sheet financing had continued to decline, reflecting the authorities' efforts to discourage riskier forms of financing.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	472
members recognised that the calibration of this guidance was not precise or straightforward.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,017	201
spare capacity had continued to be absorbed, especially in the major advanced economies.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	745
indicators of domestic demand across advanced economies had been mixed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	678
recent indicators suggested that the australian economy had been expanding at a below-trend pace.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	959
members recalled that the wage price index had risen by 4 per cent over the year to the june quarter, which indicated no acceleration in wages.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	710
meeting this condition will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it was at the time of the meeting.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	159
domestically, the increase in gdp growth in the june quarter confirmed that some of the weakness in the previous quarter had been temporary and was consistent with expectations that growth would increase gradually over the coming year, supported by the current stance of monetary policy.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	368
growth in business and dwelling investment had been stronger than expected, supported by targeted fiscal measures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	185
this was a significant increase over such a period and much of the effect of it was still to be seen.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,008	728
thereafter, they were expected to drift lower, reflecting the effect of the expected slowing in world gdp growth.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	735
the chinese renminbi had depreciated further, to be around 5 per cent lower in trade-weighted terms than earlier in the year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	492
translating estimates of the neutral rate to a nominal interest rate involves adding inflation expectations.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	505
this was partly because many workers had maintained attachment to their employers while on reduced or zero hours in states affected by lockdowns.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	168
variable mortgage rates had declined broadly in line with the reductions in the cash rate in june and july.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	38
private sector financing conditions had tightened a little in most advanced economies since the previous meeting.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	101
members noted that conditions in the established housing market had continued to vary across the country.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	233
australian share prices declined in october to be little changed from the beginning of 2016.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	266
current market pricing did not indicate any expectation of a change in monetary policy at this meeting.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	470
activity in china had rebounded in may following the relaxation of covid-19-related mobility restrictions and in response to ongoing policy stimulus.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	688
members noted that the shift from cash to electronic payments is further advanced in australia than in a number of other countries.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	707
demand had, until then, been sustained by very strong growth in real gross domestic income, which had been boosted by the strong rise in the terms of trade.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	278
this slowing had been broad-based across states and industries, and was particularly pronounced in the household services and retail sectors.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	570
information from liaison suggested employment intentions had remained weak in the residential construction sector but positive among services firms.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	670
members noted that the cost of borrowing us dollars in money markets had fallen a little in october following the implementation of new regulations for us money market funds.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	675
a month earlier, members had noted that there were some tentative signs that chinese growth might be stabilising at a more sustainable pace.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	144
the people's bank of china raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points late in december and had also increased the reserve ratios of banks twice over the past two months.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	918
the reduced flow of new arrivals to australia was also affecting some markets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	141
members agreed that it would be important to reassess the economic outlook in february 2020, when the bank would prepare updated forecasts.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	263
share prices in japan had not been as strong as elsewhere, and had shown little change since the start of the year after the sharp increases in the previous two years.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	128
longer term government bond yields had declined in most economies over the prior month, driven by the decline in longer term policy rate expectations amid signs that inflation may have peaked and the weakening economic outlook.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	607
members also agreed that, while less accommodative monetary policy would, all else equal, see lower housing prices and credit growth, it would result in fewer jobs and lower wages growth, which would in turn create further distance from the goals of monetary policy – namely, full employment and inflation sustainably within the target range.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	108
market pricing suggested that the federal funds rate was expected to decline by a further 100 basis points or so over the following year.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	105
the rba index of commodity prices was around its levels at the beginning of the year, despite the decline in the price of iron ore.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	35
measures of consumer sentiment had declined over recent months, but consumers' views on their personal financial situation, which historically have had a stronger link to consumption, had been little changed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	839
in light of these considerations and turning to the policy decision, members agreed that a further increase in interest rates was warranted.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	537
the accounts confirmed that conditions varied considerably across sectors, with manufacturing output having been flat over the first three quarters of 2010, in contrast to solid rises in output in the mining sector and of some professional services.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	495
these firms' access to finance had been tightened over the course of 2018 as a result of earlier measures by the authorities to reduce risks in the financial system by restricting the availability of ‘shadow finance’.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	979
in considering the level of interest rates, members noted that the three increases in the cash rate late in 2009, together with the widening in the margins between the cash rate and many lending rates, had meant a material adjustment to the stance of monetary policy.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	271
members discussed the importance of understanding the evolution of demographic factors and foreign demand for interpreting developments in housing markets across states.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	8
members concurred that the appropriate course was to set policy as required by the most likely outcome, and to be ready to respond to other outcomes if they eventuated.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	737
the latest set of indicators suggested that gdp was likely to have fallen again in the march quarter.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	523
members were briefed on credit conditions, which continued to improve for both us and european corporates in october.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	968
while members judged that lower interest rates were supporting the economy through the usual transmission channels (including a lower exchange rate, higher asset prices and higher cash flows for borrowers), they recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	279
this was most notable for households and less so for large businesses.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	853
the slightly softer outlook for economic activity overall was expected to affect the labour market.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	899
members noted that market functioning in sovereign bond markets had improved significantly, as had conditions in key money markets.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	282
the vaccination program would assist with containment of the virus and longer-term economic recovery.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	758
in view of this, members acknowledged the importance of a strong relationship between the bank and other regulators, particularly apra.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	375
the authorities in brazil and thailand had increased taxes on capital inflows, while the introduction of capital controls was being considered in korea, indonesia and south africa.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	937
while overall conditions had eased relative to 2015, some indicators had strengthened over the previous few months.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	92
the us share market rose early in november but declined later in the month following the release of softer than expected economic data.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	371
in the month of february, the participation rate had declined a little and the unemployment rate had fallen back to 5.8 per cent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	190
they noted the staff estimate of growth in australia's trading partners in the june quarter of around ½ per cent, and about 4 per cent over the year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	546
members noted that most model-based estimates of the currency generally placed a large weight on the terms of trade.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	804
a key question was whether the necessary adjustment was occurring at an overall pace of growth that kept the economy close to trend and inflation close to target.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	325
but total provision of credit to the business sector had nevertheless accelerated.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	568
members judged that the level of aggregate demand was still above the level of aggregate supply.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	404
the outlook for non-mining business investment had improved further and the pick-up in public infrastructure investment was also supporting overall growth.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	352
over time, however, real incomes would be affected by higher prices and rises in interest rates; falling housing prices would dampen consumption as well as dwelling investment.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	866
the board would continue to monitor both how the global economy evolved and the course of domestic economic activity and prices.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	208
while the yield on 3-year ags had remained consistent with the target, it had been a little higher than 25 basis points over the preceding weeks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	679
the difficulty the fed had in getting cash to flow to the institutions most in need, despite the actual fed funds rate being well below target, led it on 17 august to cut the discount rate from 100 basis points to 50 basis points above the fed funds target rate.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	145
members noted that housing markets had strengthened further, with prices continuing to increase in all major markets.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	567
quarterly gdp growth was expected to be around ½ per cent, supported by a strong recovery in resource exports from earlier supply disruptions.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	793
mining investment had remained subdued despite the strength in commodity prices; however, a modest increase was expected over the forecast period, owing to sustaining investment for some major iron ore and energy projects, as well as increased exploration and production for some metals and minerals.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	6
on balance, with growth expected to remain below trend for longer and inflation to remain within the target even with the effects of a lower exchange rate, members concluded that a lower level of the cash rate would better contribute to achieving sustainable growth in demand consistent with the inflation target.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	329
retail deposit rates had also increased, but by a smaller amount.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	857
the wage price index for the private sector increased by 0.9 per cent in the march quarter, to be 3.7 per cent higher over the year; growth of public-sector wages slowed a little in the quarter and was running at 3.1 per cent in year-ended terms.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	653
this effect alone was expected to lower australian gdp growth by around ½ percentage point in the march quarter.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	612
the board remains committed to the 3-year australian government bond yield target of 10 basis points.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	104
wages growth had picked up significantly over the preceding year or so.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	21
over the previous five years, most of the growth in business investment had occurred in victoria and new south wales.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	517
headline cpi inflation had increased to 3.5 per cent over the year to the december quarter, largely reflecting higher fuel prices, higher prices for newly constructed homes and disruptions to supply chains (including for imported durable goods).	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	514
while the stock of unsold new houses was falling, it remained well above the average of the past two decades.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	69
despite dwelling prices declining relative to incomes and rises in rental yields, forward-looking indicators implied little prospect of an imminent recovery in housing construction.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	165
members noted that output growth was expected to pick up gradually from its below-average pace over the past year to exceed 3 per cent in 2017.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	301
yields on 10-year australian government securities (ags) had declined relative to 10-year government bond yields in other advanced countries in anticipation of the bank's bond purchase program.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	648
should the cash rate be reduced to 25 basis points, the interest rate on es balances would be zero.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	66
the new payments platform was highlighted for its capability to deliver more than 19 million covid-19 support payments in recent months, providing immediate value and mostly on weekends.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	680
the staff's revised central forecast for gdp growth was broadly similar to that at the time of the august statement on monetary policy.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,010	900
this included the effect of fixed interest rate loans rolling off over time.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	450
on the assumption that these structural changes would persist, but that the investment-to-output ratios for other industries would return to their long-run averages, this suggested there were some upside risks to the bank's forecasts for growth in non-mining business investment over the medium term.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	68
outside western australia, business failure rates had declined.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	700
in contrast, the non-resources business sector generally showed little sign of financial difficulties.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	483
the exchange rate had also declined somewhat from the very high levels of a few months ago.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	729
financial market pricing implied that the australian cash rate was expected to remain unchanged for a considerable period, with some expectation of a decrease by late 2019.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	734
most advanced economies were growing at above-trend rates and their labour markets had continued to tighten.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	58

the monthly cpi indicator for headline inflation had moderated to 7.4 per cent over the year (from 8.4 per cent in december).

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

549

overall business conditions had increased in the june quarter, according to the nab survey, and were around previously recorded peaks labour market data had continued to be strong.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

476

members noted that food and energy make up a relatively large share of chinese households' consumption and that recent disease- and weather-related supply problems are likely to result in further increases in food prices.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

663

members noted that there was considerable uncertainty around the timing and extent of the expected increase in household consumption growth and non-mining business investment.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

820

the announcement of this had little effect on interest rates on bank debt, though a scarcity premium on guaranteed issues saw spreads on guaranteed debt decline a little.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

736

the argument for an increase of 25 basis points was that a sequence of 25 basis point moves represented a steady approach to withdrawing monetary policy stimulus and that this was appropriate in an uncertain environment.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

867

members concluded their discussion of international economic conditions by taking stock of upside and downside risks to the global outlook.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

32

members noted that the strength in the housing market and data on retail sales, for example, indicated that household consumption growth was likely to have picked up a little from the pace recorded in recent quarters.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,014

990

conditions in the labour market were expected to ease further over the coming year or so, to levels consistent with sustained full employment.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

676

mining investment was expected to increase over the forecast period as mining firms invest to maintain production; this outlook was supported by mining firms' profitability having remained strong.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

234

the inflation data for the december quarter had been in line with the forecasts presented in the november statement on monetary policy.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

833

project completions were expected to support further growth in resource exports, particularly iron ore and liquefied natural gas (lng).

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

892

off-balance sheet financing had continued to decline, reflecting the authorities' efforts to discourage riskier forms of financing.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

472

members recognised that the calibration of this guidance was not precise or straightforward.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,017

201

spare capacity had continued to be absorbed, especially in the major advanced economies.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

745

indicators of domestic demand across advanced economies had been mixed.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

678

recent indicators suggested that the australian economy had been expanding at a below-trend pace.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,013

959

members recalled that the wage price index had risen by 4 per cent over the year to the june quarter, which indicated no acceleration in wages.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

710

meeting this condition will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it was at the time of the meeting.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

159

domestically, the increase in gdp growth in the june quarter confirmed that some of the weakness in the previous quarter had been temporary and was consistent with expectations that growth would increase gradually over the coming year, supported by the current stance of monetary policy.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

368

growth in business and dwelling investment had been stronger than expected, supported by targeted fiscal measures.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

185

this was a significant increase over such a period and much of the effect of it was still to be seen.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,008

728

thereafter, they were expected to drift lower, reflecting the effect of the expected slowing in world gdp growth.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

735

the chinese renminbi had depreciated further, to be around 5 per cent lower in trade-weighted terms than earlier in the year.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

492

translating estimates of the neutral rate to a nominal interest rate involves adding inflation expectations.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

505

this was partly because many workers had maintained attachment to their employers while on reduced or zero hours in states affected by lockdowns.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

168

variable mortgage rates had declined broadly in line with the reductions in the cash rate in june and july.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

38

private sector financing conditions had tightened a little in most advanced economies since the previous meeting.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

101

members noted that conditions in the established housing market had continued to vary across the country.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

233

australian share prices declined in october to be little changed from the beginning of 2016.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

266

current market pricing did not indicate any expectation of a change in monetary policy at this meeting.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

470

activity in china had rebounded in may following the relaxation of covid-19-related mobility restrictions and in response to ongoing policy stimulus.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

688

members noted that the shift from cash to electronic payments is further advanced in australia than in a number of other countries.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

707

demand had, until then, been sustained by very strong growth in real gross domestic income, which had been boosted by the strong rise in the terms of trade.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

278

this slowing had been broad-based across states and industries, and was particularly pronounced in the household services and retail sectors.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

570

information from liaison suggested employment intentions had remained weak in the residential construction sector but positive among services firms.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

670

members noted that the cost of borrowing us dollars in money markets had fallen a little in october following the implementation of new regulations for us money market funds.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

675

a month earlier, members had noted that there were some tentative signs that chinese growth might be stabilising at a more sustainable pace.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

144

the people's bank of china raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points late in december and had also increased the reserve ratios of banks twice over the past two months.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

918

the reduced flow of new arrivals to australia was also affecting some markets.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

141

members agreed that it would be important to reassess the economic outlook in february 2020, when the bank would prepare updated forecasts.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

263

share prices in japan had not been as strong as elsewhere, and had shown little change since the start of the year after the sharp increases in the previous two years.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

128

longer term government bond yields had declined in most economies over the prior month, driven by the decline in longer term policy rate expectations amid signs that inflation may have peaked and the weakening economic outlook.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

607

members also agreed that, while less accommodative monetary policy would, all else equal, see lower housing prices and credit growth, it would result in fewer jobs and lower wages growth, which would in turn create further distance from the goals of monetary policy – namely, full employment and inflation sustainably within the target range.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

108

market pricing suggested that the federal funds rate was expected to decline by a further 100 basis points or so over the following year.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

105

the rba index of commodity prices was around its levels at the beginning of the year, despite the decline in the price of iron ore.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

35

measures of consumer sentiment had declined over recent months, but consumers' views on their personal financial situation, which historically have had a stronger link to consumption, had been little changed.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

839

in light of these considerations and turning to the policy decision, members agreed that a further increase in interest rates was warranted.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

537

the accounts confirmed that conditions varied considerably across sectors, with manufacturing output having been flat over the first three quarters of 2010, in contrast to solid rises in output in the mining sector and of some professional services.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

495

these firms' access to finance had been tightened over the course of 2018 as a result of earlier measures by the authorities to reduce risks in the financial system by restricting the availability of ‘shadow finance’.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

979

in considering the level of interest rates, members noted that the three increases in the cash rate late in 2009, together with the widening in the margins between the cash rate and many lending rates, had meant a material adjustment to the stance of monetary policy.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

271

members discussed the importance of understanding the evolution of demographic factors and foreign demand for interpreting developments in housing markets across states.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

8

members concurred that the appropriate course was to set policy as required by the most likely outcome, and to be ready to respond to other outcomes if they eventuated.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

737

the latest set of indicators suggested that gdp was likely to have fallen again in the march quarter.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

523

members were briefed on credit conditions, which continued to improve for both us and european corporates in october.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

968

while members judged that lower interest rates were supporting the economy through the usual transmission channels (including a lower exchange rate, higher asset prices and higher cash flows for borrowers), they recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,019

279

this was most notable for households and less so for large businesses.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

853

the slightly softer outlook for economic activity overall was expected to affect the labour market.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

899

members noted that market functioning in sovereign bond markets had improved significantly, as had conditions in key money markets.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

282

the vaccination program would assist with containment of the virus and longer-term economic recovery.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

758

in view of this, members acknowledged the importance of a strong relationship between the bank and other regulators, particularly apra.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

375

the authorities in brazil and thailand had increased taxes on capital inflows, while the introduction of capital controls was being considered in korea, indonesia and south africa.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

937

while overall conditions had eased relative to 2015, some indicators had strengthened over the previous few months.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

92

the us share market rose early in november but declined later in the month following the release of softer than expected economic data.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

371

in the month of february, the participation rate had declined a little and the unemployment rate had fallen back to 5.8 per cent.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

190

they noted the staff estimate of growth in australia's trading partners in the june quarter of around ½ per cent, and about 4 per cent over the year.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

546

members noted that most model-based estimates of the currency generally placed a large weight on the terms of trade.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

804

a key question was whether the necessary adjustment was occurring at an overall pace of growth that kept the economy close to trend and inflation close to target.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

325

but total provision of credit to the business sector had nevertheless accelerated.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

568

members judged that the level of aggregate demand was still above the level of aggregate supply.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

404

the outlook for non-mining business investment had improved further and the pick-up in public infrastructure investment was also supporting overall growth.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

352

over time, however, real incomes would be affected by higher prices and rises in interest rates; falling housing prices would dampen consumption as well as dwelling investment.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

866

the board would continue to monitor both how the global economy evolved and the course of domestic economic activity and prices.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

208

while the yield on 3-year ags had remained consistent with the target, it had been a little higher than 25 basis points over the preceding weeks.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

679

the difficulty the fed had in getting cash to flow to the institutions most in need, despite the actual fed funds rate being well below target, led it on 17 august to cut the discount rate from 100 basis points to 50 basis points above the fed funds target rate.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

145

members noted that housing markets had strengthened further, with prices continuing to increase in all major markets.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

567

quarterly gdp growth was expected to be around ½ per cent, supported by a strong recovery in resource exports from earlier supply disruptions.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

793

mining investment had remained subdued despite the strength in commodity prices; however, a modest increase was expected over the forecast period, owing to sustaining investment for some major iron ore and energy projects, as well as increased exploration and production for some metals and minerals.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

6

on balance, with growth expected to remain below trend for longer and inflation to remain within the target even with the effects of a lower exchange rate, members concluded that a lower level of the cash rate would better contribute to achieving sustainable growth in demand consistent with the inflation target.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

329

retail deposit rates had also increased, but by a smaller amount.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

857

the wage price index for the private sector increased by 0.9 per cent in the march quarter, to be 3.7 per cent higher over the year; growth of public-sector wages slowed a little in the quarter and was running at 3.1 per cent in year-ended terms.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

653

this effect alone was expected to lower australian gdp growth by around ½ percentage point in the march quarter.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

612

the board remains committed to the 3-year australian government bond yield target of 10 basis points.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

104

wages growth had picked up significantly over the preceding year or so.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

21

over the previous five years, most of the growth in business investment had occurred in victoria and new south wales.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

517

headline cpi inflation had increased to 3.5 per cent over the year to the december quarter, largely reflecting higher fuel prices, higher prices for newly constructed homes and disruptions to supply chains (including for imported durable goods).

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

514

while the stock of unsold new houses was falling, it remained well above the average of the past two decades.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

69

despite dwelling prices declining relative to incomes and rises in rental yields, forward-looking indicators implied little prospect of an imminent recovery in housing construction.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

165

members noted that output growth was expected to pick up gradually from its below-average pace over the past year to exceed 3 per cent in 2017.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

301

yields on 10-year australian government securities (ags) had declined relative to 10-year government bond yields in other advanced countries in anticipation of the bank's bond purchase program.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

648

should the cash rate be reduced to 25 basis points, the interest rate on es balances would be zero.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,020

66

the new payments platform was highlighted for its capability to deliver more than 19 million covid-19 support payments in recent months, providing immediate value and mostly on weekends.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

680

the staff's revised central forecast for gdp growth was broadly similar to that at the time of the august statement on monetary policy.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,010

900

this included the effect of fixed interest rate loans rolling off over time.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

450

on the assumption that these structural changes would persist, but that the investment-to-output ratios for other industries would return to their long-run averages, this suggested there were some upside risks to the bank's forecasts for growth in non-mining business investment over the medium term.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

68

outside western australia, business failure rates had declined.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

700

in contrast, the non-resources business sector generally showed little sign of financial difficulties.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

483

the exchange rate had also declined somewhat from the very high levels of a few months ago.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

729

financial market pricing implied that the australian cash rate was expected to remain unchanged for a considerable period, with some expectation of a decrease by late 2019.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

734

most advanced economies were growing at above-trend rates and their labour markets had continued to tighten.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

58