gtfintechlab/reserve_bank_of_australia · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 42 446	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the price of oil had increased by around 70 per cent since recent lows and this had occurred alongside ongoing speculation about potential caps to opec production and signs that oil production in the united states was likely to decline.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	157
indeed, market pricing pointed to around a 40 per cent chance of one further rate increase in 2024, with reductions in the cash rate seen as likely in 2025.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	269
more timely payroll data suggested the number of jobs in the weeks up to early august had declined a little, with a notable drop in jobs in victoria.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	336
the bank had injected substantial liquidity into the financial system through its daily open market operations to support credit and maintain low funding costs in the economy.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	586
iron ore prices had declined in response to expectations of lower near-term demand.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	908
as a result, the saving ratio had declined further, although it remained well above the level it had been over much of the past 25 years.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	14
with growth expected to be close to trend and inflation consistent with the target, the board considered that this setting was appropriate for the overall macroeconomic outlook.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	582
the abs capital expenditure survey also indicated that non-mining business investment had been little changed over the past couple of years.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	293
the rate of core inflation fell back in may after a large increase in april owing to the rise in the consumption tax rate.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	34
members also noted data on domestic migration in australia showing that the population flow from capital cities to regional areas had picked up.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	706
members noted that these observations meant there remained a risk that output growth slows more sharply than expected; if so, it would bring inflation back to target more quickly than expected.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	326
banks' overall funding costs were at historically low levels.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	886
however, the australian equity market had declined, with share prices for some companies falling in response to profit warnings.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	682
members noted that the measured unemployment rate would be a less useful indicator of labour market underutilisation over coming months compared with hours-based measures.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	931
apart from the japanese share market, which had shown little net change in 2006 following the sharp rise in 2005, most other countries' share markets had risen by 10–15 per cent this year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	181
members began their discussion on financial markets with the observation that most markets had been relatively steady over the past month, despite uncertainty about fiscal negotiations in the united states and the greek bailout package.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	80
while the unemployment rate remained around the low levels of the preceding year, broader measures of labour underutilisation had increased a little and a range of indicators suggested the labour market was at a turning point.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	497
despite weak reported retail sales conditions generally, on a slightly more positive note some contacts in the bank's liaison program had reported a mild pick-up in retail sales since july.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	63
this was consistent with the staff’s assessment that aggregate demand remains above the economy’s supply potential.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	79
these indicators had suggested that the ongoing recovery in labour market conditions could be broadly sufficient to offset the job losses arising after the end of the jobkeeper program.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	406
this was considered unlikely for as long as substantial spare capacity remained in labour markets and wages growth remained subdued.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	786
the united states was the main exception, with relatively firm growth in real incomes and consumption underpinning robust economic growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	311
australian banks had been very active, and had benefitted from strong demand for their bonds.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	986
term premia for sovereign debt and exchange rate volatility also remained low in the major markets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	821
for the non-mining sector, the abs survey of firms' capital expenditure intentions had been revised slightly higher and continued to imply modest growth in non-mining business investment over the course of 2014/15.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	33
fiscal outcomes were also diverging, with the latest imf forecasts showing a significant upward revision to the expected debt/gdp ratio in greece, which was now forecast to rise to around 190 per cent partly as a result of the weaker economy.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	296
members observed that inflation in australia had moderated, with both headline and underlying inflation lower in the december quarter 2023 than had been expected three months prior.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	62
members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by noting that the global economy had continued to recover from the largest contraction in decades, supported by a substantial fiscal and monetary policy response and the easing of measures to contain the virus in some countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	211
however, the wpi measure including bonuses implied that private-sector wage growth had been little changed for the past two years.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	339
this meant that average outstanding mortgage rates had declined by around 65 basis points since the middle of the year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	542
leading indicators of labour demand had softened a bit further, suggesting modest near-term employment growth was likely.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	56
members discussed two other risks to global financial stability, outside of china, that were relevant to australia.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	396
the us dollar depreciated on a trade-weighted basis over the past month, particularly following the downward revision of the federal open market committee's policy rate expectations.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	768
members noted that this combination of factors posed downside risks.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	628
in most of the major markets, bond yields had remained close to historic lows.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	764
in considering the stance of monetary policy, members noted that recent data had provided more confidence that global growth was rising and that the pick-up was broadly based across both developed and emerging economies.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	545
risks related to some international political developments had also increased over the preceding six months, although markets had generally reacted in an orderly manner so far.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	340
however, a sustained decline in inflation was expected in 2023, as global supply-side issues continue to be resolved, the recent declines in commodity prices work their way through to consumer prices and growth in demand slows.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	742
members noted that translating the data from the capital expenditure survey into national accounts estimates of business investment was challenging because firms tended to increase their expectations for capital expenditure over time.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	30
a few central banks, including the bank of korea, norges bank and the reserve bank of new zealand, had already increased their policy rates.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	657
nevertheless, credit conditions for some borrowers had remained tighter than they had been for some time following the strengthening of lending policies and practices over recent years.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	241
a key ongoing uncertainty was the possibility that the slowing in the chinese property market would have larger-than-expected ripple effects throughout the broader economy.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	324
higher energy prices, alongside the strong recovery in global demand and ongoing capacity constraints in the goods sector, had contributed to this development.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	725
overall, however, total credit growth had picked up towards the end of 2007.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	449
turning to developments in the household sector, members noted that growth in household consumption had increased in the september quarter to be close to its decade average in year-ended terms.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	407
these had fallen considerably over the past year.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,008	53
after peaking in the september quarter, australia's terms of trade fell by almost 5 per cent in the december quarter 2011, owing to declines in bulk commodity prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	200
after declining in july, the value of retail sales rose in august and september, but was unchanged in october.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	97
global equity prices had recovered to around the peak reached in april, but prices of financial stocks remained well below that level.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	150
consistent with this, growth in household credit had remained well below the average rate of recent years, and housing loan approvals had fallen in january and february.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	194
the largest downward revisions for growth among advanced economies were for the united states, where many forecasters expected a shallow recession.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	747
members observed that, after abstracting from the effects of the earlier natural disasters, growth over the year had been close to trend.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	310
members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the following meeting, recognising that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	7
labour market conditions were again strong in may.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	805
weakness in retail sales over the past year was concentrated in the smaller retailers, but these data were less reliable than previously, owing to reduced sampling.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,008	390
the outlook for 2010 was also slightly stronger.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,009	245
there had also been a large decline in the price of domestic holiday travel and accommodation, partly reflecting subdued demand in parts of that industry.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	18
prices of resource stocks were still noticeably below the peak in may, whereas prices of financial and industrial company stocks had mostly recovered the may peaks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	341
there had been a large amount of domestic issuance as well.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	286
the tightening of monetary policy since may 2022 was still permeating through the economy and it would take some time for the full effects of this to be observed in the data.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	461
members observed that financing conditions for corporations had improved.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	656
members noted that it was not clear which assets the chinese authorities had sold as part of the recent intervention nor which assets were being bought by those taking capital out of china, but given the potential size of these flows, their effects on asset markets could be large.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	363
growth in credit extended to investors in housing had also strengthened from low levels.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	940
the one-notch ratings downgrade by moody's of australia's four major banks had had no effect on banks' bond spreads, mainly because the downgrade had been expected for some time.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	649
recent indicators suggested that dwelling investment had continued to grow strongly, particularly for higher-density dwellings.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	15
equity markets in the advanced economies had been little changed in march, having previously rebounded from their sharp fall in late 2018.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	342
members noted that there were also other signs that the rate of contraction in the us economy had slowed, with the ism surveys of business conditions in the manufacturing and other sectors showing some improvement.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	798
while consumption had held up so far, the higher interest rates and high inflation were putting pressure on household budgets at a time when housing prices were also falling.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	873
government bond yields in the major countries had increased from their recent lows, following safe-haven buying by investors during august, and had returned to the range that they had traded in for the past few years.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	123
survey data indicate that much of australian household debt is owed by higher-income and middle-aged people, who tend to have more stable employment and often larger savings buffers.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	906
expectations for policy tightening had increased.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	722
while there had been additional evidence of the coming strong pick-up in investment in the resources sector, activity remained quite subdued in some other important parts of the economy, partly reflecting the board's earlier actions as well as the appreciation of the exchange rate.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	110
members noted that a full set of updated forecasts will be published in november following the release of the september quarter cpi.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,022	31
this was consistent with both the ongoing increase in iron ore supply and further weakening of the chinese property market, which is an important source of demand for steel.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	664
members noted that the first $100 billion phase of the bond purchase program was scheduled to be completed in early april.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	720
although headline inflation had continued to decline as energy prices fell and food price inflation eased, members noted that core inflation had remained sticky and shown little sign of easing.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	521
consumption growth had strengthened, though this probably reflected, in part, the government payments made over recent months.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	175
members also observed the trade-offs that could be considered in the design of any future scheme.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	392
year-ended growth in the wpi had picked up compared with the previous year across most industries and in all states and territories.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	817
in response to mounting concerns about developers pausing or abandoning development projects, the chinese authorities had put in place a number of measures to support the completion of projects.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	953
as a result of the strong growth in output, measures of productivity had increased by almost 3 per cent over the year to the june quarter, well above average productivity growth in recent years.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	328
commodity prices had remained high in recent months.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	126
upward revisions to earlier data meant that nationwide housing prices were only slightly below their april 2022 peak.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	4
members noted the uncertainty around the outlook and that the monthly meetings provided the board with frequent opportunities to assess how these uncertainties were being resolved and to adjust policy if needed.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	889
they emphasised that, as this decision was an operational one, it had no implications for the stance of monetary policy, nor did it have a bearing on the board’s current approach to bond holdings acquired during the pandemic.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	989
members were informed that, measured by the change in the terms of trade over the past five years, australia had received a larger income gain than any other comparable country, even before taking this year's projected increase into account.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	726
measures of core inflation had also drifted downwards, and were now a little below medium-term targets in a number of the advanced economies.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	414
housing credit growth had slowed further and the rate of credit card debt repayment had picked up.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	965
members noted, however, that this did not change the bank's assessment of how inflationary pressures were likely to evolve in the forecast period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	661
however, for the lower-income economies in the region, growth remained close to long-run averages.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	9
equity prices had generally declined but remained higher than at the start of the year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	197
conditions in established housing markets in sydney and melbourne remained robust, but housing prices had been falling in perth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	435
the question to be addressed at that time would be whether the interest rates faced by borrowers as a result of the combination of policy action and market developments would exert sufficient restraint to contain inflation over the medium term.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	553
large falls in chinese equity prices had occurred again more recently, resulting in cumulative falls from recent peaks being back around 30 per cent, although equity prices remained 70 per cent higher than a year earlier.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	887
new figures in a month's time would help clarify the situation.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,007	160
the latest imf and private-sector forecasts were suggesting that growth in both the developed and emerging economies in 2009 would be significantly lower than thought only a few months earlier.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	637
guy debelle (assistant governor, financial markets), christopher kent (assistant governor, economic), jonathan kearns (head, economic analysis department), anthony dickman (secretary), peter stebbing (deputy secretary) sentiment in global financial markets deteriorated in may, as political uncertainty in greece and growing concerns about the fiscal and banking problems in spain added to the pessimism surrounding the outlook for the euro area.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	950
inflation was still declining towards the target and the recent information did not materially alter its trajectory.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	799
the australian government budget included additional transfer payments, including to low-income households, to help address cost-of-living pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	88
inflation in market-based services had remained steady, which was consistent with a lack of wage pressures in the economy.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	487

the price of oil had increased by around 70 per cent since recent lows and this had occurred alongside ongoing speculation about potential caps to opec production and signs that oil production in the united states was likely to decline.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

157

indeed, market pricing pointed to around a 40 per cent chance of one further rate increase in 2024, with reductions in the cash rate seen as likely in 2025.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

269

more timely payroll data suggested the number of jobs in the weeks up to early august had declined a little, with a notable drop in jobs in victoria.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

336

the bank had injected substantial liquidity into the financial system through its daily open market operations to support credit and maintain low funding costs in the economy.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

586

iron ore prices had declined in response to expectations of lower near-term demand.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

908

as a result, the saving ratio had declined further, although it remained well above the level it had been over much of the past 25 years.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

14

with growth expected to be close to trend and inflation consistent with the target, the board considered that this setting was appropriate for the overall macroeconomic outlook.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

582

the abs capital expenditure survey also indicated that non-mining business investment had been little changed over the past couple of years.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

293

the rate of core inflation fell back in may after a large increase in april owing to the rise in the consumption tax rate.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

34

members also noted data on domestic migration in australia showing that the population flow from capital cities to regional areas had picked up.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

706

members noted that these observations meant there remained a risk that output growth slows more sharply than expected; if so, it would bring inflation back to target more quickly than expected.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

326

banks' overall funding costs were at historically low levels.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

886

however, the australian equity market had declined, with share prices for some companies falling in response to profit warnings.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

682

members noted that the measured unemployment rate would be a less useful indicator of labour market underutilisation over coming months compared with hours-based measures.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

931

apart from the japanese share market, which had shown little net change in 2006 following the sharp rise in 2005, most other countries' share markets had risen by 10–15 per cent this year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,006

181

members began their discussion on financial markets with the observation that most markets had been relatively steady over the past month, despite uncertainty about fiscal negotiations in the united states and the greek bailout package.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

80

while the unemployment rate remained around the low levels of the preceding year, broader measures of labour underutilisation had increased a little and a range of indicators suggested the labour market was at a turning point.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

497

despite weak reported retail sales conditions generally, on a slightly more positive note some contacts in the bank's liaison program had reported a mild pick-up in retail sales since july.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

63

this was consistent with the staff’s assessment that aggregate demand remains above the economy’s supply potential.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

79

these indicators had suggested that the ongoing recovery in labour market conditions could be broadly sufficient to offset the job losses arising after the end of the jobkeeper program.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

406

this was considered unlikely for as long as substantial spare capacity remained in labour markets and wages growth remained subdued.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

786

the united states was the main exception, with relatively firm growth in real incomes and consumption underpinning robust economic growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

311

australian banks had been very active, and had benefitted from strong demand for their bonds.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

986

term premia for sovereign debt and exchange rate volatility also remained low in the major markets.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

821

for the non-mining sector, the abs survey of firms' capital expenditure intentions had been revised slightly higher and continued to imply modest growth in non-mining business investment over the course of 2014/15.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

33

fiscal outcomes were also diverging, with the latest imf forecasts showing a significant upward revision to the expected debt/gdp ratio in greece, which was now forecast to rise to around 190 per cent partly as a result of the weaker economy.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

296

members observed that inflation in australia had moderated, with both headline and underlying inflation lower in the december quarter 2023 than had been expected three months prior.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

62

members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by noting that the global economy had continued to recover from the largest contraction in decades, supported by a substantial fiscal and monetary policy response and the easing of measures to contain the virus in some countries.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

211

however, the wpi measure including bonuses implied that private-sector wage growth had been little changed for the past two years.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

339

this meant that average outstanding mortgage rates had declined by around 65 basis points since the middle of the year.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

542

leading indicators of labour demand had softened a bit further, suggesting modest near-term employment growth was likely.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

56

members discussed two other risks to global financial stability, outside of china, that were relevant to australia.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

396

the us dollar depreciated on a trade-weighted basis over the past month, particularly following the downward revision of the federal open market committee's policy rate expectations.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

768

members noted that this combination of factors posed downside risks.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

628

in most of the major markets, bond yields had remained close to historic lows.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

764

in considering the stance of monetary policy, members noted that recent data had provided more confidence that global growth was rising and that the pick-up was broadly based across both developed and emerging economies.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

545

risks related to some international political developments had also increased over the preceding six months, although markets had generally reacted in an orderly manner so far.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

340

however, a sustained decline in inflation was expected in 2023, as global supply-side issues continue to be resolved, the recent declines in commodity prices work their way through to consumer prices and growth in demand slows.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

742

members noted that translating the data from the capital expenditure survey into national accounts estimates of business investment was challenging because firms tended to increase their expectations for capital expenditure over time.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

30

a few central banks, including the bank of korea, norges bank and the reserve bank of new zealand, had already increased their policy rates.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

657

nevertheless, credit conditions for some borrowers had remained tighter than they had been for some time following the strengthening of lending policies and practices over recent years.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

241

a key ongoing uncertainty was the possibility that the slowing in the chinese property market would have larger-than-expected ripple effects throughout the broader economy.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

324

higher energy prices, alongside the strong recovery in global demand and ongoing capacity constraints in the goods sector, had contributed to this development.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

725

overall, however, total credit growth had picked up towards the end of 2007.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

449

turning to developments in the household sector, members noted that growth in household consumption had increased in the september quarter to be close to its decade average in year-ended terms.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

407

these had fallen considerably over the past year.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,008

53

after peaking in the september quarter, australia's terms of trade fell by almost 5 per cent in the december quarter 2011, owing to declines in bulk commodity prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

200

after declining in july, the value of retail sales rose in august and september, but was unchanged in october.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

97

global equity prices had recovered to around the peak reached in april, but prices of financial stocks remained well below that level.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

150

consistent with this, growth in household credit had remained well below the average rate of recent years, and housing loan approvals had fallen in january and february.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

194

the largest downward revisions for growth among advanced economies were for the united states, where many forecasters expected a shallow recession.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

747

members observed that, after abstracting from the effects of the earlier natural disasters, growth over the year had been close to trend.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

310

members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the following meeting, recognising that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

7

labour market conditions were again strong in may.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

805

weakness in retail sales over the past year was concentrated in the smaller retailers, but these data were less reliable than previously, owing to reduced sampling.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,008

390

the outlook for 2010 was also slightly stronger.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,009

245

there had also been a large decline in the price of domestic holiday travel and accommodation, partly reflecting subdued demand in parts of that industry.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

18

prices of resource stocks were still noticeably below the peak in may, whereas prices of financial and industrial company stocks had mostly recovered the may peaks.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

341

there had been a large amount of domestic issuance as well.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,008

286

the tightening of monetary policy since may 2022 was still permeating through the economy and it would take some time for the full effects of this to be observed in the data.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

461

members observed that financing conditions for corporations had improved.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

656

members noted that it was not clear which assets the chinese authorities had sold as part of the recent intervention nor which assets were being bought by those taking capital out of china, but given the potential size of these flows, their effects on asset markets could be large.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

363

growth in credit extended to investors in housing had also strengthened from low levels.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

940

the one-notch ratings downgrade by moody's of australia's four major banks had had no effect on banks' bond spreads, mainly because the downgrade had been expected for some time.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

649

recent indicators suggested that dwelling investment had continued to grow strongly, particularly for higher-density dwellings.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

15

equity markets in the advanced economies had been little changed in march, having previously rebounded from their sharp fall in late 2018.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

342

members noted that there were also other signs that the rate of contraction in the us economy had slowed, with the ism surveys of business conditions in the manufacturing and other sectors showing some improvement.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

798

while consumption had held up so far, the higher interest rates and high inflation were putting pressure on household budgets at a time when housing prices were also falling.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

873

government bond yields in the major countries had increased from their recent lows, following safe-haven buying by investors during august, and had returned to the range that they had traded in for the past few years.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

123

survey data indicate that much of australian household debt is owed by higher-income and middle-aged people, who tend to have more stable employment and often larger savings buffers.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

906

expectations for policy tightening had increased.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

722

while there had been additional evidence of the coming strong pick-up in investment in the resources sector, activity remained quite subdued in some other important parts of the economy, partly reflecting the board's earlier actions as well as the appreciation of the exchange rate.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

110

members noted that a full set of updated forecasts will be published in november following the release of the september quarter cpi.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,022

31

this was consistent with both the ongoing increase in iron ore supply and further weakening of the chinese property market, which is an important source of demand for steel.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

664

members noted that the first $100 billion phase of the bond purchase program was scheduled to be completed in early april.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

720

although headline inflation had continued to decline as energy prices fell and food price inflation eased, members noted that core inflation had remained sticky and shown little sign of easing.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

521

consumption growth had strengthened, though this probably reflected, in part, the government payments made over recent months.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

175

members also observed the trade-offs that could be considered in the design of any future scheme.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

392

year-ended growth in the wpi had picked up compared with the previous year across most industries and in all states and territories.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

817

in response to mounting concerns about developers pausing or abandoning development projects, the chinese authorities had put in place a number of measures to support the completion of projects.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

953

as a result of the strong growth in output, measures of productivity had increased by almost 3 per cent over the year to the june quarter, well above average productivity growth in recent years.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

328

commodity prices had remained high in recent months.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,006

126

upward revisions to earlier data meant that nationwide housing prices were only slightly below their april 2022 peak.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

4

members noted the uncertainty around the outlook and that the monthly meetings provided the board with frequent opportunities to assess how these uncertainties were being resolved and to adjust policy if needed.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

889

they emphasised that, as this decision was an operational one, it had no implications for the stance of monetary policy, nor did it have a bearing on the board’s current approach to bond holdings acquired during the pandemic.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

989

members were informed that, measured by the change in the terms of trade over the past five years, australia had received a larger income gain than any other comparable country, even before taking this year's projected increase into account.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

726

measures of core inflation had also drifted downwards, and were now a little below medium-term targets in a number of the advanced economies.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

414

housing credit growth had slowed further and the rate of credit card debt repayment had picked up.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

965

members noted, however, that this did not change the bank's assessment of how inflationary pressures were likely to evolve in the forecast period.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

661

however, for the lower-income economies in the region, growth remained close to long-run averages.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

9

equity prices had generally declined but remained higher than at the start of the year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

197

conditions in established housing markets in sydney and melbourne remained robust, but housing prices had been falling in perth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

435

the question to be addressed at that time would be whether the interest rates faced by borrowers as a result of the combination of policy action and market developments would exert sufficient restraint to contain inflation over the medium term.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

553

large falls in chinese equity prices had occurred again more recently, resulting in cumulative falls from recent peaks being back around 30 per cent, although equity prices remained 70 per cent higher than a year earlier.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

887

new figures in a month's time would help clarify the situation.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,007

160

the latest imf and private-sector forecasts were suggesting that growth in both the developed and emerging economies in 2009 would be significantly lower than thought only a few months earlier.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

637

guy debelle (assistant governor, financial markets), christopher kent (assistant governor, economic), jonathan kearns (head, economic analysis department), anthony dickman (secretary), peter stebbing (deputy secretary) sentiment in global financial markets deteriorated in may, as political uncertainty in greece and growing concerns about the fiscal and banking problems in spain added to the pessimism surrounding the outlook for the euro area.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

950

inflation was still declining towards the target and the recent information did not materially alter its trajectory.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

799

the australian government budget included additional transfer payments, including to low-income households, to help address cost-of-living pressures.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

88

inflation in market-based services had remained steady, which was consistent with a lack of wage pressures in the economy.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

487