gtfintechlab/reserve_bank_of_australia · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 42 446	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
this increase reflected a combination of factors including lower economic growth, lower-than-expected capital gains tax revenue and changes in the timing of some policy measures.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	134
members noted that exposures of australian banks to the fiscally stretched euro area economies were very small.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	522
against this background, the recent improvement in labour market data had been a positive development.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	422
the board remained committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions for a return to full employment in australia and inflation consistent with the 2 to 3 per cent target.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	239
the bank has done this on multiple occasions in the past, notably during the global financial crisis and during a period of pandemic-related stress in march and april 2020.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	996
also, the us dollar and japanese yen had appreciated, while the chinese renminbi had depreciated.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	146
accordingly, members judged the current stance of monetary policy to be consistent with fostering sustainable growth and low inflation, while leaving adequate flexibility to respond to developments as needed over the period ahead.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,009	218
these increases would add about ¼ percentage point to the change in the cpi in each period.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	290
the government had announced a series of measures in response and was still forecasting a small surplus in 2012/13.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,011	783
members commenced their discussion of the global economy with the observation that growth in australia's major trading partners had picked up in the september quarter, driven by an increase in growth in some asian economies following weakness in the previous quarter.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	473
at the same time, wages growth had remained low and there were few indications that wage pressures were building.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	315
members noted that european governments were still looking to craft a full response to their financial problems and that tighter fiscal policy was contributing to weaker near-term growth prospects.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	815
although there had been some improvement in sentiment and activity over recent months, conditions were expected to remain weak, partly reflecting further fiscal consolidation over the balance of the year.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	909
liaison with banks and other lenders suggested that the requirements for more thorough verification of income and expenditure data had led to an increase in loan approval times in 2018, but subsequent investments in people and technology had reduced approval times.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	934
spare capacity in the labour market appeared to have been fully absorbed in japan, the united states and germany, although some spare capacity appeared to remain in other parts of the euro area.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	402
many of these economies are highly integrated into global production chains, which had recently been evident in a sharp pick-up in their exports of electronic items.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	510
growth in total credit in april had remained around the fastest pace of the preceding decade.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	732
there had been very strong demand for the $4 billion of indexed bonds issued by the australian office of financial management (aofm) late in september.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	26
members noted that the german labour market had held up very well over the past two years.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	39
the improved outlook for activity and employment was expected to lift private sector wages growth a little over the forecast period.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	86
limited spare capacity and gas-to-oil substitution in europe and elsewhere were likely to support crude oil prices in the period ahead.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	47
banks were still keenly bidding for deposits across the yield curve.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	807
in contrast to past patterns, most of the private capital flows into australia since the onset of the global financial crisis had been to the non-financial sector, rather than the financial sector (mainly banks), with much of that representing inflows into the resources sector, which had funded the recent high level of investment in that sector.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	957
members observed that, nonetheless, the additional monetary policy stimulus as a result of the bank's package of policy measures announced in november 2020 had contributed to the australian dollar being noticeably lower than it would have been otherwise.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	903
most of the increase in longer term yields reflected higher real yields.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	526
share prices had fallen over the preceding month, reflecting concerns about international trade policy developments, as well as regulatory and company-specific developments in the technology sector.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	933
this meant that gdp was around 1 per cent below its december 2019 level at the end of 2020.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	454
members noted that the recent banking system problems in the united states and switzerland had created stress and volatility in financial markets, especially bond markets.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	606
in considering this month's decision, members recognised that the global economy was experiencing a severe downturn as countries sought to contain the covid-19 outbreak.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	941
while the financial situation in europe remained fragile, the likelihood of an extremely bad outcome seemed to have diminished somewhat over the previous couple of months, partly reflecting actions by the european policymakers.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	298
over the period ahead, new information should allow the board to assess whether the improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether the recent financial turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	702
turnover had also increased to around its highest level in a number of years, with many properties staying on the market for short periods of time.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	142
these measures included closing some unprofitable state-owned firms, restructuring some debt, reducing the size of non-bank financing and reducing non-banks' interactions with banks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	273
housing credit growth had gradually increased, suggesting households had been more willing to borrow.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	943
the european central bank had injected liquidity into the banking system through a one-year repurchase agreement at a fixed rate of 1 per cent, which had prompted a fall in short-term rates of more than 30 basis points in the euro area.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	223
the australian dollar had depreciated by 5 per cent against the us dollar and by 4 per cent on a trade-weighted basis over the past month, taking the exchange rate to around its lowest level since 2009 on both measures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	154
members observed that housing credit growth overall had been steady during the first part of 2017, with slower growth in lending to investors largely offset by a pick-up in the growth of lending to owner-occupiers.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	103
on a year-ended basis, underlying inflation was running at a little below 2½ per cent, the midpoint of the medium-term target.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	724
members acknowledged that the primary response to the covid-19 outbreak was to manage people's health, but that other arms of policy, including monetary and fiscal policy, would play an important role in reducing the economic and financial disruption.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	369
indeed, the strength of deposit growth and the decline in the yield curve saw a reduction in some deposit rates as well as some fixed-term lending rates.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	502
the latest data on the us mortgage market, which related to the september quarter 2007, showed a further large rise in delinquencies on sub-prime loans, to over 16 per cent, as well as a smaller rise in delinquencies on prime loans.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	44
the board's decision to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points at the october meeting had been largely anticipated by the market and did not have a large effect on the yield curve.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	532
members discussed the implications of the outbreak of the delta variant for the bank's bond purchase program.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	106
members noted that economic activity in the first half of 2020 would be significantly affected by the global response to the covid-19 outbreak.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	558
this, together with the €490 billion provided in its first liquidity operation, left european banks well positioned to fund their bond maturities for at least the first half of this year.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	259
the board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 2.85 per cent.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	616
members noted that a range of important questions arose from assessments of the true trend in productivity in the australian economy, including those relating to potential growth and living standards.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	114
market expectations for the future path of the cash rate had shifted up materially since the february meeting.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	795
estimates of the neutral rate tend to be correlated across countries over time, reflecting similar global influences on saving and investment as well as spillovers across borders.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	338
members observed that such pricing was indicative of investors expecting benign economic outcomes.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	155
the banks had also increased their liquid asset holdings and their liquidity coverage ratios were well above the 100 per cent minimum requirement.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	186
global credit market conditions had generally been stable with solid issuance, including by sub-investment-grade issuers in the united states.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	222
residential building approvals had declined further over may and june and were around their lowest levels in six years.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	162
us 10-year bond yields declined by around 25 basis points to 4½ per cent in reaction to weaker us economic data and the fall in the chinese share market.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	862
members observed that the major currencies had changed little since the previous board meeting.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	87
some surveyed firms were reporting a lack of available labour as a constraint on output.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	569
government bond yields had remained very low across advanced economies partly as a result of these purchases and despite strong issuance by governments.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	164
in the united states, the yield curve was now as steep as it had been in previous decades.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	90
it also increased the interest rate on exchange settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3 per cent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	843
nevertheless, employment growth had slowed and hiring intentions pointed to further moderation in coming months.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	945
regarding inflation, it could decline quickly in the face of slower growth and improved supply conditions.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	775
as a result, imports of both commodities had been on an upward trend, and iron ore imports from australia had remained around record highs in recent months.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	762
this was resulting in an upward drift in short-term market rates towards the ecb's policy rate.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	354
the us dollar had appreciated since the start of 2022 in line with the more pronounced rise in us government bond yields compared with those in most advanced economies.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	748
members noted that other signs of weakness in the us economy included the continued decline in housing activity and house prices, and a moderation in consumer spending.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	29
members noted that market expectations for the path of the cash rate implied by money market rates had declined since the july meeting, as had market economists’ expectations.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	840
a sharp increase in fertiliser prices had raised concerns about rationing by farmers, which could depress agricultural output and sustain upward pressure on some food prices in the period ahead.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	544
although residential building approvals had fallen in the september quarter and liaison indicated that pre-sales had become harder to obtain, the large pipeline of work yet to be done was expected to support dwelling investment at a high level over the following year or two.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	287
members observed the heightened uncertainty regarding developments in russia and greece, and that most banks in the major advanced markets, including australia, had relatively little direct exposure to these economies.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	727
in the established housing market, the number of auctions had declined and remained lower than a year earlier, even though auction clearance rates had increased of late (particularly in sydney).	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	703
nevertheless, there were ongoing reports of firms using bonuses and other non-wage incentives to attract and retain labour, within a general environment of subdued wages growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	626
the swiss franc had subsequently traded somewhat below the ceiling.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	446
service exports had been particularly affected given that inbound tourism had essentially ceased as a result of travel restrictions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	207
the united states had proceeded to increase tariffs from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on us$200 billion of imports from china, and china had responded by announcing that tariffs would increase by 5–25 per cent on us$60 billion of us imports from 1 june 2019.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	466
however, members observed that there was considerable uncertainty about the resilience of household consumption and that the squeeze on many households’ finances could result in consumption slowing more sharply than implied by the current forecasts.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	605
this had occurred relatively early in the business cycle and lending rates in many cases would soon be at generational lows.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	75
this was consistent with the economic and financial exposures to greece – apart from the official sector's financial exposure – being quite low.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	16
the unemployment rate had been rising gradually over the past six months.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	428
however, the level of yields on semis had nonetheless fallen to low levels.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	98
the supply disruptions, security concerns in the middle east and speculative excesses that had led to a peak in the oil price of above us$70 per barrel during the middle of 2006 had since been unwinding.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	960
members noted that the household and business sectors in australia had continued to display a relatively prudent approach towards their finances in recent quarters.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	485
one important pre-condition was a restructuring of private-sector holdings of greek debt with a haircut of effectively more than 70 per cent, which was to occur later in the week.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	538
as a result, the exchange rate was offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	572
a risk to the inflation outlook over the medium term was the possibility that price- and wage-setting behaviour would shift, resulting in domestic inflationary pressures becoming more persistent.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	61
although the prospects for a partial trade agreement between the united states and china had improved since the previous meeting, the likelihood of a more comprehensive agreement remained uncertain.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	689
members noted that this appeared to have been mainly due to softening demand from investors in an environment of declining housing prices in some markets, although it was likely that there had also been some reduction in the supply of credit associated with tighter lending standards.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	615
recent indicators had suggested a pause in the recovery in japan.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	976
however, members noted that the new us administration might introduce more restrictive policies on trade and immigration, which would pose significant downside risks to the forecast for global growth.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	260
there had been a large volume of government-guaranteed bank bond issuance around the world in the past few months.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	948
members concluded on balance that the global economy was most likely on a sustained, if modest, recovery path, though it was still too soon to be confident of this assessment.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	518
the pipeline of work already approved or under way was expected to continue supporting dwelling investment around current levels over the subsequent year or so; the peak of apartment completions was expected to occur during this period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	779
members discussed the important role that demand factors had played in slowing the pace of borrowing.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	46
despite wages growth having generally trended higher over the preceding few years, inflation had remained below target in a range of economies.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	527
elsewhere, housing prices had generally increased in recent months.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	377
it was slightly lower over the year in trade-weighted terms.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	5
overall, it appeared that banks' lending standards were being maintained.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	956
members noted that unusual population trends during the pandemic had materially affected national housing market conditions and other parts of the economy, and would continue to do so for some time.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	864
at the time of the meeting, the bank held 34 per cent of outstanding australian government securities and 17 per cent of outstanding securities issued by the states and territories.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	861
wage and price inflation were at much lower levels than over the preceding decade, and, because of inertia in wage- and price-setting practices, it was possible that price pressures could be slow to build even if spare capacity were absorbed more quickly than expected.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	48
taking into account all of the available information, and the need to balance the risks associated with high household debt in a low-inflation environment, the board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	256

this increase reflected a combination of factors including lower economic growth, lower-than-expected capital gains tax revenue and changes in the timing of some policy measures.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

134

members noted that exposures of australian banks to the fiscally stretched euro area economies were very small.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

522

against this background, the recent improvement in labour market data had been a positive development.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

422

the board remained committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions for a return to full employment in australia and inflation consistent with the 2 to 3 per cent target.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

239

the bank has done this on multiple occasions in the past, notably during the global financial crisis and during a period of pandemic-related stress in march and april 2020.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

996

also, the us dollar and japanese yen had appreciated, while the chinese renminbi had depreciated.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

146

accordingly, members judged the current stance of monetary policy to be consistent with fostering sustainable growth and low inflation, while leaving adequate flexibility to respond to developments as needed over the period ahead.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,009

218

these increases would add about ¼ percentage point to the change in the cpi in each period.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,008

290

the government had announced a series of measures in response and was still forecasting a small surplus in 2012/13.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,011

783

members commenced their discussion of the global economy with the observation that growth in australia's major trading partners had picked up in the september quarter, driven by an increase in growth in some asian economies following weakness in the previous quarter.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

473

at the same time, wages growth had remained low and there were few indications that wage pressures were building.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

315

members noted that european governments were still looking to craft a full response to their financial problems and that tighter fiscal policy was contributing to weaker near-term growth prospects.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

815

although there had been some improvement in sentiment and activity over recent months, conditions were expected to remain weak, partly reflecting further fiscal consolidation over the balance of the year.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

909

liaison with banks and other lenders suggested that the requirements for more thorough verification of income and expenditure data had led to an increase in loan approval times in 2018, but subsequent investments in people and technology had reduced approval times.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

934

spare capacity in the labour market appeared to have been fully absorbed in japan, the united states and germany, although some spare capacity appeared to remain in other parts of the euro area.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

402

many of these economies are highly integrated into global production chains, which had recently been evident in a sharp pick-up in their exports of electronic items.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

510

growth in total credit in april had remained around the fastest pace of the preceding decade.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

732

there had been very strong demand for the $4 billion of indexed bonds issued by the australian office of financial management (aofm) late in september.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

26

members noted that the german labour market had held up very well over the past two years.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

39

the improved outlook for activity and employment was expected to lift private sector wages growth a little over the forecast period.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

86

limited spare capacity and gas-to-oil substitution in europe and elsewhere were likely to support crude oil prices in the period ahead.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

47

banks were still keenly bidding for deposits across the yield curve.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,008

807

in contrast to past patterns, most of the private capital flows into australia since the onset of the global financial crisis had been to the non-financial sector, rather than the financial sector (mainly banks), with much of that representing inflows into the resources sector, which had funded the recent high level of investment in that sector.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

957

members observed that, nonetheless, the additional monetary policy stimulus as a result of the bank's package of policy measures announced in november 2020 had contributed to the australian dollar being noticeably lower than it would have been otherwise.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

903

most of the increase in longer term yields reflected higher real yields.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

526

share prices had fallen over the preceding month, reflecting concerns about international trade policy developments, as well as regulatory and company-specific developments in the technology sector.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

933

this meant that gdp was around 1 per cent below its december 2019 level at the end of 2020.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

454

members noted that the recent banking system problems in the united states and switzerland had created stress and volatility in financial markets, especially bond markets.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

606

in considering this month's decision, members recognised that the global economy was experiencing a severe downturn as countries sought to contain the covid-19 outbreak.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

941

while the financial situation in europe remained fragile, the likelihood of an extremely bad outcome seemed to have diminished somewhat over the previous couple of months, partly reflecting actions by the european policymakers.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

298

over the period ahead, new information should allow the board to assess whether the improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether the recent financial turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

702

turnover had also increased to around its highest level in a number of years, with many properties staying on the market for short periods of time.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

142

these measures included closing some unprofitable state-owned firms, restructuring some debt, reducing the size of non-bank financing and reducing non-banks' interactions with banks.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

273

housing credit growth had gradually increased, suggesting households had been more willing to borrow.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

943

the european central bank had injected liquidity into the banking system through a one-year repurchase agreement at a fixed rate of 1 per cent, which had prompted a fall in short-term rates of more than 30 basis points in the euro area.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

223

the australian dollar had depreciated by 5 per cent against the us dollar and by 4 per cent on a trade-weighted basis over the past month, taking the exchange rate to around its lowest level since 2009 on both measures.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

154

members observed that housing credit growth overall had been steady during the first part of 2017, with slower growth in lending to investors largely offset by a pick-up in the growth of lending to owner-occupiers.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

103

on a year-ended basis, underlying inflation was running at a little below 2½ per cent, the midpoint of the medium-term target.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

724

members acknowledged that the primary response to the covid-19 outbreak was to manage people's health, but that other arms of policy, including monetary and fiscal policy, would play an important role in reducing the economic and financial disruption.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

369

indeed, the strength of deposit growth and the decline in the yield curve saw a reduction in some deposit rates as well as some fixed-term lending rates.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

502

the latest data on the us mortgage market, which related to the september quarter 2007, showed a further large rise in delinquencies on sub-prime loans, to over 16 per cent, as well as a smaller rise in delinquencies on prime loans.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

44

the board's decision to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points at the october meeting had been largely anticipated by the market and did not have a large effect on the yield curve.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

532

members discussed the implications of the outbreak of the delta variant for the bank's bond purchase program.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

106

members noted that economic activity in the first half of 2020 would be significantly affected by the global response to the covid-19 outbreak.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

558

this, together with the €490 billion provided in its first liquidity operation, left european banks well positioned to fund their bond maturities for at least the first half of this year.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

259

the board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 2.85 per cent.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

616

members noted that a range of important questions arose from assessments of the true trend in productivity in the australian economy, including those relating to potential growth and living standards.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

114

market expectations for the future path of the cash rate had shifted up materially since the february meeting.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

795

estimates of the neutral rate tend to be correlated across countries over time, reflecting similar global influences on saving and investment as well as spillovers across borders.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

338

members observed that such pricing was indicative of investors expecting benign economic outcomes.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

155

the banks had also increased their liquid asset holdings and their liquidity coverage ratios were well above the 100 per cent minimum requirement.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

186

global credit market conditions had generally been stable with solid issuance, including by sub-investment-grade issuers in the united states.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

222

residential building approvals had declined further over may and june and were around their lowest levels in six years.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

162

us 10-year bond yields declined by around 25 basis points to 4½ per cent in reaction to weaker us economic data and the fall in the chinese share market.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

862

members observed that the major currencies had changed little since the previous board meeting.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

87

some surveyed firms were reporting a lack of available labour as a constraint on output.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

569

government bond yields had remained very low across advanced economies partly as a result of these purchases and despite strong issuance by governments.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

164

in the united states, the yield curve was now as steep as it had been in previous decades.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

90

it also increased the interest rate on exchange settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3 per cent.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

843

nevertheless, employment growth had slowed and hiring intentions pointed to further moderation in coming months.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

945

regarding inflation, it could decline quickly in the face of slower growth and improved supply conditions.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

775

as a result, imports of both commodities had been on an upward trend, and iron ore imports from australia had remained around record highs in recent months.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

762

this was resulting in an upward drift in short-term market rates towards the ecb's policy rate.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

354

the us dollar had appreciated since the start of 2022 in line with the more pronounced rise in us government bond yields compared with those in most advanced economies.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

748

members noted that other signs of weakness in the us economy included the continued decline in housing activity and house prices, and a moderation in consumer spending.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

29

members noted that market expectations for the path of the cash rate implied by money market rates had declined since the july meeting, as had market economists’ expectations.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

840

a sharp increase in fertiliser prices had raised concerns about rationing by farmers, which could depress agricultural output and sustain upward pressure on some food prices in the period ahead.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

544

although residential building approvals had fallen in the september quarter and liaison indicated that pre-sales had become harder to obtain, the large pipeline of work yet to be done was expected to support dwelling investment at a high level over the following year or two.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

287

members observed the heightened uncertainty regarding developments in russia and greece, and that most banks in the major advanced markets, including australia, had relatively little direct exposure to these economies.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

727

in the established housing market, the number of auctions had declined and remained lower than a year earlier, even though auction clearance rates had increased of late (particularly in sydney).

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

703

nevertheless, there were ongoing reports of firms using bonuses and other non-wage incentives to attract and retain labour, within a general environment of subdued wages growth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

626

the swiss franc had subsequently traded somewhat below the ceiling.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

446

service exports had been particularly affected given that inbound tourism had essentially ceased as a result of travel restrictions.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

207

the united states had proceeded to increase tariffs from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on us$200 billion of imports from china, and china had responded by announcing that tariffs would increase by 5–25 per cent on us$60 billion of us imports from 1 june 2019.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

466

however, members observed that there was considerable uncertainty about the resilience of household consumption and that the squeeze on many households’ finances could result in consumption slowing more sharply than implied by the current forecasts.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

605

this had occurred relatively early in the business cycle and lending rates in many cases would soon be at generational lows.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,009

75

this was consistent with the economic and financial exposures to greece – apart from the official sector's financial exposure – being quite low.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

16

the unemployment rate had been rising gradually over the past six months.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

428

however, the level of yields on semis had nonetheless fallen to low levels.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

98

the supply disruptions, security concerns in the middle east and speculative excesses that had led to a peak in the oil price of above us$70 per barrel during the middle of 2006 had since been unwinding.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

960

members noted that the household and business sectors in australia had continued to display a relatively prudent approach towards their finances in recent quarters.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

485

one important pre-condition was a restructuring of private-sector holdings of greek debt with a haircut of effectively more than 70 per cent, which was to occur later in the week.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

538

as a result, the exchange rate was offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

572

a risk to the inflation outlook over the medium term was the possibility that price- and wage-setting behaviour would shift, resulting in domestic inflationary pressures becoming more persistent.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

61

although the prospects for a partial trade agreement between the united states and china had improved since the previous meeting, the likelihood of a more comprehensive agreement remained uncertain.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

689

members noted that this appeared to have been mainly due to softening demand from investors in an environment of declining housing prices in some markets, although it was likely that there had also been some reduction in the supply of credit associated with tighter lending standards.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

615

recent indicators had suggested a pause in the recovery in japan.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

976

however, members noted that the new us administration might introduce more restrictive policies on trade and immigration, which would pose significant downside risks to the forecast for global growth.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

260

there had been a large volume of government-guaranteed bank bond issuance around the world in the past few months.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

948

members concluded on balance that the global economy was most likely on a sustained, if modest, recovery path, though it was still too soon to be confident of this assessment.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

518

the pipeline of work already approved or under way was expected to continue supporting dwelling investment around current levels over the subsequent year or so; the peak of apartment completions was expected to occur during this period.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

779

members discussed the important role that demand factors had played in slowing the pace of borrowing.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

46

despite wages growth having generally trended higher over the preceding few years, inflation had remained below target in a range of economies.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

527

elsewhere, housing prices had generally increased in recent months.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

377

it was slightly lower over the year in trade-weighted terms.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

5

overall, it appeared that banks' lending standards were being maintained.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

956

members noted that unusual population trends during the pandemic had materially affected national housing market conditions and other parts of the economy, and would continue to do so for some time.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

864

at the time of the meeting, the bank held 34 per cent of outstanding australian government securities and 17 per cent of outstanding securities issued by the states and territories.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

861

wage and price inflation were at much lower levels than over the preceding decade, and, because of inertia in wage- and price-setting practices, it was possible that price pressures could be slow to build even if spare capacity were absorbed more quickly than expected.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

48

taking into account all of the available information, and the need to balance the risks associated with high household debt in a low-inflation environment, the board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

256