Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

reserve_bank_of_australia

sentences stringlengths 42 446	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the tightening had flowed through to increased corporate bond spreads; recent bond issuance in china had been weak after a sustained period of strength, although yields had remained low.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	705
reviewing household-sector balance sheets, members noted that generally these remained in good shape, reflecting the favourable macroeconomic environment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	921
nevertheless, with central banks expected to maintain expansionary policy settings and risk premiums generally low, global financial conditions remained accommodative.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	158
turning to the outlook for inflation, members took account of wages growth running at about 4¼ per cent, adjusting for the changed timing of the most recent minimum wage increase, and the fact that capacity utilisation was currently at its highest level on record.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,007	654
the level of corporate debt in china was particularly high for the country's stage of economic development.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	822
consumption had continued to recover in the december quarter despite a decline in household income.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	43
in china, growth in economic activity had slowed in a number of sectors.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	189
domestically, there were significant differences in conditions across sectors, with a considerable degree of structural adjustment occurring in the economy.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	869
as was the case in several other countries, this was the fourth consecutive year of strong returns.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	987
members noted that household incomes continued to be supported by relatively favourable conditions in the labour market.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,012	467
housing prices in perth and apartment prices in brisbane had fallen further.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	257
while this had been largely driven by domestic demand in these economies, reflecting strong economic stimulus, there were also recent signs of a pick-up in their exports.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	658
the level of employment was little changed over the past year, although total hours worked had increased.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	754
a similar development had occurred in countries where resource stocks carried a high weighting in the share market, e.g.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	632
this was prompted by ongoing developments in the international regulatory architecture, where it has become increasingly common for central banks to provide more detailed information on ela arrangements to assist banks in their contingency planning.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	426
members noted that the risks around the wage and price inflation forecasts were evenly balanced.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	288
the revised forecast was for inflation to take a little longer than previously thought to return sustainably to target.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	70
while some of these purchases were retained in euros, a sizeable share was converted into other currencies, including a modest amount in the australian dollar.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	167
government bond yields had declined over the past month to as low as 3.8 per cent in the united states, though more recently they had risen a little from that trough.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	102
nonetheless, the terms of trade were still expected to decline over the following two years, partly reflecting prospective increases in low-cost supplies of bulk commodities.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	250
the overall effect on bank funding costs had been less than the rise in the cost of wholesale debt funding since february, in part because there had been little change in interest rates for retail deposits, which account for around one-third of total bank funding.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	832
the employment-to-population ratio and the participation rate were both around record highs, and measures of spare capacity in the labour market were near their lowest levels in decades.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	916
members noted that the chinese market was the second largest in absolute size in asia, behind japan, but was quite small in international comparative terms relative to gdp.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	763
members observed that conditions in financial markets continued to be characterised by low volatility, notwithstanding the heightened geopolitical tensions in ukraine and gaza, as well as the ongoing uncertainty about the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate in the united states.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	84
members noted that dwelling investment had picked up over the preceding year or so, partly in response to an easing in housing policies in 2015.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	295
the share of firms in the bank's liaison program with wage freezes in place had remained high, and most firms had continued to report limited upward pressure on wages despite anecdotal reports of labour shortages in small segments of the labour market.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	125
however, across the rest of the country, which accounts for around 60 per cent of australia's dwelling stock, housing price growth had declined.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	845
various factors might explain the weak productivity outcomes, including covid-19-related disruptions and strong growth in employment in government-funded services, where achieving productivity increases is often difficult.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	191
as in the financial crises of 2008 and 1998, the renminbi had remained stable, with foreign exchange reserves having declined a little from high levels.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	617
this reflected expectations of a particularly challenging period for earnings growth and capital raising for those industries in the months ahead.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	64
the australian equity market had also shown little net change over the past month, with company earnings announcements broadly in line with expectations.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	709
members noted the strong global competition to supply the chinese market and that australia does not have the same natural comparative advantage in other exports as it has in some resources.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	247
members observed that, in some countries, there appeared to be an adverse cycle whereby fiscal consolidation was weakening growth, which was leading to yet further fiscal tightening in an attempt to meet previously announced deficit targets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	434
low interest rates were working to support demand, although it was difficult to judge the extent to which this would offset the expected substantial decline in mining investment and the effect of planned fiscal consolidation.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	362
the changes in bond yields globally had been associated with higher volatility, though with considerably less spillover to other markets than in march and april 2020.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	215
while measures of asset quality had weakened and expenses for bad and doubtful debts had risen, overall asset quality remained strong by international standards.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	879
this seemed to be mostly due to higher commodity prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	985
these data and reports from liaison with businesses suggested that wages growth was unlikely to pick up in the near future.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	652
wages growth was expected to remain around its recent rate over the forecast period.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	316
the australian government's budget had little effect on financial markets, with sales of commonwealth government securities (cgs) continuing to be well received.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	489
for example, heightened geopolitical tensions had increased the prospect of cyber-attacks that could have systemic implications.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	89
private sector financial conditions had tightened, but remained favourable overall.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	977
unemployment rates in the advanced economies had declined, but the tighter conditions in labour markets had not flowed through to higher growth in wages or broader inflation pressures.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	199
while observing that there were typically lags between labour markets tightening and wage pressures emerging, members noted that the wage data might suggest these economies had more spare capacity than implied by conventional measures.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	277
the currencies of brazil, india and other emerging economies had appreciated from their recent low points, while foreign exchange markets generally were more subdued through october.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	878
the governor proposed that members consider a substantial reduction in the cash rate.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	789
more generally, the northern territory had a relatively young population and high labour market participation rates.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	408
these discussions had also highlighted that weaker demand conditions, including for short-term rental accommodation, were expected to extend the weakness in residential construction.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	865
members commenced their discussion of the domestic economy with a review of the consumer price index (cpi) for the june quarter.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	148
growth in the japanese economy picked up in the march quarter and indicators of activity pointed to continued growth in april.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,013	894
in contrast, growth in prices of administered items and the cost of constructing new dwellings had increased in the june quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	37
growth in output in the united states had continued to be supported by strong growth in consumption, while growth in investment appeared to have slowed further.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	776
with inflation rates in the region trending higher, the authorities were gradually removing monetary stimulus.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	380
the lockdown and other containment measures were expected to remain in place for at least a couple of months in most countries, although there was considerable uncertainty about the extent of this, as well as the variability of the measures across countries.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	851
this had been most evident for spain and italy, where yields on government bonds had risen significantly as foreign investors reduced their exposures by not rolling over maturing debt and selling debt in the secondary market.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	697
total household debt payments as a share of disposable income had increased significantly during the tightening phase.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	814
the run of regular data releases reviewed by the board covered the business, household and housing sectors, the labour market, and prices and wages.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	904
employment had increased in every state since the start of 2017, including solid growth in the mining-exposed states.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	252
members noted that indicators of the domestic economy over the past month had again been better than expected.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	929
overall, recent data and information from liaison were consistent with further recovery in the established housing market and moderate growth in dwelling investment.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,013	611
turning to the immediate decision regarding the level of the cash rate, members noted that gdp growth had been stronger than expected in a number of major economies in the september quarter and that the outlook for global economic conditions had continued to improve.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	500
the board's judgement was that, given the substantial degree of policy stimulus that had been imparted, it was prudent to hold the cash rate steady while continuing to gauge the effects, but not to close off the possibility of reducing it further should that be appropriate to support sustainable growth in economic activity, consistent with the inflation target.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	163
members noted that supply concerns in the iron ore market had eased somewhat, and ongoing strength in chinese steel demand had been met by an increase in iron ore imports.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	280
as had been the case elsewhere around the world, business confidence had fallen noticeably and growth in business credit remained weak.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	942
members noted that this had contributed to a depreciation of the australian dollar, which had declined to around its lowest level in 2021 in us dollar and twi terms, notwithstanding a rise in commodity prices and interest rates in australia relative to other large advanced economies over the year to date.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	596
members noted that australian banks continued to raise funds relatively cheaply, with a recent issue of residential mortgage-backed securities being of record size in the domestic market and occurring at the tightest pricing since the financial crisis.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	604
resource exports appeared to have continued growing in the december quarter and growth was expected to remain strong, particularly as liquefied natural gas (lng) production came on line over the next year or so.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	217
members observed that growth in china had been stronger than expected over 2017, but that investment growth had slowed and conditions in the industrial sector had softened over recent months, partly because of government policies to reduce pollution.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	395
members reviewed a number of issues arising from the repricing of risk, which came after a long period during which risk was widely considered to be underpriced.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	997
the bank had purchased in aggregate around $36 billion of government bonds in secondary markets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	475
members contrasted these measures with the actions taken by the us federal reserve at its june meeting, when it again reduced its asset purchases by a further us$10 billion to us$35 billion per month, down from a peak of us$85 billion per month in 2013.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	203
as a result, spare capacity in the labour markets of these economies was likely to continue to decline.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	850
members assessed that overall labour market conditions nevertheless remained a little tighter than was consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at target.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	963
members discussed the extent to which the cpi data provided a signal about ongoing inflation trends.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	982
in emerging economies, inflation remained uncomfortably high, particularly in india and china.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	445
members noted that the data released since the december meeting suggested that the domestic economy had continued to grow at a below-trend pace over the second half of 2014.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	507
tradables inflation (excluding volatile items and tobacco) had picked up in response to the depreciation of the australian dollar over the past year or so.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	645
employment had increased at an above-average pace over the past year and the unemployment rate had declined.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	196
in the meantime, the expectation that policy might be eased was itself being reflected in a reduced level of market interest rates.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	708
mining investment had continued to fall in the june quarter and now accounted for around 5 per cent of nominal gdp, down from a peak of around 8 per cent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	785
policy settings remained supportive of the recovery and national income had been substantially boosted by the large increases in commodity prices; it was likely that the terms of trade would exceed previous highs.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	423
this suggested that there continued to be excess capacity in the labour market, as did indicators such as the underutilisation rate.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	683
resource shares had fallen in the month, reflecting concern about the possibility of a slowdown in the us and the wider implications that would flow from that, but other sectors of the share market had risen further.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,006	415
financial markets conditions in financial markets had continued to improve over the past couple of months, with sentiment supported by the partial resolution of the fiscal situation in the united states, approval of the revised greek bailout package in december, policy developments in japan and generally better-than-expected economic data globally.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	895
in the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate was forecast to decline to around 4¼ per cent by the end of 2022 and to 4 per cent by the end of 2023, which was lower than previously forecast.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	693
export volumes looked to have recovered somewhat in early 2018, after declining in the december quarter.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	993
as a result, the forecast for the unemployment rate had been revised lower and the forecast for wages growth had been revised slightly higher.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	781
alternatively, in the downside scenario, the unemployment rate would be expected to peak at around 10½ per cent, and decline very gradually to around 9 per cent by the end of the forecast period.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	400
members noted that most lenders had passed on the increase in the cash rate in full to existing variable-rate housing and small business borrowers.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	132
the continuing decline in the outstanding stock of rmbs had seen spreads in the secondary market decline considerably, such that investors were now seeking new issues at prices that were economic for the issuers.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	55
domestically, yields on longer-term australian government securities (ags) had also increased significantly, and the spread between 10-year ags and us treasury yields had widened to around 25 basis points.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	981
members noted that there had been several periods in the preceding decade in which housing prices had fallen, or growth had slowed significantly, in different parts of the country.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	847
the december quarter 2020 national accounts showed that gdp in australia had recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels, whereas gdp was still considerably below pre-pandemic levels in many other countries.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	193
an example was the trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation for the june quarter, which was lowered from 0.9 per cent to 0.7 per cent, bringing the year-ended rate down from 2.7 per cent to 2.5 per cent (though underlying inflation looked slightly higher in history).	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	696
some lenders had reversed some of the tightening in the availability of housing finance that had occurred earlier in the pandemic, which had mostly reflected the application of existing credit standards in the context of weaker economic conditions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	431
in the established housing market, new listings in sydney and melbourne had picked up and prices had levelled off in recent months.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	620
the case to hold the cash rate steady at this meeting was further supported by the need to balance the risks to the inflation forecast with those surrounding the outlook for full employment.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	660
members noted that the domestic economy appeared to be growing at around trend pace in the june quarter, though activity continued to vary significantly across industries.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	388
that said, a number of state governments had offered lump-sum payments to some of their public sector employees, in part to offset higher living costs.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	177
members noted that economic conditions early this year were, on balance, consistent with global economic growth being around average.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	859

End of preview. Expand in Data Studio

Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/reserve_bank_of_australia

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The reserve_bank_of_australia dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}