Datasets:
gtfintechlab
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bank_of_the_republic_colombia

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
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999
in april and may, according to the dane (the national administrative department of statistics), retail sales contracted down to an average annual rate of 1,0% (the first annual fall registered in almost three years).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
265
the government in venezuela decreed a sharp devaluation of the bolívar.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
374
the annual variation in food prices went from -0.3% in december to - 0.5% in january.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
769
as a result, the pace of consumption observed in the second quarter is expected to continue.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
825
2 and 3-year expectations remained below this figure in a slowdown trend.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
715
the forecasts indicate domestic spending will keep growing at a good pace, accompanied by a slower than projected recovery in external demand.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
834
generally, in 2011, significant household consumption growth would have been possible (by duplicating its growth average in the past decade), and a strong acceleration in investment growth.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
417
these levels are still higher than the historical average registered in the country.the reduction in the current account deficit and the slowdown of the colombian economy reflect the adjustment required in the economy due to the negative shock to national income that the country has been facing since 2014.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
730
conversely, if the global environment deteriorates further, central banks in this group of countries could implement better encouragement measures.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
791
this better- than-expected performance is largely the result of the indicator for works and coffee production.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
881
in this context and without inflationary pressures, one can expect the external interest rate to remain low for a prolonged period of time.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
752
as the discussion developed the following points stood out: i) the fall in the pace of price growth over the month which was more than what the market and the bank’s technical work expected; ii) the continuous decline in core inflation indicators and in inflation expectations that are in the target range fixed by the board of directors for the upcoming year; iii) the reduction in price growth was generalized again; iv) the transitory effect the “el niño” phenomenon could have on price growth; v) the improvement in the growth of producer and consumer confidence indicators; vi) the recovery of m3 and especially, liabilities subject to reserve requirement; vii) the financial system portfolio in legal currency which, although it continues to fall, is growing more than the nominal gdp; viii) the issuing of bonds that has complemented the productive sector’s financing; ix) the behavior of the market interest rates in response to the lowering of the bank’s benchmark rate; x) the slowdown in the growth of the venezuelan economy this year and the outlook for 2010; xi) the effect of the exchange rate on inflation and the growth of the product of the tradable sectors; xii) the performance of the interest rates for public debt securities.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
667
the policy rate has been lowered 200 bp since december of 2016, and it is possibly in a position close to neutral.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
880
hikes in external interest rates, higher risk premia and the volatility in international financial markets also influenced this decision.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
187
on the supply side, the sectors that grew the most were industry and financial services, while mining was the only one that is contracted.the figures available for retail and industry to april show a better performance of the economy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
535
furthermore, the agreements and measures directed towards solving the public debt and financial system problems have not had the expected impact so far.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
195
the monetary and fiscal policy actions taken so far are expected to contribute to strengthening this trend    financial variablesbank loans (n/ and f/c) in august registered an annual growth rate of 13.9%, which is slightly higher than what was seen the month before (13.8%).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
356
they also stated that they do not consider the adjustment of domestic demand and growth to be excessive, considering that the current account deficit is still high, for which they believe the behavior of theses variables is part of the adjustment process.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
27
the annual variation in food prices dropped from 5.5% in may to 2.8% in june, largely due to perishable foods and, to a lesser extent, because of the price of grains, oils and other imported foodstuffs.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
555
for example, the regional survey done by the banco de la republica (businessmen from various sectors are included in this) showed a very favorable perception of sales growth in december.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
995
however, additional -19 outbreaks of unknown intensity and duration, as well as uncertain fiscal conditions, make it necessary to consider alternative risk scenarios that, should they materialize, would instead point to growth between 3.6% and 5.2%.total annual inflation and inflation excluding food and regulated items fell less than projected by the technical staff and market analysts, registering 1.51% and 0.94% through march, respectively.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
99
as for demand, household consumption continues to increase and confidence has recovered.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
882
this represents a better-than-expected behavior of national income during this period, and means that there was a decline in the external vulnerability of the economy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
504
moreover, expectations within the business community (industrialists and merchants) regarding the performance of the economy in the coming months remained relatively high.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,010
810
as to the different types of lending, most of the momentum centered on commercial loans, which posted an annual increase of 19.6% during the first week of may, as opposed to 17% in march.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
452
in addition, a migration from national production to sales of imported goods can be seen, especially clothing, shoes, and manufactured leather products.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,012
602
the consumption credit behavior suggests that households are increasing their degree of indebtedness in a significant manner.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
631
exports to the united states have maintained their momentum, registering an increase of 54%, largely due to sales of petroleum and derivatives.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
410
this would continue driving the recovery in the country's terms of trade and the positive effects on national income.this report assumes three additional increases in the fed's benchmark interest rate during 2018; consequently, the rate would move within the range of 2.25% to 2.50% at the end of the year.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
321
some emerging market economies are benefitting from the recovery in commodity prices, and countries such as china and korea are showing signs of recovery.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
28
in the united states, real activity indicators have continued to expand, though the last information available evidences some slowdown signs.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
951
it is important to point out that there have been considerable discrepancies between dane’s series and those released by andi, specifically with respect to year-to-date growth rates and trends.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
630
the above mentioned indicators with information up to the third quarter confirmed the forecast given in the last report on inflation when an annual expansion of the economy was projected to be between 6% and 7% for that period.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
898
with respect to the cpi without foods, its annual variation remained virtually stable at 2.75% resulting from a rise in the non-tradable component and a fall in tradable and regulated items.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
456
(vii) in november, there was a pause in the moderate growth bank loans (n/ and f/c) have seen.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
447
once again, electrical power rates dropped sharply.there were no significant changes in the core inflation indicators during march.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
499
added to this is the major downward adjustment in perishable food and non-tradable inflation, excluding food and regulated prices, and the possible adverse effects the us recession and the world crisis might have on colombia’s economic growth, apart from the uncertainty surrounding the fate and sustainability of developments in the venezuelan economy.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
436
this average has been fluctuating between 3.00% and 3.15% since november last year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
772
finally, it reiterated that monetary policy will depend on new information as it becomes available.bogotá,
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
644
in january 2009, the annual decline in total imports was 5.2%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
213
however, recent weeks have seen a significant reduction in interest rates on home mortgages.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
220
in the euro zone, in turn, the weakening of productive activity was generalized and, with the exception of france, the largest economies contracted in the last quarter of 2011.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
11
a number of indicators confirm the slowdown in the u economy.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
806
the reading of the latest data is positive, particularly observing the evolution of the different core inflation indicators, which have stood around 3.0%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
249
in their opinion, the risks of excessive deceleration and persistence of inflation have risen simultaneously, increasing the uncertainty about the pace at which further reductions to the interest rates should take place.one member of the board voted in favor of maintaining the benchmark interest rate unaltered.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
482
all inflation expectations also declined.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,012
389
however, in the last few days there has been a slight uptick due to some law and order problems in lybia.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,013
746
in the financial system, loan portfolio growth continued to slow.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
121
in march and the beginning of april, the mortgage portfolio continued growing at a suitable rate (18.6% nominal) and the consumer portfolio maintained a slow recovery with an annual increase of 4.6%.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
952
based on this, it is probable that the terms of trade will stay at favorable levels.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
231
meanwhile, the real interest rate on preferential commercial loans was 6.2%, as opposed to 27.4%, for credit card lending, and 5.8% for treasury loans.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
129
information on other activities such as oil, coffee and cement production suggests good behaviors.as for the labor market, the figures to march 2015 show that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate continues at historically low levels, with a dynamic occupation rate which is explained mainly by salaried employment.in april, total corporate and household debt grew at a lower pace than the one registered in the first quarter, but greater than the nominal gdp increase estimated for the present year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
36
similarly, the merchants surveyed by fenalco maintained the positive trend in current sales, although sales expectations at six months showed some deterioration.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
76
in may, annual producer price inflation (ppi) was 1.3%, as opposed to an annual variation of 0.3% in april.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
41
thus, they considered that economic growth in 2019 will be very close to 3.5%.vis-à-visthe previous board meeting, international liquidity has tended to improve.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
479
likewise, other categories relating to house cleaning, hygiene and wardrobe have started showing some rises.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
387
economic growth is also expected to continue becoming stronger partly driven by the investment in construction of buildings and public works.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
96
in addition, households in january continued to have a real interest rate for consumption that is lower than the average has been since 1998.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
463
the colombia peso, in particular, has appreciated around 8% so far this year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
360
an extension from two to three weeks in the reserve calculation for the end of the year.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
609
the annual change in the cpi for tradables excluding food and regulated items (1.6% annually), in turn, rose 4 bp with respect to the previous month.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
618
with the recent increases in the benchmark interest rate, the market rates are expected to approach their historical averages more rapidly and inflation expectations to converge towards the -point of the target range.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
871
another member of the board also considered it appropriate to raise the bank’s benchmark rate by 25 basis points in order to ensure a positive level in real terms.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
971
something similar occurred with the corresponding 24-month expectation that went from 4.5% to 4.0%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
82
available indicators for the third quarter show that performance not live up to expectations and tended to decline.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
3
the core inflation indicators also showed no major changes in february.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
552
in terms of origin, all of them declined: industrial exports -21.7%, mining exports -16.2% and agricultural exports -7.2%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
355
the rate on mortgage loans was 12.1%, which is 11bp less than what is was in december.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
19
in the eurozone, although production came to a halt in the first quarter of the year, it nevertheless was higher than expected by the analysts and the bank’s technical team.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
551
this is similar to the rate observed at the start of the year and more than the increase during 2007.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
557
this decision also incorporates the possibility of detecting a substantial change in foreign economic conditions on time and reacting to them rapidly.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
468
reverse-repo auctions through remunerated deposits not subject to reserve requirements will be closed temporarily as of monday, october 27.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
474
(iv) it must be stressed that the monetary policy adopted by the board since april 2006 has proved on account of its results that it has moved in the right direction.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
343
nevertheless, recent information makes it evident that the economy is expanding at a favorable rate.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
228
future decisions by the board will be determined according to new information available.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,023
332
economic conditions in europe continue to deteriorate.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
2
the lower percentage registered with respect to august was due to the downward pressure from perishables, non-tradable excluding food and regulated prices and from regulated prices.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
166
it was also higher than the data from october last year and than the average calculated since 2001.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,012
641
finally one board member proposed that macro-prudential measures be applied to speed up the transmission of monetary policy to demand based on the present evaluation of the balance of these risks, the board of directors decided to raise the benchmark interest rate of the banco de la republica by 25 basis points.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
484
according to its statement, this decision was reached due to the increased uncertainty in the international outlook and lower-than-expected inflationary pressures.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
651
the slowdown in external borrowing continued during march and april.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
782
the rise in inflation, primarily due to higher food prices as a result of the weather, will be temporary.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
854
vis-à-vis the previous report, the forecast suggests a more dynamic domestic demand with a faster closing of the output gap.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
902
the directors agree that the restrictive monetary policy stance has fulfilled its objective of reducing excess spending in the economy, which, exacerbated by the multiple and persistent supply shocks that occurred since the pandemic, unleashed the strongest inflationary spiral the country has undergone since the adoption of the target inflation policy at the end of 1999.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
1
on the other hand, construction of works and buildings is still an item surrounded by a great deal of uncertainty in terms of how it will perform, particularly with respect to spending on works, construction and buildings.total exports in 2012 (excluding re-exports of airplanes) came to us$ 60,235 million, which represents 5.8% growth compared to 2011.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
923
the mortgage loan portfolio is growing at a good pace along with another increase in the new-house price index in march which remains at historically high levels.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
958
the measurements done through surveys show less pronounced increases.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
809
annual inflation in non-tradables, excluding food and regulated prices, stayed at 4.7% in june.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
180
this posture is justified by the negative effects of external productive and financial shocks on aggregate demand and somewhat by the precarious recovery in some of the confidence and expectation indicators.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
874
while the contraction in europe persists, a rapid recovery in productive activity is ongoing in japan.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
346
with respect to the emerging market economies, most of the central banks have not changed their intervention rates.the risk premiums of the latin american countries have remained relatively stable due to currently good conditions in the region.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
856
as a result of the increase in arrears of mortgage credit and seizure of housing, the prices of housing continued to reduce in april and could continue doing so in the following trimesters.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
765
there were also few adjustments in the prices of products like oil and this could be due more to the appreciation of the peso than to movements in international prices which have not declined.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
975
likewise, with the information from the fedesarrollo survey, the signals on industrial performance are not positive.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
643
it also was emphasized that the outlook for the world economy remains negative.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
800
the annual change in the ipi excluding coffee threshing was 2.8% for the month of february.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
188
as long as this does not happen, the greater financing needs of the industrialized economies could generate a rise in world interest rates.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
671
less of an adjustment in banking services and stability in annual rental inflation were important factors in this respect.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
471
to july, the information from dane on foreign trade suggests that the trade deficit would continue to adjust.in july, the terms of trade (foreign trade methodology) were close to the average of 2015.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
533
this is the result of no growth in the euro area during the second quarter and a sharper slowdown than expected in several countries of the region.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
113