Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_the_republic_colombia

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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999
although over the course of the year (january-july) they have plunged 19.2% annually, the levels are above those for the same period in 2007.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
157
the average for the four indicators that are monitored by the banco de la república was 2.49% compared to 2.59% in january.the annual change in the ppi remained in negative territory at -2.47% in february, which is 4 bp more that what was registered in january.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
269
the final domestic demand grew at an annual rhythm of 5.4% during the first trimester, which implied a slowdown against what was observed in 2007, yet still over the historic average.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
336
mr. óscar iván zuluaga, minister of finance and public credit mr. josé darío uribe, governor, banco de la república mr. fernando tenjo mr. carlos gustavo cano mr. juan josé echavarría mr. juan mario laserna mr. leonardo villar inflation, economic growth and their outlook for the future were discussed and monetary-policy decisions were reached.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,008
586
the information at hand confirms there is every indication at the beginning of 2013 that the recession in europe would be more prolonged.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
908
this was mainly due to the performance of regulated and food prices.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
14
(vi) the real repo interest rate in colombia is below its historical average but the same thing is happening in the majority of the countries around the world.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
582
the slowdown occurred in both the group of imported goods and the one of locally produced and consumed goods growth the latest indicators of economic activity for the third quarter of 2011 confirmed that the annual growth rate for the economy surged in comparison to what had been seen in the first half of the year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
293
the average of the four core inflation indicators (5.74%) also continues to fall.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
34
in the case of china, the reduction in growth was accentuated by monetary policy measures intended to lessen internal demand as a way to prevent inflationary pressures.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
706
the fall in quantity came from the lower foreign sales of coffee (-21%) and flowers (-19%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
326
for the year elapsed as of august, the cpi accumulated a 2.64% increase, this being a little higher than the one recorded in the same period of the previous year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
886
particularly, annual growth for consumption goods imports was 21%, for intermediate goods was 29%, and for capital goods was 46%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
682
on the other hand, inflation expectations derived from the tes yield curve exhibited less change and stayed within a range of 2.3% to 3.1% for different horizons    growththe economic indicators for the second quarter suggest gdp growth will exceed the rate on record for the first three months of the year.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
931
the performance described is in line with what is contemplated in the september inflation report where there is a range of output growth for the entire year that is between 5% and 6% financial variables total loans in national (nc) and foreign (fc) currency are maintaining high rates of growth.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
181
the following is a summary of the principal topics addressed during the meeting annual consumer inflation in july was 2.24%, which is 1 bp less than in june.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
80
they noted the slowdown in the rise of core inflation and the reduction seen in inflation expectations as the peso appreciated, despite increases in gasoline prices that exert upward pressure on the regulated items component of the consumer basket.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
497
factors such as the greater growth of the world economy, the improvements in agents’ confidence and the momentum of various leading indicators show the strength of the growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
63
thus, even though the terms of trade for november are lower than those seen at the beginning of the year, they are still historically high and contribute to the support of colombia’s income.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
79
however, some of the factors that have generated oversupply of oil continue, and inventories remain high.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
406
however, decisions on spending cuts in social security and defense, as well as the definition of certain federal budget items, were postponed until march.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
786
specifically, the weak job market and the restrictions on bank loans could tone down the recovery in consumption and investment during the coming quarters.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
311
however, the tendency in the broadest measure of the money supply (m3) experienced no major changes, and annual growth in m3 by the end of the first six months of the year came to 16%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
986
the monetary policy actions undertaken so far, which consider these effects, should strengthen convergence of inflation to its target  and optionsthe members of the board agreed that the information published since the previous meeting of the board of directors shows that deterioration of the productive activity has been more pronounced than had been anticipated.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
821
the bank's technical staff continues to forecast gdp growth for 2013 at 3.0% to 5.0%, with 4.3% being the most likely figure.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
33
(v)  for 2013, the technical team forecasts between 2.5% and 4.5% economic growth, with 4% being the most likely figure.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
296
on the other side, the annual growth of the aggregated demand to march was 6.7%, facing 11.1% of the fourth trimester of 2007 and 10.3% in all of last year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
62
finally, the consumer confidence index (cci) published by shows higher levels in april and may than those observed in the first three months of 2013, and is above the historical average for the series (since 2001).as for the indicators associated with supply, the signals were mixed.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
211
non-tradable inflation, without food and regulated prices, was 5.36%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
339
the dtf rate was 5.04% on august 14, 2008, which is 28 bp less than a month earlier and 515 bp less than on december 19, 2008.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
542
therefore, they ratify that decisions will depend on the information available at a given moment in time.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
56
in view of that fact and the weak forecast for growth, no major inflationary pressure is anticipated for the coming quarters.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
396
on the other hand, expected total consumption is 15% higher than that observed for 2019.according to the most recent data, employment levels are significantly higher than those that preceded the pandemic and have been on the rise for all sectors, especially the formal sector.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
768
the recovery in the consumer confidence index in september not offset the declines registered during the two previous months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
628
in the last few months, household credit has slowed, but keeps increasing at rates that exceed inflation and growth of nominal gdp.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
764
for example interest rates for consumers are still historically low, and consumer lending is growing at high rates (20.5% average nominal rate for april), with a tendency to accelerate.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
545
in a globalized economy, there are multiple channels for contagion as the experience from the crisis in 2009 demonstrated.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
340
(ii) the rising trend witnessed in terms of trade up to 2011 was interrupted in 2012, the year when terms of trade remained stable.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
742
likewise, in june a reduction of 3.74% to 3.2%) was seen in the annual variation in the cpi for the non-tradables without foods and regulated items; it can be attributed in good part to a high comparison basis.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
30
the risks of the international crisis over the financing of the balance of payments constitute an additional argument to be cautious in the adoption of the monetary policy.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
657
although this fall is due to comparing the current record with past year’s high levels, also some stagnation in the indicator can be seen.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
241
up to the third quarter, imports of capital goods showed high expansion rates which implied the favorable performance of the investment in transportation equipment, machinery and equipment.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
324
in the case of imported food, recoveries in the prices for soybeans, corn, and wheat have been seen in the last few weeks.inflation in the main developed economies, in turn, remained at a relatively low level.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
725
recent developments in inflationin february, annual consumer inflation (2.32%) registered a surge of 19 basis points (bp) compared to what was registered in january.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
449
production of coffee continues to expand at favorable rates.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
407
liabilities subject to reserve requirements (lsr) performed similarly.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
53
these premiums could be affected by the particularly vulnerable situation in several countries of the eastern europe.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
200
(ii) in contrast, the strength of private (4%) and public (4.8%) consumption in the third quarter was similar to what had been seen in the second and a little better than had been expected.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
97
as has been the case for several months, the minor adjustments in food prices are largely responsible for this result.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
150
(iii) extremely low interest rates for too long a period of time ultimately can pose a risk to financial stability, the sustainability of growth and future inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
194
as per basic product prices, industrial activity deceleration worldwide has slowed down the demand for these goods in such a way, that in the past few weeks a decrease has been seen in the international quotation of prices for some, particularly oil, copper and coal.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
747
in the case of the united states federal reserve, the cutbacks in monthly purchases of assets remained in line with what was expected by the market and the first increase in the benchmark rate is expected to occur towards -2015.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
310
this revision is due, in part, to the performance of the world economy and private spending, which have been weaker than anticipated.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
7
in the united states, the indicators showed stability.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
805
cumulative inflation was 1.98% for the year-to-date at october.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
390
according to information from the colombian motor vehicle committee, the rate at which those sales rose in february was high as well (10%).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
245
the production of cement and shipments, in turn, surged between the second and third quarters.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
18
as occurred throughout the year, the slowdown in inflation was explained, yet again, by less of an increase in the cpi for regulated items and food.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
341
(iii) the consecutive, early increase in the bank’s interest rates contributes to keeping inflation within the target range and reduces the risk of financial imbalances that later lead to an unnecessary volatility in the interest rates, output and employment.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
286
in attendance were mr. juan carlos echeverry, minister of finance and public credit, mr. josé darío uribe, governor and managing director of banco de la república, and full-time co-directors messrs. carlos gustavo cano, juan josé echavarría, fernando tenjo, juan pablo zárate and césar vallejo.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,012
461
this is corroborated by expectations within the business community, which are still relatively high.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
656
annual appreciation, the stability or decline in international prices, and a good agricultural supply explain this behavior.inflation expectations continued to fall in december and early january.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
363
a regular meeting of the board of directors of banco de la república took place in the city of bogotá on wednesday, august 31, 2016.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,016
940
this plan was well-received by the markets, boosting agents’ confidence.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
649
(vi) annual inflation (2.27%) in september remained stable with respect to the month before and the same was true of the average of the core inflation measurements.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
15
in contrast, the credit card loans are above their average foreign contextin the last few months, global activity has continued recovering mainly in the developed economies and to a lesser degree in some emerging countries in asia.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
342
the annual increase in the price of tradables, excluding food and regulated goods and services, dropped from 1.9% in november to 1.4% in december.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
798
in both cases, the latest data shows levels that are lower than what their potential is estimated to be.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
873
most of the core inflation indicators dropped faster than at the beginning of the year or at the end of 2008.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
123
the latter were 3.4% for different horizons.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,012
906
in this group, the main contribution to the slowdown originated with perishable foods, reversing part of the upward shock caused by the first wave of winter weather.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
722
a look at the different types of loans shows mortgage lending was the most dynamic, having gone from 14.6% annual growth in september to an annual rate of 18.3% for the year to date in january.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
110
these prospects, together with trade tensions between the us and china in the context of very low inflationary pressures, have determined that major central banks continue to pursue a broadly expansionary monetary policy.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
31
the slowdown in the mortgage portfolio, in turn, has been less accentuated with variation rates of 16.4% and 15.6% in the same period.the real interest rates (discounting the cpi excluding food) for the october disbursements for consumer, mortgage, and ordinary and preferential commercial loans were at 15.6%, 9.9%, 9.0%, and 5.6% respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
664
inflation excluding food remained stable (2.9%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
720
however, some upward pressures on inflation in the first part of 2019 are not ruled out, associated with the transitory effects of a weakel niñoand the estimated impact of the increase in the minimum wage.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
521
this, among its multiple benefits, would contribute to increasing tax revenues and strengthening the country's public finances.with today's decision, the board continues with growth-enhancing policy rate cuts while maintaining a policy stance in line with the objective of driving inflation to its target by -2025.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
175
in the area of supply, the construction sector will have been the main source of growth, followed by agriculture, mining and commerce.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
392
for 2013, growth similar to that of 2012 is projected financial variables total credit in national and foreign currencies (“mn” and “me” credit) recorded in june an annual increase of 17.15%, this percentage being lower by 53 bp in the previous month and 254 bp in the previous quarter.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
817
in june, exports in dollars grew 54% annually, a figure that is higher than the one registered in may (34%).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
953
the highlights in terms of the response by may include the prime lending rate (-238 bp), the mortgage rate (-203 bp) (partly due to government backing for home purchases), the ordinary commercial rate (-201 bp) and the rate for home construction (-190 bp), following by reductions in the consumer loan rate (-177 bp), microcredit (-174 bp) and the rate on credit card lending (-134 bp).interest rates also declined in real terms, but to a lesser extent, due to the effect of the slump in inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
328
(iii) the government announced a budget cut for 2008 of col$1.5 trillion, which is equivalent to 0.4% of the gnp and one of whose fundamental objectives is to alleviate the pressure over the monetary policy derived from the increase of inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
126
moreover, the deterioration of the economic and financial situation in europe, and the effects this may have on world demand, may continue to be a limiting factor to their exports.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
4
as a matter of fact, the price rise for food was 6.63% in contrast with 1.69% and 1.64% during the same period in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
889
el niño has intensified, increasing the risk of further increases in food and energy prices.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
989
exchange rate depreciation has been greater in the emerging economies that have large current account deficits financed with short-term foreign borrowing and high inflation rates.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
726
the sharpest decline was in lending rates, primarily those for retail (92 b), preferred (72 b) and ordinary credit (49 b).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
414
the most recent information for europe continues to show a slow recovery, despite the build-up in germany and england.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
965
the annual growth rate for this variable went from 15.12% to 15.10% between october 2012 and january 2013.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
661
price indices for new and used housing are at their maximums.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
9
specifically, while germany is expanding at a favorable rate, some weakening of productive activity can be seen in france.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
197
the favorable performance of household consumption in the fourth quarter of last year was confirmed by the changes in imports and employment in december.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
435
they emphasized that recent inflation data has been at historic lows and anticipated a lower inflation path on the forecast horizon, which would open additional space to support economic recovery through a more expansive policy stance.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
553
nominal growth in the commercial loan portfolio was 18.5% by july 15, having declined with respect to the increase in may and june.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
887
the two (2) remaining board members voted for a 25 bp reduction.bogotá, dupdated: 13:57 technical issues.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
160
while these growth rates represent a substantial deceleration relative to previous years, economic activity levels remain high, and unemployment has reached historic lows amidst robust labor participation rates.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
637
in august, the peso loan portfolio in the financial system maintained a growth rate of 19%, which is similar to what it was in july.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
950
on the supply side, the problems with weather since -2010 and recent political events have contributed to the increase in these prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
799
favorable levels in the terms of trade are also expected although lower than the ones seen in 2013.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
88
at the same time, the annual change in the cpi for tradables excluding food and regulated items stayed at 1.3% in october.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
487