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gtfintechlab
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bank_of_the_republic_colombia

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annual inflation in the price of highly-indexed items remained in the vicinity of 7%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
511
a regular meeting of the board of directors ofbanco de la repúblicatook place in the city of bogotá on tuesday, march 20, 2018.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,018
738
this takes place in an environment of economic activity that would recover, but still with an excess of installed capacity.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
307
on the job market, salaried employment is falling, while so-called “self- employment” continues to grow at a good pace the external context the international financial crisis worsened in september, predominantly in the united states.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
83
however, foreign sales of the country’s leading agricultural products declined at an annual rate of 19.2%, given the drop in exports of coffee and bananas.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
488
in july-august, total imports fell 14.4% on a yearly basis, and so far this year to august they accumulate an 11.8% declinewith the above, it is likely that in the third quarter deficits in the trade balance and current account related to gdp would have accelerated.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
566
in attendance were mauricio cárdenas santamaría, minister of finance and public credit; juan josé echavarría, governor of the central bank; and board members gerardo hernández correa, ana fernanda maiguashca olano, adolfo meisel roca, josé antonio ocampo gaviria, and juan pablo zárate perdomo.these minutes contain a summary of the outlook on the macroeconomic situation by the technical staff of the central bank (section 1), followed by a review of the main discussion regarding monetary policy by the board of directors (section 2).greater detail of the macroeconomic situation prepared by the technical staff atbanco de la repúblicawill be presented in themonetary policy report for june 2018and in thestatistical annex (only available in spanish) contextin this report, the projection of the 2018 average growth of some of the country's main trading partners was maintained, which implies an acceleration compared to 2017.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
317
particularly, it is expected that in 2016 venezuela and brazil register contractions in their product again, while countries such as ecuador, chile, mexico and peru would continue exhibiting lower growth rateswith all the aforesaid, growth for colombia's major trading partners in 2015 would be lower than had been forecast a quarter ago.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
244
the possibly transitory character of the performance of public works projects as well as the limited information available for the second quarter does not permit the consideration of any important change in the growth forecast for 2011.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
713
however, this will also depend on what happens with inflation expectations.one co-director noted that: (a) yearly inflation continued to increase and reached 9.0% in july, the highest in 16 years, having remained for a year and a half above the upper limit of the target range, exceeding it by 125%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
403
they pointed out that the positive behavior of goods prices has contributed to a noticeable decrease in inflation excluding food and regulated items.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
357
in spite of the above, the international markets continue to show a high aversion to risk due to the situation in europe.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
674
the total demand for energy rose 4.4% during may, in annual terms, posting increases compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 and the early months of 2010.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
119
within this basket, the increases in gas, fuel and urban transport service rates continued to exceed the average for the cpi.with respect to the annual change in tradables excluding food and regulated prices, the figure in march was 0.68%, or five (5) bp less than in february.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
72
furthermore, the cpi excluding food has been at the -point of the target range (3.05%, 2.57%, and 3.03% in 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
264
therefore, it is still reasonable to expect good growth in private consumption during the first quarter of 2011.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
914
as a result, their currencies have depreciated and their stock markets underwent devaluations.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
359
thus, special care needs to be taken regarding the extent of monetary policy rate cuts.the director who opted for a 75-bps decrease mostly agreed with the majority group's diagnosis regarding the favorable conditions that support continuing the interest rate cuts initiated in december.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
169
in contrast, the industrial sector (including coffee bean threshing) would be the one that contributed the least to the growth of output.the above makes it possible to maintain a forecast range of 3.8% to 5.2% for the growth of the gdp in the third quarter.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
560
during the same month, exports to venezuela fell 71.5% in annual terms.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
531
the rise in inflation during december was due essentially to the behavior of food and regulated prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
174
this, together with the absence of inflationary pressures, would be postponing the increase in the fed's benchmark interest rate.on the other hand, sovereign risk premia in the region have declined in recent months.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
225
the most important drop in total purchases was in intermediate goods and raw materials acquired in the united states, especially mining and pharmaceutical products.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
575
the sectors that grew the most were agriculture (7.6%) and construction (6.4%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
243
conversely, the groups of tradables (excluding food and regulated items), regulated, processed foods, and meals outside the home pushed annual inflation down.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
589
as for the commercial channel, exports were still growing at a good pace by january, especially those of mining origin.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
556
added to this is the emergence of new inflation pressure originating with high oil and food prices and uncertainty about the future of colombian exports to venezuela.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
677
as for non-tradables, the annual variation was 3.70% as opposed to 3.64% the month before.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
416
venezuela, the most important market for colombian industrial exports, surely will experience serious devaluation this year due to its fiscal and exchange imbalances, and a drop in growth from 5.5% in 2012 to 2.5% in 2013.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,013
893
if this tendency continues it will be especially damaging for commodity exporting countries, as it will affect their terms of trade and, in doing so, their gdp financial variables there were no changes during may in the tendencies of the major monetary aggregates.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
872
in contrast, non-salary costs saw a reduction in january when the significant decline in the annual change in the ppi to 3.7% in comparison to the 5.5% in december is taken into account.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
883
in this projection, both consumption (public and private) as well as investment continue slowing down, partly as a response to the slower dynamics of national income.for 2017, growth of the economy is estimated within a range between 1.5% and 3.5%.in june, yearly consumer inflation increased, reaching 8.60%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
173
there has been no growth in the balance of the loan portfolio in domestic currency during the last eight (8) weeks (15.8% annual growth at the end of february compared to 18.5% in december).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
120
in attendance were mr. mauricio cárdenas santamaría, minister of finance and public credit, mr. josé darío uribe escobar, governor and managing director of banco de la república, and board members carlos gustavo cano sanz, ana fernanda maiguashca olano, adolfo meisel roca, césar vallejo mejía and juan pablo zárate perdomo.these minutes contain a summary of how banco de la república’s technical team views the macroeconomic situation (section 1), followed by a review of the key policy discussion points considered by the board of directors (section 2).a moredetailed description of the macroeconomic situationprepared by the technical staff from the central bank is provided in the data section of the september 2014 edition of the inflation report, as well as in the statistical appendix contextregarding the macroeconomic context, the technical staff highlights the following elements:in the present report, the growth forecast for external demand was reduced for this and the following year, as compared to the estimations from the previous quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
261
as to third quarter, the various available indicators suggest the economy continued to slow, as illustrated by industrial growth figures for the month of august (-8.8%) compared to the same month in 2007 (-0.8% for the year to august).
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
304
if the most likely growth forecasts take place, the output gap could be positive in 2014 and may become slightly negative in the present year (which had previously been estimated as positive).regarding prices, inflation posted at 3.66% in december 2014, a number similar to the forecast by banco de la república's technical staff, and which is 80 basic points (bp) above that of september.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
913
in the last quarter, the greater pace of increase in the prices of foods and regulated goods explained a great percentage of the acceleration of inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
512
this will ensure the monetary authority can continue to use the policy tools at its disposal in a countercyclical way.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
973
in the case of venezuela, annual growth during the first quarter (-5.8%) and the forecast for 2010 as a whole reflect an economy in recession that has cut back drastically on its imports.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
127
the annual difference in prices for non-tradable goods and services, excluding food and regulated items, rose slightly and was 3.42% in february, having been 3.37% in january.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
313
the generalized reduction in price increases compared to other months when reductions were due fundamentally to lower food and regulated prices.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
841
in may, the annual variation of the ppi declined from 1.56% to 0.80%, and kept on declining since the fall commencing last october.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
901
annual inflation in non-tradables, excluding food and regulated prices, declined from 4.5% in november to 4.4% in december.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
349
the orders indicator, based on the same survey, has been at a standstill for several months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
830
for colombia, this should bring about a lower path for risk premia, with a slower convergence to its historical average.the price of oil has exceeded the forecasts made a month ago, largely as a result from the observed and expected supply constraints in the crude oil market.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
156
the annual variation in the prices for non-tradable goods excluding food and regulated prices rose 33 bp and came to 3.83% in june.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
723
given the aforesaid, the panorama of the monetary policy is very diverse.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
322
the same survey shows the willingness to purchase housing and durable goods remains higher than at the start of the year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
687
note that the performance of investment in public works, housing construction, and public consumption is a source of high uncertainty for these forecasts financial variablesbank loans (n/ and f/c) in november registered an annual growth rate of 13.30%, a level which is lower than the one seen the previous month (14.03%).
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
376
this behavior continues to be explained by appreciation in the exchange rate (which came to an annual rate of 4.4% in january for the monthly average) and by scant pressure from international prices.the non-tradable cpi excluding food and regulated items rose marginally during the past month (by 2 bp) and stood at 3.94%.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
573
for what is left of the year and for 2011, substantial changes in their levels are not expected, as a result of which, the terms of trade for countries that are exporters of raw materials like colombia will continue to be favored.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
385
investment without works was the most dynamic component of internal demand, having risen substantially by almost 17% in the second quarter, which is very similar to the rate observed during the first quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
827
in public works, there were large reductions in investment in mining and in highway and other road construction.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
755
interest on the 10-year bond was 8.9%, which is 42 bp more than the rate posted on january 28.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
721
however, earlier this year, several indicators of economic activity and expectations in large economies such as germany, the united states and china, showed signs of recovery and may suggest a moderation in the global slowdown.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
370
they felt that this reduction is consistent with the new information regarding the lower growth of the economy, the reduction in inflation expectations, and the expected path of decline in inflation to reach the 3.0% target in 2018.other board members voted for a 25 bp reduction.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
600
analysts’ average inflation expectations and those calculated based on government bond rates are similar to the inflation target, which is 3%.in short, the economic indicators and economic projections show less output than can be generated with the country’s installed capacity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
255
signs of economic slowdown in latin america were more evident during the last month and a half.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
230
the prices of other commodities have also fallen.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
711
consequently, they concur on the desirability of commencing a process to gradually lower the intervention interest rate as soon as it is prudent.in this particular context, five directors voted to keep the intervention rate steady at its current level of 13.25%, and two directors voted in favor of a 25 basis points reduction that would bring the rate to 13%.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
877
this was due to easter week in march and one day less in february.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,013
964
meanwhile, the emerging economies are still the engine of worldwide growth although they are not free from risk.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
771
additionally, salaried and formal employment have slowed down in recent months.real interest rates continue at a level below their historical averages calculated since 2000 (except for credit cards).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
460
while some countries such as colombia, taiwan, and korea have low declining inflation, others such as brazil, india, and indonesia are showing higher upswings in their price levels.the terms of trade declined in october but remain at high levels.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
111
in addition, the countries on the periphery of the euro zone –greece, portugal and spain– remained stagnant or were shrinking.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
122
the average for the three indicators monitored by the banco de la republica was at 3.34%, which is 7 bp more than the month before.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
345
however, they consider it possible to speed up the pace of interest rate cuts without risking the progress achieved towards lowering inflation.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
634
the variation in the producer price index (ppi) increased at an annual 6.6% rate against 5.2% in august.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
692
however, for the countries which are exporters of raw materials such as those in the region, the inflationary situation is more complex since the fall in the prices will tend to be accompanied by a depreciation of their currencies.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
22
in a context of low inflationary pressures, weak demand and the perception of risk in view of the european situation, monetary authorities in the united states announced they would keep interest rates low until at least 2015.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,012
780
others believe any further increase in the benchmark rate is unnecessary, considering the time it takes monetary policy to have an effect.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
668
for this group, the possibility of leading monetary policy to an expansionary stance will depend on the above-mentioned factors.the remaining two board members considered that the weakness of economic activity deserves an immediate counter-cyclical response, since the output gap is increasing, and the results in terms of inflation have been good and according to the forecasts.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
994
on the contrary, most latin american currencies appreciated last month.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
443
investment in construction would also have continued growing based on the developments in building licenses.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
267
although the increase in inflation expectations has moderated, the levels remain high.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
701
in 2014, the average growth for colombia's trading partners will be above that recorded in 2013 and optionsthe board of directors took the following relevant aspects into consideration:(i) there are no major changes in the outlook for worldwide growth in 2014 with respect to the ones described in the recently published inflation report.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
926
a path of increases strengthens the signal of the board's commitment to inflation targets, allows to better calibrate an optimal response to new external shocks, and makes the movements of the board of directors more predictable for the market, thereby improving the pass-though of monetary policy.the credibility of the monetary authority must be sustained by a consistent and weighted action looking towards the policy horizon.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
170
growth in the colombian economy during the second half of 2010 was less than what was forecast several months back.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
272
this suggests that the conceptual basis of the models usually employed by analysts and by the board itself, usually assuming a process of convergence towards the 3.0% target, could be evolving adversely and could threaten the nature of the target as a nominal anchor as it has been over the years.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
65
with respect to exports, the new results showed an upsurge in foreign sales in dollars.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
151
this slight drop may be associated with the exchange-rate appreciation witnessed since the start of the year.at the same time, non-tradables excluding food and regulated items stayed at 3.7%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
756
the board of directors ofbanco de la repúblicaraised the policy rate by 50 basis points (bp) thus putting it at 3.0% in a 4-3 majority decision at its december 17 session.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
939
this economy had a growth rate of 7.7% in 2013 (the same as the rate in 2012).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
922
the real lending rate approached its historic average (12.3% actual vs. 12.5% average), while the real fixed-term deposit rate (dtf) has reached it already (4.8%) discussion and policy options the board emphasized the following points in its deliberations: continued price increases at a rate that exceeds the targets set by the board of directors; the considerable weight food brings to bear on prices in an international scenario marked by upward pressures; uncertainty about how regulated prices will behave in the future, given the indexation mechanisms used to determine those rates; the major increase in production costs for companies in terms of raw materials and labor; uncertainty about what is in store for the world economy and colombia’s main export markets, particularly venezuela; how recent peso revaluation has affected inflation and the outlook for growth in the tradable sectors; the course of inflation expectations, which are still above the targets set by the board of directors.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
451
in real terms, all average interest rates increased during february, with the exception of those on treasury and consumer loans.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
391
in fact, the rest of investment spending - largely private investment - was what declined the most.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
204
as for exports of coffee, banana, and flowers, they experienced reductions of 57%, 10.9% and 18.7% respectively.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
229
they emphasize that the creation of 21,000 jobs last july is the lowest job creation figure seen post-pandemic.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
299
other members voiced their preference for a 50 bp cut in the intervention interest rate and an announcement to the effect that, with the data at hand, no further changes in that rate are anticipated in the near future.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
276
this has caused a drop in the terms of trade of exporting countries and has deteriorated their national income.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
486
the risk premia of latin american countries also increased, and for brazil and colombia reached their highest levels since 2009in addition to oil, international prices of other commodities exported by the region, particularly by colombia, continue being low.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
534
however, the reduction in growth was offset, in part, by an increase in non- traditional exports to the united states.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
978
overall, this group of directors holds to the expectation of accommodating greater policy rate reductions in the coming months as current uncertainty sources dissipate.the board members who voted for a 50-bps reduction noted that the contractionary monetary policy stance implemented since september 2021 has been generating the necessary macroeconomic adjustment, as evidenced by the slowdown of aggregate demand to levels compatible with productive capacity, resulting from the deceleration of consumption and the sharp decline in investment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
884
those embedded in public debt bonds rose slightly in january and are currently around 3.5%.in all, inflation is expected to continue lowering in the first quarter of the year, partly as a result of the reversal of the transitory shocks that have diverted it from its target.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
541
this forecast assumes that household consumption in the second half of the year will grow at rates close to those seen in the first half of the year while investment in construction will surge significantly.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
983
in this they were partly influenced by the good terms of trade, (iii) the information available so far, including the data on gdp growth (5.1%), suggests that the output gap will close in the second half of the year, (iv) the growth of credit continues to climb.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
969
this increases the risk of inducing indexation processes at higher inflation levels.all the board members agreed that the increases in inflation and inflation expectations and the high rate of economic activity, which has been reducing spare capacity, warranted the continued withdrawal of monetary stimulus.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
972
(iii) the momentum in the colombian economy during 2008 and 2009 will be affected by the slowdown in us and world economic growth, and by possible future problems affecting venezuela.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
980
accumulated inflation in the first five months of the year was 5.1%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
305
the venezuelan economy contracted 5.8% during the fourth quarter and 3.3% during the year as a whole.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
348