Datasets:
gtfintechlab
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bank_of_the_republic_colombia

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
sentences
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1
999
the entrepreneur and consumer confidence indices remain depressed, while sentiment indices in the manufacturing and service sectors have worsened.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
829
this is 44 basis points (bp) less than the figure on record for december, a month that also witnessed a significant drop.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
927
these include specifically the iron and steel, textile, clothing, shoe, leather manufacturing, processed food sectors, etc.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,012
550
to april, oil production remained at levels similar to those of the past 6 months, and coffee reduced substantially compared to the first quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
455
by contrast, coffee and oil production continued to fall.thus, given the slowdown that the colombian economy has been experiencing and the negative effects of the trucking strike (which would not be fully offset in some sectors in the following months), economic growth in the third quarter is likely to be lower than in the second.on the other hand, according to the figures of the balance of payments for the first half of the year, the current account deficit relative to gdp was 4.8%, , 1.5 percentage points less than the one observed in the same period of 2015.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
766
as a result of the above, domestic demand grew at and annual rate of 6.1% in the first quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
574
exports were again driven by the positive performance of products like coffee, coal, nickel-iron, gold, petroleum and its derivatives in the international market.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
421
this revision is explained, in part, by the actual behavior of the world economy and private spending, which have been weaker than expected    financial variablesin june, bank lending (/ and f/c) posted an annual increase of 14.06%, which is similar to the growth observed in recent months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
691
no growth in industry is anticipated, partly because of a temporary supply shock in the petroleum derivatives sector and fewer business days in april (due to easter week)bank deposits increased at less of an annual rate during the second quarter of 2014.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
690
with respect to the international trading accounts, exports slowed down in annual terms in comparison to the second quarter (1.9% vs8%) due to several supply shocks in mining production that substantially affected foreign sales.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
650
interest rates are staying at levels that stimulate the economy’s aggregate expenditures.the members of the board agreed that it would be appropriate to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
890
several countries in latin america, such as brazil and chile, showed clear signs of recovery and, during the third quarter, a number of countries in the region achieved the gdp levels registered in 2008.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
954
during this same period, the decline has been: -188 bp for mortgage loans, -203 bp for consumer loans, and -193 bp for construction loans.the levels of real interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, preferential loans, ordinary commercial ones and commercial lines of credit as well as loans for construction in september were below their historical averages as calculated since 2000.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
585
the conditions that supported the momentum observed in consumption and investment in machinery and equipment are expected to continue during 2013.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
519
internal demand in venezuela declined at an annual rate of 0.9% during the same period, primarily because of the drop in household consumption (-2.5% annual) financial variables in august, the nominal rates on consumer and ordinary lending averaged 17.6% and 9.8% respectively, having dropped by 32 bp and 6 bp, in that order, compared to the month before.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
520
meanwhile, the slowdown in lending to households continued.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
10
the monthly survey conducted by banco de la república indicates inflation is expected to be 2.6% by december of this year (7 bp higher than the expectation a month ago) and 3.1% at twelve months (an increase of 8 bp compared to april).
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,013
206
recent developments in inflation:consumer inflation in april was 2.02% which is 10 basis points (bp) above what was seen in march.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
819
they are of the opinion that monetary policy effectiveness lies on the authorities’ anticipation ability; therefore, in this scenario, a stance relaxation phase must be undertaken in order to prevent drastic adjustments in the future.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
753
perishable foods more generally affected by weather conditions were those having experienced the most noticeable decreases (from 1.1% to -2.0%), as explained in part by a recovery in the farming supply propelled by the relatively high prices of several of these food items until past year‟s third quarter.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
491
this is being confirmed by the momentum of consumption imports (annual growth as of april 30.5%), the growth of consumer credit (22.4% as of may) and the perception of businessmen about their current sales.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
543
this fact, coupled with weak economic growth, has allowed central banks, especially those in the developed economies, to maintain a highly expansive monetary policy.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
666
the core inflation indicators continued to decline.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
308
the new most probable outcome for 2015 (5.3%) would be similar to the deficit observed in 2014 (5.2%).
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
171
the monetary policy rate is in a contractionary stance, with which a path of convergence towards the target inflation rate of 3% is expected to be guaranteed.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
45
the reduced figures for growth in industry, commerce and works during the first quarter would have been offset, in part, by better performance in the agricultural, mining and financial sectors.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
699
(iv) china will continue to grow at high rates but the news has not been exceptionally encouraging in the last few months.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
139
based on the available information, five directors voted to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points, while two directors voted for a 75 basis point cut.the majority group reiterated several factors supporting the shift towards a less contractionary monetary policy stance but cautioned that a policy interest rate reduction exceeding 50 basis points might not be sustainable over time and could jeopardize the continuity of the process.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
216
the strong trend in building permits from the beginning of the year to may also indicates a positive performance in construction activity in the coming months.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
366
on the supply side, the indicators available for the second quarter of 2016 show that the industry and trade recorded favorable dynamics, while mining, agriculture, and energy had a less-dynamic performance.the seasonally adjusted labor market series show that, to may, the unemployment rate remains low, given that the labor supply (measured as the global participation rate) has fallen, which has offset the deterioration in employment creation.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
176
the annual reduction in consumer goods was 6.3% by march 2009, in contrast to 15.7% annual growth in 2008.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
920
mortgage rates declined to a lesser extent (-94 bp), as those on credit card lending (-73 bp), ordinary commercial loans (-104 bp) and lending for home construction (-124 bp).in march, the real interest rate on consumer loans was 15.6% as opposed to 9.8% on mortgages, 5.6% on preferential loans and 8.9% on regular commercial lending.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
258
in the case of latin america, inflation in brazil and peru continues to rise.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
49
annual producer price inflation (ppi) in july was 1.8% as opposed to 2.1% in june growth the indicators at hand show the momentum in local demand witnessed at the start of the year continued during the second quarter and, although less evident, in the third.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
433
the reported annual increase in gdp during the third quarter of 2007 was 6.6%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
930
in support of this, they expressed doubts about the sustainability of the pace at which domestic demand is picking up due to the reduction in household savings, the sluggishness of investment, the employment recovery lag, and the limits to consumption of durable and semi-durable goods.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
946
this is the best figure on record for annual growth in one month since april 2008.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
344
inflation of food in october increased by 38 bp as compared to the previous month, reaching 13.2%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
936
on the other hand, although some inflationary pressures have declined recently, there are still elements out there that add to the risk of higher increases in the general level of prices.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
824
(viii) the different interest rate levels, except those for credit cards, stand at values below the past 15 years’ averages.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
741
those embedded in public debt bonds lowered in january, and are currently around 3.6%.in summary, observed inflation has been lower than expected, and it maintains its convergence to the target.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
999
this has taken place together with interest rates (for trade and consumption), which in real terms continue at levels below their historic averages (excepting credit cards).13.regarding prices, inflation decreased in may, reaching 4.41%, a figure lower than had been forecast by the market average and the technical staff at the central bank.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
855
(vii) annual inflation rose in february for the third consecutive month and was at 2.32% which is within the target range.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
751
the monetary policy actions undertaken so far, which consider these effects, should strengthen convergence of inflation to its target and optionsthe members of the board agreed that the new information confirms a slowdown of the output higher than forecast by the central bank's technical staff.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
124
the most recent information from europe, in turn, continues to show a slow recovery in spite of the surge seen in germany and france in the first and second quarters.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
242
(v) bank loans are growing at stable rates that were above the nominal gdp.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
161
the latter percent is due to the imports of intermediate goods (-27%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
42
in the first quarter, a sharp annual growth reduction was registered in exports and imports, where the growth rate for the latter shifted from 21.3% in the fourth quarter of the previous year to 13% in the first quarter of 2012, and from 16.2% to 6.3% in the case of external sales.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
621
downward pressure was exerted by the annual change in regulated prices, with 6.4% inflation in april compared to 6.9% in march.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
524
the decrease was concentrated in perishables where significant drops were seen in the prices for potatoes and a large variety of other products (tubers, vegetables, and fruit).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
212
nevertheless, although it is probable that the risks from advanced economies are now lower than before, those from some of the emerging economies may be rising.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
718
acting without the necessary precaution would reduce the capacity of the monetary policy to operate in an anti-cyclic manner in the future.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
262
expectations drawn from the financial markets for 1, 5, and 8 years forward, adjusted for the inflation risk premium, were revised upward and stood at 5.2%, 4.6%, and 4.2% respectively.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
91
with respect to investment, the poor result from public works projects implies a significant slowdown in the investment in fixed capital.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
813
should this risk materialize, world economy would grow considerably less than expected, the international prices of basic goods may fall, and global risk aversion may be exacerbated, all of which would have adverse effects on the colombian economy.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
401
(v) the reduction in the use of installed industrial capacity is obvious, as is the drop in the industrial confidence index, the slowdown in the demand for energy, consumer durables and housing, the downturn in the demand for household loans and the decline in the loan portfolio, especially retail credit.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
761
the board members’ main points of analysis centered around the following aspects: (i) the inflation projections for 2010 and 2011; (ii) the reduced variation in prices for tradable goods due to the appreciation of the peso compared to the dollar; (iii) the lagged effect of monetary policy measures on production and prices; (iv) the projections for economic growth for 2010 which suggest a more rapid recovery than predicted and which led the technical team to raise their forecast for the year; (v) the recent movement in the financial system portfolio and in the high level of prices for assets; (vi) the drop in inflation expectations; (vii) the recent trend in capital flows; (viii) the balance of risk between growth and inflation in a context of a recovering economy and inflation that is at the long term target range and (ix) the need to maintain the monetary authority’s credibility and anchor inflation expectations to the long term target.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,010
579
with data to july, energy demand and production of coffee and oil exhibited annual falls.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
991
in the first case, the annual change was 0.77%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
13
the economic recovery of the united states would be slower than estimated, while the euro zone and japan continue exhibiting low growth rates.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
583
in germany and france, the two growth engines in the region, a deceleration of exports has been witnessed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
458
(ix) the risks to inflation that come from expectations have eased somewhat.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,012
966
this trend persists because essential items like rents, education, and personal services, among others, tend to adjust in line with observed inflation and wage increments.the different metrics used to gauge inflation expectations continued to drop, indicating an overall downward trajectory for inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
673
between that date and march 11, the inter-bank interest rate (tib in spanish) and the bank reference indicator (ibr in spanish) had accumulated a drop of 130 b and were in line with the policy rate, which was 8%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
73
this was explained primarily by the downturn in building construction and works, and to a lesser extent by low growth in coal and by less favorable performance than was expected for coffee.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
508
hence, the expansion rhythm of the third quarter is likely to be higher than the second quarter’s.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
592
according to the most recent information from dane, industry grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in september.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
938
mention was made of the fact that the intervention interest rate has been cut by 500 bp in nearly five months and its current level is clearly expansive.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
581
all of this would adversely affect the colombian economy.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
528
under these circumstances and with the information that is available, one cannot expect higher inflation to result in more growth.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
202
in the view of these members, in this environment, with a widening of the excesses of installed capacity and good anchorage of the forecasts and inflation expectations, a reduction in the intervention interest rates is suitable.some members from the majoritarian group pointed out that external risks persist that limit the possibilities of carrying out a more expansionary monetary policy.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
232
loan portfolio quality indicators declined, particularly for consumer loans.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
777
in the case of mortgages, the growth rate registered an uptick as it went from growing at a rate of 15.37% to 15.59% during the same period.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
138
these rates are below the respective averages calculated since 2000 the external context the latest figures show europe continues to contract and the united states is experiencing moderate growth.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
477
the areas of transportation and financial gdp also presented slowdowns.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
54
this clash in prices, which took place in all world economies, produced a substantial increase in inflation and led to the non-fulfillment of the targets.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
24
a slowdown is expected this year, the extent of which will depend on the international situation.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
427
likewise, the rise in construction permits and the strength of mortgage loans also support better performance in construction.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
774
similarly, oil prices and workers' remittances have exhibited a recovery trend.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
925
s/he also pointed out that the tripartite minimum wage increase reflects the increase in inflation for low-income households plus the increase in productivity, and these together add up to 15.6%.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
107
according to indicators for the third quarter, there is an incipient recovery in the euro zone.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
297
on the other hand, the increase in value-added tax and other indirect taxes would pressure inflation upwards.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
143
the fact that part of this fall was because of one less working day in february this year (the year before was a leap year) should be kept in mind.with regards to the area of mining, production of coal was affected in february and march by labor strikes in cerrejon and the environmental problem drummond had which caused a stop in production due to the restrictions on transportation of the product to the port (temporary suspension of the freight license).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
153
the figures available up to the first quarter of 2011 suggest growth will continue throughout the year, but at a more moderate pace.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
759
this is especially the case in the euro zone, where inflationary pressures have begun to pass through to core inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
640
given the recent decline in inflation expectations, they emphasize that a 25-bps reduction in the policy rate maintains the real interest rate largely unchanged.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
818
and those that were the most affected by the weather grew 15% or, in other words, three times more than the imported food items and other national ones.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
20
this has prompted the central banks of many countries to interrupt the interest rate hikes witnessed in past months.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
548
both these situations are associated with favorable performance in the sector.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
284
our main trading partner, the united states in particular, is showing more marked signs of slowdown than was expected by the market.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
638
despite these improvements, inflation levels and expectations continue to surpass the target, as seen in the inflation expectation for 2024, which stands at 5.0%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
394
in this context, colombia's sovereign risk premium fell in 2023, and the peso appreciated at a higher rate than the currency of comparable countries in the region.the increase in the minimum wage for 2024 exceeded expectations, which influences the price path projected by the technical staff, especially in the services basket.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
425
the most recent measures passed by the european authorities, such as the possibility of direct capitalization for the spanish banking system through the use of resources from the region‟s rescue funds, and the 120.000 billion euros (equal to 1% of the region‟s gdp) to foster economic growth have temporarily reduced uncertainty; but they have not yet managed to persuade markets of the likelihood of a fast regional recovery.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
347
the annual variation of this basket went up to 5.7%, this being the strongest monthly increase (110 bp) in the course of the year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
57
the downward trend in international prices for food, raw materials and oil continues and could have a major impact on total inflation.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
182
on the positive side, the unemployment rate declined again in november and the housing market continues to show signs of recovery though still at a very low level.in the case of the emerging economies in asia, economic growth declined in the majority of the countries during the third quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
974
these board members also expect loose financial conditions to persist for some time, in line with recent fed and ecb announcements.one of these board members further underlined that a significant cause of the observed increase in inflation has been in higher costs due to readjustments in production chains and domestic and international transportation, and that an increase in the interest rate would not be very effective in addressing these issues.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
757
the increase in employment and the reduction of unemployment, together with the observed increase in vacancy rates (which show a significant recovery in demand for new jobs), point to a tighter labor market.in an environment of a robust domestic demand and despite the improvement in the terms of trade, the current account registered a 6.4% deficit as a share of the quarterly gdp in the first quarter of the year, increasing from the 4.1% deficit as a share of gdp for the same period of last year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
183
generally, all the inflation indicators have remained within the target range; (vii) credit dynamics and the increasing value of assets may be due to structural factors, and not only to a low interest rate; (viii) in any ways, imagining prudential regulation measures additional to the interest rate is justified; (ix) market interest rates have increased recently; this suggests that there is no excess liquidity level in the economy the board of directors has unanimously agreed to keep the intervention interest rate unaltered at 4.5%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
319
according to estimations, in 2015 the economy would slow down, and the gdp would present a rate of increase of around 4.3%, within an interval between 3.0% and 5.3%.the new product gap estimations for 2014 indicate that this would be slightly positive and more closed that the forecast performed in the last quarter.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
835