Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_the_republic_colombia

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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999
on the other hand, in most emerging economies, interest rate stability or reductions are expected.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
134
one exception is venezuela where the growth was -4.5% compared to -2.4% in the second quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
522
(v) in march, annual inflation (3.40%) slowed faster than bank’s technical team and the market expected.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
422
a regular meeting of the board of directors of banco de la república was held in the city of bogotá on august 30, 2013.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,013
239
in attendance were mauricio cárdenas santamaría, minister of finance and public credit; josé darío uribe escobar, governor of the central bank; and co-directors carlos gustavo cano sanz, ana fernanda maiguashca olano, adolfo meisel roca, cesar vallejo mejia, and juan pablo zárate perdomo.these minutes contain a summary of the outlook by the technical staff of the central bank on the macroeconomic situation (section 1), followed by a review of the main discussion regarding monetary policy by the board of directors (section 2).furtherdetail on the macroeconomic situationprepared by the technical staff from banco de la república will be presented in the monetary policy report of may and in the statistical annexmacroeconomic contextin its meeting of june, the federal open market committee of the fed decided not to increase its benchmark interest rate.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
996
external demand would exhibit a slight recovery resulting from growth of the main trading partners, somewhat better than in 2016.the current account deficit for 2017 would stand between 3.0% and 4.4% of gdp, with 3.7% in the baseline scenario.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
146
compared to the second quarter of that year, thirdquarter gdp rose 0.2%, thereby completing three consecutive periods of slow quarterly gdp growth.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
218
however, uncertainty about the external and internal conditions and on the volatility of oil prices remains high, all of which could affect the dynamics of prices and economic activity and optionsthe members of the board noted the reduction in the inflation rate that has been taking place throughout 2018 as positive, although it has slowed down its downward trend in recent months.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
290
the long-term rates on bonds of the advanced and emerging economies have risen, starting from a low level.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
783
according to the survey, manufacturers believe the major problems they faced in 2012 were the exchange rate, access to raw materials and low demand, in that order.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
473
theley de financiamientowill contribute to the reactivation by means of higher levels of investment.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
315
although wage adjustments had tended to be compatible with the inflation target up until december, the 5.8% raise in the minimum wage for 2012 increased the risk that pressure from the cost of wages would arise.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
815
in a context where there is a high current account deficit in the balance of payments which reflects an excess of expenditure over revenue, the additional effects of the supply shocks reinforce the need to act now with a 50 bp increase in the interest rate.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
909
an interest rate cut that is not credible can affect the exchange market, the government bond market and future expectations of inflation, all of which could make it difficult for the board to continue to pursue an anti-cyclical monetary policy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,009
934
the trend in business and consumer confidence indicators has been favorable so far during the third quarter, as has the trend in indicators of sentiment in the manufacturing and service sectors.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
402
considering the magnitude of the external shock, a 3.0% gdp growth would represent a positive result for the economy, as long as it comes with a reduction of external vulnerabilities.other board members consider that gdp growth in 2015 will be closer to 3.5%, or even above.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
510
(v) the measurements of core inflation continue to rise and the majority are surpassing 3%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
732
also, certain indicators of business confidence and expectations for the region have improved somewhat in recent months (december and january).in the united states, the first estimate of 2012 growth was lower than the central forecast in the previous edition of banco de la república’s inflation report.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
26
inflation and the economic situation were discussed with respect to growth and prospects for the future, and monetary-policy decisions were reached    backgrouda.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
39
foreign sales of the main agricultural products (coffee, bananas, and flowers) dropped 8.3% annually due to the poor coffee harvest.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
86
the colombian peso has continued to appreciate, returning to levels not seen since -2022.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
47
the gross loan portfolio in domestic currency continued to slow, registering an annual increase of 5.1% by november 6 compared to 7.3% the month before.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
807
also, available information shows the productive sector in colombia is feeling the negative effects of high costs and less demand.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
957
the drop in this variable is particularly dramatic in japan, where the annual decline was around 48% in february.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
903
the former is consistent with the 20% annual plunge in exports to venezuela.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
526
in april, the annual variation of the ppi remained at 1.6, in this manner consolidating the fall experienced in the previous months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
933
with this, on the demand side, growth in 2017 would be more balanced than the one observed in 2016.as for inflation, it stood at 4.69% on a yearly basis in march, while core inflation, measured as the average of the four indicators monitored by the central bank, continued with no significant changes.while most of the deceleration in the month is explained by the behavior of food, the decline in inflation of tradables (excluding food and regulated items) suggests that the upward effect of the tax reform and the liquor act would have taken place, for the most part, in the first months of the year.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
454
this increase is explained by the variation in the prices of food (14.28%), regulated items (6.71%) and, to a lesser extent, non-tradable inflation (excluding food and regulated items) (4.97%).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
606
growth for the year up to july is still in negative territory (it went from -3.4% in june to -2.9% in july).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
941
in investment in buildings, the lower outlays occurred in both housing and non-residential construction.in contrast, the strength of private (4%) and public (4.8%) consumption in the third quarter was similar to what had been seen in the second and better than expected even when the growth of durable goods presented an annual contraction of 5.9% in the third quarter of 2012.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
298
(i) the global economy is expanding at a moderate rate and its short term strength has changed a little with respect to what has been seen in previous quarters.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
702
however, this indicator has tightened less than it in the first and second quarters (17.4% and 14.2% respectively).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
142
in the emerging market economies, the signals are mixed.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
273
also, the improvement in the risk indicators of the financial system was also noted.the members of the board highlighted the consolidation of a broader environment of international liquidity, with which the colombian economy is not expected to face external funding restrictions, nor increases in risk premia.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
943
in july the rise in rent prices (6 bp with respect to the level in june) was offset by the decline in the prices for other items that this basket is made up of.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
223
with this information, the technical staff kept its growth forecast for colombia’s trading partners unchanged oil prices have fallen to levels lower than forecast in the previous quarter.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
154
(only available in spanish)  contextwith figures to the first half of 2017, the country's current account of the balance of payments registered a deficit of usd $6,119 (4.1% of gdp), higher in us dollars than a year ago (usd $5,992 , 4.6% of gdp), but similar to that forecast by the technical staff at the central bank.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
103
the growth of the large emerging economies in asia and latin america was varied with rates that were close to or lower than their potential.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
724
in the first weeks of the year, there have been significant capital inflows to emerging economies.for 2017, it is expected that the strong transitory shocks that diverted inflation from its target continue to fade, in an environment of a weak economic activity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
369
on the monthly level, the trade balance in october (fob) showed a surplus of us$134 from january to october, it still showed a positive balance of us$1.188 , a level that is similar to that from the same period last year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
502
the following is a summary of the principal issues addressed during the meeting background annual inflation was 6.35% at the end of february, which represents an increase for the fifth month in a row.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
44
in this context, the recent slowdown of aggregate demand and the better prospects for inflation allow for a reduction of the benchmark interest rate.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
532
additionally, they pointed to the recent decrease in inflation, excluding food and regulated items, driven by favorable trends in goods prices.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
106
this is indicated by the performance of production variables, such as retail sales and cement shipments, the results of surveys of consumer and business expectations, and the key job market indicators.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
558
so far this year, up to july, terms of trade have shown a better average than in past years.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
259
consequently, the growth in base money rose as well (to 14.7% in june).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
616
recent data from the labor market indicate that the recovery taking place in the first months of the year might cease to make satisfactory progress in the second semester.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
114
going forward, no rise in these terms is expected in a scenario of dilatory recovery of the global economy and better conditions expected in the global supply of petroleum.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
795
a regular meeting of the board of directors of banco de la república took place in the city of bogotá, , on january 30, 2015.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,015
338
if the international situation does not deteriorate further, it can be predicted that this behavior may remain unchanged in the course of 2012.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
155
in this period, the growth of the united states was low and below expectations, while the expansion of the euro zone was weak, although somewhat greater than had been forecast.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
186
although some improvement was observed in the financial conditions in the usa during the second trimester, this trend was not maintained in the last few weeks.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
222
the consumer and mortgage loan portfolios remain the most dynamic, posting respective annual variations of 20.9% and 17.5%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
162
the commercial loan portfolio, in turn, presented a slight recovery in its annual growth during april (13.5% compared to 13.2% in march).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
862
(v) in the near future, there will be relevant information available on the international monetary conditions and their impact on emerging economies.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
87
in the united states, the latest information suggests its economy could grow at a somewhat slower pace than was estimated for 2012.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
569
the average of core inflation indicators monitored by the central bank stood at 5.73% on a yearly basis.16.the annual cpi variation in january is the highest since december 2008.17.according to the monthly survey applied to financial analysts in february, a yearly inflation rate of 5.49% is expected for december 2016, a figure higher than expected in the january survey.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,016
164
however, there is an increase in global uncertainty that could be transmitted to these projections.the risk premia in latin america increased after the results of the elections in the united states.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
90
for example, in latin america, the annual decline in mexico’s gdp was 8.2%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
843
the same was true of m3, given less growth in liabilities subject to reserve requirements (lsr), which was related to an increase in government funds on deposit at the central bank at the end of april and the beginning of may to cover tes maturities.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
945
it was noted that the sharp devaluation in latin american currencies at the start of 209 has been corrected.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
775
this is 13 basis points (bp) more than in december.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
762
with respect to foreign trade, colombian exports grew at an annual rate of 36% in dollars from the beginning of the year to may.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
354
expectations within the business community have improved, and there is more growth in private consumption.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
748
in this context, given the accumulated depreciation until january of 2015, there is a risk that consumer inflation continues to increase this year.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
29
the board members’ main points of discussion and analysis focused on the following aspects: (i) the inflation projections for 2010 and 2011, (ii) the change in the prices for tradable goods, (iii) the lagged effect of the monetary policy measures on production and prices, (iv) the growth projections for the economy and employment for 2010 and 2011, (v) the rise in consumer confidence and the performance of investment, (vi) the recent momentum in the financial system portfolio, (vii) the upswing in the prices for financial assets and housing, (viii) the drop in inflation expectations, (ix) the recent trend for capital flows, (x) the performance of public debt securities, (xi) the balance of risks between growth and inflation in the context of an economy that is recovering and an inflation that is in the lower half of the long term target range, and (xii) the need to maintain the credibility of the monetary authority and anchor inflation expectations around the long term target, (xiii) the growth data and projections for the worldwide economy.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
840
inflation expectations in the quarterly and monthly surveys done by the banco de la república at the beginning of june continue to show declines and are within the long term target range fixed by the board of directors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
544
with respect to the economic situation for the second quarter, most part of information available shows a slowdown in the economic activity.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
287
several members of the board stated that inflationary pressure could be emerging from the upsurge in demand.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,014
727
non-traditional exports to the rest of the world rose by 0.4%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
703
the board has considered that, on the external front, the following must be taken into account: (i) in europe, the public debt crises of some countries in the region and doubts arising on the solvency of certain banks continue to affect household and entrepreneur confidence.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
626
with respect to the predictions for growth and the unemployment rate, some improvements were presented for 2013 and 2014.so far, the reaction of some market indicators has not been very strong in view of the announcement.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
446
investment, especially investment in buildings, should grow at high rates while consumption will probably grow at about the same rate as it in the first half of the year.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
207
nevertheless, on average, the market analysts and some multilateral entities are still predicting a slowdown in the world economy in 2011.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
466
during the fourth quarter, a million four thousand barrels were pumped daily on average.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,014
605
yet, the board emphasized that the technical staff’s projection for the end of the year was affected by the expected increase in food inflation and by inflation of regulated items, the latter due to the upward pressures of the international price of oil.vis-à-visthe previous meeting, the risk that persists on this front is due to the external context, in which the level of uncertainty is high.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
75
according to the same source, food supply in the central markets remains high.the annual variation of the ppi exhibited a significant reduction (from 8.38% in july to 4.89% in august).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
16
the unemployment rate declined during the first three months of the year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
428
the continuation of the tapering off of the monetary stimulus on the part of the fed at a time when the outlook for growth is evidently lower in some economies seems to be the cause for the rise in the risk perception.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
98
nevertheless, it should be noted that the figures in dollars for imports of consumer goods showed an annual growth of 19.9% in january.total exports, in contrast saw a change of -1.1% in january in comparison to the same month in 2012.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
960
as has been observed so far, the trade balance (goods and non-factor services) would have contributed mostly to the adjustment of the external imbalance.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
485
china's gdp slowed down again, while the figures for economic activity of the major countries in the region suggest that their product will expand at low or negative rates.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
538
the above might increase capital flows to the emerging economies, thus generating currency appreciation pressures.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
572
price hikes for several regulated items were offset by lower prices for processed foods and reductions in the non-tradable cpi excluding food and regulated items.within the non-food cpi, one of the most notable aspects in may was the increase in the annual change in regulated prices (1.25% as opposed to 0.9% in april).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
61
they highlighted the importance of continuing to adjust monetary policy to moderate the increase in inflation expectations and prevent second-order effects.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
689
as of april, the information on exports, industrial activity, and retail sales show an annual growth that is lower than it was in past years.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
615
the annual increase in m3 was 15.2%, cash 9.8% and liabilities subject to reserve requirements (lsr) 16.05%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
976
in fact, there was a major increase in traditional exports (21.2%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
260
on the supply side, the industrial sector excluding coffee processing fell again in october (-0.1%) although at a slower rate than that recorded a month before.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
948
inflation expectations also go down: 3.1% is expected for december 2012 and about 3.3% for july 2013, while those deriving from the treasury „tes‟ bonds at horizons between two and five years are around 2.5%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
518
compared to the first quarter, the second posted an increase of 0.7%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
779
in november, total exports in dollars grew 42.5% per year, this fact mainly explained by an increase of 52.1% in the foreign sales of the main products of mining origin (oil, coal, gold, ferronickel).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
46
during the period, the rate of unemployment continued to fall and for the 13 areas it was at 11.5%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
527
(iv) private consumption grew at a rate close to its historic average, and it is feasible to expect it will slow somewhat this year, but not significantly.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
377
(ii) the current real rate is below its probable long term balance and is inconsistent with the growth that is expected to be close to its potential in 2011 and 2012 and a projected inflation that is close to the midpoint of the long term target range.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
5
in the case of goods of mining origin, the only item having y p ( p ) p for increased exports of agricultural products lies in the augmented exported values of banana (104%) and flowers (58%) serving to offset the 1.4% reduction in coffee exports financial variables in august, total credit in national and foreign currencies (“mn” and “me” credits) exhibited an annual growth rate of 16.35%, therefore lower by 83 bp and 334 bp than the levels respectively observed in the previous month and in march.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
956
the monthly slowdown was led by the commercial portfolio, the annual increase of which declined 132 bp by shifting from 15.56% to 14.24% between july and august.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
864
however, it is important to bear in mind that the supply shock caused by temporary closure of the cartagena refinery could explain part of the growth in this deficit.on the domestic front, new information at the close of june suggests second-quarter growth would be in line with the forecast presented in the last quarterly report on inflation.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
861
however, these factors may be partially offset by the recent depreciation of the exchange rate external sector and the balance of paymentsthe members of the board discussed the effects of the external and the domestic situations on the forecast for the balance of payments.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
48
however, the increase in labor supply (global participation rate) was greater, probably because of deteriorating household income.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
256