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this sharp drop was due, in part, to fewer working days in april 2009 compared to the year before, because of easter week. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 549 |
in the case of commerce, the information from fedesarrollo and fenalco shows a weakening in the outlook the merchants have of the future. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 476 |
it had been 3.4% in december of the previous year and, since february 2011 (at 3.0%), has continued to rise interruptedly. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 663 |
this has generated a degree of calm in the financial markets, which has been reflected in stability in the risk perception of the emerging economies. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 820 |
in the first place, imports of capital goods in dollars grew 40.5% on average in october and november and, secondly, because cement production in november maintained a dynamic behavior with annual growths higher than 10%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 736 |
recent economic forces at work may have led to an increase in the output gap. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 867 |
the drop in total inflation during the month was mainly due to the slowdown in the variation of food prices. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 32 |
exports and imports continue to contract in yearly terms. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 990 |
household consumption will have grown at rates that are similar to its historical average. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 676 |
there has been a change in the monetary policy stance of the fed towards a more moderate pace of increase of its interest rates, the price of oil has partially recovered, and the reactivation of the latin american economy will boost demand for manufacturing exports and tourist activity in the country. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 234 |
regarding employment, dane information as of august suggests that growth in labor demand was higher than labor supply. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 833 |
all of this translates into less international trade. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 892 |
likewise, if the trend that has been seen in prices for the main export products continues, the average terms of trade in 2013 will be lower than those seen last year and optionsthe board of directors took the following relevant aspects under consideration:(i) the growth of our trading partners will probably be lower than expected and, as a result, the contribution of foreign demand to the growth of the country will remain low. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 472 |
april witnessed a continued increase in price for some of colombia’s major exports. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 201 |
in contrast, increases were observed in the inflation of regulated items resulting from heightened gasoline prices, as well as the inflation rate of services. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 745 |
the slowdown in the basket for regulated prices (a fall of 48 bp compared to october) was due to a correction in the fees for electricity in cali after a sharp rise that was registered two months ago. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 678 |
also imports would have exhibited a high growth rate (22.1%) and offset foreign sale dynamics. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 959 |
(iii) the past three months saw an increase in inflation expectations, which continued during february, even though the outcome for inflation the month before was what the market expected. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 710 |
(iii) the increased weight colombian public debt securities have in the benchmark portfolios of some international investors could offset to some degree the effects that the adjustment in global liquidity has on the exchange rate and market interest rates in colombia. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 159 |
although these increments appear small, they align with historically high product levels that reflect marginal variations of significant gdp expansions that occurred in 2021 and 2022. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 368 |
if the series is adjusted by working days, the indicator would be up by 2.4%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 185 |
the directors reiterated their view that the current account deficit continues to reflect colombia's reduced financing needs and emphasized the international monetary fund's decision to expand its flexible credit line for the country, strengthening the availability of external liquidity amid a high degree of uncertainty in the global economy.the directors expressed their concern over an upsurge in -19 cases in numerous countries, most notably in europe, and suggested that recent pandemic dynamics had added an additional degree of uncertainty to economic policy in general and monetary policy in particular.in considering the balance of risks, the bdbr unanimously decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 1.75%.the board emphasized that future decisions will depend on the evolution of macroeconomic variables and of the risk factors mentioned above. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 728 |
a healthy financial system, household confidence and a dynamic job market will continue to support the rise in consumption. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 735 |
the lower growth of the gdp and of domestic demand originated from the area of gross fixed capital formation, specifically from the poor performance of investments in public works projects, construction and buildings, and transportation equipment. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 492 |
in this scenario, it is essential for the monetary authority to continue monitoring the external conditions and the domestic effects of likely shocks.from the perspective of domestic demand, there was consensus in that uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery increased. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 505 |
coupled with the expectation of weak global growth, this indicates monetary policy in the developed economies and in several emerging markets would remain expansive. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 168 |
on the other hand, that reform implied a reduction in vat from 10% to 5% on pre-paid medical care and other health expenses, which translated into price reductions for these items. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 38 |
there is a lot of uncertainty about the future of these variables and, therefore, maintaining the current level of the benchmark interest rate is considered appropriate.another group of directors thought it was possible that the output gap could be more negative than previously stated if the fact that both core inflation and the -point of the inflation projections are remaining at around 2.5%, which is below the long term target, is considered. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 101 |
in the domestic economic activity, it is highlighted that inflation, as well as the expectations, have continued to converge to the midpoint of the target range. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 233 |
supply problems associated with the heavy rain in the first half of the year as well as the normal price and production cycle would explain these registers. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 266 |
according to the bank’s monthly survey of financial market analysts, expected inflation for december of this year remained at 2.6% while the inflation expectations for the coming 12 months were at 3.0%, 7 bp lower than the previous month. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 470 |
most of the downward pressure originated with the cop200 cut in the price of gasoline when tax reform took effect. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 688 |
the fed reduced their purchases of financial assets again. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 707 |
this is the lowest level since -2006. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 278 |
the main points of discussion among the board members centered on: (i) the effect of monetary-policy measures, given the time it takes them to work through to the economy; (ii) the elements that influence the inflation forecasts for 2008 and 2009; (iii) the advisability of adopting monetary policy measures in a scenario of high international prices for food and fuel; (iv) the behavior of non-tradable inflation, excluding food and regulated prices, which was down in july compared to the month before; (v) the lower forecasts for the current account deficit; (vi) the effects of accumulated appreciation in the exchange rate and the devaluation observed during the last few weeks; (vii) the possibility that changes on the international scene, in a situation with a current account deficit, might lead to future exchange rate adjustments; (viii) the uncertainty created by highly volatile international markets and how that volatility might affect the colombian economy; (ix) the difficulty in assessing available data in a situation marked by a break in the cycle of sustained growth; (x) the risk balance with respect to growth and inflation in a context of rising inflation expectations and economic slowdown; and (xi) the need to bolster the monetary authority’s credibility and to anchor inflation expectations, given the risk of the side-effects of international food and fuel prices. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 570 |
the first is the slow but steady recovery in imports of capital goods, particularly for industry. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 670 |
commercial credit is showing signs of more momentum, as confirmed by larger disbursements. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 675 |
so far this year, among the main countries of the region with an inflation targeting scheme, the brazilian real and the colombian peso have been the most depreciated currencies vis-à-vis the us dollarso far in june, the prices of oil exhibited levels higher than the projections for all of 2015, but they are still far lower than the average observed in the last five years. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 144 |
the adjustment in the prices for processed foods, in turn, (-0.2% annually) stayed in negative territory with no significant changes while the meals away from home component remained stable (3.3% annually).the main upward pressures in the cpi excluding food came from the groups of regulated items and tradables. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 918 |
at the same time, the recent events in europe have raised the perception of risk in the international markets. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 141 |
consumer lending continued to grow at a very low annual rate (0.2%) and mortgage lending tended to accelerate (from 11.9% in august to 12.9% on october 9). | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 263 |
the region’s stock markets have dropped, but not as much as those in the developed countries. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 128 |
as was expected, inflation increased, a fact explained by the greater pace of increase in the prices of food, which is expected to be transitory. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 607 |
in this regard, he expressed concern about the behavior of non-food inflation expectations for the end of 2023. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 108 |
the fenalco indicators, with february data, show a rise in sales for the sector, although they still are at low levels. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 105 |
acceleration of inflation was explained mainly by the greater pace of increase in the prices of food and those of tradables excepting food and regulated goods. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 35 |
this dynamism responds to the strengthening of domestic demand driven by household consumption, which expanded by 12.0% annually for that period. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 839 |
the local component increased as well.inflation expectations rose slightly in june, but remained at levels in harmony with meeting the inflation target. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 537 |
they emphasized that the lower growth of credit and monetary aggregates reinforce the downward adjustment in the excess aggregate demand. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 495 |
this is high, but less than the figure for the third quarter (8.5%). | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 979 |
industrial production in the united states showed a sharp contraction in august and slowed down as seen in the annual comparison; this situation might be repeated in the next months as anticipated by the purchasing managers index (pmi) in the manufacturing sector. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 271 |
in europe, positive performance of consumer confidence indicators and of perception by industrialists continues.colombia's terms of trade to march increased thanks to the increase in the prices of its main export products. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 8 |
as a consequence, the risks of lower growth in the world economy have risen, and ii) the problems of sovereign debt in europe and the debate about the debt ceiling in the united states sharply increased uncertainty and volatility in the international financial markets. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 737 |
in response, the policy discussion centered on whether to delay or to proceed immediately with a decision to partially withdraw monetary stimulus that the economy has been receiving since the start of the pandemic.five board members advocated in favor of holding the policy interest rate. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 523 |
credit continues to contract and financial fragmentation is still affecting the most vulnerable economies in the region.in the case of japan, the strong stimulus provided by the monetary policy is beginning to manifest itself in the positive indicators of economic activity in that country. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 968 |
the commercial portfolio keeps growing at rates close to 20% per year. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 279 |
on january 28, banco de la república's board of directors (bdbr) voted 5-2 to approve a 100-basis point increase to the benchmark interest rate, bringing it to 4.0%; two dissenting members voted for a 75-point increase.the decision took into account the following considerations:both headline and core inflation closed the year above expectations and on upward trajectories.inflation expectations are high and also ended the year on an upward trajectory. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 853 |
real interest rates (deflated by the cpi without food) also exhibited a generalized reduction in january and particularly in february. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 899 |
these shocks, which are transitorily increasing inflation, may affect inflation expectations, causing several mechanisms of indexation of prices and wages to operate with greater intensity than in earlier periods, and generate a slower convergence of inflation to the target.in summary, inflation expectations have increased and the risk of a slowdown in domestic demand, beyond that which is consistent with the decline registered in national income, has moderated and optionsall board members agree that the colombian economy has experienced a strong impact on income derived from the fall in the international price of oil, generating a substantial depreciation of the peso, which is necessary to achieve a sectoral re-orientation of spending and production, leading to the adjustment of the country’s external accounts.due to its magnitude, devaluation has increased inflation of consumer prices. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 282 |
as expected, both the default portfolio and liability provisions have increased as certain debt relief measures have been withdrawn, though this has come without risk to the stability of the financial system.despite improvement on several counts, significant economic uncertainty persists. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 758 |
in attendance were mr. mauricio cárdenas santamaría, minister of finance and public credit, mr. josé darío uribe, governor and managing director of banco de la república, and the full-time co-directors messrs. fernando tenjo galarza, carlos gustavo cano sanz, juan josé echavarría soto, juan pablo zárate perdomo and césar vallejo mejía. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 375 |
despite the expected deceleration, the gdp forecast sets values 12% higher than those observed in 2019, prior to the pandemic. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 937 |
for instance, in the emerging economies, the central banks of brazil, china and south korea have recently lowered their interest rates in an attempt to counteract the effects of a deceleration in demand. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 92 |
this was due to all the sub-groups and particularly public utilities. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 371 |
for the next year, the most recent predictions of the major international agencies continue to point to a worldwide growth recovering as compared to 2012, although at a slower pace than estimated in previous months. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 190 |
however, the outlook is less favorable for other commodities and minerals such as copper, silver and gold, and for some foods as well, which have seen recent price declines. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 546 |
industry’s demand for non-regulated energy continued growing quite dynamically in march (22.1% compared to 15.2% in february). | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 804 |
however, the board considers that this shock is temporary, given that an additional, strong and continuous depreciation is not expected; also, they expect the phenomena affecting food prices to disappear in the policy horizon.although there have been different perceptions concerning the risks of a fall in the rate of growth that could lead to the possibility that a larger-than-necessary adjustment may take place (particularly in a context of weak external demand), such perceptions have diminished.on the contrary, the risks of inflation expectations becoming “unanchored” in the presence of a continuous and higher-than-expected increase of inflation and core inflation indicators have augmented. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 325 |
the annual increase in prices for regulated goods went from 3.9% in april to 4.6% in may. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 568 |
the main points of discussion among the board members centered on: (i) the effect of monetary-policy measures, given the time it takes them to work through to the economy; (ii) the elements that influence inflation forecasts for 2008 and 2009; (iii) the advisability of adopting monetary policy measures in a scenario of rising international prices for food and fuel; (iv) the continued upward trend in non-tradable inflation, excluding food and regulated prices; (v) a current account deficit that reflect more growth in local demand compared to the increase in national production; (vi) the effects of appreciation in the exchange rate; (vii) the possibility that developments on the international scene, in a situation with a current account deficit, might lead to future exchange rate adjustments; (viii) the uncertainty created by highly volatile international markets and how that volatility might affect the colombian economy; (ix) the difficulty in assessing available data in a situation where there is a break in the cycle of sustained growth; (x) the risk balance between growth and inflation in a context of rising inflation expectations and a slowdown in the economy; and (xi) the need to bolster the monetary authority’s credibility as a way to anchor inflation expectations, given the possible side-effects of international food and fuel prices; the board underscored the persistence of inflationary pressures worldwide, and stressed the importance of anchoring inflation and expectations of inflation to the targets, given the inflation forecasts for the coming months. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 404 |
(v) in latin america, industry has lost momentum and several of the economies have cooled down. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 352 |
this is us$737 million (m) less than the deficit posted during the same period in 2008. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 866 |
with respect to tradables without foods and regulated items, their result in june was 1.0%, similar to that in may though higher than the percentage observed in the first quarter of the year (about 0.7%). | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 208 |
conversely, services such as health, transportation, and recreation, among others, have continued to push inflation upwards, which was reflected in the 47 bps increase in core inflation excluding food and regulated items seen in march. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 679 |
performance figures for its productive sector show a new decline in gross domestic product during the first quarter of 2013. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 145 |
the measurements of core inflation not show significant changes. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 567 |
at the same time, economic growth has slowed. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 793 |
others mentioned that the transmission of the reduction in the benchmark interest rate has not yet ended, therefore the assessment of the evolution of all credit variables should continue.the possible effects of narrower international financial conditions on the long-term real interest rate and on the assessment of the monetary policy stance were also discussed.within this context, despite a negative output gap, with stable inflation (albeit above the target), and a highly uncertain external context, there is an evident economic recovery. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 6 |
this includes an annual reduction of 12.7%, primarily as a result of fewer sales to the united states (-8.2%) and venezuela (-33.5%). | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 329 |
the monetary policy actions undertaken so far, which consider these effects, should strengthen convergence of inflation to its target and optionsthe board members emphasized that inflation has continued to fall. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 857 |
thus, the colombian economy would receive an additional boost next year generated by a stronger external demand consistent with a greater global demand and a lower growth of global production of crude oil, the price of oil is expected to remain at current levels, which would continue driving the recovery in the country’s terms of trade for the rest of the year. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 653 |
these minutes contain a summary of inflation, economic growth and their prospects for the future, which was prepared by the bank’s technical staff (section 1), in addition to a review of the key deliberations and policy options considered by the board of directors (section 2) and growtha. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 612 |
the reduced european dynamism has began to affect the behavior of the emerging economies in asia as reflected in the weakening of both exports and industrial production, and accentuating the ongoing slowdown they had been exhibiting since -2011, generated by the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus policies except for indonesia, the april 2012 figures of industrial production in the major emerging asian economies show deceleration. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 104 |
exports bolstered by a weak dollar could explain part of this outcome. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 21 |
between november 30 and december 16, 2010, the rates for public debt securities jumped 56 bp and 31 bp for the one and five year securities. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 517 |
nevertheless, the gdp growth for the set of colombia’s commercial partners was maintained because price increases in some countries like ecuador were revised, given the recent trends. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 514 |
in the latter case, this is the result of the inflow of capital related to the changes in the jp morgan benchmark portfolios. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 69 |
added to that, there was a slump in car sales on the order of 16.4% in february according to the colombian automobile committee and the figures published by econometria. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 165 |
those embedded in public debt bonds to more than two years were reduced. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 301 |
although the foreseeable reduction in the growth rate of food prices in the coming months must contribute to attenuate the increase of total inflation, it is very unlikely that with the current monetary policy stance the speed of its reduction be enough to face this challenge successfully. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 648 |
on the other hand, the active average rate calculated by central bank of colombia reduced in 26pb as compared to the previous month, reaching 17.1%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 66 |
for developed economies as well as for many countries which are importers of raw materials, these lower prices must result in a decrease in their inflation in the short term. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 680 |
the growth of germany to the end of 2014 turned out better than had been forecast, and in january the confidence and industry indicators of the euro zone showed positive trends. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 900 |
exports to asia rose 233% and to the european union, 55.6%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 450 |
the board anticipates a gradual recovery of employment as the economic activity recovers.the members of the board discussed the inflation figure in june (2.19%, below the target), and, particularly, inflation excluding food and regulated items, which reduced to 1.6%. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 68 |
less of an annual variation in items with “low indexing,” particularly personal services, was a highlight. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 700 |
so far this year, there has been a slowdown in commercial loans denominated in pesos but a rise in financing through the issuance of bonds by firms together with greater foreign indebtedness. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 483 |
this is in line with what was registered in the second quarter (-1.9%) and a recovery for 2011 that is barely starting. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 729 |
this indicator rose at annual rates of -16.5% and signals to a poor start to the year for consumer durables.the favorable news during the first month of 2013 includes an increase in oil production to 1,012,000 barrels per day (bd). | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 734 |
china continues slowing down moderately; as for latin america, gdp growth in chile, mexico and peru was low and similar to that observed in recent quarters. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 58 |
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