Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_england

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
sentences
stringlengths
26
588
stance_label
stringclasses
4 values
time_label
stringclasses
2 values
certain_label
stringclasses
2 values
year
int64
2k
2.02k
__index_level_0__
int64
1
999
further out, the responses of companies and households would depend on developments in the next stage of the brexit process, including negotiations about the nature of, and the transition to, the united kingdom’s future trading relationships.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
265
to that extent, the negative contribution of net trade to uk output growth would tend to be smaller than from a more generalised adverse shock to global demand.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,001
374
other indicators suggested continuing robust growth in consumption.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,004
769
but there was a risk that the committee had underestimated the potential impact.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,004
825
growth in unit wage costs had risen again in q2, as wages and salaries had grown faster than productivity.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
715
it was likely that this, in part, reflected increased expectations of gilt purchases for monetary policy purposes.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
834
if the pricing power of firms increased as the degree of spare capacity was removed, there was a risk that firms would seek to restore their profit margins by pushing up prices.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,006
417
four-quarter chinese gdp growth had slowed to 7% in q1, a little weaker than expected in the february _inflation report, and annual growth in industrial production had fallen to 5.6% in march.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
730
the working-age employment rate had been broadly unchanged over the past six months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
791
and, despite recent policy initiatives, there was still a possibility that this process would involve a disorderly adjustment, resulting in sharply lower output in the euro area.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
881
construction output growth had been revised down to 2.0%, from 2.5%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
752
during the month, the ons had published the first results of the census for england and wales.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,012
667
the prospective revisions could, nevertheless, make household consumption spending appear significantly stronger than in the current data vintage, and the household saving ratio commensurately lower.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
880
the twelve-month growth rate of m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had fallen to 11.4% in september, from 11.9% in august.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
187
following the ecb’s extension of its securities market programme to the purchase of italian and spanish bonds, yields had initially fallen back to around 5%, but they had subsequently risen a little.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
535
but loan approvals for house purchase had fallen in january and february, possibly affected by the cold weather.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
195
net trade was estimated to have contributed nearly half of uk growth during 2017.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
356
a27 the contribution to gdp growth from stockbuilding in 2001 q1 had been revised up to 0.9 percentage points from the previous estimate of 0.3 percentage points.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
27
household consumption growth still showed no obvious signs of slowing: growth in the fourth quarter now seemed likely to be somewhat faster than previously expected and possibly above that recorded in the third quarter, retail sales were growing at an annual rate of around 4% on the three-month comparison and car registrations had increased sharply on a year earlier in each month of the fourth quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
555
final domestic demand growth in germany had been relatively weak since early 1999.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
995
the committee noted that labour market data in early 2009 might be a good indicator of whether companies believed that the slowdown in output would be short-lived, in which case they might just reduce working hours, or whether the slowdown would be more persistent, in which case they were more likely to reduce the size of their workforce.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
99
a significant development in monetary and financial conditions was the further rise in sterling’s effective exchange rate.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
1,999
882
a2 us industrial production had grown strongly during april, and consumer confidence in may had been strong.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
504
since the may monetary policy report, cpi inflation had been slightly higher than expected, largely reflecting upside news in energy prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
810
consistent with this view, some survey indicators of wage growth had been rising for some time, most notably the rec survey measure of the pay growth of new employees.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,014
452
inflation expectations derived from index-linked gilts had fallen slightly.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,000
602
but futures prices had been little changed, suggesting that the rise in spot prices was expected to be temporary.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
631
four members (andrew large, kate barker, stephen nickell and paul tucker) voted against, preferring an increase in the repo rate of 25 basis points.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
410
a net balance of around 30% of respondents serving the public sector had expected investment to be higher than in the previous twelve months, and a somewhat larger net balance of these respondents expected an increase in employment.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
321
the picture for manufacturing was more mixed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
1,997
28
capital goods orders – usually a reasonable leading indicator of business investment – had picked up in the latest cbi industrial trends survey but had fallen sharply in the april cips/rbs survey.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
951
the news on the month had continued to suggest a robust recovery in activity in the united kingdom.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,013
630
prices for non-oil commodities had also risen in the month.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
898
further out, international nominal forward rates derived from yields on government bonds had changed less beyond the five-year horizon.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
456
interest rates had risen slightly in the euro area, probably reflecting the fall in the amount of excess reserves within the eurosystem following the european central bank’s most recent market operations.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
447
and it was possible that they presaged a more sustained period of weak spending growth, perhaps as the impacts of the fiscal consolidation and near-term above-target inflation on household finances became more readily apparent.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
499
this release was consistent with data which would be published in “2003 national accounts – the blue book” on 24 october.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,003
436
changes in bank rate could not be expected to smooth out all short-term fluctuations in output growth.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
772
the movement in the past month had been broadly consistent with interest differentials, but was less easy to reconcile with the apparent strength of domestic recovery in the united states relative to the euro area.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,002
644
the indicators were mixed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
213
the mpc’s most recent economic projections, set out in the may inflation report, assumed a smooth adjustment to the average of a range of possible outcomes for the united kingdom’s eventual trading relationship with the european union and were conditioned on a path for bank rate that rose to around 1% by the end of the forecast period.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
220
by contrast, market participants did not expect the federal open markets committee to raise us interest rates until well into 2004.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,003
11
that was not easy, especially when some shocks could affect both demand and supply.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
806
in sum, although the data so far had been insufficient to estimate with confidence the quantitative effect on gdp and the precise timing of the slowdown, the uncertainty flowing from the referendum result was likely to be negative for near-term activity.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,016
249
in the united states, the november senior loan officer survey showed an increased net balance of banks reporting tighter credit conditions for loans to commercial and industrial companies compared with three months earlier, and weaker demand for loans from both the corporate and household sectors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
482
the gfk consumer confidence index had been broadly stable in april (+1.9 compared to +3.2 in march).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
389
this suggested that, in addition to high energy prices, pressures from global bottlenecks due to strong demand for goods and inelastic supply had been passing through to consumer prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
746
contacts had reported an improvement in enquiry levels but these enquiries had not yet translated into orders.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,002
121
it was too early to assess the impact of the fls by reference to lending flows, but encouraging signs concerning the impact of the scheme had continued to emerge.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
952
it was highly probable that business sentiment had been affected by the continuing financial and political tensions within the euro area.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
231
domestic demand had also risen by 0.4% on the quarter, with the change in inventories making no contribution to gdp growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
129
the ism non-manufacturing index had eased slightly, but remained high.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
36
another possible explanation was simply that the effects of us events on uk confidence were lagged.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,001
76
real consumption and retail sales had both risen in july following falls in june, with increased spending across many categories, including motor vehicles, but some of the indicators for august were more mixed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
41
in particular, members discussed whether there were costs to rapid reversals of policy; eg cutting rates very shortly after having raised them.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
1,998
479
labour productivity had remained well below the level associated with a continuation of its pre-crisis trend, which appeared to suggest a substantial amount of underutilised capacity within companies.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
387
this sectoral picture had been broadly corroborated by the reports of the bank’s regional agents.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
1,998
96
in contrast, those firms which had reported a slower pace of expected inflation this year had suggested that competitive pressures and productivity had been the main causes.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,001
463
on japan there was great uncertainty about the likely path of real activity given the fall in output in 1998 q1, and other forecasters were still revising down their projections for 1998.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
1,998
360
the pickup in growth was supported by: a moderate but persistent expansion in global demand; the sustained stimulus from monetary policy; a further easing in credit conditions aided by the fls and steps to increase the resilience of uk banks and building societies; and a gradual fading of the impact of the financial crisis on household and business spending.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
609
at 0.5% in march, twelve-month cpi inflation had remained well below the target.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
618
however, the rate of cpi inflation in the medium term would also depend substantially on the prospects for regular pay, non-wage costs and other drivers of domestic inflation.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
871
analysis by bank staff suggested that the output gap, while continuing to fall, was estimated to be slightly larger in the second half of the year than had been previously expected.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,014
971
consumer services had continued to record modest growth.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,002
82
some of the tax measures seemed likely to have a delayed effect, for example because they were not being implemented immediately (miras) or because they would affect consumers only after a lag (dividend tax credits).
neutral
forward looking
certain
1,997
3
total car registrations had fallen further in february and private registrations had remained particularly weak.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
552
the increases in stocks of purchases and finished goods reported in the january ihs markit/cips manufacturing survey had been the highest, or close to the highest, since the survey began in 1992.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
355
nonetheless, markets had functioned well, and the improved resilience of the core of the uk financial system, and the flexibility of the regulatory framework, had allowed the impact of the referendum result to be dampened rather than amplified, such that there had been little indication that asset prices had been distorted by impaired market functioning.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
19
core inflation in the euro-area had been surprisingly persistent, although the flash estimate of the area-wide harmonised index of consumer prices, on the headline measure, had unexpectedly fallen somewhat, from 2.0% in may to 1.7% in june.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
551
the ons estimated that gdp had fallen by 0.8% in 2009 q2, following a 2.4% decline in the previous quarter.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
557
new housing starts had risen by nearly 15% in the three months to august compared with the preceding three months.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
468
other indicators of household spending had been softer, however.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
474
cpi inflation fell further in may, to 0.5%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
343
the committee judged that the equilibrium unemployment rate remained at around 4¼%.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
228
as in the united states, producer price inflation had increased, reaching 4.9% in january.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
332
forecasts in the consensus economics survey had continued to point to dollar depreciation against the euro, even though relative interest rates would have been consistent with dollar appreciation.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,003
2
retail sales had risen only modestly in november, but there was anecdotal evidence that while sales growth had also been slow early in december it had picked up close to christmas, partly encouraged by price discounting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
166
concerns over foreign travel had been expected to boost domestic tourism, but some companies would be adversely affected by the expected continued low number of visitors from north america.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,003
641
and measures of breakeven rates of inflation at three- and five-year horizons had also increased.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
484
survey and asset price evidence had suggested a wider divergence of views on uk rates over the next year or two, based on alternative forecasts for growth and inflation up to 2000.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
1,999
651
the twelve-month growth rate of ofcs’ m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had slowed, to 10.6%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
782
percentage changes on a year earlier + – 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 + 0.0 – 0.5 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 sources: eikon from refinitiv, eurostat, oecd, ons and bank calculations.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,020
854
in the past, such a dip in the housing market had tended to go hand-in-hand with a softening in consumption growth.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
902
even with the relaxation of some covid-related restrictions on economic activity, a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses is likely to persist.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
1
house prices had again been volatile, with the nationwide index recording a strong rise on the month, while the halifax index had fallen.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
1,999
923
since the committee’s previous meeting, it had been consulted over the size and terms of the bank’s ectr facility, in advance of the monthly auction on 19 december 2012.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,013
958
for the duration of the guarantee, this might have been expected to reduce the risk that a long period of externally generated price inflation led to more persistent domestic price and wage pressures, although that risk remained material.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
809
although households had in aggregate acquired additional financial assets at a rate which broadly matched their increasing liabilities, the falls in equity market prices had at the same time eroded the value of their existing financial asset holdings.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
180
manufacturing output growth had been 0.6% in q3, up from 0.4% in q2, while service sector growth had slowed to 0.7% from 0.9%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
874
nevertheless, the forward-looking prospect depended heavily on the us.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
346
non-farm payrolls had increased by 257,000 in january so that, in net terms, over 1 million jobs had been created over a three month period – the largest increase in the number of people employed since 1997.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
856
the number of approvals for house purchase in july had been 111,000, the highest figure since the series was redefined in 1997.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
765
further steps were likely over coming weeks and months to alleviate strains in the euro area and to provide additional support for vulnerable member states as they sought to finance public and external deficits and to rebalance their economies.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
975
in the euro area, annual hicp inflation had increased to 7.5% in april, with core inflation at 3.5%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
643
the manpower survey of employment intentions had shown a sharp deterioration looking ahead to 1999 q1.
dovish
forward looking
certain
1,999
800
although export growth was often erratic from quarter to quarter, the underlying picture was reasonably encouraging.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
188
and some of the structured investment vehicles had less access to committed liquidity lines (although they would also have a higher proportion of medium-term funding).
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,007
671
little of this strength had reflected borrowing by telecommunications companies, which appeared to have borrowed primarily through issuing securities in the market.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,000
471
the slightly stronger-than-expected consumption numbers reflected the ons’ attempts to capture the changing seasonal pattern of car registrations.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
533
overseas holiday bookings had begun to recover but inbound tourism had remained weak.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,003
113