gtfintechlab/bank_of_england · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 26 588	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
consistent with this environment of heightened uncertainty, market intelligence suggested that some companies had paused or scaled back their investment plans.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	549
there had been further increases in the sterling price of oil and the wholesale gas futures curve had shifted upwards.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,008	476
althoughgross mortgage lending by banks and building societies had increased quite sharply over the last couple ofyears, the recent acceleration in net mortgage lending (to a twelve- month increase of 6.2% in june) was more modest.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,997	663
the weak us non-farm payrolls data for february and the madrid bombings had triggered falls in rates, but the strong us payrolls data for march had led to increases.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,004	820
(d) 2019 q4 data are outturns.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,020	736
input prices excluding food, drink, tobacco and petroleum had risen by 0.7% in may, taking the annual rate of inflation to 4.0%, its highest since november 1995.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	867
retail sales volumes had also rebounded in q2, and the reported sales balance for retailing in the cbi distributive trades survey had risen to just above its long-run average in july.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	32
in the second estimate for 2015 q1, headline gdp growth, at 0.3%, had not been revised, with upward revisions to industrial production and construction output offset by a weaker estimate of service sector growth.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	990
it could not sensibly be rolled forward indefinitely.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,000	676
the income and expenditure release of the national accounts also included a sharp fall in the figure for companies’ operating profits in the first quarter, which followed a fall in the fourth quarter.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,999	234
finally, it might be that companies were borrowing in order to invest overseas, and that some of this borrowing was held on deposit in the uk ahead of a prospective acquisition.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,000	833
french consumer expenditure on manufactured goods had increased by 1.6% in december compared with the previous month.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	892
a12 the number of loan approvals for house purchase, after adjusting for the number of working days in the month, had fallen to 115,000 in december compared with 121,000 in november.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	472
the twelve-month growth rate was 6.2%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	201
headline earnings growth in the private sector had increased by 0.7 percentage points, to 3.8%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	745
annual growth in secured lending was little changed, at almost 8%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,000	678
in the united kingdom, data over the month had been consistent with the committee’s expectation of a significant contraction in activity in the fourth quarter of 2008.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	959
the increase in non-farm payrolls in october had been somewhat higher than expected, although the unemployment rate had ticked up, to 3.6%.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	710
house prices had fallen sharply again, with both the halifax and nationwide indices declining by around 5% during the third quarter.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	159
the committee’s discussions focused on the news for consumption and investment.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,005	368
uk gdp growth slowed materially in 2019 compared to previous years and the mpc judges that there is a margin of spare capacity in the economy.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	185
the latest agents’ intelligence indicated that pay settlements over the second half of the year were, as expected, coming in at lower rates compared to h1, and 2025-expected settlements might be in a 2 to 4% range.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	728
but import growth had also remained strong, with the result that net trade had continued to make less of a contribution to gdp growth than the committee had previously expected.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	735
surveys remained generally, but not uniformly, strong, with the cips services business activity index at its highest level since 1997 and the manufacturing pmi at its highest since the end of 1999; and construction was also up strongly.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	492
in contrast, the halifax house price index had risen by 2.2% in january.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	505
in the near term, inflation would remain elevated on account of the increase in the standard rate of vat to 20% in january 2011.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	168
over coming months, cpi inflation was expected to remain close to 2%, dipping slightly below the target in the first quarter of the year before temporarily edging back above 2% in april.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	38
there had been few surprises in recent economic data and the february inflation report projections, conditioned on a gently rising path of bank rate, had appeared broadly on track.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	101
a24 the current account balance was -£3.2 billion in 1998 q1, the first quarterly deficit since q3 and the largest since 1992 q4.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,998	233
new results from the dmp suggested that the majority of companies reviewed their investment decisions at least once a quarter or more frequently, although a majority also took over one quarter to implement any change in plans.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	266
house price inflation had edged up slightly.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	470
the contribution of goods prices to twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen back only marginally in february.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	688
an international comparison of uncertainty measures showed the united kingdom to be an outlier.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,016	707
uk gdp growth was projected to pick up a little in early 2020.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	278
m4 lending (excluding securitisations) had grown by £9.7 billion (1.0%) in november, and the twelve-month growth rate had risen sharply to 8.4%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	570
as business investment in intellectual property, and ict, machinery and equipment had held up during 2020, there might not be as large an adverse effect on capital services and total factor productivity as was assumed in the may projections.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	670
but whereas in previous months it had inflated the growth rate, in the latest month there had been a net return of old 50p coins, depressing the monthly growth rate by an estimated 0.1pp.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,997	675
cpi inflation was likely to be somewhat lower in the near term, given the committee’s judgement to reduce the extent to which sterling’s depreciation was projected to push up import prices.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	144
cpi inflation had fallen to 1.7% in february.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	918
the fuels component of the index had fallen by 2.5% in october, largely accounted for by the fall of just over 4% in the average sterling oil price in the same month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	141
from mid-2023, inflation was expected to fall sharply, conditioned on the elevated path of market interest rates, and as previous increases in energy prices dropped out of the annual comparison.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	263
overall, bank staff had revised down their expectations for 2021 q4 gdp growth to 0.6%, from 1% at the time of the november report.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	128
intelligence from the bank’s agents suggested that, although there had been some early signs of a slowing in underlying growth, demand had remained mostly robust and broadly in line with projections at the time of the may report.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	607
looking forward, the price expectations in the royal institution of chartered surveyors remained weak and particulars delivered had fallen again in april.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	108
the hsbc composite pmis in both brazil and india had increased in june, possibly in part reflecting past policy easing.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	105
manufacturing pmis had been below 50 in august, in part driven by a drought in southern china that had been affecting electricity supply.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	35
annual regular pay growth in the private sector had increased from around 1% in mid-2014 to over 3% in spring 2015, but had moderated to 2.3% in the latest data for the three months to october.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	839
the picture from the surveys seemed consistent with reports from the bank’s regional agents.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,005	537
the committee’s latest projections assumed by convention that equity prices would rise from their current level in line with nominal gdp, and that the effects on activity and prices of their recent fall would be typical of past experience.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,003	495
most indicators of consumer spending had held up recently.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	979
that member thought that there was mounting evidence that firms were able to pass on cost increases to the prices they set and noted also that nominal domestic demand had been growing for some time at near to the top of its typical range prior to the recession.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	271
it was surprising, particularly given the recent downward revisions to consensus forecasts, and seemed to indicate a fair degree of market optimism that the us economy would recover strongly in the second half of next year.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,001	8
in that case, consumption might not soften as much as expected.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,002	737
this was 0.1 percentage points weaker than bank staff had anticipated immediately before the data release, and 0.3 percentage points weaker than the february inflation report projection.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	523
hence consumption growth might pick up after the weakness around the turn of the year.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,005	968
a continuation of the financial market turbulence could adversely affect credit conditions to the extent that there was a deterioration in the terms on which banks could access funds.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	279
those increases had been more marked at shorter horizons, but five year inflation swap rates, five years forward, had risen to their highest level since 2010.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	853
whole‑economy total labour costs divided by gdp at constant prices, based on the mode of the mpc’s gdp backcast.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	899
in the united states, the federal reserve had operationalised a number of new facilities financed by the cares act.	irrelevant	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	282
it has been lower than real wage growth (chart 2.20).	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	758
the labour market was still quite tight but was no longer obviously tightening, and underlying pay pressures appeared stable.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	375
a measure of gdp which excluded these volatile sectors (which account for around 6% of gdp) showed growth continuing at above trend rates of around 0.8% per quarter in 1997 h2.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	937
this had been the lowest rise in employment since 2000 q4.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	92
twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen to 2.6% in june, from 2.9% in may, in line with the committee’s expectation at the time of the may inflation report.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	371
the european council had agreed a draft directive on banking resolution and recovery, and euro-area governments had finalised the conditions for any deployment of funds from the european stability mechanism to support individual euro-area banks.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	190
point estimates are constructed by using values of 0, 0.5, 3, 8 and 15 for the respective categories.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,020	546
the employment rate was broadly unchanged.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	804
a27 the cips report on services had reported a rise in all indices in march: the output index had risen from 49.5 to 53, the first positive reading since october 1998; the incoming new business index had also risen above 50 to 53.9, the highest level since june 1998 and above the average for 1998 as whole; and the business expectations index had risen to 76.4 from 72.1 in february.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	325
market expectations of official uk rates implied by overnight indexed swap rates had been that uk official rates would be increased by 25 basis points at the may meeting.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,004	568
a43 house price growth appeared to have slowed further in most regions.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,000	404
that could have reflected the relaxation of constraints on workers’ choice of hours, allowing more to opt to go part-time, or labour hoarding by employers during a cyclical slowdown; a reversal of the trend was more likely if the latter were the case.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,003	352
labour productivity growth has been persistently weak since the financial crisis, and has been generally lower than the mpc’s forecasts.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	866
further out, risks to gdp were judged to be broadly balanced.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	208
the bank’s latest decision maker panel (dmp), conducted over the period from 6 to 20 march, indicated that many businesses expected covid-19 to have a large negative impact on sales over the next year.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	679
the latest official data had made that contrast greater.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,005	145
this may have partly been explained by the unwinding of the effect on households’ m4 of scottish widows windfall payments.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,000	567
however, updated staff analysis and reports from the agents’ contacts suggested that food price inflation was likely to fall back more slowly than previously expected.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	793
indicators of consumer spending growth had remained weak, consistent with the squeeze on real disposable incomes.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	6
the ons were continuing to do further work to extend the analysis, by adding to the detail and assessing the sensitivity of the results.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,007	329
recent announcements of further monetary and fiscal stimulus were likely to boost the outlook for activity and inflation.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,010	857
the twelve-month growth rate of m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had also risen, to 10.7% in december from 10.4% in november.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	653
the implied path of sterling, us dollar and euro official interest rates had flattened significantly since the august inflation _report, apparently in response to weaker perceived global growth prospects, linked partly to higher oil_ prices.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,004	612
for example, there were tentative signs in some of the housing activity indicators that the market might be turning, although some of the recent weakening might be due to millennium effects.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,000	104
during its policy meeting, the committee had received a briefing from the deputy governor responsible for financial stability on the financial policy committee’s (fpc) most recent assessment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	21
nevertheless, the citi/yougov five-to-ten year ahead measure had matched its previous record high recorded in june 2011.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	517
as permitted under the bank of england act 1998, as amended by the bank of england and financial services act 2016, diana noble was present on 20 january, as an observer for the purpose of exercising oversight functions in her role as a member of the bank’s court of directors.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,020	514
first, cpi inflation was at present significantly below target and, on the central projection, would remain below it for most of the next two years.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,004	69
in the mpc’s latest most likely, or modal, projections, cpi inflation was expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 q2 before increasing again in q3 and q4.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	165
oil prices had reached another record high, and wheat prices had risen sharply.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	301
the shift in market rates had tightened monetary conditions further, but the change in bank rate over the previous year had largely been a withdrawal of an accommodative policy stance and it was not so surprising that demand growth had not yet slowed in response.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,007	648
a54 the sterling eri had been broadly stable since the committee’s previous meeting, rising by 0.5% to 105.0.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	66
the news from the united states had probably been to the downside for the committee over the month, though not by enough to change its views on the outlook for the us economy to a significant extent.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	680
but that had in large part come at the expense of severe recessions and high unemployment in some countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	900
market contacts reported increasing doubt that the greek government would be able to access private capital market funding by the spring of 2012 as planned.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	450
the bank of japan’s tankan large manufacturers’ diffusion index had fallen by 1 point, to –10, but the large non-manufacturers’ diffusion index had increased by 2 points, to –14.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	68
that suggests that average hours are around their ‘desired’ or equilibrium level.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	700
money and credit data had provided ambiguous signals too.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,005	483
the 2% fall on the quarter had been largely driven by a sharp drop in extraction investment, a consequence of low oil prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	729
some measures of the longer-term inflation expectations of households had risen over the past year.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	734
the governor bank of england threadneedle street london ec2r 8ah remit for the monetary policy committee the bank of england act came into effect on june 1.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	1,998	58

consistent with this environment of heightened uncertainty, market intelligence suggested that some companies had paused or scaled back their investment plans.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

549

there had been further increases in the sterling price of oil and the wholesale gas futures curve had shifted upwards.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,008

476

althoughgross mortgage lending by banks and building societies had increased quite sharply over the last couple ofyears, the recent acceleration in net mortgage lending (to a twelve- month increase of 6.2% in june) was more modest.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,997

663

the weak us non-farm payrolls data for february and the madrid bombings had triggered falls in rates, but the strong us payrolls data for march had led to increases.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,004

820

(d) 2019 q4 data are outturns.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,020

736

input prices excluding food, drink, tobacco and petroleum had risen by 0.7% in may, taking the annual rate of inflation to 4.0%, its highest since november 1995.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

867

retail sales volumes had also rebounded in q2, and the reported sales balance for retailing in the cbi distributive trades survey had risen to just above its long-run average in july.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

32

in the second estimate for 2015 q1, headline gdp growth, at 0.3%, had not been revised, with upward revisions to industrial production and construction output offset by a weaker estimate of service sector growth.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

990

it could not sensibly be rolled forward indefinitely.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,000

676

the income and expenditure release of the national accounts also included a sharp fall in the figure for companies’ operating profits in the first quarter, which followed a fall in the fourth quarter.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,999

234

finally, it might be that companies were borrowing in order to invest overseas, and that some of this borrowing was held on deposit in the uk ahead of a prospective acquisition.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,000

833

french consumer expenditure on manufactured goods had increased by 1.6% in december compared with the previous month.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

892

a12 the number of loan approvals for house purchase, after adjusting for the number of working days in the month, had fallen to 115,000 in december compared with 121,000 in november.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

472

the twelve-month growth rate was 6.2%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,999

201

headline earnings growth in the private sector had increased by 0.7 percentage points, to 3.8%.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

745

annual growth in secured lending was little changed, at almost 8%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,000

678

in the united kingdom, data over the month had been consistent with the committee’s expectation of a significant contraction in activity in the fourth quarter of 2008.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,009

959

the increase in non-farm payrolls in october had been somewhat higher than expected, although the unemployment rate had ticked up, to 3.6%.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

710

house prices had fallen sharply again, with both the halifax and nationwide indices declining by around 5% during the third quarter.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

159

the committee’s discussions focused on the news for consumption and investment.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,005

368

uk gdp growth slowed materially in 2019 compared to previous years and the mpc judges that there is a margin of spare capacity in the economy.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

185

the latest agents’ intelligence indicated that pay settlements over the second half of the year were, as expected, coming in at lower rates compared to h1, and 2025-expected settlements might be in a 2 to 4% range.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

728

but import growth had also remained strong, with the result that net trade had continued to make less of a contribution to gdp growth than the committee had previously expected.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

735

surveys remained generally, but not uniformly, strong, with the cips services business activity index at its highest level since 1997 and the manufacturing pmi at its highest since the end of 1999; and construction was also up strongly.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

492

in contrast, the halifax house price index had risen by 2.2% in january.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

505

in the near term, inflation would remain elevated on account of the increase in the standard rate of vat to 20% in january 2011.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,010

168

over coming months, cpi inflation was expected to remain close to 2%, dipping slightly below the target in the first quarter of the year before temporarily edging back above 2% in april.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

38

there had been few surprises in recent economic data and the february inflation report projections, conditioned on a gently rising path of bank rate, had appeared broadly on track.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

101

a24 the current account balance was -£3.2 billion in 1998 q1, the first quarterly deficit since q3 and the largest since 1992 q4.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,998

233

new results from the dmp suggested that the majority of companies reviewed their investment decisions at least once a quarter or more frequently, although a majority also took over one quarter to implement any change in plans.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

266

house price inflation had edged up slightly.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

470

the contribution of goods prices to twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen back only marginally in february.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

688

an international comparison of uncertainty measures showed the united kingdom to be an outlier.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,016

707

uk gdp growth was projected to pick up a little in early 2020.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,020

278

m4 lending (excluding securitisations) had grown by £9.7 billion (1.0%) in november, and the twelve-month growth rate had risen sharply to 8.4%.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

570

as business investment in intellectual property, and ict, machinery and equipment had held up during 2020, there might not be as large an adverse effect on capital services and total factor productivity as was assumed in the may projections.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

670

but whereas in previous months it had inflated the growth rate, in the latest month there had been a net return of old 50p coins, depressing the monthly growth rate by an estimated 0.1pp.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,997

675

cpi inflation was likely to be somewhat lower in the near term, given the committee’s judgement to reduce the extent to which sterling’s depreciation was projected to push up import prices.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

144

cpi inflation had fallen to 1.7% in february.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

918

the fuels component of the index had fallen by 2.5% in october, largely accounted for by the fall of just over 4% in the average sterling oil price in the same month.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

141

from mid-2023, inflation was expected to fall sharply, conditioned on the elevated path of market interest rates, and as previous increases in energy prices dropped out of the annual comparison.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

263

overall, bank staff had revised down their expectations for 2021 q4 gdp growth to 0.6%, from 1% at the time of the november report.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

128

intelligence from the bank’s agents suggested that, although there had been some early signs of a slowing in underlying growth, demand had remained mostly robust and broadly in line with projections at the time of the may report.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

607

looking forward, the price expectations in the royal institution of chartered surveyors remained weak and particulars delivered had fallen again in april.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

108

the hsbc composite pmis in both brazil and india had increased in june, possibly in part reflecting past policy easing.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

105

manufacturing pmis had been below 50 in august, in part driven by a drought in southern china that had been affecting electricity supply.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

35

annual regular pay growth in the private sector had increased from around 1% in mid-2014 to over 3% in spring 2015, but had moderated to 2.3% in the latest data for the three months to october.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

839

the picture from the surveys seemed consistent with reports from the bank’s regional agents.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,005

537

the committee’s latest projections assumed by convention that equity prices would rise from their current level in line with nominal gdp, and that the effects on activity and prices of their recent fall would be typical of past experience.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,003

495

most indicators of consumer spending had held up recently.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

979

that member thought that there was mounting evidence that firms were able to pass on cost increases to the prices they set and noted also that nominal domestic demand had been growing for some time at near to the top of its typical range prior to the recession.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

271

it was surprising, particularly given the recent downward revisions to consensus forecasts, and seemed to indicate a fair degree of market optimism that the us economy would recover strongly in the second half of next year.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,001

8

in that case, consumption might not soften as much as expected.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,002

737

this was 0.1 percentage points weaker than bank staff had anticipated immediately before the data release, and 0.3 percentage points weaker than the february inflation report projection.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

523

hence consumption growth might pick up after the weakness around the turn of the year.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,005

968

a continuation of the financial market turbulence could adversely affect credit conditions to the extent that there was a deterioration in the terms on which banks could access funds.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

279

those increases had been more marked at shorter horizons, but five year inflation swap rates, five years forward, had risen to their highest level since 2010.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

853

whole‑economy total labour costs divided by gdp at constant prices, based on the mode of the mpc’s gdp backcast.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

899

in the united states, the federal reserve had operationalised a number of new facilities financed by the cares act.

irrelevant

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

282

it has been lower than real wage growth (chart 2.20).

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

758

the labour market was still quite tight but was no longer obviously tightening, and underlying pay pressures appeared stable.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,001

375

a measure of gdp which excluded these volatile sectors (which account for around 6% of gdp) showed growth continuing at above trend rates of around 0.8% per quarter in 1997 h2.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

937

this had been the lowest rise in employment since 2000 q4.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

92

twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen to 2.6% in june, from 2.9% in may, in line with the committee’s expectation at the time of the may inflation report.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

371

the european council had agreed a draft directive on banking resolution and recovery, and euro-area governments had finalised the conditions for any deployment of funds from the european stability mechanism to support individual euro-area banks.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,013

190

point estimates are constructed by using values of 0, 0.5, 3, 8 and 15 for the respective categories.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,020

546

the employment rate was broadly unchanged.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,006

804

a27 the cips report on services had reported a rise in all indices in march: the output index had risen from 49.5 to 53, the first positive reading since october 1998; the incoming new business index had also risen above 50 to 53.9, the highest level since june 1998 and above the average for 1998 as whole; and the business expectations index had risen to 76.4 from 72.1 in february.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

325

market expectations of official uk rates implied by overnight indexed swap rates had been that uk official rates would be increased by 25 basis points at the may meeting.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,004

568

a43 house price growth appeared to have slowed further in most regions.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,000

404

that could have reflected the relaxation of constraints on workers’ choice of hours, allowing more to opt to go part-time, or labour hoarding by employers during a cyclical slowdown; a reversal of the trend was more likely if the latter were the case.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,003

352

labour productivity growth has been persistently weak since the financial crisis, and has been generally lower than the mpc’s forecasts.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

866

further out, risks to gdp were judged to be broadly balanced.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

208

the bank’s latest decision maker panel (dmp), conducted over the period from 6 to 20 march, indicated that many businesses expected covid-19 to have a large negative impact on sales over the next year.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

679

the latest official data had made that contrast greater.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,005

145

this may have partly been explained by the unwinding of the effect on households’ m4 of scottish widows windfall payments.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,000

567

however, updated staff analysis and reports from the agents’ contacts suggested that food price inflation was likely to fall back more slowly than previously expected.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

793

indicators of consumer spending growth had remained weak, consistent with the squeeze on real disposable incomes.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

6

the ons were continuing to do further work to extend the analysis, by adding to the detail and assessing the sensitivity of the results.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,007

329

recent announcements of further monetary and fiscal stimulus were likely to boost the outlook for activity and inflation.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,010

857

the twelve-month growth rate of m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had also risen, to 10.7% in december from 10.4% in november.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

653

the implied path of sterling, us dollar and euro official interest rates had flattened significantly since the august inflation _report, apparently in response to weaker perceived global growth prospects, linked partly to higher oil_ prices.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,004

612

for example, there were tentative signs in some of the housing activity indicators that the market might be turning, although some of the recent weakening might be due to millennium effects.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,000

104

during its policy meeting, the committee had received a briefing from the deputy governor responsible for financial stability on the financial policy committee’s (fpc) most recent assessment.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

21

nevertheless, the citi/yougov five-to-ten year ahead measure had matched its previous record high recorded in june 2011.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

517

as permitted under the bank of england act 1998, as amended by the bank of england and financial services act 2016, diana noble was present on 20 january, as an observer for the purpose of exercising oversight functions in her role as a member of the bank’s court of directors.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,020

514

first, cpi inflation was at present significantly below target and, on the central projection, would remain below it for most of the next two years.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,004

69

in the mpc’s latest most likely, or modal, projections, cpi inflation was expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 q2 before increasing again in q3 and q4.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

165

oil prices had reached another record high, and wheat prices had risen sharply.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

301

the shift in market rates had tightened monetary conditions further, but the change in bank rate over the previous year had largely been a withdrawal of an accommodative policy stance and it was not so surprising that demand growth had not yet slowed in response.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,007

648

a54 the sterling eri had been broadly stable since the committee’s previous meeting, rising by 0.5% to 105.0.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,001

66

the news from the united states had probably been to the downside for the committee over the month, though not by enough to change its views on the outlook for the us economy to a significant extent.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

680

but that had in large part come at the expense of severe recessions and high unemployment in some countries.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

900

market contacts reported increasing doubt that the greek government would be able to access private capital market funding by the spring of 2012 as planned.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

450

the bank of japan’s tankan large manufacturers’ diffusion index had fallen by 1 point, to –10, but the large non-manufacturers’ diffusion index had increased by 2 points, to –14.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,003

68

that suggests that average hours are around their ‘desired’ or equilibrium level.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

700

money and credit data had provided ambiguous signals too.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,005

483

the 2% fall on the quarter had been largely driven by a sharp drop in extraction investment, a consequence of low oil prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

729

some measures of the longer-term inflation expectations of households had risen over the past year.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

734

the governor bank of england threadneedle street london ec2r 8ah remit for the monetary policy committee the bank of england act came into effect on june 1.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

1,998

58