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consistent with this environment of heightened uncertainty, market intelligence suggested that some companies had paused or scaled back their investment plans. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 549 |
there had been further increases in the sterling price of oil and the wholesale gas futures curve had shifted upwards. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 476 |
althoughgross mortgage lending by banks and building societies had increased quite sharply over the last couple ofyears, the recent acceleration in net mortgage lending (to a twelve- month increase of 6.2% in june) was more modest. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,997 | 663 |
the weak us non-farm payrolls data for february and the madrid bombings had triggered falls in rates, but the strong us payrolls data for march had led to increases. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 820 |
(d) 2019 q4 data are outturns. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 736 |
input prices excluding food, drink, tobacco and petroleum had risen by 0.7% in may, taking the annual rate of inflation to 4.0%, its highest since november 1995. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 867 |
retail sales volumes had also rebounded in q2, and the reported sales balance for retailing in the cbi distributive trades survey had risen to just above its long-run average in july. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 32 |
in the second estimate for 2015 q1, headline gdp growth, at 0.3%, had not been revised, with upward revisions to industrial production and construction output offset by a weaker estimate of service sector growth. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 990 |
it could not sensibly be rolled forward indefinitely. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 676 |
the income and expenditure release of the national accounts also included a sharp fall in the figure for companies’ operating profits in the first quarter, which followed a fall in the fourth quarter. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,999 | 234 |
finally, it might be that companies were borrowing in order to invest overseas, and that some of this borrowing was held on deposit in the uk ahead of a prospective acquisition. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 833 |
french consumer expenditure on manufactured goods had increased by 1.6% in december compared with the previous month. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 892 |
a12 the number of loan approvals for house purchase, after adjusting for the number of working days in the month, had fallen to 115,000 in december compared with 121,000 in november. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 472 |
the twelve-month growth rate was 6.2%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 201 |
headline earnings growth in the private sector had increased by 0.7 percentage points, to 3.8%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 745 |
annual growth in secured lending was little changed, at almost 8%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 678 |
in the united kingdom, data over the month had been consistent with the committee’s expectation of a significant contraction in activity in the fourth quarter of 2008. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 959 |
the increase in non-farm payrolls in october had been somewhat higher than expected, although the unemployment rate had ticked up, to 3.6%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 710 |
house prices had fallen sharply again, with both the halifax and nationwide indices declining by around 5% during the third quarter. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 159 |
the committee’s discussions focused on the news for consumption and investment. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 368 |
uk gdp growth slowed materially in 2019 compared to previous years and the mpc judges that there is a margin of spare capacity in the economy. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 185 |
the latest agents’ intelligence indicated that pay settlements over the second half of the year were, as expected, coming in at lower rates compared to h1, and 2025-expected settlements might be in a 2 to 4% range. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 728 |
but import growth had also remained strong, with the result that net trade had continued to make less of a contribution to gdp growth than the committee had previously expected. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 735 |
surveys remained generally, but not uniformly, strong, with the cips services business activity index at its highest level since 1997 and the manufacturing pmi at its highest since the end of 1999; and construction was also up strongly. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 492 |
in contrast, the halifax house price index had risen by 2.2% in january. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 505 |
in the near term, inflation would remain elevated on account of the increase in the standard rate of vat to 20% in january 2011. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 168 |
over coming months, cpi inflation was expected to remain close to 2%, dipping slightly below the target in the first quarter of the year before temporarily edging back above 2% in april. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 38 |
there had been few surprises in recent economic data and the february inflation report projections, conditioned on a gently rising path of bank rate, had appeared broadly on track. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 101 |
a24 the current account balance was -£3.2 billion in 1998 q1, the first quarterly deficit since q3 and the largest since 1992 q4. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 233 |
new results from the dmp suggested that the majority of companies reviewed their investment decisions at least once a quarter or more frequently, although a majority also took over one quarter to implement any change in plans. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 266 |
house price inflation had edged up slightly. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 470 |
the contribution of goods prices to twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen back only marginally in february. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 688 |
an international comparison of uncertainty measures showed the united kingdom to be an outlier. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 707 |
uk gdp growth was projected to pick up a little in early 2020. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 278 |
m4 lending (excluding securitisations) had grown by £9.7 billion (1.0%) in november, and the twelve-month growth rate had risen sharply to 8.4%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 570 |
as business investment in intellectual property, and ict, machinery and equipment had held up during 2020, there might not be as large an adverse effect on capital services and total factor productivity as was assumed in the may projections. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 670 |
but whereas in previous months it had inflated the growth rate, in the latest month there had been a net return of old 50p coins, depressing the monthly growth rate by an estimated 0.1pp. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,997 | 675 |
cpi inflation was likely to be somewhat lower in the near term, given the committee’s judgement to reduce the extent to which sterling’s depreciation was projected to push up import prices. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 144 |
cpi inflation had fallen to 1.7% in february. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 918 |
the fuels component of the index had fallen by 2.5% in october, largely accounted for by the fall of just over 4% in the average sterling oil price in the same month. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 141 |
from mid-2023, inflation was expected to fall sharply, conditioned on the elevated path of market interest rates, and as previous increases in energy prices dropped out of the annual comparison. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 263 |
overall, bank staff had revised down their expectations for 2021 q4 gdp growth to 0.6%, from 1% at the time of the november report. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 128 |
intelligence from the bank’s agents suggested that, although there had been some early signs of a slowing in underlying growth, demand had remained mostly robust and broadly in line with projections at the time of the may report. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 607 |
looking forward, the price expectations in the royal institution of chartered surveyors remained weak and particulars delivered had fallen again in april. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 108 |
the hsbc composite pmis in both brazil and india had increased in june, possibly in part reflecting past policy easing. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 105 |
manufacturing pmis had been below 50 in august, in part driven by a drought in southern china that had been affecting electricity supply. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 35 |
annual regular pay growth in the private sector had increased from around 1% in mid-2014 to over 3% in spring 2015, but had moderated to 2.3% in the latest data for the three months to october. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 839 |
the picture from the surveys seemed consistent with reports from the bank’s regional agents. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 537 |
the committee’s latest projections assumed by convention that equity prices would rise from their current level in line with nominal gdp, and that the effects on activity and prices of their recent fall would be typical of past experience. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 495 |
most indicators of consumer spending had held up recently. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 979 |
that member thought that there was mounting evidence that firms were able to pass on cost increases to the prices they set and noted also that nominal domestic demand had been growing for some time at near to the top of its typical range prior to the recession. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 271 |
it was surprising, particularly given the recent downward revisions to consensus forecasts, and seemed to indicate a fair degree of market optimism that the us economy would recover strongly in the second half of next year. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 8 |
in that case, consumption might not soften as much as expected. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,002 | 737 |
this was 0.1 percentage points weaker than bank staff had anticipated immediately before the data release, and 0.3 percentage points weaker than the february inflation report projection. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 523 |
hence consumption growth might pick up after the weakness around the turn of the year. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,005 | 968 |
a continuation of the financial market turbulence could adversely affect credit conditions to the extent that there was a deterioration in the terms on which banks could access funds. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 279 |
those increases had been more marked at shorter horizons, but five year inflation swap rates, five years forward, had risen to their highest level since 2010. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 853 |
whole‑economy total labour costs divided by gdp at constant prices, based on the mode of the mpc’s gdp backcast. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 899 |
in the united states, the federal reserve had operationalised a number of new facilities financed by the cares act. | irrelevant | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 282 |
it has been lower than real wage growth (chart 2.20). | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 758 |
the labour market was still quite tight but was no longer obviously tightening, and underlying pay pressures appeared stable. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 375 |
a measure of gdp which excluded these volatile sectors (which account for around 6% of gdp) showed growth continuing at above trend rates of around 0.8% per quarter in 1997 h2. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 937 |
this had been the lowest rise in employment since 2000 q4. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 92 |
twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen to 2.6% in june, from 2.9% in may, in line with the committee’s expectation at the time of the may inflation report. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 371 |
the european council had agreed a draft directive on banking resolution and recovery, and euro-area governments had finalised the conditions for any deployment of funds from the european stability mechanism to support individual euro-area banks. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 190 |
point estimates are constructed by using values of 0, 0.5, 3, 8 and 15 for the respective categories. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 546 |
the employment rate was broadly unchanged. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 804 |
a27 the cips report on services had reported a rise in all indices in march: the output index had risen from 49.5 to 53, the first positive reading since october 1998; the incoming new business index had also risen above 50 to 53.9, the highest level since june 1998 and above the average for 1998 as whole; and the business expectations index had risen to 76.4 from 72.1 in february. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 325 |
market expectations of official uk rates implied by overnight indexed swap rates had been that uk official rates would be increased by 25 basis points at the may meeting. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 568 |
a43 house price growth appeared to have slowed further in most regions. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 404 |
that could have reflected the relaxation of constraints on workers’ choice of hours, allowing more to opt to go part-time, or labour hoarding by employers during a cyclical slowdown; a reversal of the trend was more likely if the latter were the case. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 352 |
labour productivity growth has been persistently weak since the financial crisis, and has been generally lower than the mpc’s forecasts. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 866 |
further out, risks to gdp were judged to be broadly balanced. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 208 |
the bank’s latest decision maker panel (dmp), conducted over the period from 6 to 20 march, indicated that many businesses expected covid-19 to have a large negative impact on sales over the next year. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 679 |
the latest official data had made that contrast greater. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 145 |
this may have partly been explained by the unwinding of the effect on households’ m4 of scottish widows windfall payments. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 567 |
however, updated staff analysis and reports from the agents’ contacts suggested that food price inflation was likely to fall back more slowly than previously expected. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 793 |
indicators of consumer spending growth had remained weak, consistent with the squeeze on real disposable incomes. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 6 |
the ons were continuing to do further work to extend the analysis, by adding to the detail and assessing the sensitivity of the results. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 329 |
recent announcements of further monetary and fiscal stimulus were likely to boost the outlook for activity and inflation. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 857 |
the twelve-month growth rate of m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had also risen, to 10.7% in december from 10.4% in november. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 653 |
the implied path of sterling, us dollar and euro official interest rates had flattened significantly since the august inflation _report, apparently in response to weaker perceived global growth prospects, linked partly to higher oil_ prices. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 612 |
for example, there were tentative signs in some of the housing activity indicators that the market might be turning, although some of the recent weakening might be due to millennium effects. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 104 |
during its policy meeting, the committee had received a briefing from the deputy governor responsible for financial stability on the financial policy committee’s (fpc) most recent assessment. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 21 |
nevertheless, the citi/yougov five-to-ten year ahead measure had matched its previous record high recorded in june 2011. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 517 |
as permitted under the bank of england act 1998, as amended by the bank of england and financial services act 2016, diana noble was present on 20 january, as an observer for the purpose of exercising oversight functions in her role as a member of the bank’s court of directors. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 514 |
first, cpi inflation was at present significantly below target and, on the central projection, would remain below it for most of the next two years. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 69 |
in the mpc’s latest most likely, or modal, projections, cpi inflation was expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 q2 before increasing again in q3 and q4. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 165 |
oil prices had reached another record high, and wheat prices had risen sharply. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 301 |
the shift in market rates had tightened monetary conditions further, but the change in bank rate over the previous year had largely been a withdrawal of an accommodative policy stance and it was not so surprising that demand growth had not yet slowed in response. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 648 |
a54 the sterling eri had been broadly stable since the committee’s previous meeting, rising by 0.5% to 105.0. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 66 |
the news from the united states had probably been to the downside for the committee over the month, though not by enough to change its views on the outlook for the us economy to a significant extent. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 680 |
but that had in large part come at the expense of severe recessions and high unemployment in some countries. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 900 |
market contacts reported increasing doubt that the greek government would be able to access private capital market funding by the spring of 2012 as planned. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 450 |
the bank of japan’s tankan large manufacturers’ diffusion index had fallen by 1 point, to –10, but the large non-manufacturers’ diffusion index had increased by 2 points, to –14. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 68 |
that suggests that average hours are around their ‘desired’ or equilibrium level. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 700 |
money and credit data had provided ambiguous signals too. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 483 |
the 2% fall on the quarter had been largely driven by a sharp drop in extraction investment, a consequence of low oil prices. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 729 |
some measures of the longer-term inflation expectations of households had risen over the past year. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 734 |
the governor bank of england threadneedle street london ec2r 8ah remit for the monetary policy committee the bank of england act came into effect on june 1. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 58 |
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