Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_england

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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1
999
the chartered institute of purchasing and supply (cips) surveys of business activity in manufacturing and services had both fallen in june but remained at healthy levels.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
134
as the outlook for demand remained subdued, with vacancies continuing to fall and nominal pay growth easing, the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the target in the medium term were to the downside.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
522
recent regulatory statements and actions by the pra, fpc and fca might also have led to a tightening of credit conditions for some borrowers, although it was too early to judge how pronounced this would prove to be.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
422
the economist dollar non-oil commodity price index had risen by 1.5%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
239
the harsh winter had almost certainly played a part in temporarily depressing activity and, based on data on household consumption in april and may, bank staff’s estimate of growth in the second quarter was 0.8%.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,014
996
the most striking development in the past month had been the sharp rise in the price of oil: up over 17% in sterling terms.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
146
agents’ reports continued to suggest that inward migration was playing a role in curbing labour shortages.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
218
well publicised job cuts in a range of sectors, whether or not directly affected by general economic conditions, had probably increased awareness of the changing outlook.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
1,998
290
in response to social distancing measures, some people might be able to work from home.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
783
german manufacturing orders had fallen in january by 3.9% on the month.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
473
the negative skew (measured by the difference between mean and mode) in the probabilities attached to future levels of the ft-se 100, which had worsened dramatically with the outbreak of the asian crisis, had returned to its five year average level over the month.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
1,998
315
that judgement also reflects that monetary policy will act to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored around the 2% target.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
815
the first concerned the meaning of the fan charts published in the inflation report.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
1,998
909
conditions elsewhere in the euro area were generally rather more robust, although business confidence was less buoyant even in france and euro-area industrial production had fallen in january; a slowdown in the telecommunications sector might also hold back growth.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,001
934
most other forecasters did not appear to assume a continuation of a downward trend in the stock-output ratio.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,000
402
however the recent fall in oil prices could help to offset these pressures through lower petrol prices.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
510
twelve-month cpi inflation fell to 3.4% in february from 4.0% in january and december, a little below the expectation in the february monetary policy report.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
732
equity prices, as measured by the ft-se 100 index, had risen by a further 4.1% since 5 june from 4576 to 4762 on 9 july, though the ft-se 250 index had fallen by 1.6%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
1,997
26
the outlook for the economy, and particularly the relative movement in demand and supply during the recovery from the pandemic, remained unusually uncertain.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
39
some businesses had probably sought to offset some of the increases in the costs of imports by cutting back on their wage bills.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
86
slower employment growth, along with the upward revisions to the gdp data over the past year meant that productivity growth had appeared less weak than previously.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,015
47
perhaps consistent with that, there had been a rise in lending rates on some mortgage products with ltv ratios at or below 75% recently.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
807
and the news was such that it was difficult to form a quantitative assessment of the overall impact on the medium-term inflation projection and of the size of any interest rate increase that might be required.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
1,998
957
overall, although annual unit wage cost growth had increased over the past few quarters, probably reflecting the past tightening of the labour market, it remained lower than would be consistent with meeting the 2% inflation target in the medium term, were it to persist at current rates, even if external influences were no longer weighing on inflation at that horizon.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
903
the recent financial reporting season for european banks had not produced any major unexpected losses or problems with reported capital buffers.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
526
although house prices were rising, so far this seemed consistent with the reduction in interest rates since october.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
933
this would tend to increase the relative prices of those assets, and hence wealth, and would, by stimulating the demand for corporate credit instruments, improve the supply of funds to the corporate sector.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
454
the twelve-month rate of aggregate broad money growth had fallen to 5.6% in june, the lowest since march 1995.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
606
this lessened the trade-off that the mpc was required to balance and, all else equal, reduced the mpc’s tolerance of above-target inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
941
the euro-area purchasing managers’ index (pmi) for manufacturing had risen slightly in october, to 49.1, from 48.9 in september.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,002
298
external demand growth might slacken, in particular if oil prices were to rise even more sharply.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,004
702
a23 the nationwide house price index had risen by 2.1% in april, while the halifax house price index had risen by 1.8%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
142
export growth had been stronger than anticipated in april and may.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
273
while modest by historical standards, that growth rate exceeded the diminished rate of supply growth of the economy, which was projected to be around 1½% per year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
943
in the third quarter there had been a marked accumulation of manufacturing inventories of finished goods, while retail inventories had been growing steadily over the year.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
1,998
223
cpi inflation in march was 3.1%, with an unexpectedly strong upside contribution from household goods prices in general and furniture in particular.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
154
while the market-implied path was a little higher than the maps median, the gap between these measures had narrowed since the previous maps survey, conducted in mid-october.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
103
a59 information from options markets had shown that the one-month implied volatility for $/yen was typically higher than for $/mark.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
1,998
724
the possibility of a substantial further retrenchment by the household sector was perhaps one of the biggest downside risks facing the economy.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
369
but the balance of manufacturers expecting to increase investment was the most negative since october 1992 according to the cbi.
dovish
forward looking
certain
1,998
502
downward bias in early estimates of gdp growth had, historically, been particularly marked in q1s; quarters affected by heavy snowfall had, in the past, been subject to above-average upward revisions; and construction sector output estimates had, in recent years, tended to be revised up over time.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
44
a fuller analysis of the implications of the new information contained in blue book 2015 would be possible as the committee prepared its november inflation report projections.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
532
on the other hand, it was possible that the substantial scale of the economic stimulus in train could prompt a rapid rebound in economic activity.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
106
that slowdown reflects weaker global growth, driven by trade protectionism, and the domestic impact of brexit-related uncertainties.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
558
although m4 growth had now reached 12%, m4 lending growth had not kept pace but rather remained steady, at around 9%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
1,997
259
this reflected the view that accumulating inflationary pressures would surface after a period in which measured inflation was held back by a series of specific price level changes.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
1,999
616
surveys of labour shortages had indicated a sharp increase in shortages reported in consumer services and a fall in clerical shortages reported in financial services.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
114
the volume of sales balance had been at its weakest since january 1999.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
795
the kpmg/rec survey had indicated that staff availability had increased further in may.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
338
this return to home markets appeared to have been quite pronounced.
irrelevant
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
155
the euler trade indemnity survey had indicated that competitive pressures had somewhat reduced respondents’ profitability since early 1999.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
186
it was not possible, however, precisely to disentangle the factors driving these exchange rate movements.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
222
the bank’s twelve-month aei weighted mean had been unchanged at 3.0% in september.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
162
house prices continued to rise rapidly, with the twelve month rate on both the halifax and nationwide indices above 10%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
862
on their own, the latest industrial production data would imply a downward revision of perhaps 0.1% to estimated gdp in q4.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
1,998
87
public sector earnings growth had been unchanged at 3.4%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
569
more recently, retail sales had risen in august, and the fall in july had been revised away.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
164
sterling money market instruments implied that interest rate expectations were broadly flat over the next year or so.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,006
90
the committee considered how the news over the past month affected this assessment.
irrelevant
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
843
although often subject to erratic movements, goods exports had grown sharply in october and had not fallen back as much as expected in november.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
945
a34 the overall cips employment index for may had improved slightly on the previous month, but had remained below the ‘no-change’ level of 50.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,003
775
a 25 basis point increase in bank rate was fully priced into overnight index swap_ rates by may 2015, a little later than at the time of the committee’s previous meeting, and the median respondent to the reuters survey had put a 30% probability on there being a rate rise during 2014, down from 40% the previous month.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
762
the committee discussed recent developments with particular emphasis on the external environment; the chancellor’s announcement on the economic and fiscal strategy report; domestic demand; output and unemployment; and nominal variables, particularly prices and earnings.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
1,998
354
the number of lfs employees had risen by 39,000 over this period and also by 26,000 since the onset of the pandemic.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
748
both the consensus economics and treasury surveys for rpix inflation in 2001 had been unchanged at 1.9%, the lowest level since 1997.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
29
the cips services survey had pointed to rising output prices in may: the average prices charged index rose to 54.6, from 53.5 in april.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
840
excluding the factor cost adjustment, gdp at market prices grew by 0.8% in q1.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,998
544
this was a precautionary step to provide additional flexibility in the bank’s provision of liquidity insurance, complementing banks’ ability to draw on their own liquidity buffers.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,016
287
but since the mpc’s october meeting, sterling had increased by 2.1% (on an effective basis) and was now broadly in line with the august forecast.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,997
727
these scarring effects on demand would be greater the longer that the current conditions of infection, restriction and uncertainty persisted.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
703
employment growth was particularly robust in the fourth quarter and this would support consumption.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,007
626
input prices excluding food, drink, tobacco and petroleum had risen by 0.4% in july and the annual rate of inflation had fallen to 3.5% from 4.3% in june.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,000
446
although the extent of the final pass-through to domestic prices was uncertain, that appreciation would contribute to disinflationary pressure.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
207
in an environment of heightened uncertainty, businesses were likely to postpone investment decisions.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
466
there were still risks from a number of sources in advanced and emerging economies, however, including any disorderly outcome from a failure to reach agreement on a new greek programme.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
605
in projections conditioned on the alternative assumption of constant interest rates at 3%, activity is stronger than in the mpc’s forecast conditioned on market rates, although gdp is still expected to be falling at the end of 2023.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
75
households’ median one-year inflation expectations, as measured by both the bank/ipsos and citi/yougov surveys, had fallen.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
16
but this was offset by a 5.6% rise in government investment and a 1.0 percentage point contribution from valuables.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
428
a31 in manufacturing, the cips output balance had fallen slightly, to 58.3, in january, from 58.4 in december.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,004
98
the committee voted unanimously to continue with the programme of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases totalling up to £10 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
960
net trade had made no contribution to french gdp growth in 2002 q1, but both exports and imports had rebounded strongly following sharp falls in 2001 q4: exports had risen by 2.1% and imports by 2.3%.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,002
485
the jp morgan global composite output pmi, which had started to pick up in february, had increased a little further in march.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
538
global demand had slowed, and the near-term outlook was weaker than the committee had assumed in may, largely due to the impact of the euro-area financial crisis.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,012
572
the committee would have the chance to assess the updated fiscal projections in the preparation of its august _inflation report._ the may business surveys had been somewhat mixed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
61
at some point household spending on vehicles would recover, and hence the current growth rate might be erratically low.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,000
689
in the united states and the euro area, short and longer-term market interest rates had, over the 15-day average period, been a little higher than at the time of the november report, although they had subsequently fallen back.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
615
a27 turning to indicators of expenditure in 2004 q4, retail sales volumes had fallen by 0.4% in october, following strong growth in august and september.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
976
the government has announced a series of substantial fiscal support measures to alleviate some of the severe cashflow problems facing businesses and households.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
260
the weakest sector, by a wide margin, had been general industrials, which had declined by around 11%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
948
there had also been a fall in petrol prices, although the underlying oil price remained volatile.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,007
518
by contrast, the bcc’s balance on similar investment intentions in the manufacturing sector had fallen from +16 to +11 in q3.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
779
that fall would reduce inflation projections (relative to last month’s) by around 0.2 percentage points in the near term, but, because the two-year-ahead futures price of oil had remained unchanged, there was now likely to be a higher mechanical contribution to the annual rate of inflation further out.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,003
46
unit labour costs had been growing at rates above those consistent with meeting the inflation target in the medium term, and core services cpi inflation, excluding rents, had risen to rates consistent with meeting the target.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
527
there had been some evidence of companies delaying pay rises and switching to more flexible forms of pay from contacts of the bank’s agents, who had reported a continuing gradual weakening in overall pay pressures, rather than a sharp recent reduction.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
377
the three-year long-term repo operation by the ecb on 21 december 2011 had improved market sentiment and a number of banks had been able to issue public unsecured term debt.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
5
even after making allowance for the probable impact of the adverse weather conditions, growth had slowed during the second half of 2010.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
956
m4 lending (excluding securitisations) had grown by £9.2 billion (0.9%) in december, and the twelve-month rate had risen to 9.0%, its highest since october the rapid growth had been broadly based: household borrowing had remained strong and private non-financial corporations’ (pnfcs) and ofcs’ borrowing had strengthened in q4.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
864
the outlook for the world economy had deteriorated, which reinforced their assessment that world activity would grow less rapidly than the best collective judgment reflected in the committee’s february projection.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,001
861
it was possible that recent global trade tensions could be affecting business sentiment more generally.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
48
furthermore, annual growth in regular pay per hour had remained stable.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
256