sentences
stringlengths 26
588
| stance_label
stringclasses 4
values | time_label
stringclasses 2
values | certain_label
stringclasses 2
values | year
int64 2k
2.02k
| __index_level_0__
int64 1
999
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
the chartered institute of purchasing and supply (cips) surveys of business activity in manufacturing and services had both fallen in june but remained at healthy levels. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 134 |
as the outlook for demand remained subdued, with vacancies continuing to fall and nominal pay growth easing, the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the target in the medium term were to the downside. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 522 |
recent regulatory statements and actions by the pra, fpc and fca might also have led to a tightening of credit conditions for some borrowers, although it was too early to judge how pronounced this would prove to be. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 422 |
the economist dollar non-oil commodity price index had risen by 1.5%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 239 |
the harsh winter had almost certainly played a part in temporarily depressing activity and, based on data on household consumption in april and may, bank staff’s estimate of growth in the second quarter was 0.8%. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 996 |
the most striking development in the past month had been the sharp rise in the price of oil: up over 17% in sterling terms. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 146 |
agents’ reports continued to suggest that inward migration was playing a role in curbing labour shortages. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 218 |
well publicised job cuts in a range of sectors, whether or not directly affected by general economic conditions, had probably increased awareness of the changing outlook. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 290 |
in response to social distancing measures, some people might be able to work from home. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 783 |
german manufacturing orders had fallen in january by 3.9% on the month. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 473 |
the negative skew (measured by the difference between mean and mode) in the probabilities attached to future levels of the ft-se 100, which had worsened dramatically with the outbreak of the asian crisis, had returned to its five year average level over the month. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 315 |
that judgement also reflects that monetary policy will act to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored around the 2% target. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 815 |
the first concerned the meaning of the fan charts published in the inflation report. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 909 |
conditions elsewhere in the euro area were generally rather more robust, although business confidence was less buoyant even in france and euro-area industrial production had fallen in january; a slowdown in the telecommunications sector might also hold back growth. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,001 | 934 |
most other forecasters did not appear to assume a continuation of a downward trend in the stock-output ratio. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 402 |
however the recent fall in oil prices could help to offset these pressures through lower petrol prices. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 510 |
twelve-month cpi inflation fell to 3.4% in february from 4.0% in january and december, a little below the expectation in the february monetary policy report. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 732 |
equity prices, as measured by the ft-se 100 index, had risen by a further 4.1% since 5 june from 4576 to 4762 on 9 july, though the ft-se 250 index had fallen by 1.6%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,997 | 26 |
the outlook for the economy, and particularly the relative movement in demand and supply during the recovery from the pandemic, remained unusually uncertain. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 39 |
some businesses had probably sought to offset some of the increases in the costs of imports by cutting back on their wage bills. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 86 |
slower employment growth, along with the upward revisions to the gdp data over the past year meant that productivity growth had appeared less weak than previously. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 47 |
perhaps consistent with that, there had been a rise in lending rates on some mortgage products with ltv ratios at or below 75% recently. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 807 |
and the news was such that it was difficult to form a quantitative assessment of the overall impact on the medium-term inflation projection and of the size of any interest rate increase that might be required. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 957 |
overall, although annual unit wage cost growth had increased over the past few quarters, probably reflecting the past tightening of the labour market, it remained lower than would be consistent with meeting the 2% inflation target in the medium term, were it to persist at current rates, even if external influences were no longer weighing on inflation at that horizon. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 903 |
the recent financial reporting season for european banks had not produced any major unexpected losses or problems with reported capital buffers. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 526 |
although house prices were rising, so far this seemed consistent with the reduction in interest rates since october. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 933 |
this would tend to increase the relative prices of those assets, and hence wealth, and would, by stimulating the demand for corporate credit instruments, improve the supply of funds to the corporate sector. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 454 |
the twelve-month rate of aggregate broad money growth had fallen to 5.6% in june, the lowest since march 1995. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 606 |
this lessened the trade-off that the mpc was required to balance and, all else equal, reduced the mpc’s tolerance of above-target inflation. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 941 |
the euro-area purchasing managers’ index (pmi) for manufacturing had risen slightly in october, to 49.1, from 48.9 in september. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,002 | 298 |
external demand growth might slacken, in particular if oil prices were to rise even more sharply. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 702 |
a23 the nationwide house price index had risen by 2.1% in april, while the halifax house price index had risen by 1.8%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 142 |
export growth had been stronger than anticipated in april and may. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 273 |
while modest by historical standards, that growth rate exceeded the diminished rate of supply growth of the economy, which was projected to be around 1½% per year. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 943 |
in the third quarter there had been a marked accumulation of manufacturing inventories of finished goods, while retail inventories had been growing steadily over the year. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 223 |
cpi inflation in march was 3.1%, with an unexpectedly strong upside contribution from household goods prices in general and furniture in particular. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 154 |
while the market-implied path was a little higher than the maps median, the gap between these measures had narrowed since the previous maps survey, conducted in mid-october. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 103 |
a59 information from options markets had shown that the one-month implied volatility for $/yen was typically higher than for $/mark. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 724 |
the possibility of a substantial further retrenchment by the household sector was perhaps one of the biggest downside risks facing the economy. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 369 |
but the balance of manufacturers expecting to increase investment was the most negative since october 1992 according to the cbi. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 502 |
downward bias in early estimates of gdp growth had, historically, been particularly marked in q1s; quarters affected by heavy snowfall had, in the past, been subject to above-average upward revisions; and construction sector output estimates had, in recent years, tended to be revised up over time. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 44 |
a fuller analysis of the implications of the new information contained in blue book 2015 would be possible as the committee prepared its november inflation report projections. | irrelevant | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 532 |
on the other hand, it was possible that the substantial scale of the economic stimulus in train could prompt a rapid rebound in economic activity. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 106 |
that slowdown reflects weaker global growth, driven by trade protectionism, and the domestic impact of brexit-related uncertainties. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 558 |
although m4 growth had now reached 12%, m4 lending growth had not kept pace but rather remained steady, at around 9%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,997 | 259 |
this reflected the view that accumulating inflationary pressures would surface after a period in which measured inflation was held back by a series of specific price level changes. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 616 |
surveys of labour shortages had indicated a sharp increase in shortages reported in consumer services and a fall in clerical shortages reported in financial services. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 114 |
the volume of sales balance had been at its weakest since january 1999. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 795 |
the kpmg/rec survey had indicated that staff availability had increased further in may. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 338 |
this return to home markets appeared to have been quite pronounced. | irrelevant | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 155 |
the euler trade indemnity survey had indicated that competitive pressures had somewhat reduced respondents’ profitability since early 1999. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 186 |
it was not possible, however, precisely to disentangle the factors driving these exchange rate movements. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 222 |
the bank’s twelve-month aei weighted mean had been unchanged at 3.0% in september. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 162 |
house prices continued to rise rapidly, with the twelve month rate on both the halifax and nationwide indices above 10%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 862 |
on their own, the latest industrial production data would imply a downward revision of perhaps 0.1% to estimated gdp in q4. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 87 |
public sector earnings growth had been unchanged at 3.4%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 569 |
more recently, retail sales had risen in august, and the fall in july had been revised away. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 164 |
sterling money market instruments implied that interest rate expectations were broadly flat over the next year or so. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 90 |
the committee considered how the news over the past month affected this assessment. | irrelevant | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 843 |
although often subject to erratic movements, goods exports had grown sharply in october and had not fallen back as much as expected in november. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 945 |
a34 the overall cips employment index for may had improved slightly on the previous month, but had remained below the ‘no-change’ level of 50. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 775 |
a 25 basis point increase in bank rate was fully priced into overnight index swap_ rates by may 2015, a little later than at the time of the committee’s previous meeting, and the median respondent to the reuters survey had put a 30% probability on there being a rate rise during 2014, down from 40% the previous month. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 762 |
the committee discussed recent developments with particular emphasis on the external environment; the chancellor’s announcement on the economic and fiscal strategy report; domestic demand; output and unemployment; and nominal variables, particularly prices and earnings. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 354 |
the number of lfs employees had risen by 39,000 over this period and also by 26,000 since the onset of the pandemic. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 748 |
both the consensus economics and treasury surveys for rpix inflation in 2001 had been unchanged at 1.9%, the lowest level since 1997. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 29 |
the cips services survey had pointed to rising output prices in may: the average prices charged index rose to 54.6, from 53.5 in april. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 840 |
excluding the factor cost adjustment, gdp at market prices grew by 0.8% in q1. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 544 |
this was a precautionary step to provide additional flexibility in the bank’s provision of liquidity insurance, complementing banks’ ability to draw on their own liquidity buffers. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 287 |
but since the mpc’s october meeting, sterling had increased by 2.1% (on an effective basis) and was now broadly in line with the august forecast. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,997 | 727 |
these scarring effects on demand would be greater the longer that the current conditions of infection, restriction and uncertainty persisted. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 703 |
employment growth was particularly robust in the fourth quarter and this would support consumption. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 626 |
input prices excluding food, drink, tobacco and petroleum had risen by 0.4% in july and the annual rate of inflation had fallen to 3.5% from 4.3% in june. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 446 |
although the extent of the final pass-through to domestic prices was uncertain, that appreciation would contribute to disinflationary pressure. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 207 |
in an environment of heightened uncertainty, businesses were likely to postpone investment decisions. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 466 |
there were still risks from a number of sources in advanced and emerging economies, however, including any disorderly outcome from a failure to reach agreement on a new greek programme. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 605 |
in projections conditioned on the alternative assumption of constant interest rates at 3%, activity is stronger than in the mpc’s forecast conditioned on market rates, although gdp is still expected to be falling at the end of 2023. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 75 |
households’ median one-year inflation expectations, as measured by both the bank/ipsos and citi/yougov surveys, had fallen. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 16 |
but this was offset by a 5.6% rise in government investment and a 1.0 percentage point contribution from valuables. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 428 |
a31 in manufacturing, the cips output balance had fallen slightly, to 58.3, in january, from 58.4 in december. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 98 |
the committee voted unanimously to continue with the programme of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases totalling up to £10 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 960 |
net trade had made no contribution to french gdp growth in 2002 q1, but both exports and imports had rebounded strongly following sharp falls in 2001 q4: exports had risen by 2.1% and imports by 2.3%. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,002 | 485 |
the jp morgan global composite output pmi, which had started to pick up in february, had increased a little further in march. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 538 |
global demand had slowed, and the near-term outlook was weaker than the committee had assumed in may, largely due to the impact of the euro-area financial crisis. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 572 |
the committee would have the chance to assess the updated fiscal projections in the preparation of its august _inflation report._ the may business surveys had been somewhat mixed. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 61 |
at some point household spending on vehicles would recover, and hence the current growth rate might be erratically low. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 689 |
in the united states and the euro area, short and longer-term market interest rates had, over the 15-day average period, been a little higher than at the time of the november report, although they had subsequently fallen back. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 615 |
a27 turning to indicators of expenditure in 2004 q4, retail sales volumes had fallen by 0.4% in october, following strong growth in august and september. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 976 |
the government has announced a series of substantial fiscal support measures to alleviate some of the severe cashflow problems facing businesses and households. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 260 |
the weakest sector, by a wide margin, had been general industrials, which had declined by around 11%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 948 |
there had also been a fall in petrol prices, although the underlying oil price remained volatile. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 518 |
by contrast, the bcc’s balance on similar investment intentions in the manufacturing sector had fallen from +16 to +11 in q3. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 779 |
that fall would reduce inflation projections (relative to last month’s) by around 0.2 percentage points in the near term, but, because the two-year-ahead futures price of oil had remained unchanged, there was now likely to be a higher mechanical contribution to the annual rate of inflation further out. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 46 |
unit labour costs had been growing at rates above those consistent with meeting the inflation target in the medium term, and core services cpi inflation, excluding rents, had risen to rates consistent with meeting the target. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 527 |
there had been some evidence of companies delaying pay rises and switching to more flexible forms of pay from contacts of the bank’s agents, who had reported a continuing gradual weakening in overall pay pressures, rather than a sharp recent reduction. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 377 |
the three-year long-term repo operation by the ecb on 21 december 2011 had improved market sentiment and a number of banks had been able to issue public unsecured term debt. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 5 |
even after making allowance for the probable impact of the adverse weather conditions, growth had slowed during the second half of 2010. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 956 |
m4 lending (excluding securitisations) had grown by £9.2 billion (0.9%) in december, and the twelve-month rate had risen to 9.0%, its highest since october the rapid growth had been broadly based: household borrowing had remained strong and private non-financial corporations’ (pnfcs) and ofcs’ borrowing had strengthened in q4. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 864 |
the outlook for the world economy had deteriorated, which reinforced their assessment that world activity would grow less rapidly than the best collective judgment reflected in the committee’s february projection. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 861 |
it was possible that recent global trade tensions could be affecting business sentiment more generally. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 48 |
furthermore, annual growth in regular pay per hour had remained stable. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 256 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.