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overall, gdp was expected to rise by 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, supported by a slightly more positive global backdrop and the reduction in short-term uncertainty observed since the general election. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 705 |
on average, external forecasters expect inflation to return gradually towards the target over the forecast period, reaching 2% at the three-year horizon (chart b). | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 921 |
services output growth had eased to 0.6% in q1 as expected. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 158 |
household spending on durable goods had recovered sharply since the april trough in activity, returning to around pre-crisis levels by the end of june, and the most recent payments data had shown a levelling off. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 654 |
at this meeting, the committee voted to maintain bank rate at 5%. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 822 |
the new government had announced its intention to present an updated budget on 8 july. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 43 |
that contrasted with earlier months, when part-timers had been the largest component. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 189 |
the twelve-month growth rate of ofcs’ m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had fallen to 3.5% in february, from 5.7% in january. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 869 |
in the light of recent developments, there was a range of views among committee members about how the balance of risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term had changed since the time of the may inflation report. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 987 |
the cips construction report also showed an increase in employment: its march number was the highest since may 1997. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 467 |
expectations of short-term interest rates had also risen by around 60 basis points in the euro area. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 257 |
the material rise in spot and forward wholesale gas prices since the august report represents an upside risk to the mpc’s inflation projection from april 2022. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 658 |
households’ expectations of near-term inflation expectations had fallen back, even though cpi inflation had continued to rise. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 754 |
that said, there might still be a perception that the euro-area authorities were now more committed to shifting the burden of future bank restructurings from governments to uninsured private creditors. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 632 |
the increase in mortgage rates so far during this cycle had, however, already led to higher aggregate interest payments by households, and this metric was likely to rise further. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 426 |
there was little news on pay pressures – which remained subdued – or on the degree of tightness in the labour market. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 288 |
the increase might simply have reflected the normal volatility of these data. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 70 |
all members agreed that the likely persistence of the headwinds restraining economic growth following the financial crisis meant that, when bank rate did begin to rise, it was expected to do so only gradually and to a level lower than in recent cycles. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 167 |
a16 the consensus economics forecasts measure of the expected average inflation rate over the next two years had risen since 1999 q1 by 20 basis points, to 2.3% in 1999 q2. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 102 |
the ecb’s ltro had reduced some of the most immediate risks facing european banks, but concerns remained about the indebtedness and competitiveness of some euro-area countries. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 250 |
but the most recent survey on august 10 indicated a fall, perhaps consistent with a change in foreign currency risk premia in favour of sterling given concerns about financial fragility overseas. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 832 |
in the united states, q2 gdp growth had been revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 916 |
the institute of management services (ims) index had risen in january. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 763 |
uk short-term interest rates had changed little on the month, while longer-term rates had risen slightly. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 84 |
that primarily reflected the very substantial rise in wholesale gas futures prices that had occurred since the may report, most recently due to russia’s restrictions of gas supplies to european markets in july and due to the risk of further curbs. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 295 |
the annual rate of growth had fallen to 0.7%, the lowest rate since 1992. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,999 | 125 |
the committee noted that a number of market-based measures of implied and realised volatility had remained historically low, which appeared at odds with the elevated level of aggregate measures of policy uncertainty. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 845 |
instead, there were links through asset markets. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 191 |
these are the minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting ending on 4 may the bank of england act 1998 gives the bank of england operational responsibility for setting monetary policy to meet the government’s inflation target. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 617 |
in the near term, the risks to inflation were likely to be on the upside, related to the possibility of higher commodity and energy prices. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 64 |
although the stock of broad money had fallen again in december, its velocity remained well below the rates prevailing in the late 1990s. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 709 |
higher oil prices might depress consumer and investment spending. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 247 |
combined with the indications from more timely survey data, retail spending was likely to rise modestly over the third quarter as a whole. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 434 |
the committee also examined projections for gdp growth and cpi inflation based on the assumptions that the official interest rate remained constant at either 4.5% or 4.75%. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 362 |
a uk-specific explanation therefore seemed to be required. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 215 |
the following members of the committee were present: eddie george, governor mervyn king, deputy governor responsible for monetary policy andrew large, deputy governor responsible for financial stability charles bean marian bell richard lambert stephen nickell paul tucker kate barker was present on wednesday 4 june but was, unexpectedly and unavoidably, unable to attend on thursday 5 june. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 879 |
the committee discussed the recent weakening in uk gdp growth, in the context of the significant tightening of monetary policy since the end of 2021, continued weakness in potential supply growth and an unwinding of previous fiscal support. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 985 |
gdp figures indicated growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 1999. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 652 |
in 2019, monetary policy was eased by a number of central banks, including the us federal reserve and the european central bank (chart 2.7), in response to a weakening outlook for growth. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 316 |
beyond this, there was an additional increase in total inactivity of 30,000. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 489 |
the committee noted that the estimated drag on average earnings growth from so-called compositional effects had fallen, to around ¼ percentage points in q4 from around ¾ percentage points in q3. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 89 |
the expected volatility of the major equity indices implied by options prices had increased, possibly reflecting recent increases in historical volatility. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,005 | 977 |
whereas manufacturing output had appeared to be broadly flat last summer, once due account was taken of the effects of the jubilee holidays on the monthly pattern of output, the underlying trend now seemed to be downwards. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 199 |
a53 costs of materials had generally been falling and the greatest cost concern for most companies had continued to be increases in insurance premia and in regulation. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 277 |
seven members of the committee (the governor, mervyn king, christopher allsopp, kate barker, charles bean, marian bell and stephen nickell) voted in favour. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 878 |
new measures of tightness based on these ideas implied that the labour market was not as tight as the simple vacancies to unemployment ratio suggested, but they appeared to be less affected by structural improvements in the labour market. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 789 |
measures of expected inflation derived from prices in financial markets had fallen fractionally over the month. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 408 |
some comfort on the latter point could be taken from the relatively small percentages of loans collateralised against stocks and shares. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,997 | 865 |
the extension of the government’s employment support schemes in budget 2021 was expected to limit significantly the near-term rise in the lfs unemployment rate. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 148 |
firms had also been asked what factors would influence their investment plans over the next year, and how they planned to change investment in particular assets. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 894 |
the greater-than-expected rise in house prices would tend to offset the influence of the fall in equity prices on consumption, and might lead to a stronger near-term prospect for consumption than envisaged in the august inflation report. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 37 |
retail sales volumes grew by 0.3% in july, more slowly than the 0.7% monthly average in the first half of the year, but this was nevertheless sufficient in combination with the strong growth in may and june to keep the three-month (on previous three months) growth rate on a rising trend. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,997 | 776 |
since 2008, however, households’ spending had fallen relative to income, such that the savings rate had risen to a level similar to that seen in the early 2000s. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 380 |
measures of consumer confidence had remained strong, and on some measures business confidence had risen in recent months. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 851 |
gdp and market sector output growth were both expected to pick up and be positive over the first half of the year. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 697 |
a final decision on the imposition of us tariffs on imports of automotive products had been delayed for 180 days. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 814 |
only a minority of the decline in non-farm payrolls was accounted for by the call-up of reservists in the armed forces (over 200,000 by mid-march, not all of whom would have been on those payrolls beforehand). | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 904 |
in the cbi distributive trades survey, the balance of retailers reporting positive annual growth in sales volumes had fallen to +17, from +26 in february. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 252 |
real government consumption had risen by 1.0% and whole-economy investment had risen by 1.4%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 929 |
this could feed through into average wages as job-to-job churn returned to more normal levels and existing workers demanded commensurately higher pay to prevent them, too, seeking alternative employment as a means of achieving higher income. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 611 |
and the recovery in global demand remained susceptible to further shocks, especially if the imbalances that contributed to the financial crisis were not rectified. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 500 |
if anything, house prices had accelerated recently, and mortgage approvals had risen further. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 163 |
cpi inflation had risen further above target in august, to 2.4%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 280 |
us and euro-area short rates were also little changed over the same period. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 942 |
the prospective increase in vat in january 2011 would affect measured cpi inflation for twelve months, and would probably keep inflation above the target for a period. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 596 |
in contrast, the bcc survey had reported a rise in manufacturing investment intentions in q2, with the survey balance rising to +7, from -3 in 2002 q1, but it had still been below its long-term average. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 604 |
there were also risks associated with easing policy during a period of sustained above-target inflation and there were concerns about how quickly inflation would fall back to target. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 217 |
the average standard variable mortgage rate was unchanged at 5.49%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 395 |
a36 manufacturing input prices had risen by 1.8% in october. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 997 |
overall, the growth ofo f i ' s money had been dominated by life assurance and pension funds and, to a lesser extent, securities dealers. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,997 | 475 |
a17 the twelve-month growth rate of notes and coin, adjusted for special factors, had risen to 6.0% in october, from 5.8% in september. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 203 |
the committee discussed how the united kingdom would, through a number of trade and financial channels, be affected by these developments. | irrelevant | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 850 |
since then, industrial production had declined by 1.2% in may, and by over 5% over the past year. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 963 |
the projections described in the february inflation report depend in good part on three main judgements: that the lower level of sterling continues to boost consumer prices broadly as expected, and without adverse consequences for expectations of inflation further ahead; that regular pay growth does indeed remain modest, consistent with the committee’s updated assessment of the remaining degree of slack in the labour market; and that the hitherto resilient rates of household spending growth slow as real income gains weaken, without a sufficient offset by other components of demand. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 982 |
the fall in lfs unemployment had been more than accounted for by short-term unemployment, and the rate of inflows to the claimant count was little changed. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 445 |
on the other hand, the evidence from share prices clearly went in the opposite direction. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 507 |
the surprise this year had been that there had not so far been more upward pressure on wages, given the increase in national insurance contribution rates and the higher levels of retail price inflation. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 645 |
global equity prices had dropped sharply in the days immediately prior to this policy meeting and measures of volatility such as the vix index had increased significantly. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 196 |
household sight deposit rates were likely to increase in coming months, although the committee’s expectation was that pass-through would be only partial, as deposit rates had been unusually high relative to bank rate during the post-crisis period. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 708 |
a17 there was large public sector debt repayment of £10.4 billion in january, partly due to higher than expected receipts under the new self-assessment tax system. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 785 |
an increasing number of manufacturers had begun to consider investing abroad. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 423 |
a48 in the labour market, manufacturing job losses had continued and were no longer being offset by gains in other sectors. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 683 |
a16 a fall in real forward interest rates derived from the yield curve had accounted for the fall in nominal forward rates at the long end. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 415 |
this suggested that the medium-term equilibrium rate of unemployment was likely to be higher. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 895 |
a38 the agents also asked whether the quality of recruits had changed in the last 12 months. | irrelevant | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,999 | 693 |
third, the additional recent depreciation of sterling would increase pressures on prices along the supply pipeline. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 993 |
the news from other components of spending had been mixed. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 781 |
the sectoral breakdown of business investment had indicated that private manufacturing investment had fallen by 13.9% in q3, the largest fall since records began, while private service sector investment had decreased by 3.9% on the quarter. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 400 |
but monitoring processes had been set up which would identify the effect of the new deal on unemployment. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 132 |
equity prices, measured in local currency, had fallen a little in the united kingdom and in the euro area over the month, but had risen a little in the united states. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,006 | 55 |
the committee noted that it could take account of the analysis and opinion of outside commentators, but had to reach its own assessment, in line with its remit. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 981 |
the committee discussed the combined evidence on the position of the corporate sector, which generally reacts to interest rate changes sooner than the household sector. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 847 |
meanwhile expectations had grown of a reduction in interest rates by the european central bank (ecb). | dovish | forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 193 |
twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen to 2.4% in june from 2.8% in may. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 696 |
taken together, the indicators did not point to a marked weakening of gdp growth between q1 and q2, though the balance of evidence suggested that the outcome might, if anything, be a little softer than expected at the time of the may inflation report. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 431 |
bank and building society lending to industrial and commercial companies (iccs) had risen sharply in the first quarter. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 620 |
there seemed to be three channels through which us house prices might have an impact on the macroeconomy. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 660 |
the economic data in the united states, and the consumer price index (cpi) figures in the united kingdom, had been weaker than the market had expected. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 388 |
at this meeting, all members judged that a further easing of monetary policy was warranted. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 177 |
second, it was plausible, judging from the reports of the bank’s regional agents and from surveys, that earnings growth would be lower in 1999 than in 1998, contrary to the assumption used in the committee’s central projection. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 1,999 | 859 |
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