gtfintechlab/bank_of_england · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 26 588	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
overall, gdp was expected to rise by 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, supported by a slightly more positive global backdrop and the reduction in short-term uncertainty observed since the general election.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	705
on average, external forecasters expect inflation to return gradually towards the target over the forecast period, reaching 2% at the three-year horizon (chart b).	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	921
services output growth had eased to 0.6% in q1 as expected.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	158
household spending on durable goods had recovered sharply since the april trough in activity, returning to around pre-crisis levels by the end of june, and the most recent payments data had shown a levelling off.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	654
at this meeting, the committee voted to maintain bank rate at 5%.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	822
the new government had announced its intention to present an updated budget on 8 july.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,015	43
that contrasted with earlier months, when part-timers had been the largest component.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	189
the twelve-month growth rate of ofcs’ m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had fallen to 3.5% in february, from 5.7% in january.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	869
in the light of recent developments, there was a range of views among committee members about how the balance of risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term had changed since the time of the may inflation report.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	987
the cips construction report also showed an increase in employment: its march number was the highest since may 1997.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	467
expectations of short-term interest rates had also risen by around 60 basis points in the euro area.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	257
the material rise in spot and forward wholesale gas prices since the august report represents an upside risk to the mpc’s inflation projection from april 2022.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	658
households’ expectations of near-term inflation expectations had fallen back, even though cpi inflation had continued to rise.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	754
that said, there might still be a perception that the euro-area authorities were now more committed to shifting the burden of future bank restructurings from governments to uninsured private creditors.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	632
the increase in mortgage rates so far during this cycle had, however, already led to higher aggregate interest payments by households, and this metric was likely to rise further.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	426
there was little news on pay pressures – which remained subdued – or on the degree of tightness in the labour market.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,004	288
the increase might simply have reflected the normal volatility of these data.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,005	70
all members agreed that the likely persistence of the headwinds restraining economic growth following the financial crisis meant that, when bank rate did begin to rise, it was expected to do so only gradually and to a level lower than in recent cycles.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	167
a16 the consensus economics forecasts measure of the expected average inflation rate over the next two years had risen since 1999 q1 by 20 basis points, to 2.3% in 1999 q2.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	102
the ecb’s ltro had reduced some of the most immediate risks facing european banks, but concerns remained about the indebtedness and competitiveness of some euro-area countries.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	250
but the most recent survey on august 10 indicated a fall, perhaps consistent with a change in foreign currency risk premia in favour of sterling given concerns about financial fragility overseas.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,998	832
in the united states, q2 gdp growth had been revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1%.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	916
the institute of management services (ims) index had risen in january.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	763
uk short-term interest rates had changed little on the month, while longer-term rates had risen slightly.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	84
that primarily reflected the very substantial rise in wholesale gas futures prices that had occurred since the may report, most recently due to russia’s restrictions of gas supplies to european markets in july and due to the risk of further curbs.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	295
the annual rate of growth had fallen to 0.7%, the lowest rate since 1992.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,999	125
the committee noted that a number of market-based measures of implied and realised volatility had remained historically low, which appeared at odds with the elevated level of aggregate measures of policy uncertainty.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	845
instead, there were links through asset markets.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,000	191
these are the minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting ending on 4 may the bank of england act 1998 gives the bank of england operational responsibility for setting monetary policy to meet the government’s inflation target.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,022	617
in the near term, the risks to inflation were likely to be on the upside, related to the possibility of higher commodity and energy prices.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,006	64
although the stock of broad money had fallen again in december, its velocity remained well below the rates prevailing in the late 1990s.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,004	709
higher oil prices might depress consumer and investment spending.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	247
combined with the indications from more timely survey data, retail spending was likely to rise modestly over the third quarter as a whole.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	434
the committee also examined projections for gdp growth and cpi inflation based on the assumptions that the official interest rate remained constant at either 4.5% or 4.75%.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,004	362
a uk-specific explanation therefore seemed to be required.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,004	215
the following members of the committee were present: eddie george, governor mervyn king, deputy governor responsible for monetary policy andrew large, deputy governor responsible for financial stability charles bean marian bell richard lambert stephen nickell paul tucker kate barker was present on wednesday 4 june but was, unexpectedly and unavoidably, unable to attend on thursday 5 june.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,003	879
the committee discussed the recent weakening in uk gdp growth, in the context of the significant tightening of monetary policy since the end of 2021, continued weakness in potential supply growth and an unwinding of previous fiscal support.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	985
gdp figures indicated growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 1999.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	652
in 2019, monetary policy was eased by a number of central banks, including the us federal reserve and the european central bank (chart 2.7), in response to a weakening outlook for growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	316
beyond this, there was an additional increase in total inactivity of 30,000.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	1,998	489
the committee noted that the estimated drag on average earnings growth from so-called compositional effects had fallen, to around ¼ percentage points in q4 from around ¾ percentage points in q3.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	89
the expected volatility of the major equity indices implied by options prices had increased, possibly reflecting recent increases in historical volatility.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,005	977
whereas manufacturing output had appeared to be broadly flat last summer, once due account was taken of the effects of the jubilee holidays on the monthly pattern of output, the underlying trend now seemed to be downwards.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,003	199
a53 costs of materials had generally been falling and the greatest cost concern for most companies had continued to be increases in insurance premia and in regulation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	277
seven members of the committee (the governor, mervyn king, christopher allsopp, kate barker, charles bean, marian bell and stephen nickell) voted in favour.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,003	878
new measures of tightness based on these ideas implied that the labour market was not as tight as the simple vacancies to unemployment ratio suggested, but they appeared to be less affected by structural improvements in the labour market.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	1,998	789
measures of expected inflation derived from prices in financial markets had fallen fractionally over the month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	408
some comfort on the latter point could be taken from the relatively small percentages of loans collateralised against stocks and shares.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,997	865
the extension of the government’s employment support schemes in budget 2021 was expected to limit significantly the near-term rise in the lfs unemployment rate.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	148
firms had also been asked what factors would influence their investment plans over the next year, and how they planned to change investment in particular assets.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,003	894
the greater-than-expected rise in house prices would tend to offset the influence of the fall in equity prices on consumption, and might lead to a stronger near-term prospect for consumption than envisaged in the august inflation report.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,002	37
retail sales volumes grew by 0.3% in july, more slowly than the 0.7% monthly average in the first half of the year, but this was nevertheless sufficient in combination with the strong growth in may and june to keep the three-month (on previous three months) growth rate on a rising trend.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,997	776
since 2008, however, households’ spending had fallen relative to income, such that the savings rate had risen to a level similar to that seen in the early 2000s.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	380
measures of consumer confidence had remained strong, and on some measures business confidence had risen in recent months.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	851
gdp and market sector output growth were both expected to pick up and be positive over the first half of the year.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	697
a final decision on the imposition of us tariffs on imports of automotive products had been delayed for 180 days.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	814
only a minority of the decline in non-farm payrolls was accounted for by the call-up of reservists in the armed forces (over 200,000 by mid-march, not all of whom would have been on those payrolls beforehand).	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	904
in the cbi distributive trades survey, the balance of retailers reporting positive annual growth in sales volumes had fallen to +17, from +26 in february.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	252
real government consumption had risen by 1.0% and whole-economy investment had risen by 1.4%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	929
this could feed through into average wages as job-to-job churn returned to more normal levels and existing workers demanded commensurately higher pay to prevent them, too, seeking alternative employment as a means of achieving higher income.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	611
and the recovery in global demand remained susceptible to further shocks, especially if the imbalances that contributed to the financial crisis were not rectified.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	500
if anything, house prices had accelerated recently, and mortgage approvals had risen further.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	163
cpi inflation had risen further above target in august, to 2.4%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,005	280
us and euro-area short rates were also little changed over the same period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	942
the prospective increase in vat in january 2011 would affect measured cpi inflation for twelve months, and would probably keep inflation above the target for a period.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	596
in contrast, the bcc survey had reported a rise in manufacturing investment intentions in q2, with the survey balance rising to +7, from -3 in 2002 q1, but it had still been below its long-term average.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,002	604
there were also risks associated with easing policy during a period of sustained above-target inflation and there were concerns about how quickly inflation would fall back to target.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	217
the average standard variable mortgage rate was unchanged at 5.49%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	395
a36 manufacturing input prices had risen by 1.8% in october.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	997
overall, the growth ofo f i ' s money had been dominated by life assurance and pension funds and, to a lesser extent, securities dealers.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,997	475
a17 the twelve-month growth rate of notes and coin, adjusted for special factors, had risen to 6.0% in october, from 5.8% in september.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	203
the committee discussed how the united kingdom would, through a number of trade and financial channels, be affected by these developments.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	850
since then, industrial production had declined by 1.2% in may, and by over 5% over the past year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	963
the projections described in the february inflation report depend in good part on three main judgements: that the lower level of sterling continues to boost consumer prices broadly as expected, and without adverse consequences for expectations of inflation further ahead; that regular pay growth does indeed remain modest, consistent with the committee’s updated assessment of the remaining degree of slack in the labour market; and that the hitherto resilient rates of household spending growth slow as real income gains weaken, without a sufficient offset by other components of demand.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	982
the fall in lfs unemployment had been more than accounted for by short-term unemployment, and the rate of inflows to the claimant count was little changed.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,003	445
on the other hand, the evidence from share prices clearly went in the opposite direction.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,998	507
the surprise this year had been that there had not so far been more upward pressure on wages, given the increase in national insurance contribution rates and the higher levels of retail price inflation.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,003	645
global equity prices had dropped sharply in the days immediately prior to this policy meeting and measures of volatility such as the vix index had increased significantly.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	196
household sight deposit rates were likely to increase in coming months, although the committee’s expectation was that pass-through would be only partial, as deposit rates had been unusually high relative to bank rate during the post-crisis period.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	708
a17 there was large public sector debt repayment of £10.4 billion in january, partly due to higher than expected receipts under the new self-assessment tax system.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	785
an increasing number of manufacturers had begun to consider investing abroad.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	423
a48 in the labour market, manufacturing job losses had continued and were no longer being offset by gains in other sectors.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	683
a16 a fall in real forward interest rates derived from the yield curve had accounted for the fall in nominal forward rates at the long end.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,000	415
this suggested that the medium-term equilibrium rate of unemployment was likely to be higher.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	895
a38 the agents also asked whether the quality of recruits had changed in the last 12 months.	irrelevant	not forward looking	uncertain	1,999	693
third, the additional recent depreciation of sterling would increase pressures on prices along the supply pipeline.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	993
the news from other components of spending had been mixed.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	781
the sectoral breakdown of business investment had indicated that private manufacturing investment had fallen by 13.9% in q3, the largest fall since records began, while private service sector investment had decreased by 3.9% on the quarter.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	400
but monitoring processes had been set up which would identify the effect of the new deal on unemployment.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	1,998	132
equity prices, measured in local currency, had fallen a little in the united kingdom and in the euro area over the month, but had risen a little in the united states.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,006	55
the committee noted that it could take account of the analysis and opinion of outside commentators, but had to reach its own assessment, in line with its remit.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	1,998	981
the committee discussed the combined evidence on the position of the corporate sector, which generally reacts to interest rate changes sooner than the household sector.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,998	847
meanwhile expectations had grown of a reduction in interest rates by the european central bank (ecb).	dovish	forward looking	certain	1,999	193
twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen to 2.4% in june from 2.8% in may.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	696
taken together, the indicators did not point to a marked weakening of gdp growth between q1 and q2, though the balance of evidence suggested that the outcome might, if anything, be a little softer than expected at the time of the may inflation report.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,005	431
bank and building society lending to industrial and commercial companies (iccs) had risen sharply in the first quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	620
there seemed to be three channels through which us house prices might have an impact on the macroeconomy.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	660
the economic data in the united states, and the consumer price index (cpi) figures in the united kingdom, had been weaker than the market had expected.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,004	388
at this meeting, all members judged that a further easing of monetary policy was warranted.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	177
second, it was plausible, judging from the reports of the bank’s regional agents and from surveys, that earnings growth would be lower in 1999 than in 1998, contrary to the assumption used in the committee’s central projection.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	1,999	859

overall, gdp was expected to rise by 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, supported by a slightly more positive global backdrop and the reduction in short-term uncertainty observed since the general election.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,020

705

on average, external forecasters expect inflation to return gradually towards the target over the forecast period, reaching 2% at the three-year horizon (chart b).

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

921

services output growth had eased to 0.6% in q1 as expected.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

158

household spending on durable goods had recovered sharply since the april trough in activity, returning to around pre-crisis levels by the end of june, and the most recent payments data had shown a levelling off.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

654

at this meeting, the committee voted to maintain bank rate at 5%.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

822

the new government had announced its intention to present an updated budget on 8 july.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,015

43

that contrasted with earlier months, when part-timers had been the largest component.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

189

the twelve-month growth rate of ofcs’ m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had fallen to 3.5% in february, from 5.7% in january.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

869

in the light of recent developments, there was a range of views among committee members about how the balance of risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term had changed since the time of the may inflation report.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

987

the cips construction report also showed an increase in employment: its march number was the highest since may 1997.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

467

expectations of short-term interest rates had also risen by around 60 basis points in the euro area.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,008

257

the material rise in spot and forward wholesale gas prices since the august report represents an upside risk to the mpc’s inflation projection from april 2022.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

658

households’ expectations of near-term inflation expectations had fallen back, even though cpi inflation had continued to rise.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

754

that said, there might still be a perception that the euro-area authorities were now more committed to shifting the burden of future bank restructurings from governments to uninsured private creditors.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

632

the increase in mortgage rates so far during this cycle had, however, already led to higher aggregate interest payments by households, and this metric was likely to rise further.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

426

there was little news on pay pressures – which remained subdued – or on the degree of tightness in the labour market.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,004

288

the increase might simply have reflected the normal volatility of these data.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,005

70

all members agreed that the likely persistence of the headwinds restraining economic growth following the financial crisis meant that, when bank rate did begin to rise, it was expected to do so only gradually and to a level lower than in recent cycles.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

167

a16 the consensus economics forecasts measure of the expected average inflation rate over the next two years had risen since 1999 q1 by 20 basis points, to 2.3% in 1999 q2.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

102

the ecb’s ltro had reduced some of the most immediate risks facing european banks, but concerns remained about the indebtedness and competitiveness of some euro-area countries.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

250

but the most recent survey on august 10 indicated a fall, perhaps consistent with a change in foreign currency risk premia in favour of sterling given concerns about financial fragility overseas.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,998

832

in the united states, q2 gdp growth had been revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1%.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

916

the institute of management services (ims) index had risen in january.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

763

uk short-term interest rates had changed little on the month, while longer-term rates had risen slightly.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

84

that primarily reflected the very substantial rise in wholesale gas futures prices that had occurred since the may report, most recently due to russia’s restrictions of gas supplies to european markets in july and due to the risk of further curbs.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

295

the annual rate of growth had fallen to 0.7%, the lowest rate since 1992.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,999

125

the committee noted that a number of market-based measures of implied and realised volatility had remained historically low, which appeared at odds with the elevated level of aggregate measures of policy uncertainty.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

845

instead, there were links through asset markets.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,000

191

these are the minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting ending on 4 may the bank of england act 1998 gives the bank of england operational responsibility for setting monetary policy to meet the government’s inflation target.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,022

617

in the near term, the risks to inflation were likely to be on the upside, related to the possibility of higher commodity and energy prices.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,006

64

although the stock of broad money had fallen again in december, its velocity remained well below the rates prevailing in the late 1990s.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,004

709

higher oil prices might depress consumer and investment spending.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

247

combined with the indications from more timely survey data, retail spending was likely to rise modestly over the third quarter as a whole.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

434

the committee also examined projections for gdp growth and cpi inflation based on the assumptions that the official interest rate remained constant at either 4.5% or 4.75%.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,004

362

a uk-specific explanation therefore seemed to be required.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,004

215

the following members of the committee were present: eddie george, governor mervyn king, deputy governor responsible for monetary policy andrew large, deputy governor responsible for financial stability charles bean marian bell richard lambert stephen nickell paul tucker kate barker was present on wednesday 4 june but was, unexpectedly and unavoidably, unable to attend on thursday 5 june.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,003

879

the committee discussed the recent weakening in uk gdp growth, in the context of the significant tightening of monetary policy since the end of 2021, continued weakness in potential supply growth and an unwinding of previous fiscal support.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

985

gdp figures indicated growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 1999.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,999

652

in 2019, monetary policy was eased by a number of central banks, including the us federal reserve and the european central bank (chart 2.7), in response to a weakening outlook for growth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

316

beyond this, there was an additional increase in total inactivity of 30,000.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

1,998

489

the committee noted that the estimated drag on average earnings growth from so-called compositional effects had fallen, to around ¼ percentage points in q4 from around ¾ percentage points in q3.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

89

the expected volatility of the major equity indices implied by options prices had increased, possibly reflecting recent increases in historical volatility.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,005

977

whereas manufacturing output had appeared to be broadly flat last summer, once due account was taken of the effects of the jubilee holidays on the monthly pattern of output, the underlying trend now seemed to be downwards.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,003

199

a53 costs of materials had generally been falling and the greatest cost concern for most companies had continued to be increases in insurance premia and in regulation.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

277

seven members of the committee (the governor, mervyn king, christopher allsopp, kate barker, charles bean, marian bell and stephen nickell) voted in favour.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,003

878

new measures of tightness based on these ideas implied that the labour market was not as tight as the simple vacancies to unemployment ratio suggested, but they appeared to be less affected by structural improvements in the labour market.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

1,998

789

measures of expected inflation derived from prices in financial markets had fallen fractionally over the month.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

408

some comfort on the latter point could be taken from the relatively small percentages of loans collateralised against stocks and shares.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,997

865

the extension of the government’s employment support schemes in budget 2021 was expected to limit significantly the near-term rise in the lfs unemployment rate.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

148

firms had also been asked what factors would influence their investment plans over the next year, and how they planned to change investment in particular assets.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,003

894

the greater-than-expected rise in house prices would tend to offset the influence of the fall in equity prices on consumption, and might lead to a stronger near-term prospect for consumption than envisaged in the august inflation report.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,002

37

retail sales volumes grew by 0.3% in july, more slowly than the 0.7% monthly average in the first half of the year, but this was nevertheless sufficient in combination with the strong growth in may and june to keep the three-month (on previous three months) growth rate on a rising trend.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,997

776

since 2008, however, households’ spending had fallen relative to income, such that the savings rate had risen to a level similar to that seen in the early 2000s.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

380

measures of consumer confidence had remained strong, and on some measures business confidence had risen in recent months.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

851

gdp and market sector output growth were both expected to pick up and be positive over the first half of the year.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

697

a final decision on the imposition of us tariffs on imports of automotive products had been delayed for 180 days.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

814

only a minority of the decline in non-farm payrolls was accounted for by the call-up of reservists in the armed forces (over 200,000 by mid-march, not all of whom would have been on those payrolls beforehand).

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,003

904

in the cbi distributive trades survey, the balance of retailers reporting positive annual growth in sales volumes had fallen to +17, from +26 in february.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

252

real government consumption had risen by 1.0% and whole-economy investment had risen by 1.4%.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

929

this could feed through into average wages as job-to-job churn returned to more normal levels and existing workers demanded commensurately higher pay to prevent them, too, seeking alternative employment as a means of achieving higher income.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

611

and the recovery in global demand remained susceptible to further shocks, especially if the imbalances that contributed to the financial crisis were not rectified.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

500

if anything, house prices had accelerated recently, and mortgage approvals had risen further.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

163

cpi inflation had risen further above target in august, to 2.4%.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,005

280

us and euro-area short rates were also little changed over the same period.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

942

the prospective increase in vat in january 2011 would affect measured cpi inflation for twelve months, and would probably keep inflation above the target for a period.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

596

in contrast, the bcc survey had reported a rise in manufacturing investment intentions in q2, with the survey balance rising to +7, from -3 in 2002 q1, but it had still been below its long-term average.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,002

604

there were also risks associated with easing policy during a period of sustained above-target inflation and there were concerns about how quickly inflation would fall back to target.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

217

the average standard variable mortgage rate was unchanged at 5.49%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,003

395

a36 manufacturing input prices had risen by 1.8% in october.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

997

overall, the growth ofo f i ' s money had been dominated by life assurance and pension funds and, to a lesser extent, securities dealers.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,997

475

a17 the twelve-month growth rate of notes and coin, adjusted for special factors, had risen to 6.0% in october, from 5.8% in september.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

203

the committee discussed how the united kingdom would, through a number of trade and financial channels, be affected by these developments.

irrelevant

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

850

since then, industrial production had declined by 1.2% in may, and by over 5% over the past year.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

963

the projections described in the february inflation report depend in good part on three main judgements: that the lower level of sterling continues to boost consumer prices broadly as expected, and without adverse consequences for expectations of inflation further ahead; that regular pay growth does indeed remain modest, consistent with the committee’s updated assessment of the remaining degree of slack in the labour market; and that the hitherto resilient rates of household spending growth slow as real income gains weaken, without a sufficient offset by other components of demand.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

982

the fall in lfs unemployment had been more than accounted for by short-term unemployment, and the rate of inflows to the claimant count was little changed.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,003

445

on the other hand, the evidence from share prices clearly went in the opposite direction.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,998

507

the surprise this year had been that there had not so far been more upward pressure on wages, given the increase in national insurance contribution rates and the higher levels of retail price inflation.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,003

645

global equity prices had dropped sharply in the days immediately prior to this policy meeting and measures of volatility such as the vix index had increased significantly.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

196

household sight deposit rates were likely to increase in coming months, although the committee’s expectation was that pass-through would be only partial, as deposit rates had been unusually high relative to bank rate during the post-crisis period.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

708

a17 there was large public sector debt repayment of £10.4 billion in january, partly due to higher than expected receipts under the new self-assessment tax system.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

785

an increasing number of manufacturers had begun to consider investing abroad.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,999

423

a48 in the labour market, manufacturing job losses had continued and were no longer being offset by gains in other sectors.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

683

a16 a fall in real forward interest rates derived from the yield curve had accounted for the fall in nominal forward rates at the long end.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,000

415

this suggested that the medium-term equilibrium rate of unemployment was likely to be higher.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

895

a38 the agents also asked whether the quality of recruits had changed in the last 12 months.

irrelevant

not forward looking

uncertain

1,999

693

third, the additional recent depreciation of sterling would increase pressures on prices along the supply pipeline.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,008

993

the news from other components of spending had been mixed.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

781

the sectoral breakdown of business investment had indicated that private manufacturing investment had fallen by 13.9% in q3, the largest fall since records began, while private service sector investment had decreased by 3.9% on the quarter.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

400

but monitoring processes had been set up which would identify the effect of the new deal on unemployment.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

1,998

132

equity prices, measured in local currency, had fallen a little in the united kingdom and in the euro area over the month, but had risen a little in the united states.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,006

55

the committee noted that it could take account of the analysis and opinion of outside commentators, but had to reach its own assessment, in line with its remit.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

1,998

981

the committee discussed the combined evidence on the position of the corporate sector, which generally reacts to interest rate changes sooner than the household sector.

neutral

forward looking

certain

1,998

847

meanwhile expectations had grown of a reduction in interest rates by the european central bank (ecb).

dovish

forward looking

certain

1,999

193

twelve-month cpi inflation had fallen to 2.4% in june from 2.8% in may.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

696

taken together, the indicators did not point to a marked weakening of gdp growth between q1 and q2, though the balance of evidence suggested that the outcome might, if anything, be a little softer than expected at the time of the may inflation report.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,005

431

bank and building society lending to industrial and commercial companies (iccs) had risen sharply in the first quarter.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

620

there seemed to be three channels through which us house prices might have an impact on the macroeconomy.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

660

the economic data in the united states, and the consumer price index (cpi) figures in the united kingdom, had been weaker than the market had expected.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,004

388

at this meeting, all members judged that a further easing of monetary policy was warranted.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

177

second, it was plausible, judging from the reports of the bank’s regional agents and from surveys, that earnings growth would be lower in 1999 than in 1998, contrary to the assumption used in the committee’s central projection.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

1,999

859