gtfintechlab/bank_of_england · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 26 588	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
and several of the bank’s agents had been told of a rise in late payments by small and medium-sized firms.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	511
despite this renewed weakness in activity, the euro-area unemployment rate, at 8.4% in october, had been only 1 percentage point above its 2019 q4 level.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	738
robust lending growth had been driven by the continuing strength in lending to households and a rise of some £3 billion in lending to other financial corporations (ofcs) on the month.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	307
those heightened concerns had increased investor perceptions of the risks associated with individual banks, as evidenced by higher premia on credit default swaps.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	83
it was possible that the national accounts data had underestimated export growth, either because of the uncertainty associated with fraudulent activity or because the united kingdom was a major exporter of services, the values and volumes of which were naturally much harder to measure accurately.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	488
ahead of its final meeting, the committee was made aware of the flash s&p global/cips uk composite pmi for september that would be released publically on friday 22 september.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,023	566
non-gilt issuance, which had been low in march, had returned in april to a level close to the average from october to february.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,001	317
on balance, market forecasts for 2000 were for the sterling-dollar exchange rate to remain broadly stable, and for the euro to appreciate against both sterling and the dollar.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,000	244
as a result, gdp began to recover in the second half of 2009, rising somewhat above its historical average growth rate by the end of the forecast period.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	713
in an alternative scenario that is conditioned on energy prices following forward curves throughout the forecast period and as set out in the november report, cpi inflation falls back towards the target more rapidly than in the mpc’s central projection, and is materially lower over the second half of the forecast period.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	403
but the output components of the july cips purchasing managers’ indices suggested a stronger recovery – close to trend in q3.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,003	357
inflation was likely to decline faster in the short term than in the committee’s central projection.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,007	674
longer-term nominal spot interest rates had risen modestly over the past month in the united kingdom, the united states and the euro area.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	119
as permitted under the bank of england act 1998, as amended by the financial services act 2012, david lees was also present as an observer in his role as a member of the oversight committee of court.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,014	72
a52 short-term interest rate expectations had fallen further since the previous meeting of the committee.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	264
the reported output balance (past four months) had fallen from +7 to -4, the lowest balance since april 1993; expected output (next four months) had fallen to -8, the lowest since july 1991.	dovish	forward looking	certain	1,998	914
either higher government expenditure or higher export volumes would in turn imply a higher gdp estimate.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	359
energy price movements had been mixed since the mpc’s previous meeting.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	169
however, given the potential costs to the economy of reversing the programme underway, they would not vote against the continuation of the programme.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	560
employers might decide not to pass on in price increases the higher costs implied by their own increased contributions, either because of competitive pressures or because they were confident that the committee would act to maintain inflation close to target.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,002	531
moreover, the improvement was particularly pronounced for loans at loan to value ratios (ltvs) over 75%.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	174
the implications for future price developments were unclear.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,999	225
but mortgage equity withdrawal in q2 was still estimated to have been stronger in real terms than at any point since 1991 q4.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	575
the outlook for uk activity, and the balance of the effects of the omicron variant on demand and supply, would also depend on the responses of other policymakers in the united kingdom and abroad.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	243
on 5 november, the government had announced that the coronavirus job retention scheme (cjrs) would be extended until the end of march, with employees receiving 80% of their current salary for hours not worked.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	589
in the rest of asia, activity had continued to hold up well.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	556
this reflected the assumption that the additional activity under a constant bank rate was associated with higher productivity, thus moderating its inflationary impact.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	677
third-quarter growth in non-japan asia had rebounded from the weak second-quarter outturn, reinforcing the view that that weakness had reflected the temporary effects of sars-related disruption.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	416
some members also considered arguments for raising the repo rate by 25 basis points.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,004	893
that would occur if a decline in growth during the second half of the year prompted companies, which had been holding on to underutilised resources in anticipation of a faster recovery in activity, to shed more labour and scrap more capital.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	872
real consumption had risen by 0.2% in the month to may, but nominal retail sales had fallen by 0.3% – the second consecutive monthly fall.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,000	883
recent external estimates were that the ex ante effect on gdp in industrial countries (ie before allowing for the effects of policy accommodation in the countries not immediately affected) might be of the order of 0.75% of gdp in 1998 - rather less in europe and rather more in the united states and japan.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	1,998	173
that slowing had been concentrated in a few countries.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	120
while sterling had risen since the committee’s july meeting, it was still about 4% below the path projected in the may inflation report; and there remained a risk of further falls since the economy was still relatively uncompetitive at the current real exchange rate.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,000	261
some forward-looking indicators suggested continued tightening.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	1,999	304
businesses’ own price expectations, as reported in the dmp survey, had remained at slightly more elevated levels, although on a continued downward path.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	913
growth in total pay per employee in 2002 compared with 2001 had been expected to be higher by 28% of the respondents, while 34% had expected it to be lower.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,002	512
it was possible that the increase in uncertainty following the terrorist attacks on 11 september had had a greater impact than previously believed.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,002	973
the annual inflation rate of the gdp deflator at factor cost was estimated to have risen to 3.1% in 2001 q1 from 1.6% in 2000 q4.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	127
the mpc only expected to adjust the terms and length of the scheme should macroeconomic conditions warrant it, and would not make the scheme less generous during the initial 18 month drawdown window.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	313
reports of declining employment in manufacturing had increased.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	841
there had been a number of uk monetary policy communications during the month: the statement released at the conclusion of the committee’s previous meeting; the publication of both the minutes of that meeting and the february inflation report; and public evidence given by some mpc members to the treasury committee.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,013	901
it had fallenb y around 1/4% since 9 july but had risen bynearly 24% since 2 august 1996.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	1,997	349
the cips construction index had also been strong at 57.5 in november, with housing and commercial orders remaining robust.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	830
it was common for these measures to move together, but recent movements in medium-term measures were nevertheless noteworthy, given that oil and gas futures curves were consistent with energy price inflation falling back significantly beyond the near-term horizon.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	156
before turning to its immediate policy decision and against the background of its latest projections for output and inflation, the committee discussed the world economy; money, credit and asset prices; demand and output; labour market conditions; prices and costs; and some possible tactical considerations.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,002	723
there was also uncertainty over the extent to which net exports would support growth and the pace at which that support would materialise.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	322
the federation of recruitment and employment services survey had also suggested that the demand for employees was falling.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	687
euro-area retail sales had fallen in may, but this was a volatile series.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,004	376
the governor invited members to vote on the proposition that the bank’s repo rate should be maintained at 4.75%.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,005	573
both the conference board and the university of michigan measures of consumer confidence had fallen in april: the conference board measure had fallen to 108.8, from an upwardly-revised 110.7 in march, and the university of michigan measure had fallen to 93.0 in april, from 95.7 in the previous month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	385
claimant count unemployment had declined by 22,300 in august; the rate had fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, its lowest rate since march 1980.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	827
there were several methods of producing estimates of the equilibrium unemployment rate, including: simple statistical models; more sophisticated statistical filters that exploited information from reduced-form wage phillips curve relationships; and structural ‘search and matching’ models of the labour market.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	755
similarly, economists polled by reuters on 27 february attached a mean probability of 80% to the committee leaving the repo rate unchanged.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,002	721
since a large share of consumer spending happened around the christmas period it was possible that a move this month would have a larger effect in supporting activity in the short run than a delayed move, without damaging the prospects for inflation over the medium term.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,998	370
another possibility was that recruitment difficulties were related to the level of unemployment rather than to its rate of change.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,998	600
the institute for supply management (ism) manufacturing index had risen to 49.8 in june, from 49.4 in may, while the non-manufacturing ism index had risen to 60.6 in june, from 54.5 in may.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,003	255
bank staff expected gdp growth of 0.6% in q2, a little weaker than previously expected.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	230
sterling twelve-month forward ois rates had risen by around 20 basis points since the time of the february inflation report.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	711
despite reports of gradually improving credit availability, net finance raised by private non-financial companies from uk banks and capital markets had fallen in february for the seventh month in the past eight.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	877
tensions appeared recently to have eased somewhat, however.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	964
a37 the cips employment survey for june had suggested continued overall employment growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	771
considerable risks remained around that central projection.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	460
two official estimates of japanese gdp growth had been published during the month.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	111
wholesale gas spot prices had initially fallen back in europe from their peak in mid-december, but had recently risen again amid increasing geopolitical tensions.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	122
in the immediate run-up to the mpc’s february meeting, the market-implied path for bank rate had reached around 1.7% by mid-2023.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	345
business surveys continue to suggest underlying quarterly gdp growth of around ¼% during the middle of this year.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	634
but it was likely that the underlying rate of growth had increased between the two quarters.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	692
should that risk materialise, however, the impact on the united kingdom would probably be tempered by an associated fall in the demand for, and prices of, commodities.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	22
but data for august showed a 7.9% increase in exports to the non-eu area.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	780
in the public sector, the pay review body awards, which took effect in april, had averaged about 0.5 percentage points less than in 2002.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	668
as permitted under the bank of england act 1998, as amended by the financial services act 2012, dave prentis was also present as an observer in his role as a member of the oversight committee of court.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,013	994
part of the pick up in november had reflected special effects, such as a temporary increase in cash holdings relating to government winter allowance payments.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,999	443
to the extent that the linkage between sterling and the dollar had weakened, sterling’s effective exchange rate might be less susceptible to future movements in the dollar against third currencies.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	1,999	267
this had risen to around 9% in 1994-97, but was projected by the international organisations to fall to 4-6% over 1998-2000.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,998	701
one channel had been via the diversion of resources, with, for example, a number of companies reporting that their senior executive officers had spent time preparing for brexit.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	926
the chair invited the committee to vote on the proposition that: bank rate should be increased by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.75%.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	170
indications for domestic demand in q3 remained strong, judging by the retail sales data, the cbi distributive trades survey, and reports from the bank’s regional agents, but the gfk consumer confidence measure had fallen back in september and the cips services survey, while remaining well above 50, was also slightly lower.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	272
quantity measures of the labour market suggested that it was no longer tightening.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,998	65
international equity prices had been volatile, falling early in the month but then recovering to end the month a little higher overall largely reflecting movements in the prices of financial-sector stocks.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	151
the recent strength of money gdp growth was likely to have persisted into the second quarter, based on the data seen so far.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	756
trade concerns have contributed to volatility in global equity prices and corporate bond spreads, as well as falls in industrial metals prices.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	939
the process of fiscal consolidation and rebalancing in these economies would need to continue for some time yet, with the consequence that euro-area activity was likely to remain subdued for quite a while.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	922
the governor invited members to vote on the proposition that the bank’s repo rate should be reduced by 25 basis points to 4.50%.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,001	451
it remained the case, however, that changes in term premia had accounted for only a small proportion of the overall rise in longer-term advanced economy government bond yields over the past two years, relative to the contribution from the rise in expected policy rates.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	391
there was time to wait and see if signs of earnings and price pressures emerged.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	204
a19 most of the upward revision to the expenditure measure had come from consumption and investment.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	229
ten-year real spot rates had risen internationally.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	299
the uk instantaneous forward ois curve was now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut during the first half of 2020.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	276
the lfs employment rate had been unchanged, with the inactivity rate rising slightly.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	486
earnings growth excluding bonuses had been 3.6% in the three months to november, down 0.1 percentage points on the three months to october.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	534
spreads on products with loan-to-value (ltv) ratios lower than or equal to 75% were now similar to spreads in january 2020, while spreads on products with ltv ratios higher than 75% had remained above their january 2020 levels.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	978
whole-economy average weekly earnings (awe) growth had increased to 5.4% in the three months to february on a year earlier, more than 1 percentage point above the february report forecast, reflecting strength in both regular pay and bonuses.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	884
members discussed how large a reduction in bank rate was appropriate this month.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	541
overall the labour market remained tight.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	983
a few days earlier sterling had failed to break through 1.70 against the dollar, and this triggered a sell-off on technical grounds.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	969
bond yields had generally risen after the us interest rate decision.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	972
those participants who expected an increase in official interest rates had attached importance to the robustness of domestic demand and labour market indicators over the period since the mpc last increased interest rates in february.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,000	980
for the services sector, the british chambers of commerce (bcc) survey’s balance of business confidence regarding profitability had risen to +47 in 2003 q4, from +40 in q3, the highest level since 1997 q3.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,004	305
data on global economic activity have generally been in line with the committee’s august inflation report projections, with growth in the united kingdom’s major trading partners expected to continue at a modest pace over the next three years.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	348

and several of the bank’s agents had been told of a rise in late payments by small and medium-sized firms.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

511

despite this renewed weakness in activity, the euro-area unemployment rate, at 8.4% in october, had been only 1 percentage point above its 2019 q4 level.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

738

robust lending growth had been driven by the continuing strength in lending to households and a rise of some £3 billion in lending to other financial corporations (ofcs) on the month.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

307

those heightened concerns had increased investor perceptions of the risks associated with individual banks, as evidenced by higher premia on credit default swaps.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

83

it was possible that the national accounts data had underestimated export growth, either because of the uncertainty associated with fraudulent activity or because the united kingdom was a major exporter of services, the values and volumes of which were naturally much harder to measure accurately.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

488

ahead of its final meeting, the committee was made aware of the flash s&p global/cips uk composite pmi for september that would be released publically on friday 22 september.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,023

566

non-gilt issuance, which had been low in march, had returned in april to a level close to the average from october to february.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,001

317

on balance, market forecasts for 2000 were for the sterling-dollar exchange rate to remain broadly stable, and for the euro to appreciate against both sterling and the dollar.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,000

244

as a result, gdp began to recover in the second half of 2009, rising somewhat above its historical average growth rate by the end of the forecast period.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

713

in an alternative scenario that is conditioned on energy prices following forward curves throughout the forecast period and as set out in the november report, cpi inflation falls back towards the target more rapidly than in the mpc’s central projection, and is materially lower over the second half of the forecast period.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

403

but the output components of the july cips purchasing managers’ indices suggested a stronger recovery – close to trend in q3.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,003

357

inflation was likely to decline faster in the short term than in the committee’s central projection.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,007

674

longer-term nominal spot interest rates had risen modestly over the past month in the united kingdom, the united states and the euro area.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

119

as permitted under the bank of england act 1998, as amended by the financial services act 2012, david lees was also present as an observer in his role as a member of the oversight committee of court.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,014

72

a52 short-term interest rate expectations had fallen further since the previous meeting of the committee.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

264

the reported output balance (past four months) had fallen from +7 to -4, the lowest balance since april 1993; expected output (next four months) had fallen to -8, the lowest since july 1991.

dovish

forward looking

certain

1,998

914

either higher government expenditure or higher export volumes would in turn imply a higher gdp estimate.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

359

energy price movements had been mixed since the mpc’s previous meeting.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

169

however, given the potential costs to the economy of reversing the programme underway, they would not vote against the continuation of the programme.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

560

employers might decide not to pass on in price increases the higher costs implied by their own increased contributions, either because of competitive pressures or because they were confident that the committee would act to maintain inflation close to target.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,002

531

moreover, the improvement was particularly pronounced for loans at loan to value ratios (ltvs) over 75%.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

174

the implications for future price developments were unclear.

neutral

forward looking

certain

1,999

225

but mortgage equity withdrawal in q2 was still estimated to have been stronger in real terms than at any point since 1991 q4.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

575

the outlook for uk activity, and the balance of the effects of the omicron variant on demand and supply, would also depend on the responses of other policymakers in the united kingdom and abroad.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

243

on 5 november, the government had announced that the coronavirus job retention scheme (cjrs) would be extended until the end of march, with employees receiving 80% of their current salary for hours not worked.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

589

in the rest of asia, activity had continued to hold up well.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,008

556

this reflected the assumption that the additional activity under a constant bank rate was associated with higher productivity, thus moderating its inflationary impact.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

677

third-quarter growth in non-japan asia had rebounded from the weak second-quarter outturn, reinforcing the view that that weakness had reflected the temporary effects of sars-related disruption.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,003

416

some members also considered arguments for raising the repo rate by 25 basis points.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,004

893

that would occur if a decline in growth during the second half of the year prompted companies, which had been holding on to underutilised resources in anticipation of a faster recovery in activity, to shed more labour and scrap more capital.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

872

real consumption had risen by 0.2% in the month to may, but nominal retail sales had fallen by 0.3% – the second consecutive monthly fall.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,000

883

recent external estimates were that the ex ante effect on gdp in industrial countries (ie before allowing for the effects of policy accommodation in the countries not immediately affected) might be of the order of 0.75% of gdp in 1998 - rather less in europe and rather more in the united states and japan.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

1,998

173

that slowing had been concentrated in a few countries.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

120

while sterling had risen since the committee’s july meeting, it was still about 4% below the path projected in the may inflation report; and there remained a risk of further falls since the economy was still relatively uncompetitive at the current real exchange rate.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,000

261

some forward-looking indicators suggested continued tightening.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

1,999

304

businesses’ own price expectations, as reported in the dmp survey, had remained at slightly more elevated levels, although on a continued downward path.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

913

growth in total pay per employee in 2002 compared with 2001 had been expected to be higher by 28% of the respondents, while 34% had expected it to be lower.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,002

512

it was possible that the increase in uncertainty following the terrorist attacks on 11 september had had a greater impact than previously believed.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,002

973

the annual inflation rate of the gdp deflator at factor cost was estimated to have risen to 3.1% in 2001 q1 from 1.6% in 2000 q4.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

127

the mpc only expected to adjust the terms and length of the scheme should macroeconomic conditions warrant it, and would not make the scheme less generous during the initial 18 month drawdown window.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

313

reports of declining employment in manufacturing had increased.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

841

there had been a number of uk monetary policy communications during the month: the statement released at the conclusion of the committee’s previous meeting; the publication of both the minutes of that meeting and the february inflation report; and public evidence given by some mpc members to the treasury committee.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,013

901

it had fallenb y around 1/4% since 9 july but had risen bynearly 24% since 2 august 1996.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

1,997

349

the cips construction index had also been strong at 57.5 in november, with housing and commercial orders remaining robust.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

830

it was common for these measures to move together, but recent movements in medium-term measures were nevertheless noteworthy, given that oil and gas futures curves were consistent with energy price inflation falling back significantly beyond the near-term horizon.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

156

before turning to its immediate policy decision and against the background of its latest projections for output and inflation, the committee discussed the world economy; money, credit and asset prices; demand and output; labour market conditions; prices and costs; and some possible tactical considerations.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,002

723

there was also uncertainty over the extent to which net exports would support growth and the pace at which that support would materialise.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

322

the federation of recruitment and employment services survey had also suggested that the demand for employees was falling.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

687

euro-area retail sales had fallen in may, but this was a volatile series.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,004

376

the governor invited members to vote on the proposition that the bank’s repo rate should be maintained at 4.75%.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,005

573

both the conference board and the university of michigan measures of consumer confidence had fallen in april: the conference board measure had fallen to 108.8, from an upwardly-revised 110.7 in march, and the university of michigan measure had fallen to 93.0 in april, from 95.7 in the previous month.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

385

claimant count unemployment had declined by 22,300 in august; the rate had fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, its lowest rate since march 1980.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

827

there were several methods of producing estimates of the equilibrium unemployment rate, including: simple statistical models; more sophisticated statistical filters that exploited information from reduced-form wage phillips curve relationships; and structural ‘search and matching’ models of the labour market.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

755

similarly, economists polled by reuters on 27 february attached a mean probability of 80% to the committee leaving the repo rate unchanged.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,002

721

since a large share of consumer spending happened around the christmas period it was possible that a move this month would have a larger effect in supporting activity in the short run than a delayed move, without damaging the prospects for inflation over the medium term.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,998

370

another possibility was that recruitment difficulties were related to the level of unemployment rather than to its rate of change.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,998

600

the institute for supply management (ism) manufacturing index had risen to 49.8 in june, from 49.4 in may, while the non-manufacturing ism index had risen to 60.6 in june, from 54.5 in may.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,003

255

bank staff expected gdp growth of 0.6% in q2, a little weaker than previously expected.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

230

sterling twelve-month forward ois rates had risen by around 20 basis points since the time of the february inflation report.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

711

despite reports of gradually improving credit availability, net finance raised by private non-financial companies from uk banks and capital markets had fallen in february for the seventh month in the past eight.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

877

tensions appeared recently to have eased somewhat, however.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

964

a37 the cips employment survey for june had suggested continued overall employment growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

771

considerable risks remained around that central projection.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

460

two official estimates of japanese gdp growth had been published during the month.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

111

wholesale gas spot prices had initially fallen back in europe from their peak in mid-december, but had recently risen again amid increasing geopolitical tensions.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

122

in the immediate run-up to the mpc’s february meeting, the market-implied path for bank rate had reached around 1.7% by mid-2023.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

345

business surveys continue to suggest underlying quarterly gdp growth of around ¼% during the middle of this year.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

634

but it was likely that the underlying rate of growth had increased between the two quarters.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

692

should that risk materialise, however, the impact on the united kingdom would probably be tempered by an associated fall in the demand for, and prices of, commodities.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

22

but data for august showed a 7.9% increase in exports to the non-eu area.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

780

in the public sector, the pay review body awards, which took effect in april, had averaged about 0.5 percentage points less than in 2002.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

668

as permitted under the bank of england act 1998, as amended by the financial services act 2012, dave prentis was also present as an observer in his role as a member of the oversight committee of court.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,013

994

part of the pick up in november had reflected special effects, such as a temporary increase in cash holdings relating to government winter allowance payments.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,999

443

to the extent that the linkage between sterling and the dollar had weakened, sterling’s effective exchange rate might be less susceptible to future movements in the dollar against third currencies.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

1,999

267

this had risen to around 9% in 1994-97, but was projected by the international organisations to fall to 4-6% over 1998-2000.

neutral

forward looking

certain

1,998

701

one channel had been via the diversion of resources, with, for example, a number of companies reporting that their senior executive officers had spent time preparing for brexit.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

926

the chair invited the committee to vote on the proposition that: bank rate should be increased by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.75%.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

170

indications for domestic demand in q3 remained strong, judging by the retail sales data, the cbi distributive trades survey, and reports from the bank’s regional agents, but the gfk consumer confidence measure had fallen back in september and the cips services survey, while remaining well above 50, was also slightly lower.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

272

quantity measures of the labour market suggested that it was no longer tightening.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,998

65

international equity prices had been volatile, falling early in the month but then recovering to end the month a little higher overall largely reflecting movements in the prices of financial-sector stocks.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,008

151

the recent strength of money gdp growth was likely to have persisted into the second quarter, based on the data seen so far.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,010

756

trade concerns have contributed to volatility in global equity prices and corporate bond spreads, as well as falls in industrial metals prices.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

939

the process of fiscal consolidation and rebalancing in these economies would need to continue for some time yet, with the consequence that euro-area activity was likely to remain subdued for quite a while.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

922

the governor invited members to vote on the proposition that the bank’s repo rate should be reduced by 25 basis points to 4.50%.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,001

451

it remained the case, however, that changes in term premia had accounted for only a small proportion of the overall rise in longer-term advanced economy government bond yields over the past two years, relative to the contribution from the rise in expected policy rates.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

391

there was time to wait and see if signs of earnings and price pressures emerged.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,999

204

a19 most of the upward revision to the expenditure measure had come from consumption and investment.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

229

ten-year real spot rates had risen internationally.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

299

the uk instantaneous forward ois curve was now fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut during the first half of 2020.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

276

the lfs employment rate had been unchanged, with the inactivity rate rising slightly.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

486

earnings growth excluding bonuses had been 3.6% in the three months to november, down 0.1 percentage points on the three months to october.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

534

spreads on products with loan-to-value (ltv) ratios lower than or equal to 75% were now similar to spreads in january 2020, while spreads on products with ltv ratios higher than 75% had remained above their january 2020 levels.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

978

whole-economy average weekly earnings (awe) growth had increased to 5.4% in the three months to february on a year earlier, more than 1 percentage point above the february report forecast, reflecting strength in both regular pay and bonuses.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

884

members discussed how large a reduction in bank rate was appropriate this month.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

541

overall the labour market remained tight.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

983

a few days earlier sterling had failed to break through 1.70 against the dollar, and this triggered a sell-off on technical grounds.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

969

bond yields had generally risen after the us interest rate decision.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,003

972

those participants who expected an increase in official interest rates had attached importance to the robustness of domestic demand and labour market indicators over the period since the mpc last increased interest rates in february.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,000

980

for the services sector, the british chambers of commerce (bcc) survey’s balance of business confidence regarding profitability had risen to +47 in 2003 q4, from +40 in q3, the highest level since 1997 q3.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,004

305

data on global economic activity have generally been in line with the committee’s august inflation report projections, with growth in the united kingdom’s major trading partners expected to continue at a modest pace over the next three years.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

348