gtfintechlab/bank_of_england · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 26 588	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
a key question was whether the current low level of cpi inflation reflected underlying changes in the economy, such as an increase in productivity growth, that the committee had underestimated and which could pose downside risks.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,004	157
in part, the slowdown in domestic demand in recent months might have reflected a supply shock.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	269
but there was some tentative evidence that consumer spending might have moderated during the quarter: the cbi distributive trades survey suggested some easing in march, consumer confidence had fallen slightly, and unsecured lending had dropped back a little in february.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,004	336
prices had responded to a range of supply factors, including the impact of us sanctions on russia affecting its aluminium production, as well as uncertainty related to trade policy.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	586
covid vaccination programmes have progressed and picked up pace in many countries.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,021	908
respondents were unanimous that if the repo rate were to be left unchanged this month, it would be raised in may.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,004	14
sources: bank of england, bloomberg finance l.p. and bank calculations.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,020	582
on the corporate side, the bank of england’s credit conditions survey for q1 had shown an improvement in the expected availability of corporate credit.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,009	293
mean inflation expectations of the general public at 12 and 24 months ahead, as surveyed by basix, had risen slightly on the quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	34
in the united states, the federal reserve had announced that it would purchase $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities per month, in addition to reinvesting funds from maturing assets, until there had been a sustained improvement in labour market conditions.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	706
non-financial corporations had issued new bonds at a record rate during 2012 so far and march had seen the first sub-investment grade issue by a uk company since summer 2011.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	326
a30 employment had continued to grow steadily.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	886
the pattern of revisions to gdp in the first quarter, with stronger final domestic demand and imports, and weaker stockbuilding, suggested stronger growth in subsequent quarters.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	1,999	682
this was expected to limit increases in unemployment in 2020 h2.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	931
but it was far from clear that it had been modest enough, because the growth in real wage costs faced by employers had outstripped trend productivity growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,006	181
the housing market seemed to have slowed, which appeared consistent with slowing consumption growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	80
the trade deficit deteriorated in may to £1.2 billion from £0.7 billion in april mainly due to oil and erratic trade with non-eu countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	497
several central banks had tightened monetary policy further and had noted that policy was dampening economic activity.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	63
movements in sterling over the month appeared largely unrelated to changes in uk yields relative to overseas.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	79
more timely data were available for some individual economies; german industrial production had risen by 1.0% in april, but that was still 1.3% lower than a year ago, while french industrial production had fallen by 0.3% in april, and had been flat on the year-on-year comparison.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	406
but there were signs of improvement in corporate profitability, which could support investment.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,000	786
a20 uk equities in all capitalisation groups had risen since the committee’s january meeting.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	311
consistent with the committee’s decision at its february 2022 meeting to begin to reduce the stock of uk government bond purchases by ceasing to reinvest maturing assets, the £5.9 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the september 2022 gilt held by the apf would not be reinvested.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	986
concern about the health of the us economy was one candidate trigger for the volatility in financial markets.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	821
the chartered institute of purchasing and supply’s manufacturing survey showed a rebound in manufacturing activity, with the balances for output, orders and export orders all rising.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	33
but there had been very little change to the pattern of growth through the unusually large discrepancy between the output and expenditure measures of gdp in q1, seen in the earlier estimate, had been revised down.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,000	296
a45 the agents had reported that recent strong annual retail sales growth had been maintained into january.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,001	62
a30 according to the labour force survey (lfs), there had been a sharp increase in employment of 110,000 (0.4%) in q3, following growth of 0.2% in q2.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	211
non-farm payrolls had risen by 268,000 in january, following a (downwardly revised) increase of 19,000 in december.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,001	339
there had been very strong gross issuance in non-financial corporate bond markets, although in the united kingdom these markets continued to be accessed by a relatively small number of companies.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	542
market contacts expected the mpc to extend its asset purchase programme at its june meeting.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	56
a42 cpi inflation had fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% in february.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	396
the gdp release had also contained the first estimate of the q2 expenditure components, although the ons’s new publication schedule for gdp data meant that a slightly smaller proportion of measured expenditure data was available than had been the case previously.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	768
measured labour productivity had fallen sharply during the recession, but had begun to recover.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	628
the production and new orders components had both been above the neutral ‘50’ level for the first time this year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	764
if anything, slightly less of the consolidation was now planned during the committee’s three-year forecast period, with correspondingly more after that.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	545
the gfk consumer confidence balance had fallen slightly in june, with a decline in the reported willingness to make a major purchase.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	340
the trend in recent months suggested that vacancies had stopped increasing, but this had been distorted by adjustments to allow for the over-count of vacancies.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,998	742
a20 since the committee’s previous meeting, uk equity indices had fallen, and they had been very volatile during the period.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,002	30
the world economy was also strong.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	657
despite weaker data on particulars delivered, leading indicators such as mortgage approvals data pointed to relatively stable conditions in the housing market.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,001	241
it was possible that these new data could lead the ons to revise down its preliminary estimate for gdp growth of -1.5% that it had published in january.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,009	324
on the other hand, adjusting awe data on a cpi-weighted basis indicated that pay growth could be moderating at a slower pace than the headline data were suggesting.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	725
but other factors might also have been important, including a slowing in the growth rates of both housing and net financial wealth, and temporary effects such as wet weather in june and reduced incentives to buy motor vehicles.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,004	449
once duties and petroleum products were excluded, output price inflation was broadly stable at around 1½%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,005	407
on one view, the slowdown in manufacturing growth was likely to have knock-on effects for services, directly through the dependence of business services on the production industries, and indirectly via slower personal sector income growth if wage growth and employment fell in manufacturing.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	1,998	53
a38 the annual inflation rate of the gdp deflator at market prices had risen to 3.6% in 2002 q1, from 2.7% in 2001 q4.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	200
private sector regular average weekly earnings growth had declined to 4.9% in the three months to july.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	97
but it usually was at that time of year, so underlying conditions were difficult to assess.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	1,999	150
both had been drifting up in recent months, perhaps reflecting the relative performance of the uk economy.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	194
within that, estimated domestic demand had been weaker than the committee had expected, while net trade had contributed rather more to growth than expected.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	747
there was a range of views among these members regarding the risks around the assumptions on persistence embodied in the may cpi projection.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	310
the level of the corporate sector financial balance had generally been revised down since 2000, compared with the previous estimates.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	7
it was likely that the degree of slack in the labour market had remained higher than implied by this measure, however.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	805
activity indicators in a number of peripheral euro-area countries had remained weak, and there had been further evidence of differentiation by financial market participants between them.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	390
a53 in reports outside the survey, agents had noted falls in manufacturing employment and a further easing in service sector employment.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,002	245
in contrast, final domestic demand was estimated to have grown faster than output in 2008 q1.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	18
it was then expected to decline to some way below the 2% target in years two and three of the projection.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	341
inventory levels and the inventory/shipments ratio had both fallen in december.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	286
however, a large reduction in bank rate now would increase the upside risk to inflation.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	461
in part, that was because the anticipated modest expansion in supply capacity would help to slow the rate at which slack was absorbed, thereby limiting the build-up of domestic inflationary pressure.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	656
the fact that bank rate had been cut from 5% in september to 2% meant that there was a substantial monetary stimulus already in the system.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,009	363
during 2014, the sterling index had risen above the top of the range it had previously_ occupied in the period since the financial crisis.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	940
indicators of labour market tightness had nevertheless remained elevated.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	649
the mpc’s latest central projections were also conditioned on the assumption of an immediate, orderly move to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the european union on 1 january 2021.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	15
in the united kingdom, there was little to alter the view that output was likely to be broadly flat in 2011 q4 and 2012 q1.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	342
a51 economists polled by reuters between 29 and 31 october had attached mean probabilities of 55% to no change in the bank’s repo rate, 43% to a decrease of 25 basis points and 2% to a decrease of 50 basis points.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,002	798
lfs employment had grown by 0.2% in the three months to january, slightly stronger than had been expected at the time of the february report.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	873
following the governor’s announcement in his mansion house speech on 19 july that the mpc would publish more details on its strategy for beginning to sell the gilts held in the asset purchase facility alongside the august monetary policy report, a majority of market participants now expected that such sales would begin shortly after the mpc’s september meeting.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	123
the rise in bank borrowing had coincided with a decline in other external finance.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	906
annual services price inflation had been unchanged at 4.0% and annual goods price inflation had remained unchanged at 0.7% in june.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	722
the measured volume of government output in january had been reduced by sharp falls in education output as schools had closed again.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	110
the slowdown in the rate of job creation in may was sharper than most commentators had expected, but revisions to march and april data raised the level of non-farm payrolls by 185,000.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	31
a8 sterling initially rose following the russian turmoil – with the uk effective exchange rate index increasing around 2½% to 106.7 – as the united kingdom was perceived to be relatively insulated from the emerging market problems.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	664
there had been further news on the month about some of the factors influencing demand.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	720
changes in opec production would, however, probably remain a key driver of oil prices.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	521
longer-term interest rates in the united kingdom, the united states and germany had fallen modestly on the month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	175
a broadly flat position was the best assessment of the short-term trend.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,998	392
one possibility was that the composition of demand would normalise and that any sectoral re-adjustment on the supply side might be relatively quick.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	817
rates implied by the contract for september 2002 had fallen by 36 basis points and those implied by the contract for september 2003 had fallen by 60 basis points.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	953
uncertainty about the result of the referendum had continued to have a strong effect on sterling exchange rates, with some sharp movements in sterling during the month following the release of opinion polls.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	328
this would be expected to reduce uncertainty about the path of the economy, supporting future spending by households and companies.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	126
there had been a decline in the bank’s regional agents’ scores for investment intentions and a reduction in capital goods orders had been reported in the latest cips/ntc survey of manufacturing.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	4
second, there were some possible downside risks to the outlook.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,004	889
that supported the view that the october figures had been temporarily depressed by the impact on sentiment of the financial market turbulence seen in the middle of that month.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	989
in any event, all members agreed that these domestic developments needed to be set against those in the external environment.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	726
external forecasters’ projections are higher on average than the mpc’s central projection at the one-year horizon, but lower three years ahead.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	414
the sterling exchange rate had been 0.7% above the august inflation report projection.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	965
real consumption had increased by 0.8% in july, following a fall of 0.4% in june.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	661
the previous release had shown a fall of 0.2%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	9
the pace of recovery still depended critically on the interplay of the various underlying tailwinds and headwinds affecting activity.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	197
there had been little movement in inflation expectations over the month.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	435
developments in the international economy had been supportive of uk activity, with business surveys internationally being consistent with sustained demand growth in the near term.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	553
in japan, gdp had been revised down and was estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in 2014 q3.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	887
annual growth of m4 had risen to 8.0% in april, from 7.3% in march.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,003	160
there was also a degree of uncertainty over the seasonal adjustment of the data in the first quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	637
longer-term nominal forward interest rates had changed little over the period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	950
german growth in the second quarter had been 2.2% and, given the continued fall in unemployment, it was possible that some of the pickup in consumer spending growth might be sustained in the third quarter.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	799
there was also little sign that the labour market was yet on the turn, although some forward-looking indicators continued to suggest that it might be soon.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	88
such operations were a natural extension of the committee’s usual monetary policy operations.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,009	487

a key question was whether the current low level of cpi inflation reflected underlying changes in the economy, such as an increase in productivity growth, that the committee had underestimated and which could pose downside risks.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,004

157

in part, the slowdown in domestic demand in recent months might have reflected a supply shock.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

269

but there was some tentative evidence that consumer spending might have moderated during the quarter: the cbi distributive trades survey suggested some easing in march, consumer confidence had fallen slightly, and unsecured lending had dropped back a little in february.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,004

336

prices had responded to a range of supply factors, including the impact of us sanctions on russia affecting its aluminium production, as well as uncertainty related to trade policy.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

586

covid vaccination programmes have progressed and picked up pace in many countries.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,021

908

respondents were unanimous that if the repo rate were to be left unchanged this month, it would be raised in may.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,004

14

sources: bank of england, bloomberg finance l.p. and bank calculations.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,020

582

on the corporate side, the bank of england’s credit conditions survey for q1 had shown an improvement in the expected availability of corporate credit.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,009

293

mean inflation expectations of the general public at 12 and 24 months ahead, as surveyed by basix, had risen slightly on the quarter.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

34

in the united states, the federal reserve had announced that it would purchase $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities per month, in addition to reinvesting funds from maturing assets, until there had been a sustained improvement in labour market conditions.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

706

non-financial corporations had issued new bonds at a record rate during 2012 so far and march had seen the first sub-investment grade issue by a uk company since summer 2011.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

326

a30 employment had continued to grow steadily.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

886

the pattern of revisions to gdp in the first quarter, with stronger final domestic demand and imports, and weaker stockbuilding, suggested stronger growth in subsequent quarters.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

1,999

682

this was expected to limit increases in unemployment in 2020 h2.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

931

but it was far from clear that it had been modest enough, because the growth in real wage costs faced by employers had outstripped trend productivity growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,006

181

the housing market seemed to have slowed, which appeared consistent with slowing consumption growth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

80

the trade deficit deteriorated in may to £1.2 billion from £0.7 billion in april mainly due to oil and erratic trade with non-eu countries.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

497

several central banks had tightened monetary policy further and had noted that policy was dampening economic activity.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

63

movements in sterling over the month appeared largely unrelated to changes in uk yields relative to overseas.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,999

79

more timely data were available for some individual economies; german industrial production had risen by 1.0% in april, but that was still 1.3% lower than a year ago, while french industrial production had fallen by 0.3% in april, and had been flat on the year-on-year comparison.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,999

406

but there were signs of improvement in corporate profitability, which could support investment.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,000

786

a20 uk equities in all capitalisation groups had risen since the committee’s january meeting.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

311

consistent with the committee’s decision at its february 2022 meeting to begin to reduce the stock of uk government bond purchases by ceasing to reinvest maturing assets, the £5.9 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the september 2022 gilt held by the apf would not be reinvested.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

986

concern about the health of the us economy was one candidate trigger for the volatility in financial markets.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

821

the chartered institute of purchasing and supply’s manufacturing survey showed a rebound in manufacturing activity, with the balances for output, orders and export orders all rising.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,000

33

but there had been very little change to the pattern of growth through the unusually large discrepancy between the output and expenditure measures of gdp in q1, seen in the earlier estimate, had been revised down.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,000

296

a45 the agents had reported that recent strong annual retail sales growth had been maintained into january.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,001

62

a30 according to the labour force survey (lfs), there had been a sharp increase in employment of 110,000 (0.4%) in q3, following growth of 0.2% in q2.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

211

non-farm payrolls had risen by 268,000 in january, following a (downwardly revised) increase of 19,000 in december.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,001

339

there had been very strong gross issuance in non-financial corporate bond markets, although in the united kingdom these markets continued to be accessed by a relatively small number of companies.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

542

market contacts expected the mpc to extend its asset purchase programme at its june meeting.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

56

a42 cpi inflation had fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% in february.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

396

the gdp release had also contained the first estimate of the q2 expenditure components, although the ons’s new publication schedule for gdp data meant that a slightly smaller proportion of measured expenditure data was available than had been the case previously.

irrelevant

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

768

measured labour productivity had fallen sharply during the recession, but had begun to recover.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

628

the production and new orders components had both been above the neutral ‘50’ level for the first time this year.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

764

if anything, slightly less of the consolidation was now planned during the committee’s three-year forecast period, with correspondingly more after that.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

545

the gfk consumer confidence balance had fallen slightly in june, with a decline in the reported willingness to make a major purchase.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

340

the trend in recent months suggested that vacancies had stopped increasing, but this had been distorted by adjustments to allow for the over-count of vacancies.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

1,998

742

a20 since the committee’s previous meeting, uk equity indices had fallen, and they had been very volatile during the period.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,002

30

the world economy was also strong.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

657

despite weaker data on particulars delivered, leading indicators such as mortgage approvals data pointed to relatively stable conditions in the housing market.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,001

241

it was possible that these new data could lead the ons to revise down its preliminary estimate for gdp growth of -1.5% that it had published in january.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,009

324

on the other hand, adjusting awe data on a cpi-weighted basis indicated that pay growth could be moderating at a slower pace than the headline data were suggesting.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

725

but other factors might also have been important, including a slowing in the growth rates of both housing and net financial wealth, and temporary effects such as wet weather in june and reduced incentives to buy motor vehicles.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,004

449

once duties and petroleum products were excluded, output price inflation was broadly stable at around 1½%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,005

407

on one view, the slowdown in manufacturing growth was likely to have knock-on effects for services, directly through the dependence of business services on the production industries, and indirectly via slower personal sector income growth if wage growth and employment fell in manufacturing.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

1,998

53

a38 the annual inflation rate of the gdp deflator at market prices had risen to 3.6% in 2002 q1, from 2.7% in 2001 q4.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

200

private sector regular average weekly earnings growth had declined to 4.9% in the three months to july.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

97

but it usually was at that time of year, so underlying conditions were difficult to assess.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

1,999

150

both had been drifting up in recent months, perhaps reflecting the relative performance of the uk economy.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,014

194

within that, estimated domestic demand had been weaker than the committee had expected, while net trade had contributed rather more to growth than expected.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

747

there was a range of views among these members regarding the risks around the assumptions on persistence embodied in the may cpi projection.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,024

310

the level of the corporate sector financial balance had generally been revised down since 2000, compared with the previous estimates.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,003

7

it was likely that the degree of slack in the labour market had remained higher than implied by this measure, however.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

805

activity indicators in a number of peripheral euro-area countries had remained weak, and there had been further evidence of differentiation by financial market participants between them.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

390

a53 in reports outside the survey, agents had noted falls in manufacturing employment and a further easing in service sector employment.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,002

245

in contrast, final domestic demand was estimated to have grown faster than output in 2008 q1.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

18

it was then expected to decline to some way below the 2% target in years two and three of the projection.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

341

inventory levels and the inventory/shipments ratio had both fallen in december.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

286

however, a large reduction in bank rate now would increase the upside risk to inflation.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

461

in part, that was because the anticipated modest expansion in supply capacity would help to slow the rate at which slack was absorbed, thereby limiting the build-up of domestic inflationary pressure.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

656

the fact that bank rate had been cut from 5% in september to 2% meant that there was a substantial monetary stimulus already in the system.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,009

363

during 2014, the sterling index had risen above the top of the range it had previously_ occupied in the period since the financial crisis.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

940

indicators of labour market tightness had nevertheless remained elevated.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

649

the mpc’s latest central projections were also conditioned on the assumption of an immediate, orderly move to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the european union on 1 january 2021.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

15

in the united kingdom, there was little to alter the view that output was likely to be broadly flat in 2011 q4 and 2012 q1.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

342

a51 economists polled by reuters between 29 and 31 october had attached mean probabilities of 55% to no change in the bank’s repo rate, 43% to a decrease of 25 basis points and 2% to a decrease of 50 basis points.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,002

798

lfs employment had grown by 0.2% in the three months to january, slightly stronger than had been expected at the time of the february report.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

873

following the governor’s announcement in his mansion house speech on 19 july that the mpc would publish more details on its strategy for beginning to sell the gilts held in the asset purchase facility alongside the august monetary policy report, a majority of market participants now expected that such sales would begin shortly after the mpc’s september meeting.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

123

the rise in bank borrowing had coincided with a decline in other external finance.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,001

906

annual services price inflation had been unchanged at 4.0% and annual goods price inflation had remained unchanged at 0.7% in june.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,001

722

the measured volume of government output in january had been reduced by sharp falls in education output as schools had closed again.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

110

the slowdown in the rate of job creation in may was sharper than most commentators had expected, but revisions to march and april data raised the level of non-farm payrolls by 185,000.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

1,999

31

a8 sterling initially rose following the russian turmoil – with the uk effective exchange rate index increasing around 2½% to 106.7 – as the united kingdom was perceived to be relatively insulated from the emerging market problems.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

1,998

664

there had been further news on the month about some of the factors influencing demand.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

720

changes in opec production would, however, probably remain a key driver of oil prices.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

521

longer-term interest rates in the united kingdom, the united states and germany had fallen modestly on the month.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

175

a broadly flat position was the best assessment of the short-term trend.

neutral

forward looking

certain

1,998

392

one possibility was that the composition of demand would normalise and that any sectoral re-adjustment on the supply side might be relatively quick.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

817

rates implied by the contract for september 2002 had fallen by 36 basis points and those implied by the contract for september 2003 had fallen by 60 basis points.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,002

953

uncertainty about the result of the referendum had continued to have a strong effect on sterling exchange rates, with some sharp movements in sterling during the month following the release of opinion polls.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

328

this would be expected to reduce uncertainty about the path of the economy, supporting future spending by households and companies.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

126

there had been a decline in the bank’s regional agents’ scores for investment intentions and a reduction in capital goods orders had been reported in the latest cips/ntc survey of manufacturing.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

4

second, there were some possible downside risks to the outlook.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,004

889

that supported the view that the october figures had been temporarily depressed by the impact on sentiment of the financial market turbulence seen in the middle of that month.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,014

989

in any event, all members agreed that these domestic developments needed to be set against those in the external environment.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

726

external forecasters’ projections are higher on average than the mpc’s central projection at the one-year horizon, but lower three years ahead.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

414

the sterling exchange rate had been 0.7% above the august inflation report projection.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,001

965

real consumption had increased by 0.8% in july, following a fall of 0.4% in june.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,004

661

the previous release had shown a fall of 0.2%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,001

9

the pace of recovery still depended critically on the interplay of the various underlying tailwinds and headwinds affecting activity.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

197

there had been little movement in inflation expectations over the month.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

435

developments in the international economy had been supportive of uk activity, with business surveys internationally being consistent with sustained demand growth in the near term.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

553

in japan, gdp had been revised down and was estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in 2014 q3.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

887

annual growth of m4 had risen to 8.0% in april, from 7.3% in march.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,003

160

there was also a degree of uncertainty over the seasonal adjustment of the data in the first quarter.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

637

longer-term nominal forward interest rates had changed little over the period.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,003

950

german growth in the second quarter had been 2.2% and, given the continued fall in unemployment, it was possible that some of the pickup in consumer spending growth might be sustained in the third quarter.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

799

there was also little sign that the labour market was yet on the turn, although some forward-looking indicators continued to suggest that it might be soon.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,001

88

such operations were a natural extension of the committee’s usual monetary policy operations.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,009

487