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a key question was whether the current low level of cpi inflation reflected underlying changes in the economy, such as an increase in productivity growth, that the committee had underestimated and which could pose downside risks. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 157 |
in part, the slowdown in domestic demand in recent months might have reflected a supply shock. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 269 |
but there was some tentative evidence that consumer spending might have moderated during the quarter: the cbi distributive trades survey suggested some easing in march, consumer confidence had fallen slightly, and unsecured lending had dropped back a little in february. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 336 |
prices had responded to a range of supply factors, including the impact of us sanctions on russia affecting its aluminium production, as well as uncertainty related to trade policy. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 586 |
covid vaccination programmes have progressed and picked up pace in many countries. | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 908 |
respondents were unanimous that if the repo rate were to be left unchanged this month, it would be raised in may. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 14 |
sources: bank of england, bloomberg finance l.p. and bank calculations. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 582 |
on the corporate side, the bank of england’s credit conditions survey for q1 had shown an improvement in the expected availability of corporate credit. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 293 |
mean inflation expectations of the general public at 12 and 24 months ahead, as surveyed by basix, had risen slightly on the quarter. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 34 |
in the united states, the federal reserve had announced that it would purchase $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities per month, in addition to reinvesting funds from maturing assets, until there had been a sustained improvement in labour market conditions. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 706 |
non-financial corporations had issued new bonds at a record rate during 2012 so far and march had seen the first sub-investment grade issue by a uk company since summer 2011. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 326 |
a30 employment had continued to grow steadily. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 886 |
the pattern of revisions to gdp in the first quarter, with stronger final domestic demand and imports, and weaker stockbuilding, suggested stronger growth in subsequent quarters. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 682 |
this was expected to limit increases in unemployment in 2020 h2. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 931 |
but it was far from clear that it had been modest enough, because the growth in real wage costs faced by employers had outstripped trend productivity growth. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,006 | 181 |
the housing market seemed to have slowed, which appeared consistent with slowing consumption growth. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 80 |
the trade deficit deteriorated in may to £1.2 billion from £0.7 billion in april mainly due to oil and erratic trade with non-eu countries. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 497 |
several central banks had tightened monetary policy further and had noted that policy was dampening economic activity. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 63 |
movements in sterling over the month appeared largely unrelated to changes in uk yields relative to overseas. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 79 |
more timely data were available for some individual economies; german industrial production had risen by 1.0% in april, but that was still 1.3% lower than a year ago, while french industrial production had fallen by 0.3% in april, and had been flat on the year-on-year comparison. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 406 |
but there were signs of improvement in corporate profitability, which could support investment. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,000 | 786 |
a20 uk equities in all capitalisation groups had risen since the committee’s january meeting. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 311 |
consistent with the committee’s decision at its february 2022 meeting to begin to reduce the stock of uk government bond purchases by ceasing to reinvest maturing assets, the £5.9 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the september 2022 gilt held by the apf would not be reinvested. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 986 |
concern about the health of the us economy was one candidate trigger for the volatility in financial markets. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 821 |
the chartered institute of purchasing and supply’s manufacturing survey showed a rebound in manufacturing activity, with the balances for output, orders and export orders all rising. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 33 |
but there had been very little change to the pattern of growth through the unusually large discrepancy between the output and expenditure measures of gdp in q1, seen in the earlier estimate, had been revised down. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,000 | 296 |
a45 the agents had reported that recent strong annual retail sales growth had been maintained into january. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,001 | 62 |
a30 according to the labour force survey (lfs), there had been a sharp increase in employment of 110,000 (0.4%) in q3, following growth of 0.2% in q2. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 211 |
non-farm payrolls had risen by 268,000 in january, following a (downwardly revised) increase of 19,000 in december. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,001 | 339 |
there had been very strong gross issuance in non-financial corporate bond markets, although in the united kingdom these markets continued to be accessed by a relatively small number of companies. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 542 |
market contacts expected the mpc to extend its asset purchase programme at its june meeting. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 56 |
a42 cpi inflation had fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% in february. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 396 |
the gdp release had also contained the first estimate of the q2 expenditure components, although the ons’s new publication schedule for gdp data meant that a slightly smaller proportion of measured expenditure data was available than had been the case previously. | irrelevant | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 768 |
measured labour productivity had fallen sharply during the recession, but had begun to recover. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 628 |
the production and new orders components had both been above the neutral ‘50’ level for the first time this year. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 764 |
if anything, slightly less of the consolidation was now planned during the committee’s three-year forecast period, with correspondingly more after that. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 545 |
the gfk consumer confidence balance had fallen slightly in june, with a decline in the reported willingness to make a major purchase. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 340 |
the trend in recent months suggested that vacancies had stopped increasing, but this had been distorted by adjustments to allow for the over-count of vacancies. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 742 |
a20 since the committee’s previous meeting, uk equity indices had fallen, and they had been very volatile during the period. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,002 | 30 |
the world economy was also strong. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 657 |
despite weaker data on particulars delivered, leading indicators such as mortgage approvals data pointed to relatively stable conditions in the housing market. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,001 | 241 |
it was possible that these new data could lead the ons to revise down its preliminary estimate for gdp growth of -1.5% that it had published in january. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 324 |
on the other hand, adjusting awe data on a cpi-weighted basis indicated that pay growth could be moderating at a slower pace than the headline data were suggesting. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 725 |
but other factors might also have been important, including a slowing in the growth rates of both housing and net financial wealth, and temporary effects such as wet weather in june and reduced incentives to buy motor vehicles. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 449 |
once duties and petroleum products were excluded, output price inflation was broadly stable at around 1½%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 407 |
on one view, the slowdown in manufacturing growth was likely to have knock-on effects for services, directly through the dependence of business services on the production industries, and indirectly via slower personal sector income growth if wage growth and employment fell in manufacturing. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,998 | 53 |
a38 the annual inflation rate of the gdp deflator at market prices had risen to 3.6% in 2002 q1, from 2.7% in 2001 q4. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 200 |
private sector regular average weekly earnings growth had declined to 4.9% in the three months to july. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 97 |
but it usually was at that time of year, so underlying conditions were difficult to assess. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 1,999 | 150 |
both had been drifting up in recent months, perhaps reflecting the relative performance of the uk economy. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 194 |
within that, estimated domestic demand had been weaker than the committee had expected, while net trade had contributed rather more to growth than expected. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 747 |
there was a range of views among these members regarding the risks around the assumptions on persistence embodied in the may cpi projection. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 310 |
the level of the corporate sector financial balance had generally been revised down since 2000, compared with the previous estimates. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 7 |
it was likely that the degree of slack in the labour market had remained higher than implied by this measure, however. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 805 |
activity indicators in a number of peripheral euro-area countries had remained weak, and there had been further evidence of differentiation by financial market participants between them. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 390 |
a53 in reports outside the survey, agents had noted falls in manufacturing employment and a further easing in service sector employment. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,002 | 245 |
in contrast, final domestic demand was estimated to have grown faster than output in 2008 q1. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 18 |
it was then expected to decline to some way below the 2% target in years two and three of the projection. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 341 |
inventory levels and the inventory/shipments ratio had both fallen in december. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 286 |
however, a large reduction in bank rate now would increase the upside risk to inflation. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 461 |
in part, that was because the anticipated modest expansion in supply capacity would help to slow the rate at which slack was absorbed, thereby limiting the build-up of domestic inflationary pressure. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 656 |
the fact that bank rate had been cut from 5% in september to 2% meant that there was a substantial monetary stimulus already in the system. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 363 |
during 2014, the sterling index had risen above the top of the range it had previously_ occupied in the period since the financial crisis. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 940 |
indicators of labour market tightness had nevertheless remained elevated. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 649 |
the mpc’s latest central projections were also conditioned on the assumption of an immediate, orderly move to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the european union on 1 january 2021. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 15 |
in the united kingdom, there was little to alter the view that output was likely to be broadly flat in 2011 q4 and 2012 q1. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 342 |
a51 economists polled by reuters between 29 and 31 october had attached mean probabilities of 55% to no change in the bank’s repo rate, 43% to a decrease of 25 basis points and 2% to a decrease of 50 basis points. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,002 | 798 |
lfs employment had grown by 0.2% in the three months to january, slightly stronger than had been expected at the time of the february report. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 873 |
following the governor’s announcement in his mansion house speech on 19 july that the mpc would publish more details on its strategy for beginning to sell the gilts held in the asset purchase facility alongside the august monetary policy report, a majority of market participants now expected that such sales would begin shortly after the mpc’s september meeting. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 123 |
the rise in bank borrowing had coincided with a decline in other external finance. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 906 |
annual services price inflation had been unchanged at 4.0% and annual goods price inflation had remained unchanged at 0.7% in june. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 722 |
the measured volume of government output in january had been reduced by sharp falls in education output as schools had closed again. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 110 |
the slowdown in the rate of job creation in may was sharper than most commentators had expected, but revisions to march and april data raised the level of non-farm payrolls by 185,000. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 1,999 | 31 |
a8 sterling initially rose following the russian turmoil – with the uk effective exchange rate index increasing around 2½% to 106.7 – as the united kingdom was perceived to be relatively insulated from the emerging market problems. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 664 |
there had been further news on the month about some of the factors influencing demand. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 720 |
changes in opec production would, however, probably remain a key driver of oil prices. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 521 |
longer-term interest rates in the united kingdom, the united states and germany had fallen modestly on the month. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 175 |
a broadly flat position was the best assessment of the short-term trend. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 1,998 | 392 |
one possibility was that the composition of demand would normalise and that any sectoral re-adjustment on the supply side might be relatively quick. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 817 |
rates implied by the contract for september 2002 had fallen by 36 basis points and those implied by the contract for september 2003 had fallen by 60 basis points. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 953 |
uncertainty about the result of the referendum had continued to have a strong effect on sterling exchange rates, with some sharp movements in sterling during the month following the release of opinion polls. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 328 |
this would be expected to reduce uncertainty about the path of the economy, supporting future spending by households and companies. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 126 |
there had been a decline in the bank’s regional agents’ scores for investment intentions and a reduction in capital goods orders had been reported in the latest cips/ntc survey of manufacturing. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 4 |
second, there were some possible downside risks to the outlook. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,004 | 889 |
that supported the view that the october figures had been temporarily depressed by the impact on sentiment of the financial market turbulence seen in the middle of that month. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 989 |
in any event, all members agreed that these domestic developments needed to be set against those in the external environment. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 726 |
external forecasters’ projections are higher on average than the mpc’s central projection at the one-year horizon, but lower three years ahead. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 414 |
the sterling exchange rate had been 0.7% above the august inflation report projection. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 965 |
real consumption had increased by 0.8% in july, following a fall of 0.4% in june. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 661 |
the previous release had shown a fall of 0.2%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 9 |
the pace of recovery still depended critically on the interplay of the various underlying tailwinds and headwinds affecting activity. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 197 |
there had been little movement in inflation expectations over the month. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 435 |
developments in the international economy had been supportive of uk activity, with business surveys internationally being consistent with sustained demand growth in the near term. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 553 |
in japan, gdp had been revised down and was estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in 2014 q3. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 887 |
annual growth of m4 had risen to 8.0% in april, from 7.3% in march. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 160 |
there was also a degree of uncertainty over the seasonal adjustment of the data in the first quarter. | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 637 |
longer-term nominal forward interest rates had changed little over the period. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 950 |
german growth in the second quarter had been 2.2% and, given the continued fall in unemployment, it was possible that some of the pickup in consumer spending growth might be sustained in the third quarter. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 799 |
there was also little sign that the labour market was yet on the turn, although some forward-looking indicators continued to suggest that it might be soon. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 88 |
such operations were a natural extension of the committee’s usual monetary policy operations. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 487 |
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