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999
a key question was whether the current low level of cpi inflation reflected underlying changes in the economy, such as an increase in productivity growth, that the committee had underestimated and which could pose downside risks.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,004
157
in part, the slowdown in domestic demand in recent months might have reflected a supply shock.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
269
but there was some tentative evidence that consumer spending might have moderated during the quarter: the cbi distributive trades survey suggested some easing in march, consumer confidence had fallen slightly, and unsecured lending had dropped back a little in february.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,004
336
prices had responded to a range of supply factors, including the impact of us sanctions on russia affecting its aluminium production, as well as uncertainty related to trade policy.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
586
covid vaccination programmes have progressed and picked up pace in many countries.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,021
908
respondents were unanimous that if the repo rate were to be left unchanged this month, it would be raised in may.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,004
14
sources: bank of england, bloomberg finance l.p. and bank calculations.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,020
582
on the corporate side, the bank of england’s credit conditions survey for q1 had shown an improvement in the expected availability of corporate credit.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
293
mean inflation expectations of the general public at 12 and 24 months ahead, as surveyed by basix, had risen slightly on the quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,998
34
in the united states, the federal reserve had announced that it would purchase $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities per month, in addition to reinvesting funds from maturing assets, until there had been a sustained improvement in labour market conditions.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,012
706
non-financial corporations had issued new bonds at a record rate during 2012 so far and march had seen the first sub-investment grade issue by a uk company since summer 2011.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
326
a30 employment had continued to grow steadily.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
886
the pattern of revisions to gdp in the first quarter, with stronger final domestic demand and imports, and weaker stockbuilding, suggested stronger growth in subsequent quarters.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
1,999
682
this was expected to limit increases in unemployment in 2020 h2.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
931
but it was far from clear that it had been modest enough, because the growth in real wage costs faced by employers had outstripped trend productivity growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,006
181
the housing market seemed to have slowed, which appeared consistent with slowing consumption growth.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
80
the trade deficit deteriorated in may to £1.2 billion from £0.7 billion in april mainly due to oil and erratic trade with non-eu countries.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
1,998
497
several central banks had tightened monetary policy further and had noted that policy was dampening economic activity.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
63
movements in sterling over the month appeared largely unrelated to changes in uk yields relative to overseas.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
1,999
79
more timely data were available for some individual economies; german industrial production had risen by 1.0% in april, but that was still 1.3% lower than a year ago, while french industrial production had fallen by 0.3% in april, and had been flat on the year-on-year comparison.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
1,999
406
but there were signs of improvement in corporate profitability, which could support investment.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,000
786
a20 uk equities in all capitalisation groups had risen since the committee’s january meeting.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
311
consistent with the committee’s decision at its february 2022 meeting to begin to reduce the stock of uk government bond purchases by ceasing to reinvest maturing assets, the £5.9 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the september 2022 gilt held by the apf would not be reinvested.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
986
concern about the health of the us economy was one candidate trigger for the volatility in financial markets.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
821
the chartered institute of purchasing and supply’s manufacturing survey showed a rebound in manufacturing activity, with the balances for output, orders and export orders all rising.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
33
but there had been very little change to the pattern of growth through the unusually large discrepancy between the output and expenditure measures of gdp in q1, seen in the earlier estimate, had been revised down.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
296
a45 the agents had reported that recent strong annual retail sales growth had been maintained into january.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,001
62
a30 according to the labour force survey (lfs), there had been a sharp increase in employment of 110,000 (0.4%) in q3, following growth of 0.2% in q2.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
211
non-farm payrolls had risen by 268,000 in january, following a (downwardly revised) increase of 19,000 in december.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,001
339
there had been very strong gross issuance in non-financial corporate bond markets, although in the united kingdom these markets continued to be accessed by a relatively small number of companies.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
542
market contacts expected the mpc to extend its asset purchase programme at its june meeting.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
56
a42 cpi inflation had fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% in february.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
396
the gdp release had also contained the first estimate of the q2 expenditure components, although the ons’s new publication schedule for gdp data meant that a slightly smaller proportion of measured expenditure data was available than had been the case previously.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
768
measured labour productivity had fallen sharply during the recession, but had begun to recover.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
628
the production and new orders components had both been above the neutral ‘50’ level for the first time this year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
764
if anything, slightly less of the consolidation was now planned during the committee’s three-year forecast period, with correspondingly more after that.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
545
the gfk consumer confidence balance had fallen slightly in june, with a decline in the reported willingness to make a major purchase.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
340
the trend in recent months suggested that vacancies had stopped increasing, but this had been distorted by adjustments to allow for the over-count of vacancies.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
1,998
742
a20 since the committee’s previous meeting, uk equity indices had fallen, and they had been very volatile during the period.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,002
30
the world economy was also strong.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
657
despite weaker data on particulars delivered, leading indicators such as mortgage approvals data pointed to relatively stable conditions in the housing market.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,001
241
it was possible that these new data could lead the ons to revise down its preliminary estimate for gdp growth of -1.5% that it had published in january.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
324
on the other hand, adjusting awe data on a cpi-weighted basis indicated that pay growth could be moderating at a slower pace than the headline data were suggesting.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
725
but other factors might also have been important, including a slowing in the growth rates of both housing and net financial wealth, and temporary effects such as wet weather in june and reduced incentives to buy motor vehicles.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,004
449
once duties and petroleum products were excluded, output price inflation was broadly stable at around 1½%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,005
407
on one view, the slowdown in manufacturing growth was likely to have knock-on effects for services, directly through the dependence of business services on the production industries, and indirectly via slower personal sector income growth if wage growth and employment fell in manufacturing.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
1,998
53
a38 the annual inflation rate of the gdp deflator at market prices had risen to 3.6% in 2002 q1, from 2.7% in 2001 q4.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
200
private sector regular average weekly earnings growth had declined to 4.9% in the three months to july.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
97
but it usually was at that time of year, so underlying conditions were difficult to assess.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
1,999
150
both had been drifting up in recent months, perhaps reflecting the relative performance of the uk economy.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,014
194
within that, estimated domestic demand had been weaker than the committee had expected, while net trade had contributed rather more to growth than expected.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
747
there was a range of views among these members regarding the risks around the assumptions on persistence embodied in the may cpi projection.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
310
the level of the corporate sector financial balance had generally been revised down since 2000, compared with the previous estimates.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,003
7
it was likely that the degree of slack in the labour market had remained higher than implied by this measure, however.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
805
activity indicators in a number of peripheral euro-area countries had remained weak, and there had been further evidence of differentiation by financial market participants between them.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
390
a53 in reports outside the survey, agents had noted falls in manufacturing employment and a further easing in service sector employment.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,002
245
in contrast, final domestic demand was estimated to have grown faster than output in 2008 q1.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
18
it was then expected to decline to some way below the 2% target in years two and three of the projection.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
341
inventory levels and the inventory/shipments ratio had both fallen in december.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
286
however, a large reduction in bank rate now would increase the upside risk to inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
461
in part, that was because the anticipated modest expansion in supply capacity would help to slow the rate at which slack was absorbed, thereby limiting the build-up of domestic inflationary pressure.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,014
656
the fact that bank rate had been cut from 5% in september to 2% meant that there was a substantial monetary stimulus already in the system.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
363
during 2014, the sterling index had risen above the top of the range it had previously_ occupied in the period since the financial crisis.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
940
indicators of labour market tightness had nevertheless remained elevated.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
649
the mpc’s latest central projections were also conditioned on the assumption of an immediate, orderly move to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the european union on 1 january 2021.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
15
in the united kingdom, there was little to alter the view that output was likely to be broadly flat in 2011 q4 and 2012 q1.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
342
a51 economists polled by reuters between 29 and 31 october had attached mean probabilities of 55% to no change in the bank’s repo rate, 43% to a decrease of 25 basis points and 2% to a decrease of 50 basis points.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,002
798
lfs employment had grown by 0.2% in the three months to january, slightly stronger than had been expected at the time of the february report.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
873
following the governor’s announcement in his mansion house speech on 19 july that the mpc would publish more details on its strategy for beginning to sell the gilts held in the asset purchase facility alongside the august monetary policy report, a majority of market participants now expected that such sales would begin shortly after the mpc’s september meeting.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
123
the rise in bank borrowing had coincided with a decline in other external finance.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
906
annual services price inflation had been unchanged at 4.0% and annual goods price inflation had remained unchanged at 0.7% in june.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
722
the measured volume of government output in january had been reduced by sharp falls in education output as schools had closed again.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
110
the slowdown in the rate of job creation in may was sharper than most commentators had expected, but revisions to march and april data raised the level of non-farm payrolls by 185,000.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
1,999
31
a8 sterling initially rose following the russian turmoil – with the uk effective exchange rate index increasing around 2½% to 106.7 – as the united kingdom was perceived to be relatively insulated from the emerging market problems.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
1,998
664
there had been further news on the month about some of the factors influencing demand.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
720
changes in opec production would, however, probably remain a key driver of oil prices.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
521
longer-term interest rates in the united kingdom, the united states and germany had fallen modestly on the month.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
175
a broadly flat position was the best assessment of the short-term trend.
neutral
forward looking
certain
1,998
392
one possibility was that the composition of demand would normalise and that any sectoral re-adjustment on the supply side might be relatively quick.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
817
rates implied by the contract for september 2002 had fallen by 36 basis points and those implied by the contract for september 2003 had fallen by 60 basis points.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
953
uncertainty about the result of the referendum had continued to have a strong effect on sterling exchange rates, with some sharp movements in sterling during the month following the release of opinion polls.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,016
328
this would be expected to reduce uncertainty about the path of the economy, supporting future spending by households and companies.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
126
there had been a decline in the bank’s regional agents’ scores for investment intentions and a reduction in capital goods orders had been reported in the latest cips/ntc survey of manufacturing.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
4
second, there were some possible downside risks to the outlook.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,004
889
that supported the view that the october figures had been temporarily depressed by the impact on sentiment of the financial market turbulence seen in the middle of that month.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,014
989
in any event, all members agreed that these domestic developments needed to be set against those in the external environment.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
726
external forecasters’ projections are higher on average than the mpc’s central projection at the one-year horizon, but lower three years ahead.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
414
the sterling exchange rate had been 0.7% above the august inflation report projection.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
965
real consumption had increased by 0.8% in july, following a fall of 0.4% in june.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
661
the previous release had shown a fall of 0.2%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
9
the pace of recovery still depended critically on the interplay of the various underlying tailwinds and headwinds affecting activity.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
197
there had been little movement in inflation expectations over the month.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
435
developments in the international economy had been supportive of uk activity, with business surveys internationally being consistent with sustained demand growth in the near term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
553
in japan, gdp had been revised down and was estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in 2014 q3.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
887
annual growth of m4 had risen to 8.0% in april, from 7.3% in march.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,003
160
there was also a degree of uncertainty over the seasonal adjustment of the data in the first quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,015
637
longer-term nominal forward interest rates had changed little over the period.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,003
950
german growth in the second quarter had been 2.2% and, given the continued fall in unemployment, it was possible that some of the pickup in consumer spending growth might be sustained in the third quarter.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
799
there was also little sign that the labour market was yet on the turn, although some forward-looking indicators continued to suggest that it might be soon.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
88
such operations were a natural extension of the committee’s usual monetary policy operations.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,009
487