gtfintechlab/national_bank_of_poland · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 42 583	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
some council members assessed that lower than expected general government deficit will partly offset rising demand in the private sector and mitigate its effect on inflation	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	265
a view was expressed that given the elevated inflation including inflation net of food and energy prices as well as the recovery in consumer demand and high wage growth, the current level of nbp interest rates, amid the current developments in inflation expectations, was too low to ensure the sustainable return of inflation to the target in the medium term	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	374
members of the council expecting somewhat faster gdp growth in the coming quarters, however, pointed to rising retail sales and industrial production and weakening decline in construction in the recent months, as well as signs of a possible rebound in investment over the subsequent quarters rise in the estimated cost and number of newly started investment	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	769
in poland the economic conditions in the first months of the year were relatively good	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	825
they also pointed out that a lowering of the demand for polish exports, due to the significant deterioration of economic growth in countries which are polands main trading partners, would be conducive to the decline in gdp growth	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,008	715
at the council meeting, it was observed that the recovery in global economic activity was continuing	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	834
in this regard, attention was drawn to a decline in inflation in the euro area, including in the euro areas major economies, significantly below the level consistent with the price stability definition of the european central bank	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	417
amid the weakened global economic conditions, activity growth has also declined in poland	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	730
this was reflected in a monthover-month decline in retail sales observed in march	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	791
the council members observed that considering the above macroeconomic conditions, the major central banks were signalling the maintenance of interest rates at a level close to zero and continued asset purchases in the subsequent quarters	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	881
despite this, the fall in inflation in many economies is gradual, since the rapid growth in nominal wages, the relatively good economic situation in services, as well as the pass through of the earlier sharp increases in production costs on consumer prices and the relatively high corporate profits are supporting further price growth	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	752
some council members assessed, however, that taking into account a possible decline in the potential growth of the polish economy as a result of the financial crisis and other factors, the current rate of economic growth was already relatively high and would not be a factor limiting the inflation rise in poland	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	667
certain council members judged that the rising prices of this commodity reflected an optimistic assessment of the outlook for global demand by investors, supported by the progress of the covid-19 vaccination programmes and the highly expansionary economic policy in many countries	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	880
against this background, a few council members pointed out that even if standards for household lending were eased, this would not translate into any marked rebound in household lending due to declining household credit demand	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	187
the consistently low level of inflation expectations of economic agents were also highlighted	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	535
it was also argued that the growth in prices of market services had already been following an upward trend for a longer period, and its one-off drop in mid-2007 resulted from the way in which price promotions were accounted for in the price index	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	195
in this context, certain council members judged that loose monetary conditions in major advanced economies had contributed to a strong rise in financial asset and real estate prices in previous years	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	356
the council members assessed that incoming data pointed to an improvement in sentiment and a revival in economic activity in the past few months, even though gdp would remain lower in 2020 q3 than the year before	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	27
while analysing the inflationary developments, some members of the council emphasized that decline in january inflation was more pronounced than had been forecast, and in the absence of zloty depreciation, inflation might be expected to decrease further by the end of the year	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	555
furthermore, it was observed that financial analysts forecast inflation to decline to around 2.5 next year	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	995
in april 2021, annual industrial output growth and retail sales growth had risen significantly	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	99
in this context it was pointed out that the current zloty exchange rate was stronger than in the june projection based on the necmod model and thus future inflation might prove lower than it followed from the projection	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	882
in their opinion, the pace of the domestic economic recovery would also be dependent upon further developments of the zloty exchange rate	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	504
other council members, however, pointed out that all measures of core inflation had risen since the previous month and the increase in core inflation net of food and fuel prices was significant as compared to the changes of this indicator over the past year	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	810
those members were also of the opinion that low interest rates weakened the selection of economic agents and consequently inhibited productivity growth	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	452
it was also noted that capacity utilization in the economy had grown in 2013 q1, and that in line with available forecasts gdp growth should not decrease further and it is expected to accelerate gradually over coming quarters	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	602
at the same time, while addressing future decisions, some council members were of the opinion that another interest rate cut in the coming months might be justified should there be no clear signs of rebound in the polish economy, and should the likelihood of inflation persisting below the nbp target in the medium term rise	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	631
in this context, certain council members pointed out that particularly in view of the need for increased public expenditure on the military and on energy transformation the room for increasing the expansiveness of fiscal policy was limited and rather consolidation policies should be expected	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	410
in turn, a marked increase in asset prices amidst persisting moderate global economic growth proves, in the opinion of these council members, that additional liquidity had been used to invest in financial assets	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	321
as a result, they judged that there was no cost pressure in the economy that would result from excessive wage growth	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	28
according to certain council members, there was increased risk of a strong external shock which by weakening the economic growth of polands trading partners and causing a deterioration in investors sentiment towards the assets of emerging markets could lead to a slowdown in polish gdp growth	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	951
the major central banks including the ecb and the fed continue their highly accommodative monetary policy and emphasise in their communications the considerable uncertainty about the prospects for the economy and the temporary nature of the factors boosting inflation in 2021	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	630
the council discussed the indicated period of the probable maintenance of the nbp interest rates at an unchanged level	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	898
at the same time, according to preliminary estimates, core inflation excluding food and energy prices declined to its lowest level for over a year	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	456
other members of the council assessed that decline in gdp growth in the united states was in line with the expectations of lower potential output growth in major developed economies after the financial crisis	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	447
it was noted that economic growth would still be driven by consumption demand growth, supported by the sustained rise in household disposable income due to favourable labour market conditions combined with the increase in the minimum wage in 2020, as well as the disbursement of social benefits and the tax cuts	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	499
some council members judged that interest rates in this region might remain low for longer than currently signalled by the ecb, should the expected economic slowdown in the euro area prove stronger than indicated by the current forecasts and the rise in inflation be driven mainly by increasing energy prices, with continuously moderate core inflation	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	436
consumer expenditures are supported by improving labour market conditions, reflected particularly in rising employment and a fall in the unemployment rate, which had reached the lowest level since 2008	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	772
they underlined that price growth might be boosted by further growth in services prices, including prices of administered services	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	644
while analysing inflationary developments in poland, it was pointed out that the annual consumer price growth had decreased in december	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	213
it was emphasised that the european central bank ecb was keeping the deposit rate below zero while conducting asset purchases and signalling the maintenance of loose monetary policy in the coming quarters	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	220
the majority of the council members judged that the marked decline in inflation and the lowering of inflation expectations were contributing to an increase in the restrictiveness of monetary policy	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	11
some council members did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in the case of an economic slowdown in poland, deepening deflation or signs that behaviour of economic agents was adversely affected by negative price growth	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	806
as a result, economic growth in poland might prove to be stronger than previously forecasted	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	249
in the first months of 2024, the annual cpi growth is likely to fall significantly, while the decline in core inflation will be slower	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	482
it was pointed out that the process of lowering inflation in the major economies was slow as core inflation remained elevated, particularly due to the persistence of high service price growth amid fast wage growth	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	389
in the opinion of these council members, interest rate decisions should take into account in particular the impact of negative real interest rates on lending, asset prices and savings in the polish economy, as well as growth in the unit variable costs	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	746
growth in external sales of goods, on the other hand, had probably halted	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	121
in central and eastern europe, price growth was also decreasing, although it remained higher than in the euro area	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	952
at the meeting, the monetary policy council discussed primarily the outlook for economic growth and inflation abroad and in poland, the situation in the labour and credit markets and zloty exchange rate developments	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	231
this was indicated by moderate industrial output growth, slower retail sales growth and somewhat weaker although still upbeat household sentiment	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	129
the main topics raised at the meeting were the turbulences in international financial markets and their impact on the outlook for economic growth, the labour market situation in poland and the public finance situation	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	36
a few council members argued, however, that despite the economic recovery no significant increase in employment should be expected as during the slowdown enterprises strove to limit layoffs	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	76
these council members underlined, in particular, that private consumption would most probably remain to be a factor supporting economic growth in the nearest quarters; yet amidst temporarily slow real income growth, consumption would be financed, to a greater degree, by decrease in savings rate	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	41
moreover, some members of the council indicated that the slowdown in economic growth in the united states would affect the economic activity in the euro area, and consequently in poland, after a certain time lag	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	479
however, other council members were of the opinion that the increasing scale of child benefit payments along with the rising birth rate, the improvement in the financial situation of some consumers due to the lowering of the statutory retirement age, and in 2019 also the possible increase in social benefits and wages in the budget sector, could boost gdp growth	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	387
it was underlined that indicators of economic conditions in the manufacturing sector were also pessimistic	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	96
the council decided to keep the nbp interest rates unchanged the reference rate at 1.50, the lombard rate at 2.50, the deposit rate at 0.50, the rediscount rate at 1.75	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	463
it was emphasized that all the available inflation forecasts anticipate its decline within one year	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	360
the continued uncertainty about the global outlook, commodity prices and price growth in the environment of the polish economy were emphasised	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	609
available data also signal a recovery in investment, although as emphasised at the meeting mainly in public investment	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	618
however, other council members noted that nominal rates were at record lows, and real rates would decline along with forecasted rise in price growth	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	871
another important argument for raising the interest rates were the recent decisions leading to a decrease in revenues and an increase in expenditures of the public finance sector, which may lead to a deterioration of the public finance balance and create additional inflationary pressure in the medium term	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	971
some council members also pointed to rising business climate indicators, faster than a year ago credit growth and a further improvement in labour market conditions	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	82
however, other council members were of the opinion that wage rises for successive groups of public sector workers could be a risk factor for faster wage growth and potentially also for inflation	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	3
on the one hand, reduction of budget deficits, although likely to support economic growth in the longer run, could lead to another decline in activity in those economies in the short run	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	552
thus, the council judged that the current level of interest rates was conducive to keeping the polish economy on a sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	355
the majority of the council members judged that in light of available information stabilisation of the nbp interest rates was likely also in the following quarters	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	19
the council members also underlined that the scale and timing of the recovery would depend, above all, on the epidemic situation and the related restrictions	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	551
the council members underlined a considerable contribution from change in inventories to gdp growth in 2018 q1	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	557
it was also suggested that a better assessment of the risk of inflation overshooting the inflation target in the monetary policy transmission horizon would require macroeconomic data that were to be released before the next meeting	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,007	468
in the opinion of certain council members, in particular the lowering of the retirement age could adversely affect the labour supply	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	474
yet, it was stressed that gdp growth, having picked up considerably in 2017, might weaken slightly in the coming years and should not exceed potential output growth to a large extent	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	343
moreover, it was indicated that nominal wage growth was lower than inflation	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	228
it was emphasised that the council flexibly determined the desirable time necessary to bring inflation back to the target, as bringing inflation rapidly back to the target might entail significant costs to macroeconomic and financial stability	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	332
these meeting participants also assessed that the acceleration of interest rate increases might not reduce inflation expectations of households, which are highly adaptive in nature	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	2
at the same time, it was pointed out that annual construction and assembly production growth was negative in january 2024	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	166
the council set the nbp interest rates as follows the reference rate at 0.50, the lombard rate at 1.00, the deposit rate at 0.00, the rediscount rate at 0.55, and the discount rate at 0.60	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	641
those council members argued that particularly in the case of energy prices affected by global commodity prices, the decline might be a temporary phenomenon	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	484
at the meeting it was noted that the heightened geopolitical tensions in the middle east were a risk factor for the global economy	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	651
referring to the interest rates, the council decided that they should remain unchanged at the current meeting	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	782
yet, in the assessment of the council, this most probably was due to temporary factors	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,018	854
according to the lfs data, the number of working persons in the economy in 2022 q4 remained close to the level recorded a year before, while it declined in the private sector	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	902
it was emphasised that further monetary policy easing by the ecb in the recent period was the result of extending and increasing the scale of asset purchases	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	1
it was indicated that in recent years the links between economic conditions, wage growth and inflation had weakened in many countries	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	923
while analysing external conditions for economic activity in poland, council members pointed out that the global activity remained low	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	958
when discussing the outlook for economic growth in the context of the july projection, it was indicated that gdp growth would be relatively stable at close to 3.5 over the whole projection horizon	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	809
in the discussion about the consequences of zloty appreciation it was pointed out that it contributed to curbing inflation by decreasing imported inflation, including by easing the impact of oil price growth in the world markets on domestic prices	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	180
certain council members additionally drew attention to notable acceleration in production of minerals used in construction in late 2016	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	874
in this context, attention was drawn to the considerable inflow of refugees to poland, which would generate additional demand for consumer goods and services and would require higher investments related to the migrants, including investment in expanding the health care system, education and increasing the availability of housing	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	346
at the same time, a deterioration in residential real estate market conditions was not excluded given higher mortgage interest rates	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	856
the council decided to raise the interest rates to the following levels the reference rate to 3.75, the lombard rate to 5.25, the deposit rate to 2.25 and the rediscount rate to 4.00	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	765
however, in their opinion, in view of the persistently negative output gap, inflation was likely to remain at very low levels for several quarters ahead	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	975
they claimed that at present it was difficult to assess the impact of the governments planned changes in public expenditure and revenue on economic activity and inflation in poland	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	643
while discussing current inflation developments, it was emphasized that price growth continued on a downward trend	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	800
while discussing the inflation outlook, the council members pointed out that cpi inflation, including inflation net of food and energy prices, would probably rise somewhat in the coming period	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	188
the council members expressed an opinion that given the above mentioned factors which were likely to affect cpi inflation in 2024, core inflation developments were of significant importance for the assessment of domestic inflation processes	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	671
however, it was noted that this was accompanied by measures undertaken by the chinese authorities aimed at mitigating the scale of the slowdown	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	471
some council members assessed that the decline in chinas economic growth could translate through its adverse impact on the outlook for german exports into a slowdown in the polish exports	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	533
yet the majority of council members assessed that no imbalances that might pose a threat to macroeconomic or financial stability were building up in the real estate market	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	113

some council members assessed that lower than expected general government deficit will partly offset rising demand in the private sector and mitigate its effect on inflation

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

265

a view was expressed that given the elevated inflation including inflation net of food and energy prices as well as the recovery in consumer demand and high wage growth, the current level of nbp interest rates, amid the current developments in inflation expectations, was too low to ensure the sustainable return of inflation to the target in the medium term

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

374

members of the council expecting somewhat faster gdp growth in the coming quarters, however, pointed to rising retail sales and industrial production and weakening decline in construction in the recent months, as well as signs of a possible rebound in investment over the subsequent quarters rise in the estimated cost and number of newly started investment

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

769

in poland the economic conditions in the first months of the year were relatively good

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

825

they also pointed out that a lowering of the demand for polish exports, due to the significant deterioration of economic growth in countries which are polands main trading partners, would be conducive to the decline in gdp growth

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,008

715

at the council meeting, it was observed that the recovery in global economic activity was continuing

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

834

in this regard, attention was drawn to a decline in inflation in the euro area, including in the euro areas major economies, significantly below the level consistent with the price stability definition of the european central bank

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

417

amid the weakened global economic conditions, activity growth has also declined in poland

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

730

this was reflected in a monthover-month decline in retail sales observed in march

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

791

the council members observed that considering the above macroeconomic conditions, the major central banks were signalling the maintenance of interest rates at a level close to zero and continued asset purchases in the subsequent quarters

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

881

despite this, the fall in inflation in many economies is gradual, since the rapid growth in nominal wages, the relatively good economic situation in services, as well as the pass through of the earlier sharp increases in production costs on consumer prices and the relatively high corporate profits are supporting further price growth

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

752

some council members assessed, however, that taking into account a possible decline in the potential growth of the polish economy as a result of the financial crisis and other factors, the current rate of economic growth was already relatively high and would not be a factor limiting the inflation rise in poland

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

667

certain council members judged that the rising prices of this commodity reflected an optimistic assessment of the outlook for global demand by investors, supported by the progress of the covid-19 vaccination programmes and the highly expansionary economic policy in many countries

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

880

against this background, a few council members pointed out that even if standards for household lending were eased, this would not translate into any marked rebound in household lending due to declining household credit demand

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

187

the consistently low level of inflation expectations of economic agents were also highlighted

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

535

it was also argued that the growth in prices of market services had already been following an upward trend for a longer period, and its one-off drop in mid-2007 resulted from the way in which price promotions were accounted for in the price index

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

195

in this context, certain council members judged that loose monetary conditions in major advanced economies had contributed to a strong rise in financial asset and real estate prices in previous years

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

356

the council members assessed that incoming data pointed to an improvement in sentiment and a revival in economic activity in the past few months, even though gdp would remain lower in 2020 q3 than the year before

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

27

while analysing the inflationary developments, some members of the council emphasized that decline in january inflation was more pronounced than had been forecast, and in the absence of zloty depreciation, inflation might be expected to decrease further by the end of the year

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

555

furthermore, it was observed that financial analysts forecast inflation to decline to around 2.5 next year

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

995

in april 2021, annual industrial output growth and retail sales growth had risen significantly

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

99

in this context it was pointed out that the current zloty exchange rate was stronger than in the june projection based on the necmod model and thus future inflation might prove lower than it followed from the projection

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

882

in their opinion, the pace of the domestic economic recovery would also be dependent upon further developments of the zloty exchange rate

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

504

other council members, however, pointed out that all measures of core inflation had risen since the previous month and the increase in core inflation net of food and fuel prices was significant as compared to the changes of this indicator over the past year

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

810

those members were also of the opinion that low interest rates weakened the selection of economic agents and consequently inhibited productivity growth

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

452

it was also noted that capacity utilization in the economy had grown in 2013 q1, and that in line with available forecasts gdp growth should not decrease further and it is expected to accelerate gradually over coming quarters

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

602

at the same time, while addressing future decisions, some council members were of the opinion that another interest rate cut in the coming months might be justified should there be no clear signs of rebound in the polish economy, and should the likelihood of inflation persisting below the nbp target in the medium term rise

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

631

in this context, certain council members pointed out that particularly in view of the need for increased public expenditure on the military and on energy transformation the room for increasing the expansiveness of fiscal policy was limited and rather consolidation policies should be expected

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

410

in turn, a marked increase in asset prices amidst persisting moderate global economic growth proves, in the opinion of these council members, that additional liquidity had been used to invest in financial assets

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

321

as a result, they judged that there was no cost pressure in the economy that would result from excessive wage growth

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

28

according to certain council members, there was increased risk of a strong external shock which by weakening the economic growth of polands trading partners and causing a deterioration in investors sentiment towards the assets of emerging markets could lead to a slowdown in polish gdp growth

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

951

the major central banks including the ecb and the fed continue their highly accommodative monetary policy and emphasise in their communications the considerable uncertainty about the prospects for the economy and the temporary nature of the factors boosting inflation in 2021

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

630

the council discussed the indicated period of the probable maintenance of the nbp interest rates at an unchanged level

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,014

898

at the same time, according to preliminary estimates, core inflation excluding food and energy prices declined to its lowest level for over a year

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

456

other members of the council assessed that decline in gdp growth in the united states was in line with the expectations of lower potential output growth in major developed economies after the financial crisis

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

447

it was noted that economic growth would still be driven by consumption demand growth, supported by the sustained rise in household disposable income due to favourable labour market conditions combined with the increase in the minimum wage in 2020, as well as the disbursement of social benefits and the tax cuts

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

499

some council members judged that interest rates in this region might remain low for longer than currently signalled by the ecb, should the expected economic slowdown in the euro area prove stronger than indicated by the current forecasts and the rise in inflation be driven mainly by increasing energy prices, with continuously moderate core inflation

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

436

consumer expenditures are supported by improving labour market conditions, reflected particularly in rising employment and a fall in the unemployment rate, which had reached the lowest level since 2008

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

772

they underlined that price growth might be boosted by further growth in services prices, including prices of administered services

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

644

while analysing inflationary developments in poland, it was pointed out that the annual consumer price growth had decreased in december

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

213

it was emphasised that the european central bank ecb was keeping the deposit rate below zero while conducting asset purchases and signalling the maintenance of loose monetary policy in the coming quarters

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

220

the majority of the council members judged that the marked decline in inflation and the lowering of inflation expectations were contributing to an increase in the restrictiveness of monetary policy

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

11

some council members did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in the case of an economic slowdown in poland, deepening deflation or signs that behaviour of economic agents was adversely affected by negative price growth

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

806

as a result, economic growth in poland might prove to be stronger than previously forecasted

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

249

in the first months of 2024, the annual cpi growth is likely to fall significantly, while the decline in core inflation will be slower

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

482

it was pointed out that the process of lowering inflation in the major economies was slow as core inflation remained elevated, particularly due to the persistence of high service price growth amid fast wage growth

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

389

in the opinion of these council members, interest rate decisions should take into account in particular the impact of negative real interest rates on lending, asset prices and savings in the polish economy, as well as growth in the unit variable costs

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

746

growth in external sales of goods, on the other hand, had probably halted

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,020

121

in central and eastern europe, price growth was also decreasing, although it remained higher than in the euro area

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

952

at the meeting, the monetary policy council discussed primarily the outlook for economic growth and inflation abroad and in poland, the situation in the labour and credit markets and zloty exchange rate developments

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,010

231

this was indicated by moderate industrial output growth, slower retail sales growth and somewhat weaker although still upbeat household sentiment

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

129

the main topics raised at the meeting were the turbulences in international financial markets and their impact on the outlook for economic growth, the labour market situation in poland and the public finance situation

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

36

a few council members argued, however, that despite the economic recovery no significant increase in employment should be expected as during the slowdown enterprises strove to limit layoffs

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,013

76

these council members underlined, in particular, that private consumption would most probably remain to be a factor supporting economic growth in the nearest quarters; yet amidst temporarily slow real income growth, consumption would be financed, to a greater degree, by decrease in savings rate

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

41

moreover, some members of the council indicated that the slowdown in economic growth in the united states would affect the economic activity in the euro area, and consequently in poland, after a certain time lag

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

479

however, other council members were of the opinion that the increasing scale of child benefit payments along with the rising birth rate, the improvement in the financial situation of some consumers due to the lowering of the statutory retirement age, and in 2019 also the possible increase in social benefits and wages in the budget sector, could boost gdp growth

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

387

it was underlined that indicators of economic conditions in the manufacturing sector were also pessimistic

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

96

the council decided to keep the nbp interest rates unchanged the reference rate at 1.50, the lombard rate at 2.50, the deposit rate at 0.50, the rediscount rate at 1.75

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

463

it was emphasized that all the available inflation forecasts anticipate its decline within one year

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

360

the continued uncertainty about the global outlook, commodity prices and price growth in the environment of the polish economy were emphasised

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

609

available data also signal a recovery in investment, although as emphasised at the meeting mainly in public investment

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

618

however, other council members noted that nominal rates were at record lows, and real rates would decline along with forecasted rise in price growth

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,015

871

another important argument for raising the interest rates were the recent decisions leading to a decrease in revenues and an increase in expenditures of the public finance sector, which may lead to a deterioration of the public finance balance and create additional inflationary pressure in the medium term

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

971

some council members also pointed to rising business climate indicators, faster than a year ago credit growth and a further improvement in labour market conditions

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

82

however, other council members were of the opinion that wage rises for successive groups of public sector workers could be a risk factor for faster wage growth and potentially also for inflation

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

3

on the one hand, reduction of budget deficits, although likely to support economic growth in the longer run, could lead to another decline in activity in those economies in the short run

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

552

thus, the council judged that the current level of interest rates was conducive to keeping the polish economy on a sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

355

the majority of the council members judged that in light of available information stabilisation of the nbp interest rates was likely also in the following quarters

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

19

the council members also underlined that the scale and timing of the recovery would depend, above all, on the epidemic situation and the related restrictions

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

551

the council members underlined a considerable contribution from change in inventories to gdp growth in 2018 q1

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

557

it was also suggested that a better assessment of the risk of inflation overshooting the inflation target in the monetary policy transmission horizon would require macroeconomic data that were to be released before the next meeting

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,007

468

in the opinion of certain council members, in particular the lowering of the retirement age could adversely affect the labour supply

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

474

yet, it was stressed that gdp growth, having picked up considerably in 2017, might weaken slightly in the coming years and should not exceed potential output growth to a large extent

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

343

moreover, it was indicated that nominal wage growth was lower than inflation

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

228

it was emphasised that the council flexibly determined the desirable time necessary to bring inflation back to the target, as bringing inflation rapidly back to the target might entail significant costs to macroeconomic and financial stability

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

332

these meeting participants also assessed that the acceleration of interest rate increases might not reduce inflation expectations of households, which are highly adaptive in nature

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

2

at the same time, it was pointed out that annual construction and assembly production growth was negative in january 2024

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

166

the council set the nbp interest rates as follows the reference rate at 0.50, the lombard rate at 1.00, the deposit rate at 0.00, the rediscount rate at 0.55, and the discount rate at 0.60

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

641

those council members argued that particularly in the case of energy prices affected by global commodity prices, the decline might be a temporary phenomenon

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

484

at the meeting it was noted that the heightened geopolitical tensions in the middle east were a risk factor for the global economy

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

651

referring to the interest rates, the council decided that they should remain unchanged at the current meeting

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,016

782

yet, in the assessment of the council, this most probably was due to temporary factors

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,018

854

according to the lfs data, the number of working persons in the economy in 2022 q4 remained close to the level recorded a year before, while it declined in the private sector

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

902

it was emphasised that further monetary policy easing by the ecb in the recent period was the result of extending and increasing the scale of asset purchases

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

1

it was indicated that in recent years the links between economic conditions, wage growth and inflation had weakened in many countries

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

923

while analysing external conditions for economic activity in poland, council members pointed out that the global activity remained low

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

958

when discussing the outlook for economic growth in the context of the july projection, it was indicated that gdp growth would be relatively stable at close to 3.5 over the whole projection horizon

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

809

in the discussion about the consequences of zloty appreciation it was pointed out that it contributed to curbing inflation by decreasing imported inflation, including by easing the impact of oil price growth in the world markets on domestic prices

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

180

certain council members additionally drew attention to notable acceleration in production of minerals used in construction in late 2016

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

874

in this context, attention was drawn to the considerable inflow of refugees to poland, which would generate additional demand for consumer goods and services and would require higher investments related to the migrants, including investment in expanding the health care system, education and increasing the availability of housing

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

346

at the same time, a deterioration in residential real estate market conditions was not excluded given higher mortgage interest rates

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

856

the council decided to raise the interest rates to the following levels the reference rate to 3.75, the lombard rate to 5.25, the deposit rate to 2.25 and the rediscount rate to 4.00

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

765

however, in their opinion, in view of the persistently negative output gap, inflation was likely to remain at very low levels for several quarters ahead

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

975

they claimed that at present it was difficult to assess the impact of the governments planned changes in public expenditure and revenue on economic activity and inflation in poland

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

643

while discussing current inflation developments, it was emphasized that price growth continued on a downward trend

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

800

while discussing the inflation outlook, the council members pointed out that cpi inflation, including inflation net of food and energy prices, would probably rise somewhat in the coming period

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

188

the council members expressed an opinion that given the above mentioned factors which were likely to affect cpi inflation in 2024, core inflation developments were of significant importance for the assessment of domestic inflation processes

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

671

however, it was noted that this was accompanied by measures undertaken by the chinese authorities aimed at mitigating the scale of the slowdown

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

471

some council members assessed that the decline in chinas economic growth could translate through its adverse impact on the outlook for german exports into a slowdown in the polish exports

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

533

yet the majority of council members assessed that no imbalances that might pose a threat to macroeconomic or financial stability were building up in the real estate market

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

113