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at the same time, the council assessed that recently uncertainty as to the scale and duration of the economic slowdown abroad and its impact on domestic economic activity had increased | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 157 |
it was emphasised that in the last three months inflation had fallen by over 5 percentage points | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 269 |
it was judged that the probable fall in heating fuel prices, in particularly of coal, may also have been conducive to curbing inflation | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 336 |
at the same time, it was pointed out that according to current forecasts, the annual price growth would increase in the coming months, however due to the lower oil prices than in 2018 q3 and the freeze on electricity prices the scale of this increase would be significantly smaller than that expected in the november projection | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 586 |
at the same time it was indicated that a decline in food and energy price growth had significantly contributed to a decrease in inflation over recent months | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 908 |
the council members stipulated flexible supply of shale oil in the united states and some producers striving to retain their market shares as the likely factors behind the stabilisation of oil prices | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 14 |
a motion to raise the key nbp interest rates by 25 basis points was put forward | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 582 |
other council members also pointed out that in previous months following the earlier strong growth interest rates on certain types of loans had declined somewhat | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 293 |
the majority of the council members expressed the opinion that despite the progress of the vaccination process, subsequent waves of the pandemic in poland could not be ruled out | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 34 |
a few council members were of the opinion that, given an acceleration in labour productivity growth as shown in the projection, wage growth should not run close to historical lows | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 706 |
while discussing economic situation in poland, council members pointed out that economic growth had slowed down in recent months | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 326 |
according to these council members, apart from regulatory factors, price growth would be also boosted by base effects related to the fading impact of the fall in oil prices in 2020 | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 886 |
in february cpi inflation had declined to 2.8, and in march, according to the statistics poland flash estimate, it had fallen to 1.9 therefore, within thirteen months since reaching its peak, inflation had fallen by over 16 p.p | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 682 |
in this context, a few council members pointed out that given the low growth in the external environment of the polish economy and the persisting risk of deterioration in economic conditions abroad, the strength of further economic recovery in poland was uncertain | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 931 |
it was emphasised that the exchange rate appreciation tightened polands monetary conditions and was conducive to easing the inflationary pressure, as the prices of imported goods denominated in zloty were falling | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 181 |
while analyzing the risk that heightened inflation persists those members of the council pointed out that this risk was enhanced by the gradually increasing gdp growth which, in their opinion, was likely to exceed potential output growth in the subsequent quarters | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 80 |
at the meeting a motion was submitted to lower nbp interest rates by 0.50 percentage points | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 497 |
it was underlined that the sharp decline in global commodity prices, including oil prices, would be an additional significant factor causing a decline in price growth in the coming quarters | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 63 |
it was assessed at this point that global economic activity in the subsequent quarters would be hampered by besides increased uncertainty deteriorating labour market conditions, a decline in global trade and a rise in debt, which, while helping to alleviate the impact of the economic crisis at the moment, might drag on growth in the longer term | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 79 |
it was assessed that although the excessive deficit procedure had officially been initiated the preliminary draft budget act for 2025 did not indicate fiscal policy tightening which would favour a reduction in inflationary pressure | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 406 |
according to those council members, the absence of a revival in lending to the corporate sector and a possible tightening of banks lending policies due to the deterioration of their loan portfolio might be conducive to the reduction of corporate investment, especially of small and medium-sized enterprises | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 786 |
other council members indicated that deterioration in economic activity abroad and, consequently, in the polish economy, might occur, among other things, due to a difficult fiscal situation in the developed countries | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 311 |
according to those members, a slight increase in interest rate should not dampen economic growth | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 986 |
while addressing inflation, some members of the council emphasized that although cpi inflation declined slightly in november 2010 it was still running above the inflation target of 2.5 | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 821 |
at the same time, it was pointed out that in the aftermath of russian aggression against ukraine, some factors will support activity growth in poland | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 33 |
at the same time, it was underlined that in recent months the prices of certain agricultural commodities around the world had also risen significantly | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 296 |
the council confirmed its assessment that, given the available information, the stabilisation of the nominal interest rates helped to keep the polish economy on a sustainable growth path and maintain macroeconomic balance | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 62 |
while analysing inflation developments, the council members pointed to further decline in cpi inflation which went down to 2.4 in december 2012, i.e | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 211 |
a significant drop in inflation in 2010 would be driven in the opinion of those members by the delayed effects of labour market deterioration resulting both in reduced consumption demand of households and slower growth of costs in enterprises | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 339 |
the majority of council members pointed out that due to the possibility of a stronger economic slowdown in china and renewed fall in commodity prices, uncertainty regarding economic activity and price developments in poland had increased and the balance of risks for economic growth and inflation had shifted downwards | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 542 |
yet, some council members assessed that the risk of the second-round effects was limited due to slowing employment growth and heightened unemployment | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 56 |
it was emphasised that a further tightening of the macroprudential policy at the beginning of this year would probably limit mortgage lending growth | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 396 |
at the meeting, a motion to cut the nbp interest rates by 0.25 percentage points was submitted | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 768 |
the most likely outcome, the annual gdp growth would start to slightly accelerate in 2015 q2 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 628 |
in this context, it was pointed out that the wage growth in the enterprise sector had been low and the real wage fund had declined | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 764 |
it was also emphasised that inflation developments, both in the short- and medium-term, were associated with uncertainty, related in particular to the pace of economic recovery in poland and its impact on price developments as well as future course of fiscal and regulatory policies | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 545 |
those council members emphasized that strong dependence of the polish economy on the economic developments in germany might imply that an expected slight deceleration of gdp growth in germany could be followed by a reduction of gdp growth in poland | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 340 |
the persisting strong cost pressure also contributed to a slight rise in the annual growth of food prices | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 742 |
at the same time, it was noted, that uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery in poland and its impact on inflationary pressures persisted | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 30 |
according to these members of the council, the growing activity in the global economy would support acceleration of gdp growth in poland and maintaining high growth of commodity prices in the world markets in the years to come translating into a rise in domestic inflationary pressures | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 657 |
at the same time, the ecb had extended the indicated period of keeping interest rates unchanged, while signalling the possibility of further monetary policy easing | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 241 |
council members also pointed out that weak growth of foreign demand, notwithstanding its slight acceleration, remained a factor curbing gdp growth in poland in the first quarter | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 324 |
during the discussion it was pointed out that in september 2024, the european central bank had cut interest rates once again | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 725 |
they also pointed out the near-zero growth in producer prices, and emphasised that slower price growth was accompanied by slightly lower inflation expectations, both among households and enterprises | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 449 |
certain council members underlined in addition that the negative impact of the fall in commodity prices should be fading out, which would be conducive to higher cpi inflation later in the projection horizon | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 407 |
as regards the conditions in the credit market, some council members assessed that lending growth at the current rate does not, as for now, fuel inflationary pressures in the economy | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 53 |
however, some council members underlined that in the recent period growth forecasts for the euro area had been lowered, which should it continue could indicate the risk of a stronger slowdown in polands main trading partner | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 200 |
in the opinion of the council members, the decline in inflation would be driven by both decreases in energy prices as of january 2013, negative output gap and lack of wage pressure in the economy | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 97 |
however, other council members emphasised that the level of the real interest rates was not the main factor determining the savings rate and asset prices in the polish economy | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 150 |
they also argued that, due to the difficult revenue situation of the general government sector, the coming period may bring further increases of administered prices, which would postpone the decline in inflation | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 194 |
these members argued that the interest rate increases are justified by a faster acceleration in price growth than assumed in the july projection expected by them and a high risk of severe external shocks | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 747 |
these council members judged that the expected inflation growth would be driven by an intensification of domestic inflationary pressure as evidenced by the forecast growth in both core inflation and the value added deflator | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 310 |
in the opinion of these council members, the currently observed strong fall in ppi inflation, the reduction in value of loans to the non-financial sector and the declining inflation expectations of consumers and enterprises would also contribute to a fall in cpi inflation | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 7 |
some discussants emphasised that domestic inflation is to an increasing extent determined by global factors | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 805 |
meanwhile, the scale of the rise in oil prices was limited by both lower current demand and the deteriorating outlook for demand for oil related to weaker global economic conditions and tensions between the united states and china | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 390 |
in this context, some members of the council pointed out that lowering the nbp interest rates currently to excessively low levels might later on require a relatively faster and stronger tightening of the monetary policy in order to stabilize inflation at the level of the inflation target | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 245 |
certain council members judged that particularly in view of the lower market expectations regarding interest rate developments in the major economies and the increase in oil prices in the past days this might lower the anti-inflationary impact of the decline in inflationary pressure abroad on prices in poland | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 18 |
while discussing the nbp interest rates, the majority of the council members assessed, as at previous meetings, that at the current meeting the nbp interest rates should continue to be lowered, which should support economic activity and consequently reduce the risk of inflation remaining below the target in the medium term | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 341 |
certain council members judged that inflation might remain heightened in 2022 | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 286 |
it was indicated that the application of uniform reserve requirement ratios for all funds raised for at least 2 years would bring the polish reserve requirement system closer to the solutions applied by the eurosystem | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 461 |
moreover, some council members pointed out that the announced change in vat rates would be mitigating household consumption growth in 2011 | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 656 |
this was suggested by the weaker wage growth and a further slight decrease in employment in month-on-month terms in the corporate sector as well as the lower number of job offers in the recent period | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 363 |
referring to the external conditions for inflationary processes, few members of the council emphasised that in the medium term a significant curbing of inflation in poland would be made difficult by the persistently elevated inflation abroad and continuously high commodity prices in the global markets, related - in their opinion to strongly expansionary monetary policy pursued by major central banks, including considerable excess liquidity in the global financial markets | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 940 |
in the opinion of other members of the council, considerable economic slowdown abroad, signs of economic slowdown in poland, the already implemented interest rate increases and the expected decline in wage pressure would constitute factors bringing inflation down to the target in the medium term | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 649 |
some council members also assessed that stabilisation of the share of non-residents investment in the domestic treasury bill markets in october 2010 might be a sign of certain curbing of the inflow of capital to this market, which reduced the probability of strong appreciation of the zloty exchange rate | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 15 |
in the assessment of those council members, the extent of a possible decline in economic growth in poland would be significantly smaller than in the united states or the euro-area | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 342 |
a few of these members additionally indicated that interest rate cuts may weaken the zloty exchange rate, and thus negatively affect inflation, as well as prompt households to deposit savings outside the banking system | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 798 |
it was observed that the main factor behind softer activity growth was the deterioration in economic conditions abroad | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 873 |
yet, few council members assessed that the observed slowdown may be only temporary and its scale will depend, to a large extent, on the situation in the external environment, which according to most forecasts will improve in 2013 | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 123 |
while discussing the outlook for bank lending, some members of the council assessed that banks credit policy towards enterprises continued to be restrictive | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 906 |
in turn, certain council members judged that the economic recovery might proceed faster than assumed in the projection due to the positive impact on gdp of large infrastructure projects | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 722 |
at the council meeting, it was observed that the activity in global economy continued to recover, yet the economic conditions were under a negative impact of supply-side constraints in some markets, high commodity prices and re-escalation of the pandemic in certain countries | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 110 |
it was pointed out that a factor supporting consumer demand growth would be the further increase in household disposable income resulting from both growing employment and nominal wages and the launch of the family 500 programme | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 31 |
some council members also pointed to the reduced scale of decline in the prices of goods strongly affected by globalisation recorded in the recent months, which was partially connected with the earlier zloty exchange rate depreciation | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 664 |
during the discussion, the council pointed out that weakening of external economic activity, in particular in germany, translated into a pronounced deceleration in polish exports growth | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 720 |
some council members were of the opinion that price growth in the years to come might be higher than currently forecast | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 521 |
it was emphasised that as a result, core inflation was also on the rise | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 175 |
similar trends may be observed in the monthly data on employment in the enterprise sector and unemployment as registered by the labour offices | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 392 |
it was also pointed out that poland is among the eu countries whose business cycles are most closely correlated with the business cycle in the euro area which means that the slowdown in the euro area would probably have a negative impact on economic growth in poland | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 817 |
therefore, gdp growth would probably be higher in 2025 than in 2024 whereas, according to the projection, in the following year it may slow down slightly | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 953 |
it was pointed out, however, that the polish currency had depreciated less than many emerging market currencies | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 328 |
a motion was also submitted to lower the basic nbp interest rates by 0.25 percentage point | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 126 |
in effect, it was judged that the annual gdp growth in 2022 q4 slowed down markedly for another consecutive quarter | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 4 |
at its meeting, the monetary policy council discussed the current and future monetary policy decisions against the background of external and domestic macroeconomic developments, including inflationary processes and the nbps march projection of inflation and gdp | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 889 |
some council members assessed that the economic growth could stay close to previous quarters | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 989 |
gdp growth had accelerated to 2.0 in 2024 q1 | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 726 |
they pointed out that in january 2008 zloty exchange rate continued to be stronger than accounted for in the october inflation projection | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 414 |
while analysing the external conditions of macroeconomic developments in the polish economy, members of the council pointed to the continued uncertainty about the situation in the euro area | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 965 |
other members of the council pointed out that, despite the rapid growth of wages in enterprises, july brought a significant drop in the growth of unit labour costs in industry and so the deterioration in the relation between wages and productivity was not perpetuated in this sector | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 661 |
a further fall in construction output was also observed | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 9 |
the opinion was expressed that despite that, higher wage growth in the entire economy could not be ruled out, particularly if wage growth in the public sector picked up | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 197 |
however, the council members differed in their assessment of the magnitude of the impact this factor may have on inflationary pressure | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 435 |
while addressing the situation in the labour market, it was pointed out that the wage and employment growth in the enterprise sector in march was still high, which was conducive to increasing the demand pressure | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 553 |
some members of the council emphasised that in the light of available forecasts inflation in the coming months would continue to decline, driven mostly by statistical base effects connected with a strong rise of administered prices in 2009, the appreciation of the zloty observed so far, moderate growth of unit labour costs and the currently low demand pressure | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 887 |
certain council members, on the other hand, assessed that inflation might prove higher than forecast, due to, among other things, the realisation of pent-up demand after the restrictions had been lifted | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 160 |
the majority of council members underlined that the annual cpi inflation rate continued to be boosted by rapid growth in fuel prices due to significantly higher global oil prices than a year earlier the increase in electricity prices, which took place at the beginning of 2021, and the increase in waste disposal charges, and thus by factors which were beyond the control of domestic monetary policy | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 637 |
other discussants pointed out that the turmoil in international financial markets did spread beyond the us subprime loan market, which can be evidenced by problems in the german and british financial markets | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 950 |
at the same time, it was emphasised that except for poland and slovakia all the new member states of the european union which remained outside the euro area failed to comply with this criterion | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 799 |
when discussing the economic situation in poland, attention was drawn to the continuing stable economic growth in last several quarters | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 88 |
turning to inflation developments in poland, it was observed that consumer price growth had increased in recent months | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 487 |
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