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other members of the council emphasised, however, that m3 growth was not low when compared to the growth of nominal gdp | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 549 |
some council members believed, however, that nbp interest rates should remain unchanged | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 476 |
while analysing the current monetary policy, some council members assessed that the current level of interest rates might be adequate to maintain price stability over the medium term, particularly considering the economic slowdown | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 663 |
a view was also expressed that in the hypothetical event of a slump in economic activity accompanied by a marked deterioration in consumer and corporate sentiment, in the longer run it might be justified to consider a decrease in interest rates or the introduction of unconventional monetary policy instruments | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 820 |
the council members drew attention to the fact that the unemployment rate in poland remained at a historically low level | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 736 |
they pointed out that postponing the decision to raise the interest rates may contribute to rising macroeconomic imbalances and inflation | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 867 |
in the united states, a marked acceleration in economic growth and declining unemployment rate partly due to a decrease in the number of economically active persons have prompted the federal reserve to start reducing the scale of quantitative easing | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 32 |
it was judged that low commodity prices were the key factor behind very low price growth worldwide | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 990 |
while discussing the decision on interest rates, the council assessed that the considerable deterioration of the outlook for global economic growth, as well as the increased uncertainty as to the future economic activity in poland coupled with elevated current and expected inflation, justified keeping the nbps interest rates unchanged at the current meeting | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 676 |
a few council members also underlined that interest rate cuts may contribute to the fall in deposits in the banking sector | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 234 |
if it is to be achieved by limiting expenditure, it may contribute to increasing the propensity of enterprises to invest by reducing concerns about a future rise in the tax burden and by easing the wage pressure | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 833 |
it was emphasised that the relatively low gdp growth may be the result of a drop in real disposable income of households connected with a rise in unemployment and a decline in real wages as well as more difficult access to credit | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 892 |
with regard to inflationary processes at home, it was pointed out that the annual consumer price growth fell yet again in october and was running below the forecasts | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 472 |
in this context, it was pointed out that in poland the measures which could lower the inflationary pressure and consequently reduce the costs of bringing inflation down to the target were structural reforms, including the reform of public finances | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 201 |
some council members assessed however, that inflation returning to the target is subject to risk posed by global commodity prices, whose further growth may be supported by strongly expansionary monetary policy conducted by major central banks | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 745 |
since interest rate rises themselves would not eliminate the credit boom risk they should be complemented with appropriate supervisory measures | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 678 |
however, few council members were of the opinion that the nbp interest rates should be kept unchanged due to persistently elevated current inflation and remaining uncertainty about global energy commodity prices | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 959 |
it was pointed out that rising inflation expectations might add to wage pressure | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 710 |
in the opinion of those council members, growth in the prices of energy commodities in the global markets and the effects of implementing the eu climate and energy package continue to be risk factors for a marked decrease in inflation | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 159 |
it was assessed that economic growth was still driven primarily by increasing consumer demand, supported by rising employment and wages, good consumer sentiment and disbursement of child and social benefits | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 368 |
with regard to the decision on the nbp interest rates, the majority of council members found that given a likely persistence of factors fuelling inflation that are beyond the direct influence of domestic monetary policy the limited scale of expected economic slowdown might not decrease inflationary pressure to a degree sufficient for inflation returning to the target in the medium term | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 185 |
other members of the council emphasized, however, that in view of the fast deteriorating outlook for domestic economic growth, it was necessary to lower, as soon as possible, the interest rates to the level supporting the economic activity in poland | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 728 |
it was pointed out at the meeting that in may 2022 inflation in poland had risen to 13.9 yy | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 735 |
gdp growth was supported by robust consumer demand, benefiting from a favourable situation in the labour market, which was reflected in a decline in unemployment and a substantial rise in average wages | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 492 |
in turn, in the opinion of certain council members, heightened inflation might increase wage demands of various occupational groups, translating into growing wage pressures in the coming quarters | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 505 |
during the meeting, the council pointed out that activity growth in the world economy remained relatively weak, although signals concerning a possible trade agreement between the united states and china had translated into some improvement of the sentiment in the global economy at the end of 2019 | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 168 |
at the same time, it was assessed that subsequent quarters would see a downward trend in gdp growth which was suggested by macroeconomic data for april 2009 and economic indicators remaining at a low level despite a certain improvement in recent period | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 38 |
in addition, it was highlighted that the recent weaker data releases on the economic activity in the united states resulted in a setback in market expectations for the fed funds rate increase | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 101 |
as a result, the current interest rate level help to keep the polish economy on a sustainable growth path and maintain macroeconomic stability | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 233 |
at the same time, it was pointed out that although subsequent quarters might bring an economic slowdown, as suggested by most forecasts, including the nbps november projection, economic growth in the coming quarters might be faster than currently forecast owing to polish companies considerable resilience to the crisis abroad | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 266 |
a few council members argued that low credit to gdp ratio in poland as compared to other eu member states suggested that the role of lending in supporting consumer demand was limited | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 470 |
if the turmoil recedes, this segment of the credit market may show a rapid expansion | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 688 |
at the meeting, it was pointed out that according to statistics poland preliminary data, annual cpi inflation had declined to 14.7 in april from 16.1 in march and 18.4 in february, which was primarily due to the slower annual food price growth | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 707 |
while discussing developments in polands real economy, it was assessed that in 2016 q4 gdp growth was probably still subdued | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 278 |
at the same time, some council members listed the following factors likely to pose risk for sustainable recovery in the american economy weakening of upward trends in the real estate market, further curbing of bank lending to the private sector and persistently high budget deficit | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 570 |
they highlighted the relatively fast, in their opinion, rise in consumer loans and the resulting high level of household debt compared to other european countries | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 670 |
those members of the council claimed that the nbp interest rate increase would be justified in order to reduce the risk of the emergence of such pressure | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 675 |
when discussing the current developments in poland and their outlook, it was highlighted that a decline in industrial output and retail sales as well as a deeper decrease in construction and assembly pointed to more pronounced economic slowdown than previously anticipated | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 144 |
in this context, the council members expressed the opinion that developments in core inflation were of significant importance for the assessment of domestic inflation processes | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 918 |
an opinion was also expressed that the reserve requirement system should not be modified until the decision not to calculate the reserve requirements on funds raised from domestic entities for at least a two-year period came into effect | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 141 |
some council members stressed that the persistence of uncertainty regarding the domestic and external developments also spoke in favour of interest rate stability | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 263 |
the majority of the council members observed that the decline in the annual price growth in the subsequent months of 2023 would be supported by the base effect, as well as weaker upward pressure on prices driven by the fading of the previous supply shocks and the weakening in economic conditions, which, along with the decline in real wages, would constrain enterprises capacity to pass the rising costs on to product prices | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 128 |
the recent slight decline in inflation expectations of households and enterprises was also highlighted | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 607 |
it was also emphasised that without a clearly defined path of harmonising the rates of indirect taxes with the eu requirements and without a detailed liberalisation programme of the energy market, the assessment of future price growth path, particularly as regards administered prices, is problematic | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 108 |
while analyzing the situation in the euro area, some council members pointed out that the situation in that economy is a bit better than before | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 105 |
certain council members highlighted the fact that the july projection signalled also higher food price growth in the subsequent quarters stemming from the lagged effects of the vat rate increase and the higher agricultural commodity prices | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 35 |
it was emphasised that the projection assumed that inflation would return to the nbp inflation target, i.e | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 839 |
while analysing commodity price developments, it was pointed out that oil prices were higher than in previous quarters, yet signs of their stabilisation had appeared in recent weeks | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 537 |
it was further pointed out that the currencies of polands other trading partners had depreciated much more than the zloty | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 495 |
while analysing current developments in the labour market, it was pointed out that the unemployment rate remained low and the annual growth of employment in the enterprise sector was still relatively high, although the level of employment in this sector had declined for the second consecutive month | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 979 |
some of the council members pointed to the fact that monetary policy tightening was conducted in economies characterised by heightened inflation and substantial external imbalances | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 271 |
it was indicated that in 2022 inflation would be running at a substantially elevated level, which in addition to the factors that had already boosted price growth would result from the economic fallout of russian military aggression against ukraine | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 8 |
during the meeting, the council noted that incoming data pointed to weaker economic conditions in some of the largest economies, and assessed that uncertainty about the outlook for global activity in the coming quarters had increased | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 737 |
in this context, these members emphasised particularly the adverse impact of the steep rise in public expenditure following the financial crisis on the private sectors propensity to invest and to consume | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 523 |
other council members argued that inflation expectations in poland are adaptive in nature, and so they are greatly dependent on past inflation, which should be taken into consideration while interpreting their changes | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 968 |
in line with the central path of the november projection under the assumption of unchanged interest rates inflation would return to the nbp inflation target in 2025 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 279 |
in reference to the economic activity outlook, the council members assessed that russian military aggression against ukraine would weaken economic growth in poland, although the scale of this effect was highly uncertain | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 853 |
these council members expressed the opinion that further adjustment of interest rates while reducing the cost of servicing the public debt only temporarily could lead to increased instability of public finance in the future | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 899 |
those members emphasised that an overly expansive fiscal policy in the conditions of increasing inflationary pressure could lead to a policy-mix which is unfavourable from the point of view of long-term economic growth | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 282 |
it was assessed that the deceleration of recessionary tendencies in poland may be indicated by the slower decline of industrial output, an improvement in some business confidence indicators and the fact that part of the data for june proved better than expected | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 758 |
at the same time, those members emphasised that in case these problems aggravated, an outflow of foreign capital could occur that would be conducive to a weakening of the zloty | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 375 |
it was emphasised that households real disposable income had risen considerably in 2017, while income inequalities had narrowed down | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 937 |
in countries being the most important markets for polish exports | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 92 |
at the meeting a motion to symmetrically narrow the corridor between the nbp deposit rate and the nbp lombard rate by a total of 50 basis points was put forward | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 371 |
in the present situation they might prove to be relatively permanent and act asymmetrically, i.e | irrelevant | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 190 |
the council members drew attention to the results of business climate surveys, which suggested an easing of cost pressures as a result of mitigated supply chains disruptions and a decline in international transport costs | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 546 |
on the other hand, some council members indicated that the recently observed euro depreciation, increasing the price competitiveness of euro area exports could favourably affect the economic growth in this region | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 804 |
at the same time, council members indicated that considering the persisting tensions in international financial markets the weakening of the zloty exchange rate may be an important risk factor for the fall of cpi inflation to the inflation target | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 325 |
in addition, they pointed out that corporate lending growth remained slow, which in the opinion of certain council members might result from companies financing operations from sources other than bank credit | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 568 |
during the meeting, the council stated that global economic growth continued at relatively slow pace | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 404 |
it was judged, that according to the current forecasts, the annual price growth might decline below 3 in march 2024, i.e | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 352 |
other council members argued that gdp in poland had been positively affected by stimulation packages introduced in other countries that are currently expiring and they assessed that economic growth would remain moderate | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 866 |
when analysing changes in energy commodity prices, it was noted that oil prices persisted at levels markedly higher than the year before, having fluctuated significantly in the recent period | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 208 |
certain council members also argued that price growth might be boosted by constraints on the supply of commodities and raw materials amid a rise in demand for semi-products during the economic recovery | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 679 |
it was observed that amid weaker economic conditions and the forecast decline in inflation, an increasing number of central banks were putting monetary policy tightening on hold | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 145 |
it was observed that the rise in global infections had contributed to a slump in confidence in international financial markets, which was reflected, among others, in a weakening of emerging market currencies | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 567 |
other members of the council, however, argued that, due to a large import intensity of export production, the zloty exchange rate appreciation did not significantly reduce the profits of exporters, which may be confirmed, among others, by the data on the financial results of enterprises in 2007 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 793 |
the council members judged that the situation in the labour market remained favourable | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 6 |
the council decided to lower the nbp basic interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to the following levels reference rate to 3.00, lombard rate to 4.50, deposit rate 1.50, rediscount rate to 3.25 | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 329 |
it was underlined that effective measures in this area were key for the ability of economies to restore activity quickly after the resolution of the current disruptions | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 857 |
moreover, those members pointed to a deteriorating growth outlook in the european economy, particularly in germany which so far had reported relatively high economic growth | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 653 |
while analysing inflation expectations, it was remarked that the structure of responses to questions in the surveys of both companies and households had not changed markedly of late | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 612 |
some council members also judged that inflation next year might be elevated by the rise in some administered prices, including those in public transport, as well as price rises of goods with a high share of electricity in their production costs | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 104 |
certain council members expressed concerns that rising risk in the environment of the polish economy might prove a drag for economic growth in the coming quarters | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 21 |
these members also highlighted that several external institutions had revised their forecasts for economic growth in poland downwards and that the uncertainty related to global economic conditions continued | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 517 |
in the context of price developments in the external environment of the polish economy, attention was drawn to the rise in global oil prices in recent months | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 514 |
some council members emphasised that several central banks eased monetary policy despite high inflation being observed in those countries | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 69 |
it was stressed that gdp growth was still driven by rising consumption, fuelled by increasing employment and wages, disbursement of benefits and very strong consumer sentiment | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 165 |
at the same time, it was emphasised that, due to the forecast temporary nature of the current rise in inflation, the still subdued economic activity compared to the pre-pandemic trends and uncertainty about the future economic situation, the major central banks were keeping interest rates low, continuing asset purchases, and signalling the maintenance of loose monetary policy in the future | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 301 |
while discussing the level of interest rates in the polish economy some council members indicated that the risk of inflation running above the nbp inflation target in the medium term, which increases along with the gradual acceleration of economic growth, justified starting the cycle of gradual tightening of the monetary policy at the current meeting | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 648 |
certain council members highlighted that if wage growth did not pick up, the return of inflation to the target could lengthen | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 66 |
it was emphasized that those developments were beyond the control of domestic monetary policy and that a rise in inflation driven by accelerating growth of food and fuel prices was also observed in many other countries | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 680 |
taking this into account, the council members underlined that it was necessary to continue to analyse the business conditions of enterprises and consumer behaviour for possible adverse effects of the negative price growth | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 900 |
it was emphasised that the sources of higher inflation would thus include supply shocks, which at the same time would adversely affect the profitability of companies and the situation of households | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 450 |
some council members were of the opinion that measures undertaken by major central banks should support revival of economic activity in polands external environment, in particular, in the euro area, where improvement in consumer and investor confidence about the prospects for overcoming the crisis may be expected | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 68 |
it was also emphasised that in the united states, the gdp data for 2019 q3 corroborated the persistently robust economic conditions as compared to other advanced economies, yet annual gdp growth was gradually decreasing | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 700 |
some members of the council indicated that the growth rate of consumer prices in the first few months of 2009 exceeded the average from the last eight years, which, by means of a base effect, might be conducive to a decline in the year-on-year inflation rate at the beginning of 2010 | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 483 |
during the discussion, attention was drawn to the gradually increasing annual growth in the value of bank loans, both to households and enterprises | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 729 |
a majority of the council members expected gdp growth to turn out slightly higher than in the july projection | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 734 |
it was pointed out that in the light of the draft amendment of the budget act for the year 2009 passed by the lower chamber of the parliament the drop in tax revenue in 2009 would be significantly deeper than the scale of the assumed increase in the central budget deficit | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 58 |
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