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at the same time, some council members assessed that higher wage growth, amid the potential weakening of external demand, may have a stabilising effect on economic conditions and support inflation at levels close to the target | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 134 |
it was pointed out that the federal reserve continued to reduce its balance sheet, while signalling further interest rate increases in the future | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 522 |
it was pointed out that the rise in the annual inflation in february 2008 in relation to january 2008 was primarily driven by a strong growth in regulated prices | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 422 |
council members emphasised that prolonged deflation in poland was mainly related to the factors beyond the reach of domestic monetary policy, among others, low commodity prices and low price growth abroad | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 239 |
the motion to lower the nbp interest rates by 75 basis points was passed, therefore the motions to lower the nbp interest rates by 25 basis points and by 50 basis points were not put to voting | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 996 |
it was also pointed out that the main factor behind increase in activity had been external demand growth, while domestic demand growth had stayed limited | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 146 |
they emphasised the improvement in enterprises expectations about their economic situation and future demand as well as the fact that, although economic recovery had not translated yet into a rise in corporate investment activity, a higher than in the previous quarters percentage of firms surveyed by the nbp continued the already started investment projects | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 218 |
with regard to the economic situation in the external environment of the polish economy, it was noted that in china gdp growth had also decelerated in 2019 q2, hitting the lowest point since 1992 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 290 |
it was pointed out that inflation would be raised by strong increases in the prices of agricultural commodities in the world observed in recent months | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 783 |
at the same time, in the opinion of certain council members, the likelihood of inflation running at a level consistent with the nbp inflation target at the end of the projection horizon was too low | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 473 |
in their opinion, the need to modernise the current energy infrastructure, related i.a | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 315 |
yet, it was emphasised that global inflation remained high | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 815 |
at the same time, in germany polands main trading partner economic growth accelerated | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 909 |
in the opinion of the majority of the council members, the interest rate cuts both at the current and at the previous meetings, will help to ease monetary conditions and support higher economic growth, and consequently, help to bring inflation close to the target in the medium term | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 934 |
certain council members noted that in recent months there were more signs of a deterioration in global economic conditions | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 402 |
in particular, it was noted that in november hicp inflation in the euro area reached 4.9, the highest level in the history of this currency area, and in the united states cpi inflation in november stood at 6.8, the highest level in about 40 years | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 510 |
leading to persistently relatively high inflation | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 732 |
it was observed that the negative impact of the pandemic on economic growth was mitigated by economic policy measures, including monetary easing by nbp | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 26 |
certain council members argued that the room for wage increases in the enterprise sector was limited, given that the rise in employment was accompanied by a relatively small pace of increase in production and hence labour productivity | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 39 |
in this context, some council members judged that the level of employment might be even higher than indicated by official statistics, which do not include a significant number of employees from ukraine | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 86 |
the council members observed that, apart from the factors indicated, in some of the economies rising labour costs were also contributing to the surge in inflation | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 47 |
those members indicated that 2009 was expected to bring a further strong decline in economic activity in the euro area and some forecasts pointed to the risk of gdp fall in this region also in 2010 | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 807 |
on the other hand, some discussants indicated that zloty appreciation might stem from the appreciation of the real equilibrium exchange rate related to the convergence process | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 957 |
the persistence of moderate inflation in the euro area, related to low wage pressure in this economy and the appreciation of the euro, spoke in favour of preserving the strongly accommodative monetary policy of the ecb | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 903 |
it was pointed out that employment in enterprises had fallen slightly again in april, although the number of job offers had increased compared to march | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 526 |
it was also stressed that core inflation was increasing as well, while inflation forecasts for the coming quarters were revised up, which pointed to the risk of longer than previously judged impact of the pandemic shock on inflationary processes, which in europe was additionally exacerbated by strong negative effects of russias supply policy in the gas market | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 933 |
council members pointed out that nbps measures taken so far had contributed to ease financing conditions in poland | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 454 |
this risk, according to members of the council, is also limited by the already implemented substantial tightening of the monetary policy of the nbp | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 606 |
it was also pointed out that this uncertainty was reflected in movements of the prices of polish assets and the zloty | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 941 |
it was highlighted that wage growth remained moderate in spite of improving labour market conditions and ppi growth had been negative for four years | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 298 |
those members assessed that the economic slowdown in emerging economies will have a smaller scale than in the united states and the euro area and that the weakening economic growth in poland would not significantly reduce the labour market tensions | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 702 |
while discussing business conditions in polands external environment, council members pointed out that global activity growth remained moderate and varied considerably across the regions | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 142 |
a slump in consumer loans was also pointed out, yet it was emphasized that this was due to the banks tightening their lending policies in response to worsening credit quality and regulatory changes | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 273 |
during the discussion it was emphasised that the labour market situation remained very good, as reflected in the record low unemployment rate and the continued marked wage rises | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 943 |
it was emphasized that despite the persisting risk of further turmoil in the global economy, the hitherto observed recovery in major developed economies although not very strong seems relatively sustainable | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 223 |
it was emphasised that according to eurostat preliminary data inflation in the euro area rose to around 10 in september, reaching almost 11 in germany, over 17 in the netherlands, and continued to clearly exceed 20 in the baltic states | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 154 |
therefore, the council decided that it would be justified to maintain interest rates at current levels at least until the end of the first half of 2014 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 103 |
similarly, producer price growth proved lower than forecast | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 724 |
the council members expressed the view that the problems of the german economy might largely be of structural nature | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 369 |
with reference to future monetary policy decisions, on the other hand, most members of the council were of the opinion that should the relatively fast domestic growth, elevated inflation and high inflation expectations continue, the increase in nbp interest rates cannot be ruled out | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 502 |
moreover, those members pointed out that withholding the decision to raise interest rates increased the risk of inflation remaining above the inflation target for a longer period which would subsequently require more pronounced curbing of economic growth necessary to bring inflation down to the target | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 44 |
certain council members pointed out that monthly wage growth in the enterprise sector also remained relatively high | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 532 |
while discussing monetary policy, it was pointed out that further interest rate lowering was expected in the united states and the united kingdom and that, as anticipated by financial markets, interest rates in the euro area would most probably also be reduced in 2008 | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 106 |
other council members observed, however, that the increase in inflation at the beginning of 2020 should it occur would be short-lived, and later in 2020 inflation would probably run close to the target | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 558 |
it was emphasised that gdp growth will be supported by the revival in consumer demand | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 259 |
certain council members judged that amid the fading of external shocks boosting price growth, domestic factors started to play a more important role in inflation developments in poland | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 616 |
the council members judged that although some supply-side factors currently fuelling inflation would fade in 2022, the growth in commodity prices observed in recent months, including the prices of energy and agricultural commodities, might continue to boost price growth in the coming quarters | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 114 |
in consequence, the rate of economic growth would fall, diminishing the investment attractiveness of the polish economy and leading to a decrease in the inflow of foreign direct investment | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 795 |
council members judged that in the coming months economic activity could be expected to recover further | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 338 |
during the discussion about interest rates in poland and abroad, some council members pointed to the continuation of expansionary monetary policy by major central banks in developed countries | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 155 |
on the other hand, the majority of economic sentiment indicators rose, which may indicate an improvement in the economic situation in the months to come | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 186 |
rates deflated with expected inflation, remained positive, which combined with the output gap remaining negative, could justify further nbp rate cuts | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 222 |
certain council members were of the opinion that the persistently low core inflation in the environment of higher wage growth than in previous years resulted from the likely slower growth of the median wage, which might have a significant impact on inflation developments | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 162 |
when analysing labour market performance, it was pointed out that employment growth in the corporate sector was still close to 3 at the beginning of 2019, while wage growth in enterprises in january and february 2019 amounted to approx | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 862 |
at the same time, the growth rate of exports and imports declined | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 87 |
discussing economic conditions in poland, the council members judged that, despite external risks, they remained favourable, supported by good labour market conditions, improved financial standing of enterprises, high capacity utilization, stable lending growth, as well as high price competitiveness of the polish economy combined with ongoing economic recovery in polands main trading partners | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 569 |
the scale of wage demands may be additionally enhanced by persistently heightened inflation | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 164 |
the majority of council members assessed that despite the observed economic recovery, demand and cost pressures in the polish economy remained low, which, amidst weakened economic conditions and falling inflation pressure abroad, supported lower domestic inflation | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 90 |
yet, some members of the council judged that the previous interest rate increases along with considerable appreciation of the zloty exchange rate and expected economic slowdown might prove sufficient to bring inflation down to the target in the medium term | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 843 |
higher gdp growth in 2017 would also be supported by the expected increase in investment related to greater eu funds absorption, as indicated by a rise in the number of new financial framework contracts | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 945 |
at the same time, european prices of coal and gas were several times higher than a year ago | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 775 |
the majority of the council members pointed out that in the current global economic conditions, real interest rates were at negative levels in many countries, including in all the economies of central and eastern europe, and that their level in poland was among the highest in the region | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 762 |
they assessed that investment growth could be faster than the central projection path due to more efficient absorption of eu funds than assumed in the projection | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 354 |
at its meeting, the monetary policy council discussed current and future monetary policy decisions against the background of expected growth and inflation trends in poland, which will be strongly affected by both external conditions growth outlook abroad, situation in the financial markets, commodity prices and domestic factors, as well as the exchange rate developments | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,012 | 748 |
in this context, it was noted that corporate lending, including for investments, had rebounded | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 29 |
when referring to the medium-term outlook, it was pointed out that the potential increase of inflation in the second half of 2024 might also influence inflation expectations | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 840 |
the council decided to keep the nbp interest rates unchanged at the following levels reference rate at 4.5, lombard rate at 6.00, deposit rate at 3.00, rediscount rate at 4.75 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 544 |
the meeting also focused on dilemmas connected with the interest rate policy in the longer term | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 287 |
they pointed to flagging external demand as the principal source of weaker economic growth | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 727 |
other members of the council pointed out, however, that import growth outstripping export growth could have been connected with high growth in domestic demand, hence, considering the expected economic slowdown in poland, import growth should be expected to decline | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 703 |
as a result, annual cpi growth is expected to run at the level consistent with the nbp inflation target in the coming months, while core inflation will remain above cpi inflation | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 626 |
annual growth in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose in june 2024, while annual growth in energy prices declined | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 446 |
it was argued that the level of production capacity utilisation had once again increased in 2010 q3, which in combination with the very good financial results of enterprises in the first half of 2010 should support the revival of investment activity | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 207 |
at the same time, it was pointed out that there were signals that the scale of the external shocks which had boosted inflation around the world was gradually decreasing, which besides the gradual easing of global supply chain disruptions was evidenced by a slight fall in oil prices | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 466 |
some council members indicated that the currently observed strongly growing demand in the product market, amid a limited growth in domestic supply, will lead to increased inflation | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 605 |
certain council members judged that the stable economic growth and improving labour market situation would lead to a gradual closure of the output gap and the approach of the unemployment rate to the equilibrium rate nawru, which could lead to an increase in domestic demand pressure | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 75 |
other members of the council emphasized, however, that some information from the labour market pointed to the wage pressure possibly rising in the subsequent quarters | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 16 |
at the same time, it was noted that growth in construction and assembly output in october 2022 had been close to the average for 2022 q3, although some council members judged that the sharp fall in newly granted housing loans would lead to a significant decline in housing construction in the coming period | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 428 |
while addressing the june projections results concerning wages in the economy, some members of the council pointed out that the relatively low wage growth in the subsequent quarters resulted from the assumption of incomplete adjustment of employment to the fall in demand during the economic slowdown the so-called labour hoarding | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 98 |
other council members emphasised, however, that the level of the real interest rates was not the main factor determining the savings rate and asset prices | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 960 |
yet, other council members believed that growth of wages in the coming quarters would be close to that of labour productivity, with wage pressure remaining limited | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 485 |
it would be also conducive to anchoring the inflation expectations at the level of the nbps inflation target | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 538 |
however, certain council members were of the opinion that the negative impact of the downturn abroad on inflation in poland might be limited when accompanied by increased domestic sales | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 572 |
they pointed to the continuing moderate wage growth in enterprises, and argued that the risk of second round effects was reduced by increased level of unemployment, freezing of aggregate wages in the public finance sector in 2011 and limited role of trade unions in wage-setting in the polish economy | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 61 |
discussing inflation developments in poland, it was observed that the annual consumer price growth had increased to 1.6 in april, in line with expectations | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 689 |
while addressing economic developments in poland, it was pointed out that the data released in may, particularly concerning the gdp in 2012 q1 and its composition, confirmed the gradual weakening in the polish economic activity | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 615 |
some council members also emphasized that the weakening of the polish trade with russia and ukraine, recorded already in 2013, had intensified in the first months of 2014 | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 976 |
certain council members also pointed out that the government measures aimed at shielding mortgage borrowers, i.a | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 260 |
yet, it was indicated that investment expenditures remained low | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 948 |
at the same time, as the effects of those shocks waned, price growth would gradually increase | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 518 |
other council members argued that the monthly increases in housing loans to households remained at a relatively high level lower only to that in 2007-2008, while loans to companies had been steadily rising for several months | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 779 |
as a consequence, core inflation also rose, although it runs at moderate level | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 46 |
when analysing inflation developments in poland, it was stressed that annual growth in consumer prices had stabilised at a moderate level following a significant rise at the beginning of 2017 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 527 |
while analysing the outlook for economic growth, the council members judged that gdp growth in 2019 might be slightly higher than expected in the march projection | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 377 |
the council underscored that data incoming in 2023 q3 signalled a further deterioration in economic conditions in the euro area, including in germany | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 5 |
in this context, it was concluded that amidst probable further recovery in economic activity and favourable labour market conditions, inflation might persist at an elevated level longer than hitherto expected | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,021 | 956 |
they pointed out that although the exchange rate appreciation is an effective channel of curbing inflation, excessive currency strengthening poses a risk of too severe an economic slowdown and of a worsening external balance | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 864 |
at the same time, it was underlined that core inflation in the environment of the polish economy, including the euro area, had also increased slightly | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 861 |
it was underlined that core inflation had also risen somewhat in the external environment of the polish economy, including in the euro area | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 48 |
the council decided to lower the nbp basic interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to the following levels reference rate to 2.50, lombard rate to 4.00, deposit rate to 1.00, rediscount rate to 2.75 | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 256 |
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