gtfintechlab/national_bank_of_poland · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 42 583	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
while assessing the outlook for economic growth in poland, it was pointed out that the growth of industrial output and retail sales in march was lower than in the previous two months and significantly below expectations	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,008	511
some members of the council emphasized that regardless of changes in the potential output growth, two factors on the one hand, a decline in the current account deficit considered safe by financial market participants, and, on the other hand, rising deficit in public finance could support a possible increase of the equilibrium interest rate	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	738
therefore they would have only a temporary impact on inflation, while at the same time, they would put a drag on economic activity	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	307
it was noted that these data were lower than the market expectations	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	83
during the meeting it was pointed out that inflation in poland according to the statistics poland flash estimate increased to 9.2 in january 2022	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	488
in addition, it was noted that economic consequences of deflation would depend on its level, sources and duration	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	566
council members expressed the opinion that despite stronger economic growth, inflation in light of the march projection will return to the target only gradually, and will remain below the target at least throughout this year	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	317
faster gdp growth in the coming quarters will be supported by a rebound in investment growth resulting from further rise in the use of eu funds under the new financial framework	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	244
it was pointed out that in the current conditions the central banks of the major economies were keeping interest rates low and purchasing assets	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	713
however, some council members indicated that the survey data from both the statistics poland and the nbp signalled a gradual weakening of demand for labour in the polish economy	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	403
in the euro area, economic growth declined in 2019 q4, amid the ongoing downturn in industry	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	357
while analyzing the situation in the real sphere of the polish economy, some members expressed the opinion that gdp growth in 2015 q2 might have continued close to the previous quarters level	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	674
in their assessment, this could indicate that the growth in cost pressure might have levelled off	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	119
certain council members pointed out that the price growth observed by some households might be higher than cpi inflation calculated for the average household	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	72
while discussing the outlook for inflation in poland, the majority of the council members pointed out that a further decline in price growth was expected	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	264
it was emphasised that high commodity prices, prolonged disruptions in global supply chains and international transport, exacerbated by the effects of the war, remained the main source of rising inflation	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	914
however, attention was also drawn to a deceleration in annual industrial production growth as well as a fall in construction and assembly output in february	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	359
those members pointed at the results of other forecasts conducted at the nbp according to which the forecast inflation, despite downward revision, would be running at an increased level in the coming quarters	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	169
with reference to the situation in the labour market, sustained employment growth and declining unemployment were highlighted	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	560
some council members pointed to a slight improvement in lending growth, supported by low loan costs	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	531
in this context, it was noted that lending, particularly to households, had slowed down very substantially	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	174
the main reasons for that are the fall in crude oil prices in the recent months and a reduction in energy tariffs on sale and distribution of gas and electricity for households effective from the beginning of 2016	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	225
other members, however, assessed that the spending of the public finance sector as a whole had increased significantly in 2007 and their structure had become more rigid	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	575
moreover, some council members argued that the fact that lending to the enterprise sector was markedly lower than a year ago could signal slow growth of this sectors investment	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	243
at the same time, in china and in other emerging economies, where growth has slowed down to a low level considering their past performance, there is persisting uncertainty about future developments in gdp	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	589
in the opinion of those members of the council it could also be expected that the forecast inflation decrease below the target in 2010 may prove short-lived	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	556
while discussing domestic monetary policy, the council members judged that the measures that nbp had taken so far had contributed to an easing of the monetary conditions	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	677
it was also underlined that in recent months the global prices of some agricultural commodities, in particular wheat, had also risen	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	416
in this context it was noted that inflation returning close to the inflation target in 2021 was suggested not only by the central path of the march projection, but also by external forecasts	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	893
however, other members of the council indicated that this rule should rather be used in ex post assessments	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,008	872
these involve growing demand pressure and a raise in local taxes, as well as higher prices of gas and some services related to the general government sector	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	883
the members of the council also discussed labour market developments	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	173
weakening economic activity is also confirmed by the data on industrial production and leading industrial indicators, which in the recent months were significantly lower than a few months ago	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	120
while arguing in favour of accelerating interest rate hikes, some members of the council justified it through uncertainty about the developments of the zloty exchange rate	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	261
in the opinion of the council members, favourable economic conditions will continue in the coming quarters, although gdp growth will probably slow down slightly compared to the second half of 2017	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	304
in the opinion of some council members, the somewhat slower growth of lending to the private sector in august 2011 may also point to the absence of mounting inflationary pressure	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	913
in the recent period, growth of producer prices also came to a halt	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	512
it was emphasised, however, that sentiment in manufacturing had weakened somewhat in february 2017	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	973
they assessed that inflation would be curbed by moderate economic growth	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,010	127
they also pointed out that it was not yet clear when poland would join the erm ii and so the considerations connected with erm ii membership should not be taken into account in current interest rate decisions	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	313
at the same time, given the strength and persistence of the earlier shocks, which remained beyond the impact of domestic monetary policy, the return of inflation to the nbp inflation target would be gradual	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	841
moreover, certain council members argued that the recent depreciation of the zloty could improve price competitiveness of polish exports, leading to higher gdp growth	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	901
some council members were of the opinion that the impact of the slowdown in china on the global economy would be amplified by potentially accompanying deceleration in other asian economies growth	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	349
while discussing inflation developments in poland, it was pointed out that annual consumer price growth had decreased at the beginning of 2018, and that core inflation net of food and energy prices remained low	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	830
few council members noted that interest rate decreases would reduce the public debt servicing costs and therefore support the economic policy of the government	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	156
also retail sales in real terms slowed down, with sales of durable goods falling compared to the previous year	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	723
attention was also drawn to the signs of cost pressure in the economy, manifested in the positive and rising growth in producer prices excluding energy and an acceleration in unit labour cost growth	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	322
some members of the council assessed that poland is likely to cease fulfilling the maastricht price stability criterion within a short time	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	687
it was pointed out that according to the march projection, cpi inflation in subsequent years would exceed this years level while remaining moderate and close to 2.5	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	376
it was underlined that as a result, uncertainty about the global economic outlook for the coming quarters had risen in recent months	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	573
the growing role of domestic demand, including investment and private consumption, in germanys economic growth means lower sensitivity of this economy to fluctuations in external demand	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	385
economic growth will be supported by expected rise in investment resulting from higher inflows of eu funds, amid a steady rise in consumption	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	827
it was also highlighted that there was a risk of inflation persisting at heightened level in the subsequent months, which would be attributable to the observed rise in commodity prices in the global markets	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	755
at the same time, some council members pointed to a slowdown in both industrial production at the beginning of 2015 q2 and sales in construction and assembly production in may 2015, as well as a merely moderate increase in retail sales	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	721
at the same time, in the opinion of certain council members, over the longer run investment growth might be additionally backed by the housing plus programme	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	370
moreover, in the assessment of those council members, the shifting of some central budget expenditures to other general government units, which was assumed in the discussed bill, led to reducing the transparency of the public finance and increasing the uncertainty as to the actual scale of fiscal imbalance in poland	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	600
it was also emphasized that the increase in excise tax on alcohol assumed in the preliminary draft budget act, and much stronger increase in excise tax on tobacco products than planned in the so-called road map, would contribute to higher cpi growth in 2025	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	255
these members pointed out that an additional source of shocks in international financial markets could be the bursting of bubbles in other asset markets, whose formation had been driven in their opinion by the unconventional policies of central banks	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	230
other council members, however, were convinced that the recently observed appreciation of the zloty exchange rate limited the rise of inflation and that the inflation outlook would be affected by future developments in the foreign exchange market	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	711
referring to the july nbp projection, some members of the council emphasized that the central paths of gdp and inflation in poland were slightly lower than those in the march projection; yet, this was mainly visible for the coming quarters	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	877
it was indicated that economic conditions had deteriorated in germany, polands key trading partner, which had been partly attributable to a number of one-off factors, such as strikes related to pay negotiations or unfavourable weather conditions	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	964
the majority of the council members stressed that continued uncertainty regarding the external and domestic determinants of monetary policy was another argument in favour of stabilization of interest rates at the current meeting	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	771
they also stressed that the low growth of corporate lending was connected with very good liquidity situation of enterprises and low level of investment activity	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	460
some council members emphasised that developments in the labour market, including the amount of labour supply, would also depend on changes in the tax and pension policy	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,010	111
the council decided to increase the nbp interest rates to the following levels reference rate to 4.75, lombard rate to 6.25, deposit rate to 3.25, rediscount rate to 5.00	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	122
a further decline in inflation was also indicated by external forecasts	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	345
falling unit labour costs in member states most severely affected by the debt crisis is also a factor lowering inflation in the euro area	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	634
a few council members assessed that, also over the next few quarters, ulc growth should remain slow	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	692
according to these members, faster productivity growth could lead to higher wages in poland provided that it was brought about by more innovation in the polish economy	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	22
it was pointed out that unemployment in july stayed at a historic low, while corporate employment continued to increase	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	780
certain council members pointed to the announced easing of the supervisory recommendations on credit scoring terms for certain loans	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	668
moreover, they pointed out that in february 2009 the inflation expectations of households and bank analysts declined	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	994
moreover, these council members observed that the pace of the economic recovery in poland might be reduced by the lack of a visible and more durable zloty exchange rate adjustment to the global pandemic shock and to the monetary policy easing introduced by nbp	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	443
certain council members expressed the opinion that the fall in economic activity might be accompanied by an increase in price growth in the medium term	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	267
some council members pointed out that acceleration in gdp growth in the coming quarters should be driven by a recovery in domestic demand, especially investment, which would be supported by the inflow of eu funds under the new budget perspective	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	701
in particular, a marked weakening was visible in the activity and survey indicators for germany, which is polands main trading partner	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	926
at the same time, it was observed that there was still heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook in the coming quarters, and its source continued to be the further course of the pandemic and its impact on the economic situation in poland and abroad	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	170
the council members underlined that in line with the march inflation projection following a considerable increase in the first months of the year, inflation would stabilise at a moderate level in the following quarters	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	272
it was pointed out that the annual cpi index was 1.8 percentage points lower in august than in february 2020	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	65
the majority of the council members assessed that inflation would stabilise at a moderate level in the following quarters	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	151
it was pointed out that euro area growth continued to be mainly driven by consumer demand, supported by relatively strong consumer sentiment and the improvement in the labour market conditions compared to previous years	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	756
those members pointed out that the likely slowdown in the world economy might lead to a slowdown in economic growth in poland	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	939
the majority of the council members assessed that the weakening of the external economic conditions, together with lower commodity prices, would continue to curb global inflation, which would still contribute to lower price growth in poland	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	922
as regards the impact of the exchange rate on inflation, few council members assessed that the likely appreciation of the equilibrium exchange rate would limit the anti-inflationary influence of the exchange rate appreciation at the beginning of 2012 on domestic prices	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	451
these council members pointed out that the decision would directly lead to a further reduction in instalments on loans with a variable interest rate taken out by enterprises and households	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	391
at the same time, members deemed that due to lags in monetary policy transmission, the shape of the 2017 fiscal policy was of key importance for the current interest rates decisions	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	204
in reference to the united states, it was underlined that the federal reserve would probably continue to gradually reduce the accommodative stance of its monetary policy, announcing in the near future the phasing out of reinvestment of maturing securities	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	229
in the united states, in turn, gdp growth in 2011 q3 accelerated slightly	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	299
at the meeting it was noted that in the first half of 2024 average inflation amounted to 2.7, and was thus consistent with the inflation target	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	276
they emphasised that, in line with the central path of the february projection based on the ecmod model, throughout the projection horizon domestic demand would be growing faster than gdp, and gdp would remain above its potential level, which should be conducive to increased inflationary pressure	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	486
some council members were of the opinion that those developments increased the risk that consumer demand, which had been the main driver of economic growth in germany up to that point, would weaken in the subsequent quarters	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	534
the continued high unemployment rate was also highlighted as a factor preventing potential escalation of wage pressure	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	978
according to those council members, in the light of available data the consolidation measures planned by the government may prove insufficient to reduce the public finance sector imbalances in line with the objectives outlined in the convergence programme 2009 update	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	884
a few members of the council argued that the zloty had weakened partially on the back of the slump of the rouble	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	541
gdp growth in 2022 q4 implied from the statistics poland preliminary data for the whole of 2022 was approx	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	983
in the opinion of these members, a halt in monetary policy tightening in poland, due to disruptions in international financial markets, might suggest that the national bank of poland would in future ease monetary policy in the event of problems resulting from financial institutions incurring excessive risk, which could increase moral hazard	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	969
however, a few council members noted the fact that core inflation ran at a level that in the past did not guarantee cpi inflation remaining within the tolerance band of deviations from the target	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	972
while referring to the inflation outlook against the background of the nbp november projection, the majority of the council members stressed that the projection confirmed a significant decline of risk that the coming quarters would bring intensification of demand pressure	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	980
according to these council members, such a move would curb the rise in real estate prices, contributing to increasing their affordability	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	305
certain council members also pointed to a possible pick-up in housing investment, driven by the improvement in the labour market situation and the decline in interest rates on loans	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	348

while assessing the outlook for economic growth in poland, it was pointed out that the growth of industrial output and retail sales in march was lower than in the previous two months and significantly below expectations

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,008

511

some members of the council emphasized that regardless of changes in the potential output growth, two factors on the one hand, a decline in the current account deficit considered safe by financial market participants, and, on the other hand, rising deficit in public finance could support a possible increase of the equilibrium interest rate

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

738

therefore they would have only a temporary impact on inflation, while at the same time, they would put a drag on economic activity

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

307

it was noted that these data were lower than the market expectations

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

83

during the meeting it was pointed out that inflation in poland according to the statistics poland flash estimate increased to 9.2 in january 2022

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

488

in addition, it was noted that economic consequences of deflation would depend on its level, sources and duration

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

566

council members expressed the opinion that despite stronger economic growth, inflation in light of the march projection will return to the target only gradually, and will remain below the target at least throughout this year

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

317

faster gdp growth in the coming quarters will be supported by a rebound in investment growth resulting from further rise in the use of eu funds under the new financial framework

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

244

it was pointed out that in the current conditions the central banks of the major economies were keeping interest rates low and purchasing assets

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

713

however, some council members indicated that the survey data from both the statistics poland and the nbp signalled a gradual weakening of demand for labour in the polish economy

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

403

in the euro area, economic growth declined in 2019 q4, amid the ongoing downturn in industry

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

357

while analyzing the situation in the real sphere of the polish economy, some members expressed the opinion that gdp growth in 2015 q2 might have continued close to the previous quarters level

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

674

in their assessment, this could indicate that the growth in cost pressure might have levelled off

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

119

certain council members pointed out that the price growth observed by some households might be higher than cpi inflation calculated for the average household

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

72

while discussing the outlook for inflation in poland, the majority of the council members pointed out that a further decline in price growth was expected

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

264

it was emphasised that high commodity prices, prolonged disruptions in global supply chains and international transport, exacerbated by the effects of the war, remained the main source of rising inflation

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

914

however, attention was also drawn to a deceleration in annual industrial production growth as well as a fall in construction and assembly output in february

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

359

those members pointed at the results of other forecasts conducted at the nbp according to which the forecast inflation, despite downward revision, would be running at an increased level in the coming quarters

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

169

with reference to the situation in the labour market, sustained employment growth and declining unemployment were highlighted

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

560

some council members pointed to a slight improvement in lending growth, supported by low loan costs

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

531

in this context, it was noted that lending, particularly to households, had slowed down very substantially

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

174

the main reasons for that are the fall in crude oil prices in the recent months and a reduction in energy tariffs on sale and distribution of gas and electricity for households effective from the beginning of 2016

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

225

other members, however, assessed that the spending of the public finance sector as a whole had increased significantly in 2007 and their structure had become more rigid

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

575

moreover, some council members argued that the fact that lending to the enterprise sector was markedly lower than a year ago could signal slow growth of this sectors investment

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

243

at the same time, in china and in other emerging economies, where growth has slowed down to a low level considering their past performance, there is persisting uncertainty about future developments in gdp

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

589

in the opinion of those members of the council it could also be expected that the forecast inflation decrease below the target in 2010 may prove short-lived

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

556

while discussing domestic monetary policy, the council members judged that the measures that nbp had taken so far had contributed to an easing of the monetary conditions

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

677

it was also underlined that in recent months the global prices of some agricultural commodities, in particular wheat, had also risen

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

416

in this context it was noted that inflation returning close to the inflation target in 2021 was suggested not only by the central path of the march projection, but also by external forecasts

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

893

however, other members of the council indicated that this rule should rather be used in ex post assessments

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,008

872

these involve growing demand pressure and a raise in local taxes, as well as higher prices of gas and some services related to the general government sector

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,014

883

the members of the council also discussed labour market developments

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

173

weakening economic activity is also confirmed by the data on industrial production and leading industrial indicators, which in the recent months were significantly lower than a few months ago

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

120

while arguing in favour of accelerating interest rate hikes, some members of the council justified it through uncertainty about the developments of the zloty exchange rate

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

261

in the opinion of the council members, favourable economic conditions will continue in the coming quarters, although gdp growth will probably slow down slightly compared to the second half of 2017

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

304

in the opinion of some council members, the somewhat slower growth of lending to the private sector in august 2011 may also point to the absence of mounting inflationary pressure

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

913

in the recent period, growth of producer prices also came to a halt

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

512

it was emphasised, however, that sentiment in manufacturing had weakened somewhat in february 2017

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

973

they assessed that inflation would be curbed by moderate economic growth

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,010

127

they also pointed out that it was not yet clear when poland would join the erm ii and so the considerations connected with erm ii membership should not be taken into account in current interest rate decisions

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

313

at the same time, given the strength and persistence of the earlier shocks, which remained beyond the impact of domestic monetary policy, the return of inflation to the nbp inflation target would be gradual

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

841

moreover, certain council members argued that the recent depreciation of the zloty could improve price competitiveness of polish exports, leading to higher gdp growth

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

901

some council members were of the opinion that the impact of the slowdown in china on the global economy would be amplified by potentially accompanying deceleration in other asian economies growth

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

349

while discussing inflation developments in poland, it was pointed out that annual consumer price growth had decreased at the beginning of 2018, and that core inflation net of food and energy prices remained low

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

830

few council members noted that interest rate decreases would reduce the public debt servicing costs and therefore support the economic policy of the government

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

156

also retail sales in real terms slowed down, with sales of durable goods falling compared to the previous year

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

723

attention was also drawn to the signs of cost pressure in the economy, manifested in the positive and rising growth in producer prices excluding energy and an acceleration in unit labour cost growth

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

322

some members of the council assessed that poland is likely to cease fulfilling the maastricht price stability criterion within a short time

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

687

it was pointed out that according to the march projection, cpi inflation in subsequent years would exceed this years level while remaining moderate and close to 2.5

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,019

376

it was underlined that as a result, uncertainty about the global economic outlook for the coming quarters had risen in recent months

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

573

the growing role of domestic demand, including investment and private consumption, in germanys economic growth means lower sensitivity of this economy to fluctuations in external demand

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

385

economic growth will be supported by expected rise in investment resulting from higher inflows of eu funds, amid a steady rise in consumption

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

827

it was also highlighted that there was a risk of inflation persisting at heightened level in the subsequent months, which would be attributable to the observed rise in commodity prices in the global markets

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

755

at the same time, some council members pointed to a slowdown in both industrial production at the beginning of 2015 q2 and sales in construction and assembly production in may 2015, as well as a merely moderate increase in retail sales

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

721

at the same time, in the opinion of certain council members, over the longer run investment growth might be additionally backed by the housing plus programme

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

370

moreover, in the assessment of those council members, the shifting of some central budget expenditures to other general government units, which was assumed in the discussed bill, led to reducing the transparency of the public finance and increasing the uncertainty as to the actual scale of fiscal imbalance in poland

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,009

600

it was also emphasized that the increase in excise tax on alcohol assumed in the preliminary draft budget act, and much stronger increase in excise tax on tobacco products than planned in the so-called road map, would contribute to higher cpi growth in 2025

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

255

these members pointed out that an additional source of shocks in international financial markets could be the bursting of bubbles in other asset markets, whose formation had been driven in their opinion by the unconventional policies of central banks

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

230

other council members, however, were convinced that the recently observed appreciation of the zloty exchange rate limited the rise of inflation and that the inflation outlook would be affected by future developments in the foreign exchange market

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

711

referring to the july nbp projection, some members of the council emphasized that the central paths of gdp and inflation in poland were slightly lower than those in the march projection; yet, this was mainly visible for the coming quarters

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

877

it was indicated that economic conditions had deteriorated in germany, polands key trading partner, which had been partly attributable to a number of one-off factors, such as strikes related to pay negotiations or unfavourable weather conditions

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

964

the majority of the council members stressed that continued uncertainty regarding the external and domestic determinants of monetary policy was another argument in favour of stabilization of interest rates at the current meeting

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

771

they also stressed that the low growth of corporate lending was connected with very good liquidity situation of enterprises and low level of investment activity

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

460

some council members emphasised that developments in the labour market, including the amount of labour supply, would also depend on changes in the tax and pension policy

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,010

111

the council decided to increase the nbp interest rates to the following levels reference rate to 4.75, lombard rate to 6.25, deposit rate to 3.25, rediscount rate to 5.00

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

122

a further decline in inflation was also indicated by external forecasts

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

345

falling unit labour costs in member states most severely affected by the debt crisis is also a factor lowering inflation in the euro area

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

634

a few council members assessed that, also over the next few quarters, ulc growth should remain slow

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

692

according to these members, faster productivity growth could lead to higher wages in poland provided that it was brought about by more innovation in the polish economy

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

22

it was pointed out that unemployment in july stayed at a historic low, while corporate employment continued to increase

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

780

certain council members pointed to the announced easing of the supervisory recommendations on credit scoring terms for certain loans

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

668

moreover, they pointed out that in february 2009 the inflation expectations of households and bank analysts declined

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

994

moreover, these council members observed that the pace of the economic recovery in poland might be reduced by the lack of a visible and more durable zloty exchange rate adjustment to the global pandemic shock and to the monetary policy easing introduced by nbp

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

443

certain council members expressed the opinion that the fall in economic activity might be accompanied by an increase in price growth in the medium term

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

267

some council members pointed out that acceleration in gdp growth in the coming quarters should be driven by a recovery in domestic demand, especially investment, which would be supported by the inflow of eu funds under the new budget perspective

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

701

in particular, a marked weakening was visible in the activity and survey indicators for germany, which is polands main trading partner

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

926

at the same time, it was observed that there was still heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook in the coming quarters, and its source continued to be the further course of the pandemic and its impact on the economic situation in poland and abroad

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

170

the council members underlined that in line with the march inflation projection following a considerable increase in the first months of the year, inflation would stabilise at a moderate level in the following quarters

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

272

it was pointed out that the annual cpi index was 1.8 percentage points lower in august than in february 2020

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

65

the majority of the council members assessed that inflation would stabilise at a moderate level in the following quarters

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

151

it was pointed out that euro area growth continued to be mainly driven by consumer demand, supported by relatively strong consumer sentiment and the improvement in the labour market conditions compared to previous years

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

756

those members pointed out that the likely slowdown in the world economy might lead to a slowdown in economic growth in poland

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

939

the majority of the council members assessed that the weakening of the external economic conditions, together with lower commodity prices, would continue to curb global inflation, which would still contribute to lower price growth in poland

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

922

as regards the impact of the exchange rate on inflation, few council members assessed that the likely appreciation of the equilibrium exchange rate would limit the anti-inflationary influence of the exchange rate appreciation at the beginning of 2012 on domestic prices

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

451

these council members pointed out that the decision would directly lead to a further reduction in instalments on loans with a variable interest rate taken out by enterprises and households

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

391

at the same time, members deemed that due to lags in monetary policy transmission, the shape of the 2017 fiscal policy was of key importance for the current interest rates decisions

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

204

in reference to the united states, it was underlined that the federal reserve would probably continue to gradually reduce the accommodative stance of its monetary policy, announcing in the near future the phasing out of reinvestment of maturing securities

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

229

in the united states, in turn, gdp growth in 2011 q3 accelerated slightly

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

299

at the meeting it was noted that in the first half of 2024 average inflation amounted to 2.7, and was thus consistent with the inflation target

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

276

they emphasised that, in line with the central path of the february projection based on the ecmod model, throughout the projection horizon domestic demand would be growing faster than gdp, and gdp would remain above its potential level, which should be conducive to increased inflationary pressure

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,008

486

some council members were of the opinion that those developments increased the risk that consumer demand, which had been the main driver of economic growth in germany up to that point, would weaken in the subsequent quarters

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

534

the continued high unemployment rate was also highlighted as a factor preventing potential escalation of wage pressure

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

978

according to those council members, in the light of available data the consolidation measures planned by the government may prove insufficient to reduce the public finance sector imbalances in line with the objectives outlined in the convergence programme 2009 update

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

884

a few members of the council argued that the zloty had weakened partially on the back of the slump of the rouble

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,015

541

gdp growth in 2022 q4 implied from the statistics poland preliminary data for the whole of 2022 was approx

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

983

in the opinion of these members, a halt in monetary policy tightening in poland, due to disruptions in international financial markets, might suggest that the national bank of poland would in future ease monetary policy in the event of problems resulting from financial institutions incurring excessive risk, which could increase moral hazard

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,007

969

however, a few council members noted the fact that core inflation ran at a level that in the past did not guarantee cpi inflation remaining within the tolerance band of deviations from the target

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

972

while referring to the inflation outlook against the background of the nbp november projection, the majority of the council members stressed that the projection confirmed a significant decline of risk that the coming quarters would bring intensification of demand pressure

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

980

according to these council members, such a move would curb the rise in real estate prices, contributing to increasing their affordability

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

305

certain council members also pointed to a possible pick-up in housing investment, driven by the improvement in the labour market situation and the decline in interest rates on loans

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

348