Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_brazil

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
sentences
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21
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int64
2k
2.02k
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999
second, the marginal deterioration of market inflation expectations for 2005, even after the adjustment in the monetary stance, is an alert of its possible downward rigidity
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,004
549
ipca core inflation continued to accelerate in november, according to the three criteria by excluding regulated prices and household food, by smoothed and by non-smoothed trimmed-means
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
476
they considered that despite the intensity of the second wave of the pandemic, the latest available data have surprised positively
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
663
the reduction of idle capacity, in relation to the margins usually observed, occurs in several sectors despite the significant increase of investment
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
820
the intensity of the pass-through will depend on price-makers future inflation expectations
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,004
736
this implies assigning greater probability to alternative scenarios that consider higher neutral interest rates
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
867
the committee noticed a persistent dynamism in the labor market, with real wage gains in recent months
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
32
the committee believes that the bcb has the appropriate and necessary liquidity instruments, associated with macroprudential policy, to deal with relevant frictions in the system, should they occur
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
990
copom emphasizes that the main challenge of monetary policy in this context is to guarantee the maintenance of favorable results achieved in the last years, when inflation targets were systematically met
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
676
regarding the factors market, as anticipated by previous minutes, the copom highlights that the narrow idleness margin in the labor market has eased at the margin, with some data indicating the start of a process of distension in this market
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
234
among the factors underpinning this movement, it bears highlighting, on the domestic scenario, the disclosure of more pressured price indices and the market expectation for the start of the selic target increase cycle
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
833
between november 17 and december 15, the 1-month and 6-month interest rates increased by 0.35 p.p
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
892
in february, based on seasonally adjusted data, formal employment expanded by 0.4, with creation of 119.4 thousand jobs in the two-month period
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
472
regarding metal commodities, it bears highlighting the advance in the price of iron ore and the decline in the price of aluminum
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
201
weaker industrial activity levels are expected to reduce imports
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,001
745
however, expansion in production capacity and productivity gains achieved in recent years have created considerable additional leeway for continued growth under this heading
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,000
678
for 2012, the projection stands above the midpoint target in the benchmark scenario and around the target in the market scenario
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
959
under the inflation-targeting regime, the copom guides its decisions according to the projected inflation, the analysis of several alternative scenarios for the evolution of the main variables that determine the forwardlooking prices dynamics and the balance of risks associated to their projections
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
710
thus, in the case of a negative shock, action should be taken to let the deviation from target be only temporary
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,001
159
above the observed in the same period of 2006 and 1.2 p.p
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,007
368
as a result, the copom members concluded that the current scenario ceased to prescribe an extraordinary degree of stimulus, and that the copom should begin a process of partial normalization of the policy rate
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
185
the copom reiterates that the removal of the forward guidance does not mechanically imply interest rates increases, since, at this moment, uncertainties regarding the evolution of growth still prescribe an extraordinarily strong monetary stimulus
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
728
the brazilian economy, more specifically, does not seem to have been significantly affected by the recent turmoil, and should sustain its growth trajectory, essentially driven by domestic demand
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
735
considering the hypothesis that important external variables continue under pressure for a longer period, the flexibility of the inflation-targeting regime could judiciously absorb the primary shocks associated with this pressure
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,004
492
the overall average tenure on credit operations reached 94.8 months in november, representing a decrease of 0.8 months, month-on-month, and an increase of 8.1 months, year-over-year
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
505
for fuels and lubricant, the import reduction, due to the contraction in economic growth, might be mitigated by the necessity to substitute electric energy for energy generated from oil by products
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,001
168
there has been an adjustment in the extent and speed of the monetary policy tightening cycle in some advanced countries, which has led to a further tightening of financial conditions
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
38
in general, the recent evolution of these indices signals reduction of the pressures stemming from wholesale prices over consumer prices
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
101
the copom evaluates that the probability that emerging local inflationary pressures will represent risks to the domestic inflation trajectory has increased, because the heated demand and market of factors, in addition to the possibility of existence of supply restrictions in some sectors, can increase the pass-through of wholesale prices over consumer price inflation
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
233
in the fx markets, there is a consensus about the continuity of the dollar depreciation due to the increasing u.s. current account deficits
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,004
266
nevertheless, developments have so far mitigated the effects on the brazilian economy of possible changes in economic policy in some large economies, notably in the united states
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
470
at the same time, in the alternative scenario which considers no additional increase in domestic fuel prices, the target for 2001 would be met with considerable ease
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,000
688
however, it bears emphasizing that the prospects for foreign funding of brazilian economy remain favorable
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
707
prospective assessment of inflation trends an evaluation of the inflation outlook required identification of shocks with potential for generating impacts on future price level trajectories
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,000
278
in the case of the euro zone, the outlook was bright, particularly with regard to the expected performance of the german and french economies
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,000
570
with regard to the labor market, figures for the first half of the year indicate that the process of employment and productivity growth begun toward the end of 1999 has moved steadily forward
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
670
under these circumstances, the pace of activity depends significantly upon the evolution of real earnings, the effects of fiscal stimulus measures and the increments of governmental transfers that will occur in the upcoming months
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,010
675
therefore, the strategy adopted by the copom aims to ensure the convergence of inflation towards the targets path in 2010 and in the next years, which requires that possible deviations from the target path be promptly corrected
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,010
144
in the euro area, fiscal concerns turn the recovery more uncertain, the household consumption shows no consistent signs of reaction, and the economic recovery tends to be slower and uneven
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
918
all committee members agreed that the prospects for inflation have evolved in a favorable way
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
141
other monetary policy instruments are only complementary
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,001
263
regarding metal commodities, we highlight the advance in the price of tin and decline in the price of iron ore
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
128
however, it is not a trivial task to adequately quantify these effects and their repercussions
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
607
however, during periods of disinflation, nominal interest rates are expected to fall gradually, and therefore forecasts for relatively long time horizons based on constant nominal interest rates tend to overestimate the downward trajectory of inflation
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,003
108
the committee judges that convergence of inflation to the target over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy, which includes 2018 and 2019, is compatible with the monetary easing process
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
105
the strategy of rolling exchange securities as they mature continued in the period under analysis
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,000
35
for the next quarters, the retail sales trajectory will continue to be sustained by fiscal transfers, as well as by real payroll growth, whose evolution should be favored by the reduction of inflation, but it will also be affected by the evolution in the access to credit supply and by the behavior of consumer confidence
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
839
in the euro area, the most recent indicators of industrial production, consumption, economic sentiment and unemployment rate reinforce the prospects of continued contraction of economic activity in the region
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
537
the temporary halt in the transportation the copoms inflation projections in the scenario sector in may, however, makes it more difficult to with interest rate and exchange rate paths extracted assess the recent evolution of economic activity
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
495
the turbulent environment has reinforced the defensive nature of economic agents reactions to events in argentina, and, to a lesser extent, to the domestic political environment
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
979
similarly, prices of international agricultural commodities and domestic food prices, which also contributed to disinflation throughout 2023, no longer suggest downside pressures with the same intensity in the next quarters
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
271
on the other hand, in economies where inflation rates are at high levels relative to their respective targets, the scope for reaction to the contraction caused by the credit crisis seems more limited
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
8
the main drivers were gasoline, meat, urban bus fares, clothing, chicken, housemaid services, fuel-alcohol, and water and sewage prices, responsible for 0.61 p.p
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
737
the dollar fell against the currencies of korea, mexico and the uk, and appreciated against the currencies of australia, japan, south africa, brazil, chile, india and turkey
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
523
moreover, the committee evaluates that, in the medium term, important changes should take place in the composition of aggregate supply and demand
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
968
the projection for the spreads over the selic rate, based on the 360-day swap rates, on the baseline scenario, estimates 103 bps and 5 bps spreads for the fourth quarters of 2013 and 2014, respectively
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
279
evidences under this respect can be observed, among other factors, through the accomplishment of inflation targets in the last six years, at the same time that real interest rates have reduced
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
853
it bears highlighting that the geopolitical complexity that involves the oil sector tends to heighten the volatile behavior of prices, which is also a reflex of the low predictability of some global demand components and of the dependency of supply growth on long term risky investment projects
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
899
the perception of economic slack for an extended period, along with the communication of central banks of major economies, creates an environment of liquidity and return of capital flows, favorable to emerging economies
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
282
still regarding the foreign sector, among the uncertainties that were mitigated, the ones related to the foreign funding of argentina may be included
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,001
758
with the substantial fall in the prices of oil and agricultural commodities, and the increase of unemployment, the inflationary process already records turning points in the majority of mature economies
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
375
however, until this moment, brazilian economic activity does not seem to have been significantly impacted by the persistent deterioration on global financial markets confidence, and, despite not decoupled from external economic developments, brazilian economy should sustain its growth trajectory, essentially driven by domestic demand
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
937
on its turn, the japanese economy cannot overcome deflation and recovers at a slow pace, led by exports
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
92
the volume of capital goods imports declined by 7, based on information available up to april
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
371
short-run inflation behavior has been more favorable, which may signal lower inflation returning to the domestic economy, recent persistence
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
190
focusing on the supply side, the committee evaluates that, in the longer term, more favorable prospects for the competitiveness of industry and agriculture have emerged; the services sector, on its turn, tends to grow at rates lower than those recorded over the recent years
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
546
committee members discussed recent inflation the copom stresses that the continuation of projections and the levels of various measures of reforms and necessary adjustments in the brazilian underlying inflation
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
804
the forecast for 2005 remained unaltered
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,004
325
manufacturing industry was the sector that recorded the higher number of dismissals, 273.2 thousand, followed by agriculture and services, which eliminated 134.5 and 117.1 thousand jobs, respectively
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
568
leading and coincident indicators anticipate a new increase in industrial output in february
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,005
404
this favors the continuity of adequate external financing of the current account balance, even in the context of lower direct investment flows
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,001
352
the number of working days in march 2003 was lower than normal due to the carnival holidays
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,003
866
industrial sales growth surpassed industrial production growth for the third consecutive month
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
208
in the central economies, therefore, the prospects for adoption of monetary tightening policies seem limited
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
679
in fact, pressures over production factors availability have triggered inflationary pressures in many emerging economies, many of which are in the midst of monetary tightening cycles
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
145
copom also evaluated that there is no evidence of an ongoing monetary tightening beyond that necessary for the inflation convergence to the target, and the scenario still calls for caution, reinforcing the view of serenity and moderation that copom has expressed
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
567
of the factors that have caused the greatest concern on the international scenario, petroleum is the most troublesome
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
793
the committee maintained the expectation of a recovery in activity in the second half of the year, although less intense and more concentrated in the services sector
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
6
in the absence of inflationary pressures, the basic interest rates remained steady in the central economies, except for the united kingdom, where there was an increase of 25 b.p of the bank of englands repo rate
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
329
however, the assessment was that this stabilization occurred at levels lower that those observed at the beginning of the year, which implies higher risk premia
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
857
there is no factor that is by itself determinant for monetary policy decisions
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
653
business sentiment in the us, japan and europe continued to improve
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
612
gdp growth was adjusted according to recent data released by ibge
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
104
if those shocks prove to be more persistent or larger than anticipated, the committee will be ready to adjust the size of the monetary tightening cycle
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
21
some members emphasized the recent dynamics, while others emphasized that the underlying fundamentals for the dynamics of services inflation do not allow yet to convincingly extrapolate the recent benign behavior
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
517
growth of 3.1 in february in the seasonally adjusted series resulted in expansion of 10.7 in the first two months of the year, in comparison to the same period of the preceding year
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
514
since inflation remains relatively high, it is still premature to conclude that inflation persistence is definitively decreasing and that the effect of the exchange rate appreciation on prices is significant
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,003
69
in this environment, there are signs, albeit incipient, of reduction in risk aversion, but the return of confidence remains fragile, due to the susceptibility of the markets to the flow of economic and non-economic news
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
165
according to the market scenario, 2014 ipca inflation forecast decreased, but is above the midpoint inflation target
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,013
301
in the euro zone, the economic activity is at its longest period of contraction
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
648
the committee evaluates that the global inflationary scenario is still challenging
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
66
jan. 31 - feb. 1 mitigate any inflationary effects of the fiscal policy
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
680
the effects of these stimuli, however, are counterbalanced by the effects of the reversal of initiatives taken during the recent financial crisis, by the not yet very favorable prospects for global economy and, mainly, by recent macroprudential actions
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
900
at the external scenario, the possibility of europes debt crisis deepening, the release of weaker economic indicators in europe, us and china and the retreat of the north american treasuries rates have also contributed to the reduction of the future rates
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
450
including those of fiscal nature, presents itself as both a risk and an opportunity for the ongoing room for the beginning of a process of gradual and disinflationary process
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
68
hence, the contribution of market prices to inflation increased in additionally, of the 1.70 p.p
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
700
it should be highlighted that the emergency of signs pointing to pressure over the availability of production factors, as suggested in some industrial surveys, indicates that accommodation in the pace of industrial activity expansion could be greatly associated to productive capacity restrictions
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
483
the committee considers that the external environment remains especially complex
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
729
in october, there were no monetary authoritys interventions in the domestic spot market
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
734
the existence of signs pointing to pressure over the availability of production factors suggests that accommodation in the pace of industrial activity expansion can be greatly associated to productive capacity restrictions, added up to imports penetration increase
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
58