Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_brazil

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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in the month, fixed rate loans fell in some segments, mirroring the reduction in the slope of the yield curve as a result of the improvement in the sovereign-risk premium and the expectations of falling inflation
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
511
the committee judges that this decision reflects the uncertainty around its scenarios for prospective inflation, an even higher-than-usual variance in the balance of risks, and is consistent with the strategy for inflation convergence to a level around its target throughout the relevant horizon for monetary policy, which includes 2023 and without compromising its fundamental objective of ensuring price stability, this decision also implies smoothing of economic fluctuations and fosters full employment
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
738
finally, some members argued that the eventual there are risks that are inherent to the conduct end of the benign period for emerging economies monetary policy so that inflation projections, they may constitute both a risk and an opportunity
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
307
however, the dynamics of the global economic recovery remain fragile, with uncertainty regarding growth and deflationary risks in major developed economies
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,016
83
the copom members debated on the level of economic slack
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,021
488
growth was particularly strong under sales involving goods with high unit value as a result of a more ample supply of credit
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
566
notwithstanding expectations of lesser primary surpluses in the final months of the year, 1999 fiscal performance has been quite satisfactory and easily surpassed the targets defined in the economic program agreed upon with the imf
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
317
despite the continuous fall in agriculture prices, industrial prices showed sharp increase in the period
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
244
the committee reinforced that it is necessary to remain vigilant, assessing if the strategy of maintaining the selic rate for a sufficiently long period will be enough to ensure the convergence of inflation
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
713
data have also continued to indicate that employment has increased at a higher pace outside large metropolitan areas
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
403
rollover rates continue to recover, although they are at a reduced level, which contributed to negative fx flows in the first days of march
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
357
this indication reflects the stage of the tightening cycle as its cumulative effects will manifest themselves over the relevant horizon
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
674
industrial output was 8.4 higher than in february 1999, while new housing starts expanded by 2.4, utilizing the same basis of comparison
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
119
these considerations become even more relevant considering the clear signs of heated aggregate demand, the dissemination of pressures stemming from adjustments in relative prices, and the fact that the monetary policy decisions will have concentrated effects in the last months of 2008 and in the copom recognizes the important contribution of investment to expand productive capacity
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
72
in emerging economies, in general, the monetary policy bias is expansionist, which combines, in some cases, with other countercyclical policies
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
264
nonetheless, after the attacks to the u.s. on september 11, this trajectory reverted, with the spread increasing to 320 bp on september on that date, a higher slope was observed in the whole extension of the curve
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
914
while imports of fuels and lubricants expanded as a result of price growth, foreign purchases of raw materials were pressured by growth in the volume of imports
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
359
the committee will monitor the different measures of exchange-rate pass-through to both inflation and underlying inflation
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
169
they stressed that the persistence of uncertainties regarding fiscal committee members then discussed the evolution, sustainability tends to be contractionary
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
560
despite this, the off-season agricultural period could have a marginal impact on inflation in the final quarter of the year
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,000
531
in relation to february, industrial production fell by 1 and the pace of annual growth declined to 4.7, as against 8.4 in the previous month
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
174
a reduction in the slope of the term interest rate came along with a lower exchange rate pressure and a drop in brazils risk
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
225
the greek long-term debt was downgraded by a rating agency, and the greek government formalized, with the countries that comprise the euro area and the imf, the request for activation of the loan scheme
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
575
copom sustained its usual governance of incorporating the policies already sanctioned by law, but it acknowledges that the implementation of the proposed fiscal package could reduce the upside inflation risk
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
243
the scenario of solid expansion of capital goods production observed since 2007, mainly driven by the consolidation of positive prospects for the continuity of economic growth, underpinned by the perception of macroeconomic stability consolidation, seems to persist in this year
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
589
the committee also emphasizes that high inflation rates reduce the purchasing power of wages and transfers, with negative repercussions over the households confidence and consumption
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
556
there are evidences that the deeper weakening of economic activity in europe and parts of asia was predominantly due to the negative shock in the terms of trade caused by the elevation of commodities prices, which could be reversing
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
677
these estimates naturally involve uncertainty and will continue to be reassessed by the committee over time
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
416
in the industrial countries, as a response to the incidents of september 11th in the united states, a slowdown in the consumption is observed, notwithstanding the drastic cut in interest rates made by the major central banks
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
893
the services sector, on its turn, tends to grow at rates lower than those recorded over the recent years
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
872
in any case, most monetary authorities signal a prolonged period of high interest rates is necessary to fight inflationary pressures, which calls for greater caution in the conduct of economic policies also by emerging countries
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
883
in the that the approval and implementation of reforms end, the understanding prevailed that the focus on notably those of a fiscal nature and adjustments in the best possible decision, given the set of the brazilian economy are fundamental for the information available at the time, results, over time, sustainability of the environment of low and stable in greater credibility for monetary policy
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
173
further increases of fuel-alcohol prices, the readjustment of gasoline prices announced on november 26, and the urban bus fare increases in recife and belo horizonte should be emphasized
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
120
therefore, evidence suggests that the utilization rates have accommodated at high levels, and that the maintenance of the reduced idleness margin is the result of the recent economic activity expansion, still not totally offset by the maturity of completed and ongoing investment projects
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
261
it is also noteworthy that global economic deceleration has generated downward pressures over wholesale industrial prices
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
304
the recovery is jeopardized by high energy prices and the euro appreciation, which affects exports
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
913
the committee notes that the domestic demand will continue to be driven by the lagged effects of monetary policy actions recently implemented, as well as the moderate expansion of credit supply, both for individuals and corporates
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
512
regarding the first half of 2012, the projection decreased under the benchmark scenario, although the contrary movement was observed under the market scenario, but under both scenarios the projection is around the inflation midpoint target
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,010
973
despite the restrictive monetary conditions, copom emphasized that the cycle of monetary easing is already being transmitted to the credit market
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
127
the risk aversion increase and the constraint of liquidity conditions prevailing in international markets continue to impose adjustments in the balance of payments, but show significant easing at the margin
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
313
more recently, some developed countries postponed the easing cycle while others opted for a cautious start to the monetary easing process
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
841
in china and in korea, domestic demand sustains economic growth, compensating the retraction in external demand
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,002
901
the bcb also borrowed money through 30 overnight repo operations and conducted daily, at the end of day, two-working-day-tenure liquidity management operations
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
349
the members of the should not be interpreted as a change in the conduct copom reinforced the importance of emphasizing their of monetary policy
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
830
in this context, the reduction of inflationary pressures continues to require the commitment and determination of central banks with the control of inflation through a more prolonged tightening of financial conditions
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
156
the committee debated the recent labor market data
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
723
on the other hand, the committee notices that the significant monetary policy easing, implemented from january to july, will have cumulative effects over the economy, which will be evidenced with a time lag
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
322
in fact, recent data about the absorption of capital goods still dont allow the conclusion of inflexion in the investment expansion trend
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
687
for the next quarters, the continuity of the current expansion cycle of retail sales is expected, and will continue to be underpinned by employment and income growth, credit expansion and the maintenance of consumer confidence at high levels
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
376
they analyzed the inflation trajectory during this and the following years
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
573
on its turn, important fiscal and credit incentives have been provided to the economy in recent quarters, and should contribute to consolidating the resumption of activity and hence, to reduce the residual idleness margin of productive factors
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
385
in the first four months of the year, growth in consumption and investment indicators was driven by expanded exports, improved expectations on the part of economic agents, an increased credit supply and declining banking system interest rates
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
827
the committee assessed that this signaling is due to prudential restrictions regarding reductions of the selic rate and, therefore, should be kept in communication
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
755
the committee emphasizes that this prescription requires an environment with anchored expectations
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
721
the average tenure on non-earmarked credit operations, used as reference for interest rates reached 452 days, up from 448 days in june
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
370
on the other hand, important monetary and fiscal stimuli were introduced in the economy over the last few months, and should contribute to the recovery of the economy, and consequently, to the reduction of the idleness margin of production factors
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
600
the preservation of inflation rates in line with the targets path and the consolidation of a long-lasting stable macroeconomic scenario will contribute to the progressive reduction of macroeconomic risk perception that has occurred in the last years
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
255
finally, in the balance of risks, besides the factors already mentioned, the committee evaluates that the probability of the most extreme scenarios for the public debt trajectory has reduced, but also noted that there was no relevant change in the inflation projections since expectations did not change significantly
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
230
the main scenario adopted by the copom assumes unchanged domestic gasoline prices in regarding the prices of other commodities, it is noteworthy the increase in the agricultural international prices
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
711
during the coming months, credit growth, despite more moderate due to an increase in funding costs, and real payroll expansion should continue to bolster economic activity
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
877
there is some consensus that the subprime mortgages crisis will hit the real sector of us economy and affect the countrys growth, but the consequences over global economy tend to be less important
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,007
964
considering credit operations by economic activity, loans to industries, other services and commerce increased above the overall average in august
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
771
regarding monetary policy, advanced economies have persisted with strongly accommodative stances
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
460
due to the intrinsic uncertainty and the very nature of this variable, the committee reinforced that the neutral rate is not a variable to be updated at a high frequency and that it is not expected to register abrupt movements either, except in exceptional cases
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
111
out of this total, there was the creation of 61.5 11 thousand jobs in the services sector, 42.2 thousand jobs in civil construction, 37.5 thousand jobs in manufacturing industry and 12.3 thousand jobs in the agricultural and livestock sector; while 36.3 thousand jobs in commerce were eliminated
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
122
the copom evaluates that the domestic activity expansion pace tends to be less intense this year, compared to 2013, as well that, in the medium term, important changes must take place in the composition of aggregate supply and demand
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
345
copom emphasized that the extension of the cycle over time will depend on the inflationary dynamics, especially the components that are more sensitive to monetary policy and economic activity, on inflation expectations, in particular the longer-term ones, on its inflation projections, on the output gap, and on the balance of risks
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
634
if the quarterly moving average is taken, the result in november was the sixth increase in a row
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
692
the residential properties prices continue increasing, which, combined with the high prices of the stocks, has resulted in an increase in household wealth
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
22
copom determined that measures should be implemented so that price formation in the exchange market ceases to present the characteristics of a speculative bubble
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,001
780
this short-term trajectory reflects, whether the degree of monetary stimulus is adequate
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
668
despite the unprecedented actions taken by the authorities in the us and europe, using wide range of instruments, in order to ensure minimum conditions of operation and liquidity in money markets, systemic risk perception is still in evidence
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
994
the committee also stresses that monetary policy should continue being contractionary for sufficient time at a level that consolidates both the disinflation process and the anchoring of expectations around the targets
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
443
approximately 58 of the revenues of the two sales were liquidated through the use of securitized credits for which the national treasury was liable
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,000
267
economic activity data indicate that the pace of domestic demand expansion continued quite robust until the third quarter, and it is at least partially responsible for the inflationary acceleration trend, despite strong imports growth and the favorable investment performance in line with assessments present in previous copom minutes
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
701
as mentioned in the september copom minutes, monthly packaging paper shipments are imprecise as a coincident indicator of the industrial activity, if analyzed apart from the historical series
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
926
regarding the external component of aggregate demand, the scenario of greater global growth, combined with the depreciation of the brl, contributes to make this component more favorable to the brazilian economy growth
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
170
in april, employment in the manufacturing sector increased, while real payroll registered a slight decrease, although it kept in an upward trend
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
272
the recent behavior of international petroleum prices, despite the production cuts announced by opec, suggests a weakening of the upward price trend started two years ago
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,001
65
the options to raise the base interest rates by 0.25 p.p
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
151
the moderation in the pace of growth was noticeable in all components of domestic demand, and resulted, in part, from the policy actions implemented since the end of 2010, intensified by the deterioration of the global economic scenario since the third quarter of last year
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
756
the data already released for the last months point, in short, to the interruption of the industrial production expansion cycle, mainly due to the deterioration of global economic prospects and its effects over the brazilian economy
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
939
as a consequence, labor force increases causing the unemployment rate to rise
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
922
nonetheless, there is a significant risk factor in the external scenario
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
451
the copom evaluates that the probability that initially localized inflationary pressures may impose risks to the inflationary trajectory is limited
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
391
this way, contrasting to what had happened in recent times, the net redemption of competitive debt was not significant
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
204
the copom evaluates that emerging local inflationary pressures are more likely to represent risks to domestic inflation trajectory, because the heated demand can increase the pass-through of wholesale prices over consumer price inflation
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
229
international liquidity and markets stability remain tied to macroeconomic conditions in the industrialized countries, especially the united states, and to the possible response of the feds monetary policy to these economic developments
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,005
299
the final impact on those markets will be greater the longer the higher interest rates last, which could lead to reallocations in the debt rollover process
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
276
the committee will continue to reassess relative price shocks in an inflation targeting regime the estimates of this rate over time
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
486
industrial production decreased in 16 of the 27 branches of activity
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
534
in the month of february, the harmonized consumer price index closed at 2, the upper limit of the informal target range defined by the european central bank
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
978
it is not intended to bind banco central do brasil in its monetary or foreign_ trend expected to continue in in relation to the civil construction industry, the gap between the growth of production of equipment used by the sector and its modest performance in the last few years indicates favorable conditions for a future recovery
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,002
884
regarding the domestic outlook, the effects of selic rate adjustments have not been totally incorporated into price dynamics
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
541
in short, uncertainty regarding the sustainability of consumption expansion in mature economies still remains, mainly in europe, in a scenario of withdrawal of economic policy stimuli and modest prospects for credit expansion, but the recovery shows some consolidation
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
983
with this background, the on the one hand, economic slack may continue to environment for emerging economies has become produce a lower-than-expected prospective inflation challenging, despite the additional provision of trajectory
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
969
still in the external scenario, the committee discussed the causes for the economic activity resilience observed in several economies, concomitantly to the disinflationary process, even in face of historically strong monetary tightening cycles
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
972
this scenario tends to become deepen in the short run, as a function of the recrudescence of american consumer and corporate spending contraction, in response to the attacks on september nonetheless, the easing, already in progress, of monetary and fiscal policies in the united states should contribute to mitigate the contracting output trend in the medium term, with positive impacts for the world economy
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,001
980
the deceleration in the us economy, the financial and capital markets swings and the effects of commodities prices rises increased the risk of deceleration in global economy
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
305
these auctions were used to fully rollover principal and interest payments due in maturing instruments in april19
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,001
348