Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_brazil

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
sentences
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there are solid evidence of a smaller inflation inertia in the brazilian economy in recent years
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
157
as with activity, the committee believes that the pandemic should continue to have heterogeneous effects on the economic sectors
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
269
these surveys also perceived a better prospect in terms of domestic demand
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,004
336
the copom evaluates that the probability that initially localized inflationary pressures may cause risk to domestic inflation trajectory continues to diminish
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
586
according to a banco central survey, the expectations of analysts with regard to the major price indices in the first quarter of 2000 point to lower inflation, particularly in general price indices
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,000
908
regarding monetary policy, mature economies have continued to adopt accommodative monetary stances and, in specific cases, non-conventional monetary policy initiatives
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
14
accordingly, the majority of the committee members argued, in particular, that the remaining uncertainties about the pace of economic recovery, largely due to the prospects that the period of weakness in the global economy will be more prolonged than anticipated, will have disinflationary impact on the domestic economy
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
582
the current lack of liquidity conditions and further deterioration of growth prospects are set to be the most likely scenario for the short and medium term, which contributes for the global financial system to remain under severe stress
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
293
these effects may be mitigated by the level of economic slack and by inflation expectations anchored around the targets
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
34
the bcb also carried out leveling operations, at the end of the day, on 30 occasions, as a borrower
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
706
the copom evaluates that the loss of strength on domestic demand should result in reduction of inflationary pressures
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
326
this ability to respond to different for prospective inflation and the associated balance of circumstances contributes to the maintenance of the risks and is consistent with the convergence of inflation environment with anchored expectations, which is to the targets over the relevant horizon for the conduct fundamental to ensure that the achievement of low of monetary policy, which includes inflation persists, even in face of adverse shocks
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
886
the major factors of uncertainty analyzed during recent meetings underwent considerable change
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
682
still regarding the debate about the current neutral interest rate in the economy, some members raised an additional aspect, related to the recent economic data set
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
931
the current conditions of world growth have negatively impacted brazilian exports as to what demand and prices are concerned
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
181
the committee believes that the disinflation dynamics is still characterized by a process with two distinct stages
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
80
on the other hand, in china, wholesale inflation increased in august
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
497
the us economic activity, for instance, has shown signs of stabilization in household consumption and in the housing market
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
63
unemployment held steady at 4.0
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
79
the labor market is starting to adjust, albeit gradually, to this environment, which shall exert additional pressure to the real wage bill, already affected by the impact from administered price adjustments
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,001
406
on the other hand, the and necessary adjustments in the brazilian economy
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
786
as the initial monetary impulse loses momentum, and the economic recovery process begins to be sustained on its self-propagation mechanisms, it is natural and sound that, at the margin, production and sales growth rates decelerate
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,004
311
the committee removed residual uncertainty about the approval of the fiscal framework from its balance of risks but noted in its discussion that fiscal dynamics remained relevant in its reference scenario
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
986
as already mentioned before, it is not possible to establish accurately the impacts of the 10 p.p
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
821
the copom understands that the maintenance of monetary stability is a necessary condition so that the relative prices system continues to signal efficiently the adjustments requested for ongoing consumption and production patterns in the economy
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
33
consumption and credit indicators confirm the outlook for strong improvement in the level of activity over the course of 2000 but do not constitute a source of inflationary pressures
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,000
296
for the committee, all these changes are characterized by a high degree of persistence although, due to the economic cycles themselves, specific and temporary reversions may occur and contribute for the brazilian economy to currently present solid indicators of solvency and liquidity
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
62
they concluded in favor of signaling, conditionally, that if the outlook evolves according to the copoms baseline scenario, and due to the stage of the easing cycle, a moderate reduction in the robust balance of payments, low inflation recovery of the economy acts in the opposite environment, anchored expectations and prospect of direction, by gradually pushing inflation towards economic recovery
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
211
this is the only way to retain the disinflation gains obtained during 2003, not endorsing price increases in the sectors that benefited from the rebound in demand to contaminate overall inflation
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
339
prospects for the evolution of domestic economic activity remain favorable, at a less intense rhythm than the observed at the start of the year, as evidenced by data on trade, inventories and industrial production, among others
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,010
542
out of the ten sectors surveyed, eight sectors performed positively month-on-month in november
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
56
firstly, it continues to assess that markets are more sensitive to developments that affect fiscal fundamentals, due to the combination of higher interest rates and sovereign debt at historically high levels
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
396
first, the stage of the adjustment cycle is characterized by an already effectively tightening monetary policy, which is evidenced when looking at the difference in expectations for the paths of interest rate and inflation over the relevant monetary policy horizon
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
768
more recent price indicators confirm the downward trend in consumer inflation in february
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
628
it is important to also highlight that, for the committee, the mentioned exchange rate depreciation is a source of inflationary pressure in shorter 5 periods
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,013
764
the latest inflation readings were higher than expected, and the committee raised its projection for the remaining months of this revision was due to continuing food and industrial price increases which, in turn, are a consequence of a persistent exchange rate depreciation, the oil price rise, and the income transfer programs
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
545
this figure results from a model of endogenous determination, which takes into account seasonal components, the exchange rate behavior, market prices inflation and the igp change; e. however, general price indices have shown relatively higher rates
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
340
although estimates of this rate involve a high degree of uncertainty, the committee members expressed the with regard to underlying inflation, in recent view that the current ex-ante real interest rates provide months its various measures have risen from levels stimulus to the economy
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
742
for semi- and non-durable consumer goods, the seasonally adjusted quarterly moving average series have posted the highest output level since august 2003, when these sectors resumed growth
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
30
recent data on consumption recorded negative rates for japan and also for the euro area
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
657
in this sense, lower volatility in the exchange rate tends to minimize such a defensive behavior
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
241
in fact, 305 thousand jobs were created in april and 962 thousand in the year through april
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
324
the fecomercio-sp survey pointed to a recovery of consumer confidence in may, after three consecutive monthly falls
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,004
725
these conduct of monetary policy will continue to depend on effects may be mitigated by the level of economic slack the evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and by inflation expectations anchored around the the structural interest rate of the economy, with the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy widespread benefits for society
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
449
economic activity continues to expand, but at a slower pace and more in line with supply conditions, so as not to result in significant inflationary pressures
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,005
407
in contrast, the central bank of indonesia increased its basic interest rate
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
53
monetary policy guidelines positive expectations regarding the brazils economic performance in 2001 and 2002 contributed to the appreciation of the real as well as to the reduction in brazils risk
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
200
high unemployment rates for a long period, coupled with the implementation of fiscal adjustments, the limited space for countercyclical actions and political uncertainties are translated into projections of low growth for mature economies
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
97
in emerging economies from southeast asia, that are more dependent upon exports, local central banks have performed cuts in their policy rates in an attempt to mitigate the impact that the negative expectations about the worldwide economy have over their local industrial production
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
150
the recovery in the euro area is uncertain, besides being slow and uneven across its economies, partly due to the fiscal consolidation and the difficulties experienced by the credit market
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
194
it bears emphasizing the acceleration of industrial prices, which began in the second half of 2007 and seems to have intensified lately
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
747
out of the items related to the current situation, demand level, mainly domestic, and current situation of business continue to present favorable evaluation
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
310
however, in some emerging countries, exchange-rate depreciation prevents further price reductions and limits the actions of their central banks
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
7
in these economies, where inflation does not constitute relevant risk in the short- and medium-term, monetary authorities have kept interest rates unchanged
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
805
a stronger deceleration in the united states economy tends to generate a more favorable trend for interest rates and petroleum prices
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,001
390
specifically, the us economy seems to have entered a process of economic stagnation since the last quarter of 2007, and still suffers the impact of the crisis in the real estate sector, with spillover effects on the labor market, whose weakening, in combination with higher oil prices, affects consumer confidence, contributing importantly to depress consumption
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
245
regarding wholesale inflation, a deceleration is also expected as anticipated by the results of the igp-10 and the first ten-day period of the igp-m, notwithstanding the continuity of specific adjustments due to increases in international commodity prices
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,004
18
this is not unexpected, considering the relatively small share of the external sector on the brazilian gdp
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
341
the committee perceives the need to maintain a still contractionary monetary policy in the relevant horizon to consolidate the inflation convergence to the target and the anchoring of expectations
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
286
despite the recent reduction, driven by items which are more volatile and affected by tax measures, consumer inflation remains high
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
461
the committee noted with particular concern the deterioration in longer-term inflation expectations
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
656
these elements contribute to the debate on the nature of inflationary pressures and, potentially, on the pace of monetary easing to be adopted by advanced economies
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
363
in short, since the end of 2007, inflation has diverged from the targets path
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
940
on its turn, the external sector contribution to a favorable inflationary scenario, in light of the strong rhythm of domestic demand expansion, of global inflationary pressures, as well as depreciation in the prices of brazilian assets, have become less effective, at a moment when the effects of investment over the productive capacity of the economy still need to consolidate
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
649
as in the previous month, the bcb decided not to rollover the fx debt and swaps maturing on february 11th
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,004
15
this difference can be explained by the low volume of public offerings and also the interest rate variation in the month
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
342
following presentation of the central scenario, simulations were performed using economic models based on alternative scenarios
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
798
the monthly result reflected acceleration in market and regulated prices
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
873
on the other hand, the copom highlights that the significant monetary policy easing process that has been implemented since january, will have cumulative effects over the economy and will be evidenced after some time lag
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
123
the recent behavior of inflation confirms copoms perception of a low degree of inertia built into the process of domestic price formation
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
906
regarding the external component of the aggregate demand, the main scenario anticipates a more benign trajectory than that registered in recent years
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,013
722
in december, the manufacturing pmi grew to 55.2, the highest value since july 2006, when it had recorded 55.in china, economic activity remains sound, with exports growing in a steady way, boosted by the high in the sales destined the to euro zone
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
110
the committee also highlights evidences of accommodation of international commodities prices
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
31
the average level of exchange for october and november was adjusted in light of the recent depreciation of the real
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
664
in this debate, a divergence was observed in the committee concerning the degree of signaling regarding the next steps
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
720
however, the members of the copom target over the relevant horizon for monetary policy
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
521
finally, pressures persist in volatile components such as food and fuel prices and especially electricity fares, due to factors including the exchange rate, commodity prices, and adverse weather conditions
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
175
the copom also considers that the increase in the supply of external savings and the reduction of its funding cost have contributed to the reduction of the domestic interest rates, including the neutral rate, which, according to the committees assessment, are largely permanent developments
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
392
the deceleration of market prices inflation was disseminated in both food and non-food prices
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
817
the process of approval and implementation of 4 the necessary adjustments in the economy, extended consumer price index
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
953
external shocks should be tackled only in the the committee reiterates that economic secondary impact they may have on prospective conditions prescribe accommodative monetary inflation
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
328
regarding the factors market, as anticipated by previous minutes, the copom observes that the idleness margin in the labor market has increased at a faster pace, with data confirming the acceleration of a process of distension in this market
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
126
furthermore, the war in ukraine impacts the supply of natural gas, thus bringing additional uncertainty to the european economic scenario, whereas, in china, the deterioration of the real estate sector, coupled with the policy to fight covid-19, negatively impact the countrys growth prospects
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
4
however, the industrial activity continues to be influenced by the international crisis, due to its effects both over exports and credit conditions, and over business and households expectations
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
889
in europe, business sentiment also improved
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
989
on the one hand, there are the episodes involving the banking sector and the consequent need to provide liquidity
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
726
emphasizes that the next steps in the conduct of monetary policy will continue to depend on the the copom reiterates its view that the continuity of evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and reforms and necessary adjustments in the brazilian on inflation projections and expectations
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
414
copoms inflation projections have been reduced, especially in the relevant scenario, to a large extent due to lower inflation expectations
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
965
committee members judge that these shocks agreed that the balance of risks is symmetric
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
661
the projection for the spreads over the selic rate, on the benchmark scenario, based on the 360day swap rates estimates a 173 bps spread in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 106 bps in the last quarter of the identified shocks and their impacts were reassessed according to newly available information
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
9
the boe increased it assets acquisition program by 75 billion, to 275 billion, and the boj extended the deadline to the adhesion and the effective period of easing of eligibility conditions for the participation in the program of funds provision to the institutions located in calamitous areas
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
197
the december ipca reflected pressures on both market and regulated prices
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,005
435
notes revised by the board
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,001
553
the committee judges that this decision reflects its baseline scenario for prospective inflation and the associated balance of risks, and it is consistent with convergence of inflation to target over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy, which includes 2020 and, to a lesser extent, the copom reiterates that economic conditions prescribe stimulative monetary policy, i.e., interest rates below the structural level
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
887
in this environment, there have been signs of reduction in risk aversion, but confidence recovery remains fragile and subject to reversals
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
160
however, in general, consumer confidence remained weak due to the labor market conditions in the respective countries
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
637
this strategy takes into consideration the lags in the transmission mechanisms and has been the most adequate to deal with the uncertainty inherent to the process of monetary policy formulation
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,007
950
in light of the above, considering the balance of risks to inflation, the recovery in domestic activity and the complexity involved in the international environment, the committee believes that the stability of monetary conditions for a sufficiently long period of time is the most appropriate strategy to ensure the convergence of inflation toward the target, even in a non-linear way
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
799
the manufacturing industry showed positive balance of 74.6 thousand jobs, the seventh consecutive month of expansion and the best result of the series for the month
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
88
the transportation group was the main responsible for deceleration of the index in june, with a contribution of 0.24 p.p., compared to -0.12 p.p
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
487