Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

central_bank_of_brazil

sentences stringlengths 21 506	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
regarding the supply side, the committee evaluates that, in the longer term, more favorable prospects for the competitiveness of industry and agriculture have emerged; the services sector, on its turn, tends to grow at rates lower than those recorded over the recent years	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	705
although the current monetary policy decision brings the selic interest rate close to a level that, according to the copoms opinion, will promote inflation convergence to the target path, the copom recognizes that it is still not possible to assume, with this decision, the conclusion of the adjustment process initiated in september	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,005	921
nuci also grew 1.4 p.p	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	158
however, the discussion brought elements that would allow to see a mitigation of the anticipated activity slowdown in the coming months, due to the increase in household income, as a result of the rise in the minimum wage, social benefits, and the more resilient labor market	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	654
the component relative to current conditions fell by 0.3 point compared to the previous month, while that relative to expectations increased by 0.1 point	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	822
following the july and august supply shocks when inflation neared three percentage points in the two month period, the september and october results point to a rapid downturn and an accumulated rate of just 0.4 percentage points in the period	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	43
in important emerging economies, however, the activity pace has not matched the expectations, despite the resilience of domestic demand	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	189
second, it is conditional that the financial system is resilient to the credit risk on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations, arising from the current pandemic	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	869
the copom inflation forecast for the same period is below this figure	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	987
in the ie and 0.4 p.p	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,008	467
consumer credit, that was displaying growing rates until october, recorded stability in november	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	257
under the inflation-targeting regime, the copom guides its decisions according to projected inflation, the analysis of several alternative scenarios for the evolution of the main variables that determine the forwardlooking dynamics for prices, and the balance of risks associated to the projections	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	658
important emerging economies 4 experience a transition period, and therefore, of moderation in the activity pace, despite the resilience of the domestic demand	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	754
in addition, it bears emphasizing the elevation of the twelve-month trailing average tenure of real estate financing and vehicles acquisition operations, which reached 1909 days and 577 days, up from 1445 days and 524 days, respectively	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	632
no significant change occurred in the prospective scenario for the output gap, but a deeper debate took place about the effects of a possible greater-than- projected credit tightening on economic activity	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	426
there is no mechanical relationship, however, between the global outlook and monetary policy	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,016	288
parallel to this, since fuel increases occurred in the second half of july, part of the impact will still be felt in terms of august inflation	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,000	70
in the short run, inflation should reflect significant temporary upward pressures stemming from the halt in the transportation sector and from other relative price changes	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	167
the effects of these stimuli, however, are counterbalanced by the effects of the reversal of substantial share of the initiatives taken during the recent international financial crisis, by those referring to the significant worsening of the global economy prospects and especially by those stemming from the monetary policy stance change	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	102
price increases are more widespread and also include items more associated with core inflation	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	250
the the copoms inflation projections in the scenario members concluded that the process of economic with interest rate and exchange rate paths extracted recovery came to a halt in the past quarters	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	832
on the other hand, neither has the situation in the interbank markets of the mature economies reached normality, nor have the developments of this crisis over real economy completely materialized	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	916
as the recovery advances, consumption growth should give way to resumption in investment	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	763
lft placements with a total value of r 13.5 billion were held on four different occasions, while redemptions added up to r 18.5 billion	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,000	84
notably, it might contribute to additional disinflation is widespread and includes ipca reductions of inflation expectations and components that are most sensitive to the inflation in other sectors of the economy	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	295
the production of agricultural equipment in the last few years has improved with the continuous expansion in grain crops, as well as other agricultural products, a _information for unrestricted disclosure	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	125
the current context, characterized by a stage in which the disinflationary process tends to be slower, further deanchoring of inflation expectations, and a challenging global outlook, requires serenity and moderation in the conduct of monetary policy	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	845
the process of rebalancing the consumption basket, and, consequently, relative prices, between goods and services continues, with moderation in the consumption of goods in favor of greater demand in the services segment	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	191
still in the subject, copom reaffirmed that there is no mechanical relationship between the conduct of the u.s. monetary policy and the determination of the domestic policy interest rate, and that, as usual, it will focus on the transmission mechanisms from the external environment into the domestic inflationary dynamics	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	617
recent indicators show a worse composition	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,021	64
one can notice an impact in recent data regarding both the composition of new household credit operations and the moderate increase in the delinquency rate, partly related to the behavior of the real disposable income, which suggests some reduction	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	709
copom recalls that there is no mechanical relationship between the conduct of the u.s. monetary policy and the determination of the domestic policy interest rate, and that it will focus on the transmission mechanisms from the external environment to the domestic inflationary dynamics	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	247
the committee reiterates that its reaction to possible changes in relative prices, such as in food and possible adjustments of electric power tariffs and fuel prices, will be symmetric, that is to say, monetary policy will follow the same principles in face of both inflationary and disinflationary supply shocks	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	434
this highly adverse price shock has shown that it will be with us for some time to come and the probability of new highs will increase as winter in the northern hemisphere approaches	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,000	362
the committee will continue to reassess the estimates of this rate over time	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	215
in the intermediate goods and of 0.6 p.p	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	879
still regarding international financial markets, the copom highlights moderation in the dynamics of commodities prices	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	985
the three categories basic, semimanufactured and manufactured registered record exports	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	652
from january to may, the trade balance registered a surplus of us 601 million, reducing the accumulated 12 month deficit to us 132 million	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	316
the brl exchange rate has shown volatility in the period, reflecting the various changes in the domestic and international scenarios	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	489
the average tenure on non-earmarked credit operations decreased in october, reaching 456 days, down from 458 days in september	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	89
the future behavior of industrial production recovery, which should not be uniform over time, will depend on these factors, as well as on the gradual recovery of consumer and businessmen confidence, counterbalancing the deterioration of external demand	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	977
the committee stresses that the growing uncertainty of the current scenario, coupled with the advanced stage of the current monetary policy cycle, and its impacts yet to be observed, require additional caution in its actions	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	199
additionally, the committee believes that this improvement in the perception will be boosted by the ongoing process of reassessment of the economic activity pace, both domestic and external, in this and in the upcoming semesters	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	277
moreover, copom stressed that it will continue incorporating labor market data into the analysis with no mechanical or definitive view about any impacts or relationships whatsoever	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	878
the delinquency rate on non-earmarked bank credits increased 0.6 p.p	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	789
exports of sectors with higher capacity utilization level, such as metallurgy and paper and pulp, fell compared to june 2000, offset by increased exports of meat and soybeans	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	408
to a great extent, this was due to expanded sales of items of greater unit value with the added stimulus of an increasingly greater flow of credit	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	865
in the beginning of december, the central bank resumed the purchase of foreign currency	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,004	148
in the metallic commodities market, the retreats in prices continue to be explained by the uncertainties regarding the chinese demand and by the us dollar valuation, more recently deepened by the prospect of decreasing the monetary stimuli in the us	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	894
inflation has remained at moderate levels in the us and in the euro zone, and in japan, deflation is still recorded	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	37
in each segment, offset by the negative contributions of -0.08 p.p	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	776
besides, the lower liquidity of the sovereign securities markets increases risk perception and demand monitoring	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	380
the committee noticed that the median of growth forecasts in the focus survey is appreciably more optimistic than those of its baseline scenario and pondered whether the difficulties related to seasonal adjustments due to the pandemic shock would explain this divergence	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	851
the committee members reaffirmed the understanding that, with anchored inflation expectations, with inflation forecasts a little below target for 2018 and with the high level of economic slack, the copoms baseline scenario prescribes continuation of the monetary easing cycle	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	697
as a result of the global recession outlook, energy and commodities prices have remained low, which resulted in significant reductions in inflation rates	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	814
the inflation trajectory has clearly reflected productivity gains and upward movement in the value of the dollar against the euro and the yen	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	904
a more accentuated reduction in capacity utilization may be reflecting the lagged reaction of employment to the pace of economic activity and the effect of the energy crisis	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,001	252
in particular, they reiterated the importance of insisting on communicating that there is no mechanical relationship between recent shocks and the conduct of monetary policy	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	929
although the accommodation observed in the last two quarters has been more intense than the expected at the start of the year, as evidenced, among others, by data on inventories and industrial production, the prospects for the evolution of domestic economic activity remain favorable	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	611
prospectively, the unpredictability associated with the pandemic evolution and the necessary adjustment in government spending from 2021 onwards increases the uncertainty about the maintenance of the economic activity recovery	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	500
gdp may close the first quarter of 2003 roughly stable in comparison to the previous quarter	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,003	163
however, most of the committee members judged that this interpretation still seems premature and needs further corroboration by data	irrelevant	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	280
the committee understands that the effects of the complexity surrounding the international environment added up to those stemming from the moderation of domestic activity	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	942
the sovereign risk premium reached a level as high as 1,800 basis-points in the weeks before the elections of october 14th	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	596
a few recent indicators have been interpreted as evidence that a more pronounced deceleration is progressing in a spontaneous fashion, despite the fact that it is difficult to identify turning points in volatile series, such as the ones regarding the level of economic activity	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,004	604
data from cni and from the federation of industries of so paulo state fiesp confirm a continuous expansion in the level of employment and in the real payroll in the manufacturing industry	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	217
the improved prospects for the domestic economy accentuated the demand for fixed rate securities	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,001	395
the spread for the third quarter of 2013 is 54 bps	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	997
this premium is dynamic and tends to be relevant monetary policy horizon, which currently larger in brazil, given the countrys relative fiscal includes 2021 and, to a lesser extent, this fragility and the uncertainties regarding its prospective information on inflation would be considered fiscal path	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	475
this reduction, however, can be attenuated by the substitution of domestic supply by imported goods	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,001	203
in the case of this trend persisting, the prospects for inflation may show additional decline, since the risk of the passthrough of the exchange rate depreciation accumulated this year to next years inflation also declines	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,002	850
inflation remains at moderate or low levels in the advanced economies; and, in the emerging ones, it stands at higher levels	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	963
regarding regulated prices, in addition to the price increases of gasoline and alcohol-fuel, there were residual effects of the increases in electricity, fixed telephone prices, and urban buses fares that had already pressured the ipca in july	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	982
the 62.4 result, in a scale ranging from 0 to 100, reflected greater optimism of businessmen in relation to both current conditions and next six months expectations	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	445
apparently, the perception of systemic risk resurfaced, fueled by the view that there would be interdependence between a possible fiscal consolidation in economies that are facing difficulties in this area and the balance sheets of financial institutions	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	507
the trend of reduction in the idle capacity is the result of economic activity expansion, not totally offset by the maturity of investment projects	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	645
the committee judges that the current scenario demands patience and serenity in the conduct of monetary policy	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,023	196
the international liquidity contraction has been contributing to a deleverage process by asset managers, which in turn has been pressuring down the prices of financial assets	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	708
however, the monetary authority restates that a more active policy stance will be adopted if the projected inflation deviates from the targets, due to an eventual deterioration of the factors that were responsible for the recent increase in inflation projections for 2004 and even with a deteriorated inflationary environment, and the respective change in the required monetary policy stance, there are no reasons to review economic growth expectations	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,004	785
devaluation of the euro and sharp oil price increases are the factors that have created the greatest pressure on prices	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,000	423
retail sales performance reflects the continuity of payroll growth and better credit conditions, together with the impacts of social programs and the recovery of the agricultural sector	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	683
the copom evaluates that the loss of domestic demand dynamism should result in the reduction of inflationary pressures	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	415
together gasoline and alcohol-based fuel contributed 0.20 p.p	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,003	895
in this sense, the minority of the copom members argued that the activity recovery tends to be supported by monetary, fiscal and credit impulses already introduced in the economy	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	693
resilience of the economic activity in the first quarter was discussed, but the committees view remains that growth was driven by the agricultural sector and that the other sectors should show modest growth throughout as for services inflation and core inflation a slow deceleration movement is observed, in line with the non-linear process anticipated by the committee	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	993
europe is showing signs of a significant economic the copom stresses that the continuation of reforms slowdown and uncertainty drivers can contribute to even and necessary adjustments in the brazilian economy is slower global growth	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	781
the copom emphasizes that the main challenge of monetary policy in such context is to ensure that the favorable results obtained over the last years are preserved	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,009	400
however, for the committee, after a necessary period of adjustments, which has been more intense and longer than anticipated, as companies and households confidence strengthen, the activity pace tends to intensify	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	132
they assessed that those measures are at appropriate or comfortable levels, and that inflation projections indicate a convergence of inflation to target over the course of 2019 and this path is consistent with inflation expectations, which remain anchored	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	55
the recovery remains low in europe, due to the lack of reaction of the domestic demand components in the region, especially in germany	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	981
in the first nine months of the year, employment reached 2,086.6 thousand new jobs	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	847
it is necessary to monitor possible impacts of higher uncertainty on the prospective path of inflation	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	193
the twelve-month inflation projection for the first quarter of 2024, in the scenario using the interest rate trajectory extracted from the focus survey, remains consistent with the strategy of inflation convergence to around the target over the relevant horizon	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	696
rise in the adjusted inflation target for 2003, according to the methodology described in the open letter of the governor of the banco central do brasil to the ministry of finance of january 21, however, the copom considers it premature to modify the adjusted target at this time due to the high volatility of international oil prices, and believes it is preferable to wait for more information about the adjustments that could affect regulated prices	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,003	431
in specific cases, changes in the growth pattern are anticipated, a development that tends to be permanent	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	620
during the coming months, credit growth and payroll expansion should continue to bolster economic activity	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	660
on the other hand, the increase of geopolitical tensions in syria and egypt translated into upward pressure for the oil prices	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	388
moreover, formal jobs creation remains at strong levels and there is still a high proportion of voluntary layoffs	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	177
at the present time, inflation expectations ipca for 2000 have moved below the mark of 6.5, though they are still above the target	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,000	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/central_bank_of_brazil

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Central Bank of Brazil.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The central_bank_of_brazil dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}