Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_brazil

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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the committee also highlights that the speed of materialization of the aforementioned changes and their resulting gains depend on the strengthening of companies and households confidence
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
134
the copom considers that this process shall be intensified and, therefore, the signs of the persistent mismatch between the pace of aggregate demand and supply expansion shall be reverted, because they tend to increase the risk for the inflationary dynamics
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
522
the committee unanimously decided to interrupt the easing cycle, highlighting that the uncertain global scenario and the domestic scenario, marked by resilient economic activity, an increase in its own inflation projections and deanchored expectations, require greater caution
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
422
once it had been incorporated into the different forecasting estimates available to copom, the new information contained in more recent price indicators resulted in a downward revision of the expected 2000 inflation figures
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,000
239
in this discussion, it was again emphasized that the net effect of the conduct of fiscal policy on inflation is very dependent on the prevailing macroeconomic and financial conditions
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
996
for the prospective scenario, copom discussed more thoroughly the determinants of services inflation
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
146
in particular, they highlighted possible implications of the current scenario for the sensitivity of inflation especially in the service sector - to the level of economic slack, as well as for inflation dynamics in particular its inertial component
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
218
the outlook remains uncertain, however, and risks of a more pronounced slowdown in global growth persist
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
290
at the end of june, the output levels of durable goods, capital and semi and nondurable goods were still well below the most recent peak in this series
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
783
the performance of consumer prices in the month of february demonstrated that the seasonal pressures generated by in natura foodstuffs and education outlays evident in the previous month had been dissipated
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
473
another possibility, albeit with lower impact on short-term changes, would be a higher neutral interest rate
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
315
core inflation is also declining
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
815
in the emerging economies, the activity pace has been revised downwards, with highlight for the loss of strength in china
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
909
in this sense, recent indicators suggest relative deceleration in the growth paces in the us and china, while the consumer annualized quarterly change recorded negative rates in japan and in the euro area, and cooling in the us
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
934
on the one hand, manufacturing output fell
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,003
402
the ample liquidity in the financial markets, the upgrade of the greece sovereign bonds and the perception that, if necessary, the authorities will continue to act in a coordinated way to enlarge the monetary policies easing stances have supported the recovery of confidence, favoring the valuation of assets and the retreat of the sovereign risk in the most vulnerable economies in the euro zone
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
510
the provision of new funding for these two programs and for the loan support program, scheduled for the next 15 months, exceeds 50 trillion
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
732
however, it bears highlighting oil prices volatility, a result of low predictability of some global demand components, of dependency of supply growth on the maturity pace of risky investment projects and of geopolitical complexity that is typical to the sector
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
26
prices in august, the adjustment of the administered prices continued to exert pressure on the main inflation indices, albeit at a lower intensity, thus contributing to lower monthly changes as compared to july
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
39
the combination of such that the economy continued to show signs of factors recommended waiting until the next regarding the global outlook, the committee path for regulated prices and its effects on the members pointed out the risks associated with the prospective scenario for inflation
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,016
86
in short, the set of available data indicates a heated labor market, although with some signs of moderation at the margin
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
47
the copom judges that, since the adoption of the forward guidance, inflation expectations reverted their declining trend relative to the target for the relevant horizon
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
807
there are signs of increased credit granting in some lines and reduction in current interest rates on new operations, also helped by an incipient growing appetite of financial institutions to offer credit in some lines
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
957
renewed growth in industrial production coupled with expanded exports of manufactured goods are the factors that explain the 22.5 growth under imports of raw materials and intermediate goods
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
903
the bcb also carried out 17 repos in the period, fifteen of which were overnight borrowings, one with a two-working-day tenure and another with an overnight lending
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
526
positive growth was observed solely in the production of capital goods
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
933
the copom discussed the limitations on the use of this instrument in the committee then assessed the appropriate emerging countries
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
454
compared to july 2011, the rate also increased 0.2 p.p
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
606
the copom emphasizes that the monetary easing process will continue to depend on the evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, possible reassessments of the extension of the cycle, and on inflation projections and expectations
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
941
for 2014, in both scenarios, the inflation forecast is slightly above the midpoint inflation target
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,013
298
for 2012, the projections increased in both the benchmark and the market scenarios, and stand above the midpoint of the target in both scenarios
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
702
the dynamism of activity should also be benefited by the easing of financial conditions, favored, among other factors, by the policies of official banks
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
142
the fed recognized that, although the interbank market functioning has improved, there are relevant difficulties in other markets, and credit conditions became more restrictive, in general
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
273
by benign environment for prospective inflation, with reducing fundamental uncertainties about the brazilian anchored expectations
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
943
copom assesses that there is a possibility of reversion, even if partial, of the increase in international commodities measured in local currency
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
223
the copom believes that the current economic conditions continue to recommend an unusually strong monetary stimulus, but it recognizes that, due to prudential and financial stability reasons, the remaining space for monetary policy stimulus, if it exists, should be small
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
154
in march, inflation measured by the main price indices will continue to fall although it will remain at high levels compared to the average for this month in previous years
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,003
103
there was a unanimous conclusion on the need for an even more cautious monetary policy and a diligent monitoring of the unfolding scenario
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
724
in the global economy, a scenario of low growth prospects in important advanced economies prevail, notably in the euro zone, and volatility indicators have responded to the prospects of monetary policy change in the us
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
369
other members emphasized the volatile nature of these prices in an environment of pressured inventories
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
502
thus, the committee continues to assess that the commitment and determination of central banks to reduce inflationary pressures and anchor expectations consolidate a global scenario of longer tightening of financial conditions, with interest rates at the end of the tightening cycle maintained for a sufficiently long period at contractionary levels, raising the risk of a more pronounced global deceleration
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
44
country specific indicators relative to july and august and entrepreneurs perception, translated into the fall in confidence indicators of the three major economies in the region germany, italy and france-, suggest the maintenance of this trend in the next quarter
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,001
532
the committee considers that, in part, such regulatory changes should materialize as an element of aggregate demand constraint through the credit channel, as well as by the reduction of incentives to the adoption of strategies such as the simple broadening of contract tenures, among others
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
106
in this context, an towards target over the relevant horizon and the risks additional monetary stimulus would mitigate this risk
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
558
considering industrial segments, only pharmaceuticals and veterinary products expanded, 3.6 p.p., year-over-year
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
259
the copom also understands that the preservation of benign inflationary prospects will demand that the economy and financial system behavior under a different interest rate level should be closely monitored
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
616
investment indicators have expanded in recent months, particularly under capital goods output
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
114
considering the long history of the brazilian economy operating with the reference interest rate at a very high level, the unprecedented low interest rates may compromise the performance of some markets and economic sectors, with potential impact on financial intermediation
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
795
copom members discussed the evolution of economic activity in light of the available information the copoms inflation projections in the scenario and indicators
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,019
338
the shocks identified are practically the same as those delineated at the previous copom meeting
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
155
at this moment, the copoms baseline scenario indicates that a partial normalization of the policy rate remains appropriate to keep some degree of monetary stimulus during the economic recovery
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
186
regarding inflation, the committee members mentioned results that printed above expectations in the short term, and the increase in projections for in this sense, they reasoned that the ongoing disinflation process has been evolving at a speed that is below the one pursued by the committee
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,016
222
overall, the committee assessed that the updated activity projections are in fact stronger for the year
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
162
such distortions are not completely eliminated by usual seasonally adjusted methods
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
862
money market and open market operations over the past weeks, there has been high volatility in the yield curves
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
87
nevertheless, the deterioration of agents expectations indicates the possibility of greater pressure for passthrough in the future
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,001
569
for housing credits, despite the demand at levels higher than those observed from july to september 2012, the expected approval of new lines tends to be similar to the previous quarter
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
164
the labor market remains resilient but with some moderation at the margin
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
90
the analysis of the items incorporated into the calculation of the core inflation in july points out to a pressure on prices, distributed among various categories of products
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
843
the copom evaluates that the persistence of a cautious monetary policy stance has been critical to increase the probability that inflation will continue to evolve according to the targets path
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
945
gdp data for the fourth quarter of 2007 recorded deceleration in the euro area and growth in japan, although recent indicators signaled economic cooling in the latter
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
775
in recife and belo horizonte, figures were stable
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
762
this reflects the impact of both the international scenario and the energy crisis on expectations and domestic economy
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,001
354
eastern asian economies, which tend to present high dependence on both american and japanese demand, are searching for measures to countervail external sector retraction, with china and south korea featuring as the most successful
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,001
748
the overall average tenure on credit operations reached 94 months in july, representing increases of 0.4 month, month-on-month, and 13.8 months, year-over-year
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
29
financial system credit indicators still do not clearly suggest cooling in activity level
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
840
considering that there is a strong possibility that inflation deviates from the targets, monetary policy should act preemptively
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,004
544
it shall be stressed that the yen has shown appreciating trend vis-a-vis the american dollar inasmuch as the perspectives for longer deceleration in us become more evident
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,001
287
the effects of these stimuli, however, counter the effects of the reversal of substantial share of the initiatives taken during the recent international financial crisis, and a possible deepening of the fiscal crisis that several european countries face
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
727
however, between copoms meetings, relevant questionings arose regarding the future of the current fiscal framework, resulting in higher risk premia
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
703
finally, the committee debated the extension of the monetary policy adjustments cycle in an uncertain global outlook
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
626
the committee understands that, for a given estimate of the length of the monetary easing cycle, the pace of easing depends on the stage of the cycle, without necessarily reflecting changes in the committees baseline scenario or in the balance of risks
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
446
however, a reduction in the participation rate was observed
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
207
business and consumer expectations decreased in september
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
466
the index relative to the services sector reached 50.2 in september, which was still regarded as insufficient to indicate a consistent reversal of trend
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
605
high unemployment rates in europe, coupled with the efforts of fiscal consolidation and political uncertainties, are translated into investments decline and low growth
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
75
the copom notes that the main inflation scenario considers the materialization of the assumed trajectories regarding fiscal variables
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
16
the volatility that has marked the major asset markets of the industrial countries obviously generates repercussions that affect perceptions of country risk and, consequently, the exchange rate trajectory
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,000
428
the risks are likely to persist as long as a tight labor market is observed in several advanced economies
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
98
regardless of how these aspects of the international outlook evolve, the copom reaffirms that the main challenge of monetary policy is to ensure that the favorable results obtained over the last years are preserved
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,010
960
by the way, despite the weakness of investment, which reflects, largely, the increased uncertainties and the slow recovery of confidence, domestic demand will continue to be driven by the lagged effects of monetary policy actions recently implemented, as well as by the moderate expansion of credit supply, both for individuals and corporate
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
485
on the other hand, the committee notes that the fragile international scenario represents an important factor restraining aggregate demand
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
538
these estimates naturally and subsequent years
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,017
572
however, the brazilian economy remains sound and shows greater resilience to face the international markets turmoil
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,007
61
the tenure related to individuals and corporate segments increased four and twenty-one days, respectively, reaching 620 and 432 days, in the order
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
689
moreover, it bears noticing that the accommodation of commodities prices, whose more consistent evidence appeared in the last weeks, could contribute to avoid that inflationary pressures intensify even more
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
615
finally, on the balance of risks, the committee assesses that uncertainty about the final design of the fiscal framework is residual
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
976
the scenario marked by a sound u.s. economy and resilient inflation permeates the debate on the sources, challenges, and uncertainties for the future disinflationary process in that country
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
260
the m3 monetary aggregate increased by 5.7 in january, surpassing the reference rate of 4.5
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,000
948
over the last few quarters, economic activity data have surprised with higher growth rates in different components of demand
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
518
the committee members expressed the understanding that economic conditions, with anchored inflation expectations, underlying inflation measures running at low levels, inflation forecasts slightly below target for 2018, and high level of economic slack prescribe accommodative monetary policy, i.e., interest rates below the structural level
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
779
nbce were offered on three occasions for purposes of rolling maturing exchange securities
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,000
46
besides these domestic uncertainties, the external scenario remains troublesome
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,001
527
a slower normalization constitutes a downward risk to these projections
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
377
the index behavior reflected, with greater intensity, lower optimism regarding the coming months
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
5
above the average rates registered in the same periods of 2004 and 2005, respectively
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
956
on the other hand, the committee considers that recent initiatives reinforce a scenario for restrained public sector expenditures
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
864
out of the twenty surveyed segments, fifteen decreased, as well as in three out of four use categories
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,004
861
investment expansion and imports growth have contributed to retard this process, limiting potential inflationary effects stemming from aggregate demand sustained growth
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
48
it represents the fourth consecutive monthly increase, and the recent recovery was mainly favored by the greater optimism of consumers regarding the future of economy
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
256