gtfintechlab/bank_of_israel · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 29 857	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
in the narrow forum, which consists of the monetary committee and the directors of the research and market operations departments, the latter two present their recommendations regarding the interest rate.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	265
this month, the expectation that the economic slowdown in the us would continue into 2009 strengthened.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	374
the rise in the index reflects increases in all its components, and in particular a 2.1 percent increase in the index of manufacturing production in the index of trade and services revenue.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	769
the monthly unemployment rate according to trend data was 6.9 percent in april small sample, so that the figures should be treated with caution.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	825
the consumer price index (cpi) for february remained unchanged, in line with forecasts.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	715
however, it was noted that in the past week, the shekel's appreciation has been halted.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	834
members expressed their concern about a negative impact on fiscal credibility as a result of not meeting deficit targets in the coming two years.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,013	417
in the same period the dow jones index rose by 0.8 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,009	730
the number of employee posts, seasonally adjusted, increased by 0.6 percent in the three months march–may compared with the previous three months.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	791
against the background of these developments, the ecb made a surprise cut in the interest rate this month, and the markets are pricing in interest rate cuts in other economies.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	881
services exports increased by 1.4 percent in august.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	752
the imf warned that if greece does not reach an agreement, it would not receive the next tranche in the rescue program, and thus would not be able to make the repayment of €14 billion due in march.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,012	667
these forecasts are based on expectations that the interest rate will be increased.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	880
in contrast, there has been an increase in new mortgage volume and in borrowers’ ltv ratios while the mortgage interest rate has remained stable.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	187
since april, inflation––even excluding the one-off effects resulting from government decisions––has accelerated.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	535
it seems that the markets brought forward by a few months their forecast of the timing of an increase in the interest rate in the us.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	195
the share of unindexed floating rate mortgages granted in december was 26.9 percent.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	356
it was also noted that even at the current level of the interest rate, monetary policy is expansionary, after the reductions in recent months in response to global developments and a slowdown in growth in israel.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	27
the investment houses expect, on average, a rise in interest in the third quarter and further interest rises of up to about 50 basis points by the end of the year, with a probability of 80 percent.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,006	555
at the time of the meeting the 12-month inflation rate stood at 3.5 percent, above the upper limit of the target inflation range of 1-3 percent a year.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,006	995
the risk of default of some european countries as reflected by the high yields on their bonds and by their cds spreads were expressed this month in the downgrading of the sovereign credit rating of major european economies.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	99
in addition, the committee discussed the updated macroeconomic forecast compiled by the research department.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	882
these indicators include the modest rise in the composite state-of-the-economy index (details below), the standstill in exports and the drop in export orders as reflected in the bank of israel's companies survey, the decline in the purchasing managers index and in consumer confidence indices, and the slowdown in tax revenues.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	504
on 19 december the bank of japan announced a 20-basis-point reduction in its interest rate to 0.1 percent, and several other steps intended to ease corporate financing and to increase liquidity in the financial markets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	810
the inflation environment in israel remains low compared to most advanced economies worldwide, but these gaps have narrowed due to the decline in inflation in many countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	452
the shekel appreciated against the background of a surplus in the balance-ofpayments current account that is expected to exceed $ 6 billion in 2006, and foreign investment in israel.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,006	602
after adjusting for the effects of changes in tax rates and non-recurring revenues, tax revenues dropped by about 15 percent in real terms in january–may compared with their level in january–may 2008, the budget proposal for 2009 and 2010 submitted by the government to the knesset raises the deficit ceiling from 1 percent of gdp to 6 percent in 2009, and 5.5 percent in 2010.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	631
nonresidents' activity was mixed, with foreign exchange sales in the beginning of the period and purchases later on.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	410
with regard to home prices, the members said that in recent months stability is apparent.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	321
committee members discussed developments in the exchange rate.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	28
in september they rose by 0.3 percent, after falling by 0.8 percent in august.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,008	951
israel’s risk premium, as measured by the five-year cds spread, increased this month from about 52 basis points to about 63 basis points.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	630
in the middle of january the cbs published its updated estimates of the national accounts for the third quarter of 2010, showing an increase of 4.4 percent in gdp and of 5.1 percent in business sector product (annual rates, seasonally adjusted).	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	898
the nominal wage per employee post in the last three months was the same as in the equivalent period in 2008, but due to inflation this year, the real wage dropped.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	456
leading index of world trade.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,011	447
[1] the tel aviv 25 share price index on 24 june was about 2.6 percent lower than on 24 may.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	499
they also raised their forecasts of inflation during the next 12 months to assessment of inflation in 2009 is 2.3 percent, close to the midpoint of the target range.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	436
until the knesset approves the budget for 2006, government spending follows the law on the absence of an approved budget, whereby monthly expenditure is limited to one twelfth of the previous year's budget.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,006	772
recently published macroeconomic data support the ecb's estimate that the rate of growth in europe in the first quarter of the year will rise.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,006	644
based on revenues and expenditure till now, the domestic deficit in 2008 excluding credit is expected to be below the ceiling of 1.6 percent of gdp set by the government.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,008	213
in contrast, the composite state of the economy index, which increased by 0.2 percent in june, indicates that the economy continues to expand, with stabilization of the growth rate in the second quarter at a similar pace to that of the first quarter of the year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	220
the forecast was lowered due to the slowdown reflected in published data on israel's economy, mainly national accounts figures for the third quarter, and to the expectation of a global slowdown, against the background of the debt crises in europe and their implications, and the forecast slowdown in major emerging markets.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	11
- during the past month, the expansionary policies of major central banks continued, and interest rates in those economies remained near zero.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	806
the forecasters expect, on average, that in the three months january to march 2010 the cpi will rise by a total of between –0.3 percent and +0.2 percent.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	249
the committee members noted that the shekel continues to remain relatively stable against major currencies, despite an appreciation of approximately 2 percent in effective exchange rate terms.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	482
the average real wage per employee post increased by 0.4 percent in the third quarter compared with the second, and the nominal wage by 0.7 percent (both seasonally adjusted).	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	389
in the discussion it was noted that a rise in the inflation environment was evident— inflation in the previous twelve months was 4.2 percent, above the upper limit of the inflation target range, and the rate of price increases in the last six months in annual terms (seasonally adjusted) was even higher.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	746
in the discussion on the global environment, the committee members said that most central banks worldwide continue to adopt very accommodative monetary policy, while in the us, the federal reserve increased the federal funds rate and the expected path of the interest rate rose as well.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,016	121
on 16 february the bank of israel announced that from the following day it would employ an additional instrument of monetary policy, by starting to purchase government bonds on the secondary market, with the intention of strengthening the bank's influence on interest rates for longer terms.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	952
based on forecasters’ projections, inflation is expected to continue to increase in the coming months but to return to the within the target range during 2023.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	231
the composite state of the economy index increased by job vacancy rate, but declines in goods exports and in industrial production were notably negative components.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	129
the bank will use the tools available to it to achieve its objectives of price stability, the encouragement of employment and growth, and support for the stability of the financial system, and in this regard will continue to keep a close watch on developments in the asset markets, including the housing market.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	36
in may, the stock of vacant homes available for sale remained stable at 21,000, after a trend of increase in the past year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	76
within this framework, it appears that growth rates in several countries around the world, even those outside europe, declined.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	41
the forecast was based on the assumption that the war’s direct economic impact reached its peak in the fourth quarter of 2023, and that the war will continue until the end of 2024, but at a decreasing magnitude.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	479
in light of the background conditions presented, all the members of management supported an increase in the interest rate, and the discussion focused on the amount of the increase, and whether it should be accompanied by a macro-prudential step relating to mortgages.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	387
the yield on one-year _makam increased to about 2.2 percent in april, from about 2.0 percent in_ march.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	96
the committee members emphasized that the trust of the markets and the international economic institutions is essential to the stability of the israeli economy, and in order to ensure this trust it is important that the government act to deal with the issues raised in the reports.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	463
at the time of this discussion, the fed was expected to reduce the interest rate at the end of october from its current level of 2 percent.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,008	360
with that, there is growing concern over slower us economic growth and the worsening risks of debt problems in europe and their implications for israel's economy.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	609
employment data also indicate expansion, although wage increases have been moderate.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	618
prior to the interest rate decision for may, the _makam curve reflected_ expectations in the financial markets that the bank of israel interest rate will decline moderately during the next year.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,007	871
it was also decided to narrow the interest rate corridor in the credit window and the commercial banks' deposit window from the bank stressed the following points supporting the reduction in the interest rate for march: - the marked effects of the global crisis and the fall in domestic demand on economic activity in israel; - the bank’s assessment that inflation is on a steep downward path, and is likely to be below the target range in the second half of 2009; - the low interest rates set by the major central banks around the world, and the additional policy instruments used by them to bring about monetary expansion.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	971
as noted, there was a significant dampening of the risk-off atmosphere (risk aversion), which was also reflected in the decline of the vix index to 31 points from about 41 points last month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	82
in the month between the last interest rate decision and the current one there was a marked deterioration in the global financial crisis.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	3
the deficit from the beginning of the year is about nis 2.4 billion greater than the seasonal path consistent with the ministry of finance deficit forecast of 3.4 percent of gdp, but based on forecast growth, revenues over the remainder of the year are expected to be slightly above the seasonal path.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	552
in november, the agreed-upon framework was expanded to communities in the north as well.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	355
the significant decline in the last year in the share of new rental contracts linked to the dollar was noted––these dropped from about 85 percent of all contracts in january 2007 to about 68 percent in october.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	19
the fed continues with its quantitative easing measures.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	551
there were declines in most inflation expectations this month.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	557
in march–june, the rate of increase in the cpi has been consistent with achieving the inflation target, but inflation measured over the preceding decline in energy prices that resumed in the past month, and the appreciation of the shekel, are liable to defer the return of the inflation rate to within the target range.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	468
in india the interest rate was increased (the sixth rise since the beginning of the year), and also in south korea and chile, against the background of increased indications of faster inflation.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	474
with that, the continued decline in investment in residential construction, and the decline in goods and services exports in the second quarter were noted.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	343
there was increased concern this month regarding a significant slowdown in the us economy and in world growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	228
analysis of the responses of all the participating companies shows that in most industries, the increase in activity is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, the exceptions being in the hotel and commerce sectors.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,006	332
the committee discussed the moderating inflation environment and expectations for inflation for the coming year, which are slightly below the midpoint of the inflation target range.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	2
there was an examination of israel’s inflation environment, which despite the april cpi data remains low compared to most advanced economies worldwide.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	166
macro data in the united states continue to be encouraging, the most salient being the rate of growth and the unemployment.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	641
the financial crisis, which began as a result of the collapse of the lower end of the mortgage market, continued to spread.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	484
against this background the bank of japan decided to leave its interest rate unchanged, at the low rate of 0.5 percent.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,008	651
cds spreads for most emerging economies declined at similar rates.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	782
since the previous interest rate decision, the shekel weakened by 1.1 percent against the dollar, and strengthened by 0.6 percent in terms of the nominal effective exchange rate and by 2.2 percent against the euro.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	854
it is worth mentioning that some european macroeconomic data exceeded expectations: unemployment in germany declined slightly to 6.8 percent in december, from 6.9 percent in november.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	902
world financial markets exhibited a positive trend.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	1
the housing market also yielded some encouraging signs of stabilization, although the data are still mixed.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	923
it was expected that the recovery would be a slow one, and that it would be accompanied by a slow process of interest rate increases.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,009	958
in the eurozone too the central bank changed its approach, and tended towards a tighter policy.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	809
in the last twelve months the housing price index increased by 6.5 percent, compared with increases of 5.9 percent in january and 4.5 percent in december.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	180
the yield on one-year _makam went up from an_ average of 4.4 percent in october to an average of 4.5 percent in november.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	874
strong global growth, the rise in inflationary pressures and the more hawkish tone from the federal reserve, have increased expectations that the central banks will raise their interest rates by more than had been factored into the markets up to now.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,006	346
the latest economic data indicate that the slowdown in us economic growth has deepened, specifically in light of the deterioration in the housing market and the weakening of the labor market.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,008	856
in the meantime, the transfer of the sixth aid installment to greece (about €8 billion) was delayed until november, since the greeks have not fulfilled the conditions attached to it (already this year, the deficit/gdp targets have been revised a number of times and as of now greece has not met the conditions for 2012 either).	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	765
excluding the effects of changes in legislation, total tax revenues in january higher, and indirect taxes 22 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	975
the makam yield curve remained unchanged in june after rising by 0.1-0.2 percentage points in may.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	643
however, after several weeks of war, it appears that the economy is in a process of economic recovery in some components of activity.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	800
the output gap and the ending in due course of the effects of the non-recurring price increases that resulted from government actions - the continued gradual recovery in economic activity suggests that the current environment is one of recovery from the recession but there is uncertainty regarding the strength of the recovery in israel, in part because of the uncertainty about the recovery in the global economy.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	188
the nis/$ interest spread stands at 0.25 percentage point.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,006	671
this is a long term process, rooted in the social protests of 2011, that is supported by government policy to reduce the price of imports and enhance competition, and benefits from a tailwind from low inflation in europe, and the relative appreciation of the shekel against european currencies.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	471
although the cpi excluding energy, food, and fruit and vegetables rose by only 1.4 percent over the last year, in july that index rose by 0.9 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	533
the uk, despite positive gdp growth in the last quarter of 2009 and a rise in the consumers' confidence index, also faces the risk of a debt crisis.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	113

in the narrow forum, which consists of the monetary committee and the directors of the research and market operations departments, the latter two present their recommendations regarding the interest rate.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

265

this month, the expectation that the economic slowdown in the us would continue into 2009 strengthened.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,008

374

the rise in the index reflects increases in all its components, and in particular a 2.1 percent increase in the index of manufacturing production in the index of trade and services revenue.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

769

the monthly unemployment rate according to trend data was 6.9 percent in april small sample, so that the figures should be treated with caution.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

825

the consumer price index (cpi) for february remained unchanged, in line with forecasts.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

715

however, it was noted that in the past week, the shekel's appreciation has been halted.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

834

members expressed their concern about a negative impact on fiscal credibility as a result of not meeting deficit targets in the coming two years.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,013

417

in the same period the dow jones index rose by 0.8 percent.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,009

730

the number of employee posts, seasonally adjusted, increased by 0.6 percent in the three months march–may compared with the previous three months.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

791

against the background of these developments, the ecb made a surprise cut in the interest rate this month, and the markets are pricing in interest rate cuts in other economies.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

881

services exports increased by 1.4 percent in august.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

752

the imf warned that if greece does not reach an agreement, it would not receive the next tranche in the rescue program, and thus would not be able to make the repayment of €14 billion due in march.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,012

667

these forecasts are based on expectations that the interest rate will be increased.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

880

in contrast, there has been an increase in new mortgage volume and in borrowers’ ltv ratios while the mortgage interest rate has remained stable.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

187

since april, inflation––even excluding the one-off effects resulting from government decisions––has accelerated.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

535

it seems that the markets brought forward by a few months their forecast of the timing of an increase in the interest rate in the us.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,010

195

the share of unindexed floating rate mortgages granted in december was 26.9 percent.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

356

it was also noted that even at the current level of the interest rate, monetary policy is expansionary, after the reductions in recent months in response to global developments and a slowdown in growth in israel.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

27

the investment houses expect, on average, a rise in interest in the third quarter and further interest rises of up to about 50 basis points by the end of the year, with a probability of 80 percent.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,006

555

at the time of the meeting the 12-month inflation rate stood at 3.5 percent, above the upper limit of the target inflation range of 1-3 percent a year.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,006

995

the risk of default of some european countries as reflected by the high yields on their bonds and by their cds spreads were expressed this month in the downgrading of the sovereign credit rating of major european economies.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

99

in addition, the committee discussed the updated macroeconomic forecast compiled by the research department.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

882

these indicators include the modest rise in the composite state-of-the-economy index (details below), the standstill in exports and the drop in export orders as reflected in the bank of israel's companies survey, the decline in the purchasing managers index and in consumer confidence indices, and the slowdown in tax revenues.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

504

on 19 december the bank of japan announced a 20-basis-point reduction in its interest rate to 0.1 percent, and several other steps intended to ease corporate financing and to increase liquidity in the financial markets.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

810

the inflation environment in israel remains low compared to most advanced economies worldwide, but these gaps have narrowed due to the decline in inflation in many countries.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

452

the shekel appreciated against the background of a surplus in the balance-ofpayments current account that is expected to exceed $ 6 billion in 2006, and foreign investment in israel.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,006

602

after adjusting for the effects of changes in tax rates and non-recurring revenues, tax revenues dropped by about 15 percent in real terms in january–may compared with their level in january–may 2008, the budget proposal for 2009 and 2010 submitted by the government to the knesset raises the deficit ceiling from 1 percent of gdp to 6 percent in 2009, and 5.5 percent in 2010.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

631

nonresidents' activity was mixed, with foreign exchange sales in the beginning of the period and purchases later on.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

410

with regard to home prices, the members said that in recent months stability is apparent.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

321

committee members discussed developments in the exchange rate.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

28

in september they rose by 0.3 percent, after falling by 0.8 percent in august.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,008

951

israel’s risk premium, as measured by the five-year cds spread, increased this month from about 52 basis points to about 63 basis points.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

630

in the middle of january the cbs published its updated estimates of the national accounts for the third quarter of 2010, showing an increase of 4.4 percent in gdp and of 5.1 percent in business sector product (annual rates, seasonally adjusted).

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

898

the nominal wage per employee post in the last three months was the same as in the equivalent period in 2008, but due to inflation this year, the real wage dropped.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

456

leading index of world trade.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,011

447

[1] the tel aviv 25 share price index on 24 june was about 2.6 percent lower than on 24 may.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

499

they also raised their forecasts of inflation during the next 12 months to assessment of inflation in 2009 is 2.3 percent, close to the midpoint of the target range.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,008

436

until the knesset approves the budget for 2006, government spending follows the law on the absence of an approved budget, whereby monthly expenditure is limited to one twelfth of the previous year's budget.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,006

772

recently published macroeconomic data support the ecb's estimate that the rate of growth in europe in the first quarter of the year will rise.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,006

644

based on revenues and expenditure till now, the domestic deficit in 2008 excluding credit is expected to be below the ceiling of 1.6 percent of gdp set by the government.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,008

213

in contrast, the composite state of the economy index, which increased by 0.2 percent in june, indicates that the economy continues to expand, with stabilization of the growth rate in the second quarter at a similar pace to that of the first quarter of the year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

220

the forecast was lowered due to the slowdown reflected in published data on israel's economy, mainly national accounts figures for the third quarter, and to the expectation of a global slowdown, against the background of the debt crises in europe and their implications, and the forecast slowdown in major emerging markets.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

11

- during the past month, the expansionary policies of major central banks continued, and interest rates in those economies remained near zero.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,013

806

the forecasters expect, on average, that in the three months january to march 2010 the cpi will rise by a total of between –0.3 percent and +0.2 percent.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

249

the committee members noted that the shekel continues to remain relatively stable against major currencies, despite an appreciation of approximately 2 percent in effective exchange rate terms.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

482

the average real wage per employee post increased by 0.4 percent in the third quarter compared with the second, and the nominal wage by 0.7 percent (both seasonally adjusted).

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

389

in the discussion it was noted that a rise in the inflation environment was evident— inflation in the previous twelve months was 4.2 percent, above the upper limit of the inflation target range, and the rate of price increases in the last six months in annual terms (seasonally adjusted) was even higher.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

746

in the discussion on the global environment, the committee members said that most central banks worldwide continue to adopt very accommodative monetary policy, while in the us, the federal reserve increased the federal funds rate and the expected path of the interest rate rose as well.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,016

121

on 16 february the bank of israel announced that from the following day it would employ an additional instrument of monetary policy, by starting to purchase government bonds on the secondary market, with the intention of strengthening the bank's influence on interest rates for longer terms.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

952

based on forecasters’ projections, inflation is expected to continue to increase in the coming months but to return to the within the target range during 2023.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

231

the composite state of the economy index increased by job vacancy rate, but declines in goods exports and in industrial production were notably negative components.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

129

the bank will use the tools available to it to achieve its objectives of price stability, the encouragement of employment and growth, and support for the stability of the financial system, and in this regard will continue to keep a close watch on developments in the asset markets, including the housing market.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

36

in may, the stock of vacant homes available for sale remained stable at 21,000, after a trend of increase in the past year.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

76

within this framework, it appears that growth rates in several countries around the world, even those outside europe, declined.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

41

the forecast was based on the assumption that the war’s direct economic impact reached its peak in the fourth quarter of 2023, and that the war will continue until the end of 2024, but at a decreasing magnitude.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

479

in light of the background conditions presented, all the members of management supported an increase in the interest rate, and the discussion focused on the amount of the increase, and whether it should be accompanied by a macro-prudential step relating to mortgages.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

387

the yield on one-year _makam increased to about 2.2 percent in april, from about 2.0 percent in_ march.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

96

the committee members emphasized that the trust of the markets and the international economic institutions is essential to the stability of the israeli economy, and in order to ensure this trust it is important that the government act to deal with the issues raised in the reports.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

463

at the time of this discussion, the fed was expected to reduce the interest rate at the end of october from its current level of 2 percent.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,008

360

with that, there is growing concern over slower us economic growth and the worsening risks of debt problems in europe and their implications for israel's economy.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

609

employment data also indicate expansion, although wage increases have been moderate.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

618

prior to the interest rate decision for may, the _makam curve reflected_ expectations in the financial markets that the bank of israel interest rate will decline moderately during the next year.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,007

871

it was also decided to narrow the interest rate corridor in the credit window and the commercial banks' deposit window from the bank stressed the following points supporting the reduction in the interest rate for march: - the marked effects of the global crisis and the fall in domestic demand on economic activity in israel; - the bank’s assessment that inflation is on a steep downward path, and is likely to be below the target range in the second half of 2009; - the low interest rates set by the major central banks around the world, and the additional policy instruments used by them to bring about monetary expansion.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,009

971

as noted, there was a significant dampening of the risk-off atmosphere (risk aversion), which was also reflected in the decline of the vix index to 31 points from about 41 points last month.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

82

in the month between the last interest rate decision and the current one there was a marked deterioration in the global financial crisis.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

3

the deficit from the beginning of the year is about nis 2.4 billion greater than the seasonal path consistent with the ministry of finance deficit forecast of 3.4 percent of gdp, but based on forecast growth, revenues over the remainder of the year are expected to be slightly above the seasonal path.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

552

in november, the agreed-upon framework was expanded to communities in the north as well.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

355

the significant decline in the last year in the share of new rental contracts linked to the dollar was noted––these dropped from about 85 percent of all contracts in january 2007 to about 68 percent in october.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,007

19

the fed continues with its quantitative easing measures.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

551

there were declines in most inflation expectations this month.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

557

in march–june, the rate of increase in the cpi has been consistent with achieving the inflation target, but inflation measured over the preceding decline in energy prices that resumed in the past month, and the appreciation of the shekel, are liable to defer the return of the inflation rate to within the target range.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

468

in india the interest rate was increased (the sixth rise since the beginning of the year), and also in south korea and chile, against the background of increased indications of faster inflation.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

474

with that, the continued decline in investment in residential construction, and the decline in goods and services exports in the second quarter were noted.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

343

there was increased concern this month regarding a significant slowdown in the us economy and in world growth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

228

analysis of the responses of all the participating companies shows that in most industries, the increase in activity is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, the exceptions being in the hotel and commerce sectors.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,006

332

the committee discussed the moderating inflation environment and expectations for inflation for the coming year, which are slightly below the midpoint of the inflation target range.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

2

there was an examination of israel’s inflation environment, which despite the april cpi data remains low compared to most advanced economies worldwide.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

166

macro data in the united states continue to be encouraging, the most salient being the rate of growth and the unemployment.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

641

the financial crisis, which began as a result of the collapse of the lower end of the mortgage market, continued to spread.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

484

against this background the bank of japan decided to leave its interest rate unchanged, at the low rate of 0.5 percent.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,008

651

cds spreads for most emerging economies declined at similar rates.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

782

since the previous interest rate decision, the shekel weakened by 1.1 percent against the dollar, and strengthened by 0.6 percent in terms of the nominal effective exchange rate and by 2.2 percent against the euro.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

854

it is worth mentioning that some european macroeconomic data exceeded expectations: unemployment in germany declined slightly to 6.8 percent in december, from 6.9 percent in november.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,012

902

world financial markets exhibited a positive trend.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

1

the housing market also yielded some encouraging signs of stabilization, although the data are still mixed.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

923

it was expected that the recovery would be a slow one, and that it would be accompanied by a slow process of interest rate increases.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,009

958

in the eurozone too the central bank changed its approach, and tended towards a tighter policy.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

809

in the last twelve months the housing price index increased by 6.5 percent, compared with increases of 5.9 percent in january and 4.5 percent in december.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

180

the yield on one-year _makam went up from an_ average of 4.4 percent in october to an average of 4.5 percent in november.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,007

874

strong global growth, the rise in inflationary pressures and the more hawkish tone from the federal reserve, have increased expectations that the central banks will raise their interest rates by more than had been factored into the markets up to now.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,006

346

the latest economic data indicate that the slowdown in us economic growth has deepened, specifically in light of the deterioration in the housing market and the weakening of the labor market.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,008

856

in the meantime, the transfer of the sixth aid installment to greece (about €8 billion) was delayed until november, since the greeks have not fulfilled the conditions attached to it (already this year, the deficit/gdp targets have been revised a number of times and as of now greece has not met the conditions for 2012 either).

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

765

excluding the effects of changes in legislation, total tax revenues in january higher, and indirect taxes 22 percent.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

975

the makam yield curve remained unchanged in june after rising by 0.1-0.2 percentage points in may.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,006

643

however, after several weeks of war, it appears that the economy is in a process of economic recovery in some components of activity.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

800

the output gap and the ending in due course of the effects of the non-recurring price increases that resulted from government actions - the continued gradual recovery in economic activity suggests that the current environment is one of recovery from the recession but there is uncertainty regarding the strength of the recovery in israel, in part because of the uncertainty about the recovery in the global economy.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,009

188

the nis/$ interest spread stands at 0.25 percentage point.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,006

671

this is a long term process, rooted in the social protests of 2011, that is supported by government policy to reduce the price of imports and enhance competition, and benefits from a tailwind from low inflation in europe, and the relative appreciation of the shekel against european currencies.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

471

although the cpi excluding energy, food, and fruit and vegetables rose by only 1.4 percent over the last year, in july that index rose by 0.9 percent.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,008

533

the uk, despite positive gdp growth in the last quarter of 2009 and a rise in the consumers' confidence index, also faces the risk of a debt crisis.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

113