Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_israel

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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the government has tools to increase the supply of homes for residence which can act to moderate the increase in home prices without negatively impacting on the level of activity in the industry.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
549
the financial markets reflect expectations that the ecb will raise its interest rate by about half a percentage point by the end of 2008, with similar expectations regarding the bank of england.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
476
the fed forecasts that inflation will remain high in the coming months, but that it will moderate in 2009, in light of the expected economic slowdown and the fact that households’ medium- and long- term inflation expectations have stayed moderate till now.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
663
inflation expectations for two years and longer range between 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent, compared with a range of 2.4–2.5 percent in the previous quarter.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
820
most of the forecasters who updated their reports to the bank of israel after the publication of the august cpi expected the bank to increase the interest rate for october by 25 basis points.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
736
the consumer price index (cpi) for january declined by 0.7 percent, a greater fall than that expected by the bank of israel and greater than the fall predicted by private forecasters of between 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
867
finance division, research department dr ohad bar-efrat, advisor to the governor and head of information and international affairs division the latest real economic data on the us economy indicate considerable weakness: gdp declined by a half a percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2008––a continuation of the significant and widespread fall in economic activity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
32
while transport and communications and construction saw more modest growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
990
nonetheless, some leading central banks are continuing to reduce their use of special instruments of monetary accommodation, and some central banks have started to increase their interest rates..
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
676
inflation expectations for two years and longer increased slightly and currently range between 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
234
a summary view of the economic situation available at the time of the committee’s discussion is presented in the [notice regarding the interest rate decision, which was](https://www.boi.org.il/en/newsandpublications/pressreleases/pages/23-8-21.aspx) ' the narrow-forum discussion the members of the monetary committee participating in the discussion decide on the appropriate rate of interest.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
833
the committee also discussed the updated macroeconomic forecast compiled by the research department.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
892
according to the monetary department's model, some depreciation of the shekel would return inflation to within the range.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,007
472
of israel annual report for 2006, pp.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,007
201
in the discussions of the interest rate for november, one of the participating members of management recommended that the governor increase the interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, and the other three recommended that the governor leave the rate unchanged.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
745
the composite indices for the previous two months were revised downwards––the november index from a rise of 1.1 percent to one of 0.7 percent, and the december index from a rise of 1.2 percent to one of 0.4 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
678
in the month since the previous interest rate discussions, the signs of moderation in the negative trend in economic activity firmed.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
959
at the time of the discussion the fed was expected to make another reduction in the interest rate in its scheduled meeting on 30 january, with further cuts to follow in the course of 2008.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
710
the committee members noted that certain factors can delay the return of inflation to the target at this time, including (1) the decline in oil prices—in recent days there was a decline, and if it continues it is likely to slow inflation, and (2) increased competition—competition has been enhanced, among other reasons, because online purchases of consumer goods have expanded markedly in the past decade.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
159
the gap between the yields on unindexed shekel bonds and us 10-year bonds widened during the last month from 50 to 60 basis points.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
368
they also emphasized that the committee has a variety of tools to expand monetary accommodation if necessary.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
185
purchasing managers indices for advanced and developing economies increased, with the index for developing economies in an environment indicating economic expansion, but in advanced economies the index still indicates slowing in the pace of activity.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
728
the greater uncertainty resulted from the outbreak of the debt crisis in greece and fears that it would spread to other countries in europe.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
735
the budget deficit in 2007 is expected to be below the ceiling set by the government of 2.9 percent of gdp.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,007
492
in addition, the committee members noted that the labor market remains tight: the most recent data indicate a decline in unemployment, even if with a decline in the participation and employment rates.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
505
mortgage volume continued to be high.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
168
at that time israel’s financial markets remained relatively stable, and the nis behaved similarly to the currencies of the advanced economies.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
38
the committee members noted that the year over year inflation rate remained low, below the lower bound of the target range, but that 1-year expectations remained stable near the lower bound of the target range.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
101
makam yields declined by about 25–35 basis points along the entire curve, with one year yields at only 1.96 percent during the period.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
233
this could be learned this month from indicators of economic activity, foreign trade figures and labor market data.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
266
at the same time yields on government bonds dropped, particularly in germany and the us, reflecting an increase in risk aversion and investors switch to assets considered a “safe haven.” commodity prices continued upwards, with a further steep increase this month.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
470
there were signs of a slowdown in the rate of growth in the emerging markets.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
688
the committee emphasized that the continued withdrawal from the accommodative policy is contingent on economic indicators, and that the decisions in the future will continue to be made in accordance with developments in inflation, the real economy, financial markets and the global economy, with the goal of attaining the monetary policy targets.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
707
in january–april, there was a slowdown in the rate of growth of employee posts, reflecting a slowdown in a wide range of industries.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
278
the purchasing managers index declined in may by 2.2 points, but for the second consecutive month the index was above 50 points, the boundary between growth and contraction.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
570
in its announcement of the decision, the bank of israel emphasized the following points for increasing the interest rate for february 2011: - inflation in the last twelve months was within the target range.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
670
outstanding household debt increased by about nis 5.8 billion (1.3 percent) in may to about nis 442 billion, of which outstanding housing debt increased by about nis 2.5 billion (0.8 percent) to nis new mortgage volume continued to increase, reaching nis 7 billion in june.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
675
the rise in food and energy prices contributed to this acceleration.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
144
the imf created a rescue plan for greece that supported a reduction of the budget deficits (from 13.6 percent of gdp in 2009 to less than 3 percent in 2014).
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
918
they argued that a cut of this magnitude reflected a balance between opposing forces.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
141
as economic activity increased, so did the number of employees in most of the principal industries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
263
the government's support programs and the reviving private sector continue to constitute the main engines of growth.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
128
despite being only in the early stages of the year, developments already point to the annual budget deficit being significantly lower than the ceiling the government set for the year 2007––2.9 percent of gdp.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,007
607
the cumulative extent of the crisis is beginning to be felt in the labor market and is reflected in an increase in the number of people laid off due to businesses being closed.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
108
the impact on inflation of these developments is expected to continue to be felt in the future.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
105
in the light of developments since the previous interest rate decision on 23 july 2007, the discussion focused on participants’ assessments of the high rates of inflation in recent months, the economy’s rapid growth and its effect on inflation, an analysis of the factors affecting the shekel exchange rate, and the implications for israel’s economy and financial markets of the shocks felt in the previous month in the international financial markets all the department directors participating in the discussion recommended raising the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
35
one-year-forward inflation expectations derived from the capital market (break-even inflation) remained relatively stable from the last interest rate decision on august 23 to the first week of september, at around 2.7 percent, and in the next two weeks (up to september 24) they increased slightly, to above 2.8 percent.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
839
the debt crisis continued to worsen this month as well: in greece, cds spreads indicated a growing probability of default in the near future; in the past week s&p cut its credit rating for italy, with a negative outlook; there was growing concern of the european debt crisis spreading to the banking system, and amid that, credit ratings on large banks in the us, france, and italy were cut.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
537
investment houses' predict global inflation of 2.6 percent in 2010.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
495
in this regard, the committee members noted the tight labor market and the employment rate among the prime working ages currently being at a record.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
979
however, in the short term, there is expected to be some difficulty in measuring inflation, which is reflected in particular in the 27 percent of cpi components where activity was near zero in march.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
271
in addition, the failure to approve the administration’s new assistance plan in the amount of $450 billion, which includes tax benefits for problematic sectors, is liable to reduce gdp by up to about 2 percent, particularly since the previous programs are coming to an end.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
8
the rate of increase of the (m1) money supply over the previous twelve months was cash element by 7.1 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,007
737
the cds spread also increased in other emerging market economies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
523
the persistent rising trend of government tax revenue is expected to bring the budget deficit for 2007 to between 1 percent and 1.5 percent of gdp.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,007
968
however, there has recently been some decrease in the risks of a marked slowdown deriving from a deterioration in the “trade war” between the us and china and from a “hard brexit”.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
279
labor force survey data indicate a slight increase in unemployment during the fourth quarter of 2012, to 6.9 percent, accompanied by a decline in the participation rate of 0.4 percentage points.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
853
it can be assumed that upcoming elections are likely to continue the paralysis of the leadership there in its ability to deal with the crisis.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
899
the committee members said that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the recent cpi readings were relatively high, but they noted that certain factors continue to delay the return of inflation at this time, including the government’s activities to reduce the cost of living and to enhance competition, and online purchases of consumer goods having expanded markedly in the past decade.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
282
the interest rate is forecast to begin increasing in the middle of 2013, under the assumption of a recovery in the global economy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
758
home prices increased in the past 12 months by 17.9 percent, a markedly high rate compared to the pace of recent years.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
375
it was emphasized that in view of the crisis, there is a methodological difficulty in calculating the cpi and in analyzing the meaning of the measured change in prices.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
937
despite a downward adjustment to the figure for gdp in the fourth quarter of 2009 from 1.1 percent to 0.9 percent, that is still a good figure for growth in japan, as it is based also on consumption and not only on exports.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
92
the low june cpi and the reductions in commodity and energy prices in the last few weeks; the cpi excluding energy, food, and fruit and vegetables in the last twelve months rose by 1.9 percent, i.e., close to the midpoint of the target range; inflation expectations derived from the capital market fell sharply following the publication of the june price index; those members of the committee thought there was a good probability that inflation would return to the target range in the first half of 2009 without raising the interest rate for august; the probability of a rise in the interest rate of the fed, the ecb or the bank of england had declined; and the worsening of the global financial crisis in july had increased both the level of uncertainty in the financial markets and concern over a more serious and longer slowdown than expected previously.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
371
that would be consistent with the gradual return to a normal interest rate environment in light of the cumulative increases since the beginning of the year, and is also consistent with the efforts to gradually attain the inflation target, taking into account the other considerations described above.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
190
since january 2006 the interest-rate differential between the bank of israel rate and the federal reserve rate has stood at a quarter of a percentage point.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
546
yields on portuguese 10-year government bonds reached a record level of 7.4 percent, and gave rise to concern in the markets that the probability that portugal would have to ask for aid was increasing, against the background of the fact that greece and ireland had requested aid after the yields on their bonds exceeded the 7 percent level.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
804
the data on real activity indicated that the economy was recovering rapidly from the impact of the war in the north in the third quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
325
participants in the discussion related to scenarios tested by the various econometric models according to which it was reasonable to assume that, even after a cut in the interest rate for november of 25 basis points, the inflation environment would enable a further reduction in the interest rate.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,006
568
the bank of japan is not expected to change its interest rate before the end of the year.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
404
this is an indication that the recession in the housing market evident for a long time has started to spread to other economic spheres.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
352
however since then data became available that support the assessment that inflation is stabilizing in the lower part of the target range, and in their evaluation, the probability of a prolonged decrease to below the lower bound is relatively low.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
866
the index of manufacturing production (seasonally adjusted) rose in december by 0.7 percent, after falling by 0.6 percent in november.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
208
the committee members said that investment in residential construction declined in response to moderation of demand.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
679
nonetheless, central banks in several countries that are already growing relatively rapidly continued with the process of increasing their interest rates last month, and are expected to continue to do so in the near future.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
145
the ecb increased its growth forecasts to between 1.4 percent and houses expect a significant slowdown in growth later this year, with growth of 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter and 1.1 percent in the fourth.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
567
the committee held a broad discussion of the change that has taken place in the inflation environment.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
793
with regard to the decision on the interest rate for march, with the intention of reducing the cost of credit and strengthening the economy's ability to handle the effects of the decline in demand, and given the assessments that a cut in the interest rate was consistent with the rapid reduction in inflation and that inflation was likely to drop below the target range in 2009, the governor decided to reduce the interest rate for march by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
6
based on developments to date and on the assumption of almost complete expenditure of the budget, and assuming the upward trend in tax revenues will persist until the end of the year, the total deficit (excluding credit) in 2010 is expected to amount to less than 4 percent of gdp (compared with the ceiling of 5.5 percent of gdp).
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
329
the june cpi excluding fruit and vegetables rose by 0.6 percent, higher than the path consistent with the inflation target.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
857
israel’s risk premium, as measured by the five-year cds spread, increased in the month to the current discussions from 1.4 percent to about 1.7 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
653
the balance of credit to households decreased by 0.4 percent in december, and in the whole of 2010 it increased by 8.9 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
612
tel-bond yield gaps vis-à-vis government bonds narrowed this month.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
104
one of the factors contributing to growth in these markets is the increase in inter-zone trade and the increase in domestic demand.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
21
these participants noted that as yet there were no evident signs of inflationary pressures on the price indices, not even on the indices of domestic prices (such as gdp prices) published by the central bureau of statistics.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,007
517
in november and december, there was a recovery in the scope of credit card purchases, with total purchases returning to a level similar to that in routine times, except for the tourism industry.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
514
the financial markets reacted with stability to the events in the north.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
69
nevertheless, the forecasters and the fed continue with their assessment that at least part of the recent slowdown is due to temporary factors, including the severe winter weather that adversely impacted on the construction industry, the damage to the supply chain caused by the earthquake in japan, and the increase in commodity (in particular fuel) prices to levels that affect consumption and growth, and they therefore hope that the us market will improve in the second half of the year.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
165
interest rates on new fixed rate, cpi-indexed mortgages declined in april, while the interest rate on variable rate mortgages remained stable.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
301
regarding budgetary policy, the committee’s assessment was that the economy’s operation under an interim budget is leading to a tighter fiscal policy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
648
their assessment was that these factors do not reflect a weakness of demand.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
66
the level of activity in the economy is still lower than what prevailed just before the war, and supply constraints are weighing on the convergence of economic activity to the trend that characterized the economy before the war.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
680
in total, companies that responded expect activity to continue to grow in the third quarter as a result of an increase in orders from the domestic market.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
900
market assessments are that greece cannot allow itself to actually separate from the euro bloc, and in effect is trying to pressure the major countries in europe to accept easings in aid – since greece's abandonment of the euro bloc would hurt not only it but the entire bloc.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
450
of the total housing credit advanced in december, 47 percent was unindexed at floating interest rates, compared with the monthly average of 50.4 percent in the whole of 2010.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
68
the ecb is concerned over the risks of inflation deriving from the rise in commodity prices rolling over into wage rises.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
700
in light of the range of factors, the monetary committee decided to keep the interest rate for june unchanged at 2.5 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
483
at the time of the discussion the assessment was that the budget deficit for 2006 would be less than 2 percent of gdp.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,006
729
home prices continued to increase at a rapid pace in recent months, alongside growth in mortgage volume.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
734
the committee also discussed the uncertainty at the current time in view of the cyclicality of waves of morbidity, and the political uncertainty in israel. '
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
58