Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_israel

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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the committee has therefore decided that conditions allow for the start of a gradual process of increasing the interest rate.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
157
the outstanding debt of the business sector increased in february by 0.6 percent, to nis 771 billion.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
269
inflation expectations twelve months forward and beyond, as derived from the capital market, are in the upper part of the target inflation range, despite the expected increase in the interest rate.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
336
in five of the past six months, the actual cpi reading was lower than the average of the forecasters’ projections.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
586
inflation expectations for two years and longer increased, and currently range from 2.5 percent for shorter terms to 2.9 percent for longer terms.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,013
908
the us economy grew by 3 percent in the fourth quarter, the highest rate of increase since the second quarter of consumer confidence, retail sales, and manufacturing data in the us all indicate expansion.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
14
in the three months november 2009 to january 2010 the number increased by 2.9 percent compared with the previous three months the nominal wage per employee post in the business sector increased by 1.3 percent in january compared with the december level.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
582
a summary view of the economic situation available at the time of the committee’s discussion is presented in the [notice regarding the interest rate decision, which was](http://www.boi.org.il/en/newsandpublications/pressreleases/pages/26-2-18.aspx) the members of the monetary committee participating in the discussion decide on the appropriate rate of interest for the economy.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
293
the main risk to the global growth forecast is that the ongoing crisis in the financial markets will continue to affect domestic demand in the advanced economies and will cause more serious harm to the emerging markets too.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,008
34
the manufacturers' association survey shows that growth in manufacturing output continued, and even accelerated somewhat in the third quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
706
goods imports (excluding ships, aircraft and diamonds) increased by 5.8 percent in july from their june level (in dollar terms, seasonally adjusted), after remaining level in the second quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
326
the bank’s assessment is that inflation, measured over the previous twelve months, will return to within the range in mid2009.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
886
the current forecast was influenced not only by the deterioration of the economy in europe, but also by domestic data for the first half.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
682
in the us, economic activity remained at a high level, with slight moderation in the most recent data.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
931
alongside that, the committee members noted that several other indicators could point to expected moderation in the market: the number of home purchase transactions continues to decline and new mortgage volume in november is approaching the precovid-19-crisis average level.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
181
the extent of uncertainty regarding the extent and duration of the fighting is high, and this has an effect on the extent of adverse impact on activity as well.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
80
in the eurozone, macro data continued to be weak and indicated continued recession.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
497
the seasonally adjusted monthly rise in the index in the last three months, particularly the index excluding owner-occupied housing, was significantly slower than that in the previous six months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
63
nevertheless, they noted that activity was still at a low level, that the output gap was expected to continue widening, and that unemployment was expected to increase in the next few months.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
79
germany led the field, with 2.2 percent quarterly growth, contributing about 60 percent of the growth of the whole eurozone.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
406
however, last month there were signs of a recovery, including in exports and manufacturing production.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
786
four committee members supported the decision to leave the interest rate unchanged, while one member supported increasing it to 0.5 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
311
positive developments include the interest rate reduction by the ecb, extensive loans offered by the ecb, at easy terms, to commercial banks in the eurozone, and the move to reduce the interest rate on their dollar swap lines.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
986
inflation is expected to moderate in light of the drop in commodity and oil prices, the marked fall in share price indices, and the slowdown in global growth.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
821
the committee discussed a number of alternatives regarding monetary steps that can be implemented at this time in view of the situation in the economy.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
33
with that, assessments are that in the longer term the debt crisis will continue to present a major risk.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
296
the composite state-of-the-economy index for march showed another decline, of 0.9 percent, following the declines (month-on-month) of 1.2 percent in february, 1.4 percent in january and 1.1 percent in december.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
62
in the three months september–november the nominal wage dropped by 1.1 percent and the real wage dropped by 4.3 percent, compared with the level in june–august (seasonally adjusted, annual rate).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
211
a summary view of the economic situation available at the time of the committee’s discussion is presented in the [notice regarding the interest rate decision, which was](https://www.boi.org.il/en/newsandpublications/pressreleases/pages/25-2-19.aspx) the members of the monetary committee participating in the discussion decide on the appropriate rate of interest.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
339
interest rates on indexed mortgage tracks declined by unchanged.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
542
committee members discussed the vigorous activity in the housing market and the elevated volume of new mortgages extended to home buyers.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
56
completions in the twelve months to april totaled 33,941, a 7.9 percent increase compared with the number in the twelve months to april 2010.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
396
different commentators saw the crisis either as posing a threat of the break-up of the eurozone or as the opportunity to create fiscal uniformity.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
768
israel’s risk premium as measured by the five-year cds spread increased steeply this month from around 32 basis points to 55 basis points, its highest level since the outbreak of the global credit crisis.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
628
israel's sovereign risk premium as measured by the five-year cds spread declined during the period from 121 basis points to 100 basis points, but increased again this month to 116 basis points.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
764
in the discussion ahead of the decision on the interest rate for june 2012, five committee members were in favor of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 2.5 percent, and one committee member recommended reducing the interest rate by 25 basis points.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
545
employment data show that the number of employees fell by about 530,000 in november, and the data for previous months were revised sharply downwards.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
340
participants in this discussion include the members of the monetary committee, senior representatives from the various departments of the bank, and economists from the economic departments (research and market operations), who prepare and present the material for discussion.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,019
742
this figure is the result of a decline in receipts of taxes on the capital market, and an increase in receipts of indirect taxes.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
30
the trends in mutual funds continued—net new investments in money market funds, and withdrawals from corporate bond mutual funds.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
657
the rate of reduction in unit labor costs has moderated, however.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
241
in contrast, prices of the imported components of the index which had fallen over the past year, continued to fall in the first quarter of 2007.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
324
- interest rates in the major economies are low, and the markets are not pricing in an increase in the interest rate in the coming year in any of the central banks of the large advanced economies.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,012
725
against this background, the fed is expected to leave the interest rate at a low level at least till the beginning of next year.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
449
new home sales increased slightly in august, to about 2,320 (seasonally adjusted), and the stock of new homes available for sale resumed its increase, reaching a record of about 28,900 homes in august.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
407
tax revenues in the three months august–october, seasonally adjusted and allowing for changes in tax legislation and nonrecurring receipts, were 2.5 percent higher than in may–july.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
53
the gap between the yields on unindexed shekel bonds and us 10-year bonds widened during the last month from 77 basis points on july 23 to 139 basis points on august 26.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
200
in the us, economic activity remained at a high level, and above the trend, and the labor market remained tight.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
97
these reflect the contraction of economic activity in the last few months, with the rate of decline moderating.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
150
the path of the interest rate in the future depends on developments in the inflation environment, growth in israel and in the global economy, the monetary policies of major central banks, and developments in the exchange rate of the shekel.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
194
based on the median path seen by federal open market committee members, three additional increases are expected in 2017; based on market assessments, the pace will be slightly more moderate but still higher than expected previously.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,016
747
he added that the countries with prevailing low inflation took drastic measures to extract themselves from it.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
310
most of the increase was in the public sector.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,012
7
in contrast, core inflation remains stable.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
805
the cbs revised its forecast of growth in 2006 to about 4.5 percent, and the bank of israel’s forecast of growth in 2007 is about 4 percent.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,006
390
looking one year ahead, inflation is expected to be around the midpoint of the target range, with the interest rate increasing during level of the interest rate.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
245
house prices––which are presented in the central bureau of statistics survey of house prices but are not included in the cpi––rose in february–march at a monthly rate of 1 percent, following their increase of 1.4 percent a month in january–february.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
18
the positive sentiment in this market was affected by, among other things, the supervisor of banks directive which was announced this month, expectations for continued increase in yields in government bonds, a number of sales of israeli companies in the period reviewed, and from a marked contraction of spreads of us and european corporate bonds against the background of the quantitative easing.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
341
the committee noted that the fast pace of the inoculation process in israel increases the optimism regarding a rapid return of the economy to a path of growth in the coming year.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
286
the ecb noted the threat to price stability in the medium term in the light of a further rise in manufacturing capacity utilization, an improvement in the labor market, the probability of upward pressures on wages, and the rise in oil prices.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,007
461
the israeli forecasters predict on average that the bank of israel interest rate will be reduced by 45 basis points for march, and that at the end of 2009 the interest rate will be about 0.9 percent.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
656
the growth forecast for china was reduced by 0.1 percentage points, to improvement there expected to be slow, as it continues to suffer from restraining budgetary policy and from a low supply of bank credit.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,013
363
they noted that the latest data indicated a slowdown in the rate of economic deterioration and that there were signs that the situation was stabilizing.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
940
the nominal yield on 10-year unindexed government bonds dipped by 0.1 percentage points over the past month, and in november averaged 5.6 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
649
as expected, the fed left the interest rate unchanged, and repeated that it expected the near-zero rate to remain until mid-2013 at least, but it did not announce another quantitative easing program (qe3).
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
15
the investment houses expect, on average, that the bank will keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent till the end of the first quarter of 2009.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
342
stock market prices rose this month against the background of the easing of the debt crisis in europe––due to the fiscal policy measures introduced in countries with refinancing problems––and positive financial statements in the second quarter.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
798
the fed chair repeated the assessment that the federal reserve is likely to increase the interest rate this year.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
873
during the month since the previous interest rate discussions, the shekel strengthened against the dollar, from about nis 3.58 to the dollar (on february 25[th]) to nis 3.52 (on march 24[th]), i.e., an appreciation of about 1.7 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
123
the number of employees joining the labor market each month (non-farm payrolls) averaged more than 200 thousand in the past six months, the most significant rise since 2006.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
906
in the us, economic data continue to indicate an improvement in the economic situation.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
722
the number of salaried posts in the economy rose in the last quarter of 2007 by 4.9 percent relative to the same period in 2006.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
110
the european central bank (ecb) assesses that eurozone growth will be and predict negative growth of 0.7 percent in 2012, and global growth of 2.9 percent, compared with the previous forecast of 3.2 percent.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
31
expansionary monetary policy, together with significant budgetary expansion in most countries, continues to support the recovery of the global economy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
664
according to the bank of israel assessment published in april, gdp will increase by exports.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
720
the dollar continues to strengthen vis-à-vis the basket of major currencies (dxy), which may also weigh on the recovery of the us economy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
521
at the same time, inflation expectations from various sources for the next 12 months show stability after the increase they registered last month.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
175
makam yields increased by 10–20 basis points along the entire curve, with one year yields increasing slightly to about 2.56 percent, so that the market essentially does not project an interest rate reduction in the coming year.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
392
the medium term risks include recession in europe, fiscal crisis in japan, and slower than expected growth in developing economies.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
817
for the first time in four quarters, the employers survey of the ministry of industry, trade and labor shows a marked improvement in the balance of employment, the result of both an increase in the number of posts filled, and a reduction in the number of terminations of employment.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
953
for example, preliminary data from the companies survey indicate that the second quarter growth rate is around the potential rate.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
328
the bank of israel will continue to monitor worldwide economic developments and the situation in israel closely, and will act to encourage employment and growth, to support the stability of the financial system, and to achieve price stability.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
126
after an extended discussion, three committee members were of the opinion that the interest rate should be kept at its current level.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
4
as expected, the bank of japan left the interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
889
on average, they forecast inflation of 0.7 percent in 2007, and 2.1 percent in 2008.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,007
989
on 9 december the world bank published its updated economic assessments, according to which world growth will be 2.8 percent in 2008, and 0.9 percent in 2009.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
726
in september households' total debt increased by 0.3 percent, with outstanding mortgages increasing by 0.7 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
414
in the second half of 2006, after four years of increases, the upward trend in labor productivity appears to have come to a halt and as a result, unit labor costs appear to be rising.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
965
the investment houses expect that inflation will drop to 1.3 percent at the end of 2010.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
661
this is the first time that in the course of the discussions on the interest rate, the research department presented a quarterly forecast that combines various indicators derived from models for forecasting inflation and real developments with discretionary assessments incorporated in an expanded dsge (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model that brings together the information to obtain a consistent forecast.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
9
the nominal yield on unindexed 5-year government bonds rose during the last month by about 0.2 percentage points to an average of 5.4 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
197
according to the forecast by the research department—which this time presented only one scenario—gdp is expected to grow by 6.3 percent in 2021 and by 5 percent in a large extent the output gap created at the gdp level due to the contraction in 2020.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
435
the yield on 5-year cpi-indexed bonds declined in february to an average of 1.8 percent (reaching as low as 1.4 percent on 17 february), from an average of 2.3 percent in january.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
553
the balance of outstanding housing credit to households increased by 0.5 percent in the twelve months to november to nis 257 billion.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
887
in the month between the previous interest rate discussions and the current ones, concern mounted over the budget deficits and debts of several european countries, leading to sharp changes in financial markets.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
160
these developments were against the background of global trends.
irrelevant
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
637
the bank of israel announced that it will continue to act to achieve its price-stability objective, and will monitor israeli and worldwide economic developments, and will use the instruments available to it to encourage employment and growth, and to support the stability of the financial system.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
950
the index of manufacturing production (seasonally adjusted) fell in march by rose sharply in march, by about 4 percent, after declining by 0.6 percent in february the nominal wage per employee post in the business sector increased by 0.1 percent in february compared with its january level.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
799
in the last twelve months the cpi rose by 3.6 percent, 0.5 percentage points of which were attributable to government actions (mainly changes in the vat rate and the water surcharge).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
88
most monthly indicators point to continued growth at a moderate rate—the composite state of the economy index for may increased by 0.2 percent, and the indices for the previous two months were revised upward; the climate indices for may, based on the central bureau of statistics business tendency survey, indicate stability in the growth rate of the business sector; and the consumer confidence indicator calculated by the central bureau of statistics increased moderately in may, following its moderate increase in april.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
487