Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

bank_of_israel

sentences stringlengths 29 857	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
makam yields declined along most of the curve by up to 8 basis points, with one-year yields declining to 1.62 percent during the period.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	705
after considering all the above points, the governor decided to raise the interest rate for june by 25 basis points, to 3.5 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	921
nonetheless, the implications for the supply of energy resources are likely to be significant and long term, and are likely to impact on future growth.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	158
in the discussion, the following points were raised in favor of leaving the interest rate unchanged: - assuming that the exchange rate were to remain around its level at the time of the discussion, inflation would be likely to stay within its target range, even without an increase in the interest rate.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	654
the consumer confidence index and the university of michigan confidence index for december both rose more than expected.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	822
since the beginning of the year short-term real interest has risen by one percentage point.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	43
the average rate of unemployment is expected to be 6.1 percent in 2008.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,008	189
the modest rise in the index in the last few months supports the assessment that the rate of recovery of economic activity has slowed.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	869
the committee noted that, looking forward, there are a number of forces that will be able support an increase in inflation: continued growth in private consumption, which is supported by the strength of the labor market; stability in commodity prices; and a continued increase in labor cost per output unit.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	987
the dollar value of these exports dropped by a steep 29 percent in the three months november–january compared with that in the previous three months (annual rate, seasonally adjusted).	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	467
goods exports (excluding diamonds) increased by about 6.5 percent in december from their november level (in dollar terms, seasonally adjusted).	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	257
as house prices fell, the rate of delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures rose, and the stock of houses for sale increased.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	658
inflation over the previous twelve months in july was a negative 0.7 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	754
inflation continued to decline in september for the fourth month in a row, against the background of the reductions in energy prices and the increase in the rate of unemployment to 9.6 percent, its highest level in ten years.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,009	632
the rise in the index in march was due mainly to the increase in services exports and goods imports and exports.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	426
the monetary committee discussed the domestic capital market, in which equity indices rose, and the yield on long-term government bonds and corporate bond spreads remained essentially unchanged, with a decline in the balance of tradable debt.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	288
germany and france actually recorded positive growth of 0.3 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	70
committee members are of the opinion that important factors in the increase in home prices at this time are a slowing of planning processes and the decline in the rate of marketing properties.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	167
forecasts of growth in europe were revised downwards, and according to the eurostat forecast, growth in the eurozone in 2009 is expected to be between minus one percent and zero, and in 2010, between 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	102
the growth rate of the money supply (m1) over the previous twelve months has been slowing since the beginning of the year and in october it stood at 5.6 percent, down from 11.5 percent in september.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	250
inflation expectations for the coming 12 months, from all sources, were higher in june than in may, but the developments during the period were uneven: inflation expectations derived from the capital market declined, while professional forecaster’s projections increased slightly after the cpi was published.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	832
against the background of continued growth in this balance and the absence of appropriate growth in allowances for doubtful debts in respect of housing credit, the supervisor of banks published a draft directive increasing the required risk weighting and provisioning on housing loans, and reducing the required capital allocation for guarantees in respect of homes already delivered to residents.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	916
they assessed that continuation of the appreciation will weigh on the return of inflation toward the midpoint of the target range.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	763
in june, the nonfinancial business sector issued bonds totaling nis 3.6 billion, higher than the average over the past 12 months (nis 2.8 billion), and foreign companies continued to issue bonds at a relatively high pace.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	84
from the previous interest rate decision through march 17, the shekel weakened by 11 percent in terms of the effective exchange rate, but after the bank of israel instituted dollar/shekel swap transactions, the volatility declined and the weakening of the shekel moderated to 3.4 percent since the previous interest rate decision.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	295
outstanding credit to households declined by 0.2 percent, to nis 360 billion.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	125
exports of goods and services increased by 5.6 percent—after declines of 10 percent and 5 percent, respectively, in the previous two quarters— bringing the figure back to the level it was at in the first quarter of 2011.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	845
in this context it should be noted that the transmission between a reduction in the bank of israel interest rate and a reduction in the interest changed to borrower by banks is weakened at such low rates of interest.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	191
another issue discussed was the global environment and the risks posed by it to the israeli economy.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	617
after taking all the above into consideration, the governor decided to raise the interest rate for august by 25 basis points to 4 percent, in order to support the return of inflation and inflation expectations to around the middle of the target range.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,008	64
on 4 december the bank of england cut its rate from 3 percent to 2 percent, and on 19 december the bank of japan reduced its rate by 0.2 percentage points to 0.1 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	709
in light of the indications of a slowdown in the growth rate of the israeli economy, led by a decline in exports against the background of greater uncertainty about world growth, and in light of the macroprudential measures introduced by the bank of israel and their implications for inflation, the governor decided to keep the rate of interest unchanged for december, at 2 percent.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,010	247
the committee discussed the data on economic activity, which indicate a continued robust rate of activity, with a slight decline in the most recent data.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	434
activity returned to its long term trend in most industries, but is below trend in the vulnerable proximity industries, particularly incoming tourism, hospitality, and culture.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	362
this contrasts with the usual trend of an increase in mortgages in the summer months.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	215
tax revenues since the beginning of the year are some nis 11 billion ahead of the seasonal budget path.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	879
however, the forecast for world trade growth was revised downward, to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent, and the institution noted the concern of increased barriers to world trade.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	985
japan's economy continues to report positive data pointing to a recovery trend, and it seems that the economy, which had lagged behind the other asian economies, has started closing the gap in the last few months.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	652
against this background it is more probable that the upward trend of interest rates will continue in many central banks throughout the world.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,007	316
this would be a continuance of the interest rises in the past few months and takes account of the time lag between implementation and effect.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,006	489
these cuts, against the background of the relatively stable inflation expectations for one year forward, had reduced the short term real interest rate to a low level, thus encouraging economic activity.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	89
in addition, in light of the increase of only 1.2 percent in the core personal consumption expenditure (pce) index for may (which although higher than had been expected, is still not high), the chairman of the fed claims that the price increases (and their severe adverse effects on the purchasing power of us consumers) are temporary, and he therefore continues to feel more concerned over deflation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	977
israel's sovereign risk premium as measured by the five-year cds spread increased slightly this month to 150 basis points, in contrast to cds spread declines in most countries.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	199
actual budget expenditure figures indicate a domestic deficit, excluding net credit granted in the year to date through july, of nis 9.3 billion, compared with a deficit of nis 3.6 billion in the corresponding period of 2011.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	277
nevertheless, there is evidence that the effects of the developments in the global economic environment are starting to filter through.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,008	878
in addition, the revision by the us commerce department of figures for the prior three years shows that gdp is currently only $13.5 trillion (not $14.3 trillion) and in effect is still lower than the level on the eve of the crisis in 2008.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	789
the bank of israel's composite state-of-the-economy index for september published in october rose by 1.2 percent (compared with the previous month), following increases of 1.1 percent in the august index and 0.9 percent in the july index.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	408
the makam yield for one year declined last month from 4.4 percent to 4.1 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	865
the purchasing managers index rose for the tenth month in succession, and reached exports by france and germany to asia.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	148
negative indicators include october data on foreign trade, and third-quarter data from the manufacturers association survey of expectations (see below).	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,010	894
the moderation in the rate on increase of home prices in recent months comes against the background of the continued increase in the number of building starts, the lagged effect of the increase in the interest rate, measures introduced by the bank of israel affecting mortgages, and steps taken by the ministry of finance in real estate taxation.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	37
in brazil the central bank cut the interest rate by 50 b.p.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	776
no significant slowdown was seen, despite a sharp decline in the volume of transactions.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	380
the discussion centered on two major issues.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	851
the forecast for the primary variables was revised downward, though only slightly so.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	697
seven of the ten forecasters who updated their reports to the bank of israel after the publication of the june cpi expected the bank to increase the interest rate for august, while the others expected an increase in september.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	814
there is a high likelihood that the federal reserve will raise its rate by 0.25 percentage points at its next meeting on regarding yield gaps, nominal yields in the us stand in june at about 5.1 percent both for one-year and 10-year terms, so that the nominal yield gap between israel and the us ranges from 0.7 percentage points for one year to 1.4 percent in the long term.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,006	904
the amount of nonresidents’ activity in the makam market declined this month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	252
nevertheless, the withdrawal of fiscal support and the continuing process of reducing leverage by banks are likely to hold demand down and thus represent a downside risk to the forecast recovery.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	929
the scope of transactions increased in january compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, and in march mortgage volume was high compared to preceding months.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	611
over the last year (may–july 2008 compared with may–july 2007) the index of manufacturing production has risen by 10.6 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,008	500
in march the imf published a forecast of negative world growth in 2009 of between 0.5 percent and 1 percent (annual rate), compared with its previous forecast in october 2008 of the bank of israel uses econometric models to test various scenarios.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	163
the data also indicate a rise in demand for workers with low earning capacity.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	280
since the beginning of the year, the seasonally adjusted cpi has increased by 1.9 percent, consistent with an annual rate of inflation of 2.1 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	942
the tel aviv 25 index fell by 14 percent, a move similar to that of us stock market indices.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	596
this occurred against the background of a slump in exports, a sharp reduction in private consumption, a decline in investments, and a large drop in inventories.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	604
they noted, among other things, the low level of investment in residential construction (despite the increase in building starts in the second quarter).	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	217
some participants noted that after a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate for february, they thought it likely that the process of interest rate reductions would be coming to a close.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	395
in the last twelve months the cpi rose by 3.6 percent, and the wholesale price index by 7.6 percent, the latter reflecting price increases in most of the principal industries.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,006	997
inflation expectations fell steeply this month, in light of the expected slowdown in economic activity and the fall in commodity prices.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	475
in addition, the committee members noted that the upward trend in mortgage interest rates is continuing and in parallel there appears to be some slowdown in mortgage volumes.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	203
four committee members supported the proposal to keep the interest rate unchanged, and two committee members supported increasing the interest rate to 0.25 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	850
a discussion developed regarding the forces acting to weaken the shekel, including the continued rise in the us interest rate, a process that worked, among other things, to reduce hedging activities among institutional investors, and the forces acting to strengthen it, including growth in exports.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	963
the investment houses expect that deflation will continue into next year.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	982
since the date of the last interest rate decision (29 october) until 22 november, a few days before the current decision, the shekel appreciated against the dollar, from nis 3.99 to the dollar to nis 3.89, a 2.6 percent change.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	445
the committee decided to leave the other policy measures previously decided upon in place.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	507
national accounts data show in the first quarter of 2007 there was a further rapid increase in exports, a sharp rise in investments in the principal industries, and further expansion in private consumption.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	645
the forecasters predict that twelve months hence the interest rate will be 2.8 percent.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,009	196
the yield on one-year makam increased to an average of about 1.1 percent, from about 0.9 percent in april.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	708
in contrast, the increase in commodity and energy prices is expected to have an effect on the inflation rate in the near term and draw it near the center of the target range.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	785
the yield gap between local currency unindexed ten-year bonds and ten-year us treasury bonds contracted from 163 b.p.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	423
the bank of israel research department quarterly staff forecast, which was compiled in march, was not revised, as there were no extraordinary developments regarding the projection.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	683
a bloomberg survey shows that most investors believe that china will face a banking crisis within the next five years.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	415
these tax increases are likely to be reflected in one-off price increases in the next few months.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,009	895
the nominal wage increased by 0.8 percent in july– september compared with the previous three months, and the real wage increased by the effect of legislative changes).	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	693
in its announcement, the bank highlighted the following main considerations underlying the decision to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.75 percent: - the inflation environment reflected in increased actual prices and expectations for one year ahead remains stable.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,013	993
in the twelve months ending in february, the m1 monetary aggregate (cash held by the public and demand deposits) increased by 12.9 percent, and the m2 aggregate (m1 plus unindexed deposits of up to one year) increased by 6.9 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	781
furthermore, the weakness of the euro against the shekel makes israel's exports to europe less profitable and has an adverse impact on exporters' competitiveness vis-àvis european competitors.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	400
according to data form the us department of transportation, the stock of vehicles held by households is approaching unprecedentedly low levels, so that the us economy may enjoy the benefit of support from a continued increase in vehicle production.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	132
with that, after publication of the october cpi, expectations rose slightly to 1.9 percent.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	55
- factors acting to push up inflation in recent months are expected to bring inflation back to within its target range during 2007, and to raise it close to the upper boundary of the range in 2008.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,007	981
regarding budgetary pressures, it was also noted that adhering to the budget framework––and with it, the deficit––would help the economy remain stable and strengthen foreign and local investors' confidence in the economy.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,006	847
however, the (continued) decline in goods exports and in industrial production were notably negative aspects among the components.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	193
the slowdown in global growth intensified, against the background of the sharp fall in demand.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,009	696
the bank of israel staff forecast is that inflation in 2011 will be 2.6 percent, with a gradual increase in the interest rate to about 3.3 percent in the last quarter of the year.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	431
based on the equation, the cpi housing component (i.e., rentals) is expected to rise faster than was estimated previously.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	620
inflation expectations and forecasts for the coming year are around the upper bound of the target range.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	660
he was of the opinion that an interest rate lower than 0.1 percent is more appropriate due to the magnitude of the crisis and the adverse impact, anomalous in its magnitude, on the employment level.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	388
although the markets have been calm in the past few days with the fall in share prices moderating, it is not clear if the rise in risk aversion will continue or if it is only temporary.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,006	177
global macroeconomic data presented a mixed picture this month.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/bank_of_israel

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Bank of Israel.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The bank_of_israel dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}