Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_israel

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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the marked decline in the unemployment rate in the second quarter, reflecting the continued narrowing of the output gap, was discussed.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
134
the composite state-of-the-economy index rose in october by 0.6 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,006
522
at the end of the discussion, the governor decided to leave the interest rate unchanged for may, at 0.5 percent, and to persist with the other policy tools, with the intention of continuing to encourage economic activity.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
422
however, it was emphasized that there is a very high level of variation among industries.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
239
expectations regarding interest rates around the world derived from the conduct of financial market traders are that the increases in interest rates by the central banks in most advanced economies will start later than expected last month.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
996
however, data on exports going forward remain mixed: there is a positive decline in the percentage of companies reporting a severe constraint of a shortage of export orders (based on the business tendency survey), while at the same a slowing in goods exports is seen in april (based on foreign trade data).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
146
from the previous monetary policy discussion held on february 26, 2012, through march 23, 2012, the tel aviv 25 index increased by 4 percent, against the background of the announcement by the supervisor of banks about the upward path of core capital ratios in the banking system over the next few years, a less steep path than the market had expected.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
218
the recovery in the global economy continued this month, although some slowing in its rate was evident, and the level of optimism regarding the global economy, and in particular the us and european economies, declined.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,011
290
the stock of new homes available for sale continued to increase, and in may–july was on average 6.4 percent higher than the three preceding months.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
783
the financial crisis occurred against the background of the very rapid expansion of sales of structured products and derivatives, from $ 80 trillion gross in 1998 to almost $ 600 trillion in 2007.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
473
moreover, in israel and around the world questions arise regarding the functioning of the financial system when interest paid to depositors is close to zero.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,009
315
the various scenarios of the models yield contradictory results, making it difficult to analyze the relevant factors.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
815
most of the slowdown in growth derives from the weakness of exports, against the background of the weakness in the global economy; a moderation in domestic demand is also evident.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
909
the committee members who supported keeping the interest rate unchanged noted that indicators of expected real activity, particularly the improvement in expectations of activity compared to previous months, alongside the turnaround in imports, may point toward an end to the slowdown.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
934
macroeconomic data published during the month present a mixed picture.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
402
the purchasing managers index continued to fall, and reached 33.3 points, the fourth month in succession below the 50-point mark that indicates deteriorating conditions and a slowdown.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
510
the uk also announced deep budget cuts that incorporated reduced expenditure, increased taxes and surcharges on banks, in an attempt to reduce the large budget deficit.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
732
new mortgages granted in january declined by 14.5 percent, after rising by 9 percent in december.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
26
prior to the current interest rate decision, the bank of israel interest rate was 1.0–1.25 percentage points higher than the us federal funds rate, and 0.25 percentage points higher than the ecb rate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
39
among the contributing factors to the decline in consumer prices were the continued decline in the food and fruit and vegetables components, and the moderation in the increase in the housing component, with the latter remaining unchanged this month.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
86
committee members discussed developments in fiscal policy as well.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
47
the cds spread of most emerging market countries also widened somewhat in this period.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
807
even after the security situation improves, recovery of incoming presented in the appendix.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,006
957
a summary view of the economic situation available at the time of the committee’s discussion is presented in the notice regarding the interest rate decision, which was published on july 8, 2024, and in the data file that accompanied the notice.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
903
share price indices fell, and credit risk premiums rose.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
526
the main factors supporting real appreciation of the shekel are the expected further current account surplus in the balance of payments and the flow of foreign investment into the economy.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,007
933
in contrast, a slight improvement was recorded in us economic activity this month.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
454
the baseline scenario of the quarterly dsge (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model––which places great weight on expectations and which uses a bank of israel reaction function based in part on the smoothing of the interest rate path––gives an increase to about 1.2 percent in the average rate of interest in the first quarter of 2010 and a level of 2.3 percent in the last quarter of 2010.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,009
606
the sharp decline in exports of goods and services was also mentioned, as well as the moderate growth of private consumption.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
941
the bank of israel's composite state-of-the-economy index for october rose by 0.5 percent (compared with the previous month), following an increase at the same rate in the september index and 0.6 percent in the august index.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
298
most data on the emerging market economies published this month were better than those of the previous month, but they still show a slowdown in the rate of growth.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
702
data published since the previous interest rate discussions indicate that the expansion in real economic activity in israel is continuing, with increased uncertainty regarding the continuation of the rapid rate of growth.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
142
most of them expect a further similar reduction in december.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,006
273
labor force survey data indicate that despite a slight decline in november, the prime working ages (25– with 80.1 percent in october) and employment rate (76.6 percent, compared with 76.9 percent), and a low unemployment rate (3.9 percent, unchanged from october), while the job vacancy rate remains high, at 3.8 percent (seasonally adjusted).
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,016
943
the index of consumer sentiment rose to 107.8 points in february, and expectations of manufacturing and services industries in february indicate optimism.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,011
223
israeli forecasters’ assessment of one-year inflation dropped in the month since the last interest rate decision to 1.5 percent, on average, below the midpoint of the target range.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,006
154
second, the decline in goods exports from israel was affected by temporary labor disruptions in the chemicals industry.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
103
goods imports (excluding ships and aircraft and diamonds) increased in may by about 1 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
724
the rate of inflation, seasonally adjusted, over the past seven months has been around the lower limit of the inflation target range.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
369
the nominal wage per employee post rose by 3.1 percent in that period.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,007
502
the committee members noted that the growth in imports also supports the assessment that the slowing rate of growth reflects a supply constraint, as the increase in domestic demand is satisfied by imports and less so by domestic production.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
44
the data point to a moderation in the rate of decline in activity.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
532
the tel-bond indices showed only small movement: the tel-bond 20 index dropped by 0.2 percent, and the tel-bond 40 by government bonds widened just a little, by about 2 b.p, as yields on government bonds also increased.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
106
the cost of the steps taken would amount to about nis 1.1 billion a year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
558
the main feature of the corporate bond market, especially in holding companies, was the continued rise in yields on bonds of several companies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
259
it is assessed that the current-account surplus could reach 6 percent of gdp in 2007.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,006
616
the tel-bond 20 index and the tel-bond 40 index increased by 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
114
the strong growth rate is supported principally by a sharp rise in private consumption and in business-sector investment.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
795
macroeconomic figures published this month in the us were relatively favorable, and were generally better than expected.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
338
in addition, the committee discussed developments in the global economy, particularly the effects of the war in eastern europe on oil and other commodity prices and the transmission to domestic inflation, as well as the rapid growth in advanced economies alongside high inflation and the beginning of a contractionary monetary policy process that followed it.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
155
the very modest increase in exports (excluding diamonds) was also noted.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
186
in the month prior to the interest rate decision, short-term real interest rates rose by about 0.2 of a percentage point to a level of 4 percent (up to 4 years) while long-term real interest rates reached a level of 3.8 percent (10 years).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
222
political pressures to increase budget spending both to improve defense preparedness disengagement spending will be lower in 2007 than it was in 2006. and to tackle welfare-related issues increased uncertainty about the government’s budget decision before it was approved in september.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,006
162
against the background of indicators for a gradual recovery in the labor market and in demand (with variance among the principal industries) and in contrast, the supply limitations in some industries—the committee assessed that there are several main risks to a possible acceleration of inflation: the development of the war and its impact on economic activity, depreciation of the shekel, limitations on construction industry activity, fiscal developments, and global oil prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
862
the composite state-of-the-economy index rose by 0.4 percent in february, which indicates that economic activity continued to expand, though at a slower pace than in the previous few months.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
87
these developments help bolster foreign investors’ faith in israel’s economy, which is reflected by the extent of foreign investments in israel.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,007
569
against this background, the ecb left the interest rate unchanged at one percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
164
the banking sector around the world, specifically in europe, is under pressure due to its exposure to bonds of countries in difficulty.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
90
during the period from august 22 to september 24, the shekel appreciated by about to the appreciation of the shekel against the dollar by about 2.7 percent, and depreciation against the euro by about 2.1 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
843
the yield gap between 10-year shahar bonds and us government bonds of the same term declined to 127 basis points from 173 basis points in mid-september.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,006
945
this month the imf reduced its global growth forecast for moderate in emerging market economies.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,012
775
the continued increase in the number of building starts, the delayed effect of the increase in the interest rate, measures introduced by the bank of israel affecting mortgages, and steps taken by the ministry of finance in real estate taxation are all expected to continue to moderate home prices during the coming year.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
762
nonetheless, initial findings from the bank of israel's companies survey for the first quarter of 2010 show further expansion of economic activity and expectations that this would continue in the next quarter.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
354
the notice of the interest rate decision for august stated that the decision to leave the interest rate unchanged is consistent with the bank of israel's interest rate policy which is intended to entrench the inflation rate within the price stability target of 1–3 percent over the next twelve months, and to support growth while maintaining financial stability.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
748
from the previous monetary policy discussion held on december 23, 2012, through january 25, 2013, the tel aviv 25 index declined by about 0.6 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
29
during the last month the members of the federal reserve emphasized that preventing inflation was now the focal objective currently facing the us economy, rather than concern over an economic slowdown.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
840
the crisis in greece, against the background of high budget deficits and public debt in several european countries, made it an urgent necessity to find a solution for greece and dominated the difficult problems facing the eurozone.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
544
during the month between the previous and the current interest rate discussions (22 june to 27 july), the shekel weakened against the dollar, from nis 3.35 to nis 3.49 to the dollar, a drop of about 4 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
287
the committee assessed that the monetary tightening processes in israel and abroad, and the moderation of demand, are working to moderate inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
727
concern over global growth intensified also due to the assessment that the set of tools available for economic policy was depleted, relative to that in 2008.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
703
the unemployment rate remains at 4.5 percent, and at the same time both the number of employed and the level of wages increased.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
626
forecasters project the interest rate in 1 year to be 0.29 percent, on average.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
446
indicators published in the last month (in the period from the decision on the january interest rate on december 27, 2010 till the current decision on january 24, 2011), showed that activity continued to increase in most sectors of the economy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
207
against this background, the research department's nowcasting estimate for gdp growth in the second quarter, based on current economic data, is for 2.8 percent, a pace of growth which is similar to that of recent months.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
466
home prices, which are published in the central bureau of statistics survey of home prices but are not included in the cpi, increased in november–december by 1 percent, after increasing by 1.1 percent in october–november.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
605
gdp is changing consistently with these developments, with increases in capital utilization and labor productivity.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
75
in addition, liquidity and credit problems are becoming increasingly serious and there is deepening concern over the further weakening of financial institutions.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
16
they noted that so far, worldwide, there have only been interest rate increases in countries in which there was a marked deviation from the inflation target, while in israel the expectations derived from the capital market are within the target range, and according to the bank of israel research department forecast and private forecasters, the inflation rate is expected to be lower in another 12 months.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
428
goods exports excluding ships, airplanes and diamonds dropped by 5.7 percent in august, after falling 2.8 percent in july.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
98
at that time the yield on one-year makam declined from 4.5 percent to 4.3 percent, while that on 3-month prior to the current decision on the interest rate, the bank of israel interest rate was points lower than the ecb rate.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
960
most of the major currencies strengthened against the dollar at a rate of up to 7.1 percent, while the chinese yuan weakened against the dollar by 4.1 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
485
that said, manufacturing production has not yet been affected, and (till may) has shown growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
538
the committee discussed the exceptional uncertainty regarding the healthrelated and economic scenarios expected in israel and abroad, and the uncertainty regarding the fiscal policy expected to be adopted in a case of the crisis being extended.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
572
the ecb interest rate is still 1 percent, and is expected to remain at that level until the first quarter of 2011 at least.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,010
61
rapid recovery of activity in the us, however, would bring forward increases in the interest rate there, would narrow the interest rate differential, and enable the interest rate in israel to increase more rapidly.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
689
the return of inflation and inflation expectations to the target range is an essential element in the support of sustainable growth.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
615
- economic indicators published this month show that activity expanded at a faster pace, led by domestic demand.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
976
the committee assessed that the economy continues to grow by around its potential rate, and that data for the first quarter of 2019, net of increased vehicle imports, indicates growth slightly lower than 3 percent (based on the research department’s assessment).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
260
the inflation rate as measured by the change in the cpi over the past 12 months was -0.4 percent, while the change was -0.7 percent over the 12 months ending in august, and there has been a marked upward trend in the annual inflation rate since april.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
948
economic data from other regions of the world show limited reaction to the expected us slowdown.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,007
518
however, in contrast, the trend of depreciation in the shekel, which in the committee’s assessment also reflects some increase in the economy’s risk premium, contributed to an increase in the inflation rate.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
779
there is an apparent slight easing in the labor shortage constraint as reported by employers in a number of industries, and the job vacancy rate remains high but is declining moderately.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
46
the number of building starts in the twelve months to june 2010 was about 37,000, compared with about 33,000 in the equivalent period a year earlier––an increase of about 12 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
527
three of the participants recommended cutting the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
377
orders for durable goods also fell relatively sharply.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
5
the most recent data on economic activity in the first months of 2008 indicate a slowdown in growth in the services sector in europe, which constitutes the major sector in the economy, to its lowest rate in four years, and a fall in consumer and business confidence indices.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,008
956
the total number of business sector employee posts increased by 3.4 percent in june– august, compared with the same period in 2009.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
864
director of the research department finance division, research department a downward revision of us growth figures for the past three years, a cut in the credit rating of the us, stagnation in core economies in europe, and concerns of an expansion of the debt crisis to italy and spain (which led to european central bank recession and led to an unsettled market.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
861
the impact on home prices of the ltv ratio limitations, which were imposed by the supervisor of banks and went into effect at the beginning of november, was not reflected in december mortgage data, but is expected to be seen beginning in january.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
48
the recession in the eurozone continues—in the final quarter of 2012, all 4 of the major economies in the eurozone, as well as the overall eurozone economy itself, contracted at a sharper than expected rate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
256