Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_israel

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
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999
makam yields declined along most of the curve by up to 8 basis points, with one-year yields declining to 1.62 percent during the period.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
705
after considering all the above points, the governor decided to raise the interest rate for june by 25 basis points, to 3.5 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
921
nonetheless, the implications for the supply of energy resources are likely to be significant and long term, and are likely to impact on future growth.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
158
in the discussion, the following points were raised in favor of leaving the interest rate unchanged: - assuming that the exchange rate were to remain around its level at the time of the discussion, inflation would be likely to stay within its target range, even without an increase in the interest rate.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
654
the consumer confidence index and the university of michigan confidence index for december both rose more than expected.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
822
since the beginning of the year short-term real interest has risen by one percentage point.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
43
the average rate of unemployment is expected to be 6.1 percent in 2008.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
189
the modest rise in the index in the last few months supports the assessment that the rate of recovery of economic activity has slowed.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
869
the committee noted that, looking forward, there are a number of forces that will be able support an increase in inflation: continued growth in private consumption, which is supported by the strength of the labor market; stability in commodity prices; and a continued increase in labor cost per output unit.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
987
the dollar value of these exports dropped by a steep 29 percent in the three months november–january compared with that in the previous three months (annual rate, seasonally adjusted).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
467
goods exports (excluding diamonds) increased by about 6.5 percent in december from their november level (in dollar terms, seasonally adjusted).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
257
as house prices fell, the rate of delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures rose, and the stock of houses for sale increased.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
658
inflation over the previous twelve months in july was a negative 0.7 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
754
inflation continued to decline in september for the fourth month in a row, against the background of the reductions in energy prices and the increase in the rate of unemployment to 9.6 percent, its highest level in ten years.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
632
the rise in the index in march was due mainly to the increase in services exports and goods imports and exports.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
426
the monetary committee discussed the domestic capital market, in which equity indices rose, and the yield on long-term government bonds and corporate bond spreads remained essentially unchanged, with a decline in the balance of tradable debt.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
288
germany and france actually recorded positive growth of 0.3 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
70
committee members are of the opinion that important factors in the increase in home prices at this time are a slowing of planning processes and the decline in the rate of marketing properties.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
167
forecasts of growth in europe were revised downwards, and according to the eurostat forecast, growth in the eurozone in 2009 is expected to be between minus one percent and zero, and in 2010, between 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
102
the growth rate of the money supply (m1) over the previous twelve months has been slowing since the beginning of the year and in october it stood at 5.6 percent, down from 11.5 percent in september.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
250
inflation expectations for the coming 12 months, from all sources, were higher in june than in may, but the developments during the period were uneven: inflation expectations derived from the capital market declined, while professional forecaster’s projections increased slightly after the cpi was published.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
832
against the background of continued growth in this balance and the absence of appropriate growth in allowances for doubtful debts in respect of housing credit, the supervisor of banks published a draft directive increasing the required risk weighting and provisioning on housing loans, and reducing the required capital allocation for guarantees in respect of homes already delivered to residents.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
916
they assessed that continuation of the appreciation will weigh on the return of inflation toward the midpoint of the target range.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
763
in june, the nonfinancial business sector issued bonds totaling nis 3.6 billion, higher than the average over the past 12 months (nis 2.8 billion), and foreign companies continued to issue bonds at a relatively high pace.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
84
from the previous interest rate decision through march 17, the shekel weakened by 11 percent in terms of the effective exchange rate, but after the bank of israel instituted dollar/shekel swap transactions, the volatility declined and the weakening of the shekel moderated to 3.4 percent since the previous interest rate decision.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
295
outstanding credit to households declined by 0.2 percent, to nis 360 billion.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
125
exports of goods and services increased by 5.6 percent—after declines of 10 percent and 5 percent, respectively, in the previous two quarters— bringing the figure back to the level it was at in the first quarter of 2011.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
845
in this context it should be noted that the transmission between a reduction in the bank of israel interest rate and a reduction in the interest changed to borrower by banks is weakened at such low rates of interest.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
191
another issue discussed was the global environment and the risks posed by it to the israeli economy.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
617
after taking all the above into consideration, the governor decided to raise the interest rate for august by 25 basis points to 4 percent, in order to support the return of inflation and inflation expectations to around the middle of the target range.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
64
on 4 december the bank of england cut its rate from 3 percent to 2 percent, and on 19 december the bank of japan reduced its rate by 0.2 percentage points to 0.1 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
709
in light of the indications of a slowdown in the growth rate of the israeli economy, led by a decline in exports against the background of greater uncertainty about world growth, and in light of the macroprudential measures introduced by the bank of israel and their implications for inflation, the governor decided to keep the rate of interest unchanged for december, at 2 percent.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
247
the committee discussed the data on economic activity, which indicate a continued robust rate of activity, with a slight decline in the most recent data.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
434
activity returned to its long term trend in most industries, but is below trend in the vulnerable proximity industries, particularly incoming tourism, hospitality, and culture.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
362
this contrasts with the usual trend of an increase in mortgages in the summer months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
215
tax revenues since the beginning of the year are some nis 11 billion ahead of the seasonal budget path.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
879
however, the forecast for world trade growth was revised downward, to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent, and the institution noted the concern of increased barriers to world trade.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
985
japan's economy continues to report positive data pointing to a recovery trend, and it seems that the economy, which had lagged behind the other asian economies, has started closing the gap in the last few months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
652
against this background it is more probable that the upward trend of interest rates will continue in many central banks throughout the world.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,007
316
this would be a continuance of the interest rises in the past few months and takes account of the time lag between implementation and effect.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,006
489
these cuts, against the background of the relatively stable inflation expectations for one year forward, had reduced the short term real interest rate to a low level, thus encouraging economic activity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
89
in addition, in light of the increase of only 1.2 percent in the core personal consumption expenditure (pce) index for may (which although higher than had been expected, is still not high), the chairman of the fed claims that the price increases (and their severe adverse effects on the purchasing power of us consumers) are temporary, and he therefore continues to feel more concerned over deflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
977
israel's sovereign risk premium as measured by the five-year cds spread increased slightly this month to 150 basis points, in contrast to cds spread declines in most countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
199
actual budget expenditure figures indicate a domestic deficit, excluding net credit granted in the year to date through july, of nis 9.3 billion, compared with a deficit of nis 3.6 billion in the corresponding period of 2011.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
277
nevertheless, there is evidence that the effects of the developments in the global economic environment are starting to filter through.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
878
in addition, the revision by the us commerce department of figures for the prior three years shows that gdp is currently only $13.5 trillion (not $14.3 trillion) and in effect is still lower than the level on the eve of the crisis in 2008.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
789
the bank of israel's composite state-of-the-economy index for september published in october rose by 1.2 percent (compared with the previous month), following increases of 1.1 percent in the august index and 0.9 percent in the july index.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
408
the makam yield for one year declined last month from 4.4 percent to 4.1 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
865
the purchasing managers index rose for the tenth month in succession, and reached exports by france and germany to asia.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
148
negative indicators include october data on foreign trade, and third-quarter data from the manufacturers association survey of expectations (see below).
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,010
894
the moderation in the rate on increase of home prices in recent months comes against the background of the continued increase in the number of building starts, the lagged effect of the increase in the interest rate, measures introduced by the bank of israel affecting mortgages, and steps taken by the ministry of finance in real estate taxation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
37
in brazil the central bank cut the interest rate by 50 b.p.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
776
no significant slowdown was seen, despite a sharp decline in the volume of transactions.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
380
the discussion centered on two major issues.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
851
the forecast for the primary variables was revised downward, though only slightly so.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
697
seven of the ten forecasters who updated their reports to the bank of israel after the publication of the june cpi expected the bank to increase the interest rate for august, while the others expected an increase in september.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
814
there is a high likelihood that the federal reserve will raise its rate by 0.25 percentage points at its next meeting on regarding yield gaps, nominal yields in the us stand in june at about 5.1 percent both for one-year and 10-year terms, so that the nominal yield gap between israel and the us ranges from 0.7 percentage points for one year to 1.4 percent in the long term.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,006
904
the amount of nonresidents’ activity in the makam market declined this month.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
252
nevertheless, the withdrawal of fiscal support and the continuing process of reducing leverage by banks are likely to hold demand down and thus represent a downside risk to the forecast recovery.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
929
the scope of transactions increased in january compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, and in march mortgage volume was high compared to preceding months.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
611
over the last year (may–july 2008 compared with may–july 2007) the index of manufacturing production has risen by 10.6 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
500
in march the imf published a forecast of negative world growth in 2009 of between 0.5 percent and 1 percent (annual rate), compared with its previous forecast in october 2008 of the bank of israel uses econometric models to test various scenarios.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
163
the data also indicate a rise in demand for workers with low earning capacity.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
280
since the beginning of the year, the seasonally adjusted cpi has increased by 1.9 percent, consistent with an annual rate of inflation of 2.1 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,010
942
the tel aviv 25 index fell by 14 percent, a move similar to that of us stock market indices.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,011
596
this occurred against the background of a slump in exports, a sharp reduction in private consumption, a decline in investments, and a large drop in inventories.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
604
they noted, among other things, the low level of investment in residential construction (despite the increase in building starts in the second quarter).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
217
some participants noted that after a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate for february, they thought it likely that the process of interest rate reductions would be coming to a close.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
395
in the last twelve months the cpi rose by 3.6 percent, and the wholesale price index by 7.6 percent, the latter reflecting price increases in most of the principal industries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
997
inflation expectations fell steeply this month, in light of the expected slowdown in economic activity and the fall in commodity prices.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,011
475
in addition, the committee members noted that the upward trend in mortgage interest rates is continuing and in parallel there appears to be some slowdown in mortgage volumes.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
203
four committee members supported the proposal to keep the interest rate unchanged, and two committee members supported increasing the interest rate to 0.25 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
850
a discussion developed regarding the forces acting to weaken the shekel, including the continued rise in the us interest rate, a process that worked, among other things, to reduce hedging activities among institutional investors, and the forces acting to strengthen it, including growth in exports.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
963
the investment houses expect that deflation will continue into next year.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
982
since the date of the last interest rate decision (29 october) until 22 november, a few days before the current decision, the shekel appreciated against the dollar, from nis 3.99 to the dollar to nis 3.89, a 2.6 percent change.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
445
the committee decided to leave the other policy measures previously decided upon in place.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
507
national accounts data show in the first quarter of 2007 there was a further rapid increase in exports, a sharp rise in investments in the principal industries, and further expansion in private consumption.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
645
the forecasters predict that twelve months hence the interest rate will be 2.8 percent.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
196
the yield on one-year makam increased to an average of about 1.1 percent, from about 0.9 percent in april.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
708
in contrast, the increase in commodity and energy prices is expected to have an effect on the inflation rate in the near term and draw it near the center of the target range.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
785
the yield gap between local currency unindexed ten-year bonds and ten-year us treasury bonds contracted from 163 b.p.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
423
the bank of israel research department quarterly staff forecast, which was compiled in march, was not revised, as there were no extraordinary developments regarding the projection.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
683
a bloomberg survey shows that most investors believe that china will face a banking crisis within the next five years.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
415
these tax increases are likely to be reflected in one-off price increases in the next few months.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,009
895
the nominal wage increased by 0.8 percent in july– september compared with the previous three months, and the real wage increased by the effect of legislative changes).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
693
in its announcement, the bank highlighted the following main considerations underlying the decision to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.75 percent: - the inflation environment reflected in increased actual prices and expectations for one year ahead remains stable.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
993
in the twelve months ending in february, the m1 monetary aggregate (cash held by the public and demand deposits) increased by 12.9 percent, and the m2 aggregate (m1 plus unindexed deposits of up to one year) increased by 6.9 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
781
furthermore, the weakness of the euro against the shekel makes israel's exports to europe less profitable and has an adverse impact on exporters' competitiveness vis-àvis european competitors.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
400
according to data form the us department of transportation, the stock of vehicles held by households is approaching unprecedentedly low levels, so that the us economy may enjoy the benefit of support from a continued increase in vehicle production.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
132
with that, after publication of the october cpi, expectations rose slightly to 1.9 percent.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
55
- factors acting to push up inflation in recent months are expected to bring inflation back to within its target range during 2007, and to raise it close to the upper boundary of the range in 2008.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,007
981
regarding budgetary pressures, it was also noted that adhering to the budget framework––and with it, the deficit––would help the economy remain stable and strengthen foreign and local investors' confidence in the economy.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,006
847
however, the (continued) decline in goods exports and in industrial production were notably negative aspects among the components.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
193
the slowdown in global growth intensified, against the background of the sharp fall in demand.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,009
696
the bank of israel staff forecast is that inflation in 2011 will be 2.6 percent, with a gradual increase in the interest rate to about 3.3 percent in the last quarter of the year.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
431
based on the equation, the cpi housing component (i.e., rentals) is expected to rise faster than was estimated previously.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
620
inflation expectations and forecasts for the coming year are around the upper bound of the target range.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
660
he was of the opinion that an interest rate lower than 0.1 percent is more appropriate due to the magnitude of the crisis and the adverse impact, anomalous in its magnitude, on the employment level.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
388
although the markets have been calm in the past few days with the fall in share prices moderating, it is not clear if the rise in risk aversion will continue or if it is only temporary.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,006
177
global macroeconomic data presented a mixed picture this month.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
859