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in its baseline scenario for the global economy, the snb expects growth in the coming quarters to remain in line with potential | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 265 |
it is therefore still clearly above the range the snb equates with price stability | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 374 |
at present, the financial crisis has not had any impact on the granting of domestic loans | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 769 |
equally, the energy situation in europe could deteriorate again in q4 2023 and q1 2024 | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 825 |
the monetary and fiscal policy measures adopted worldwide are providing important support in this regard | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 715 |
the increasingly tighter monetary policy in many countries should also help inflation gradually return to more moderate levels | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 834 |
the higher commodity prices are likely to weigh on consumption and increase companies production costs | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 417 |
after this step, the interest target range will again exhibit a spread of 100 basis points | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 730 |
the measures announced at the weekend by the federal government, finma and the snb have put a halt to the crisis | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 791 |
owing to a slight deterioration in the outlook for the global economy, medium-term inflation is somewhat lower than predicted in september | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 881 |
economic development in switzerland lost considerable momentum in the first three quarters of 2001 | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 752 |
the swiss national bank is increasing the target range for the three-month libor with immediate effect by 0.25 percentage points to 0.501.50 | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 667 |
for 2018, the snb now expects inflation of 0.5, compared to 0.6 in the third quarter | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 880 |
these higher prices for imports could impact upon consumer prices | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 187 |
as a result of the stronger growth momentum in the us and the emerging economies, the snb revised its global growth assumptions upwards for 2011 | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 535 |
thus, the underutilisation of economic capacity should decline only gradually | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 195 |
in switzerland, gdp growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 356 |
the snb continues to 14 march 2013 2 monitor the momentum on the domestic residential mortgage and real estate markets closely | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 27 |
the resulting climate of uncertainty will prompt households to exercise more caution and will lead to a slowdown in consumer spending | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 555 |
developments abroad represent the main risk | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 995 |
the swiss franc is stable in trade-weighted terms | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 99 |
against this backdrop, the snb with its monetary policy is ensuring price stability and supporting the swiss economy | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 882 |
the snb is keeping the snb policy rate and interest on sight deposits at the snb at 0.75 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 504 |
after having averaged 0.6 in the fourth quarter of 2003, the core inflation rate calculated by the national bank also dropped slightly to 0.4 in january | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 810 |
after that, it is lower due to the now tighter monetary policy | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 452 |
this reflects the efforts of the snb to provide the interbank market with sufficient liquidity as a response to the increased demand for liquidity which, for its part, was due to a climate in which financial sector agents had lost trust in one another | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 602 |
in its baseline scenario for the global economy, the snb anticipates that further waves of infection will be successfully prevented | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 631 |
in many emerging economies, too, economic activity was rather sluggish | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 410 |
the international environment has deteriorated since the last monetary policy assessment in december, and the impact of the crisis in the us real estate market is worsening | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 321 |
investment and exports are the main factors accounting for the slowdown, while consumption has continued to rise significantly | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 28 |
consequently, the path of the new forecast initially lies above that of the december forecast | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 951 |
due to the substantial risks associated with the future path of the international economy, financial markets and energy prices, this forecast involves considerable uncertainties | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 630 |
this is based on the assumption that no measures will have to be introduced that would additionally impair economic activity | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 898 |
consequently, no inflation risks can be identified for switzerland in the foreseeable future | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 456 |
for 2015, the snb has revised its inflation forecast downwards by 1 percentage point to 1.1 | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 447 |
the target range for the three-month libor will be left unchanged at 0.00.25 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 499 |
this was followed by a strong recovery in the third quarter | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 436 |
rp 36, is considered to start on the 20th calendar day three months before the beginning of the respective interest period | irrelevant | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 772 |
given the favourable inflation outlook in the medium term, the national bank can afford to do so | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 644 |
in the second quarter 2018, gdp once again grew faster than estimated potential output, at an annualised rate of 2.9 | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 213 |
the forecast assumes that the three-month libor will remain at 0.75 over the entire forecast horizon and that the swiss franc will weaken further | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 220 |
real economic growth stabilised at the beginning of this year | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 11 |
in the current situation, the inflation outlook remains subject to high uncertainty | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 806 |
for the current year, the forecast has risen marginally to 0.4, from 0.3 in the previous quarter | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 249 |
the national bank now anticipates that economic growth will be just under 1 for 2003 | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 482 |
the snb is targeting a three-month libor of around 2.75, after this rate has climbed as high as 2.9 | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 389 |
moreover, given the fact that the price of oil has been surprisingly immune to the global economic slowdown, it expects higher inflation in industrialised countries | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 746 |
however, a more extensive analysis of the available economic indicators points to an ongoing moderate recovery in the final months of the year; developments on the labour market support this view | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 121 |
the economic recovery should therefore regain momentum in the course of next year | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 952 |
at the same time, upward pressure on the swiss franc with the exception of the exchange rate against the us dollar has abated | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 231 |
the favourable outlook for the labour market should continue to impact positively on income and consumption, and corporate investments are set to advance further | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 129 |
despite the higher interest rate, the new forecast exceeds that of december 2005 until the end of the year | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 36 |
the labour market remained robust, and overall production capacity has been well utilised | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 76 |
inflationary pressure from abroad will remain weak | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 41 |
gdp shrank again in many countries in the first quarter, and remained significantly below pre-crisis levels | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 479 |
bridging loans can prevent liquidity shortfalls caused by the crisis from leading to insolvencies | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 387 |
the national banks inflation forecasts are embedded in a scenario for the global economy, which according to the snbs assessment represents the most likely development | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 96 |
for example, the energy situation could worsen again | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 463 |
the national bank is aware of the fact that the expansive monetary policy it has been pursuing for a considerable period of time has a strong impact on the real estate sector | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 360 |
it will continue to provide the economy with a generous supply of liquidity and, if necessary, to purchase swiss franc bonds with a view to reducing risk premia on long-term debt instruments issued by private sector borrowers | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 609 |
discussions with company representatives conducted by the snbs delegates for regional economic relations also suggest a moderate improvement of the economic situation | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 618 |
for 2003, the national bank is anticipating economic growth of just over 1, while zero growth is to be expected in the current year | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,002 | 871 |
the snb will continue to monitor developments on the mortgage and real estate markets closely | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 971 |
in the coming year, it expects the economy to expand by 1.5 to 2 | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 82 |
as the risks are still pointing mainly downward, the national bank intends to maintain its expansionary monetary policy | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 3 |
the economic recovery in switzerland expected for 2003 may be delayed | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 552 |
for 2019, it now expects inflation of 1.1, compared to 1.0 last quarter | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 355 |
the swiss national bank snb is maintaining its minimum exchange rate of chf 1.20 per euro and is leaving the target range for the three-month libor unchanged at 0.00.25 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 19 |
in the second quarter of 2020, gross domestic product gdp was approximately 1020 below its end-2019 level in most countries | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 551 |
during the course of 2009, the new forecast drops below the previous one again | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 557 |
with exports rising gradually, followed by an increase in equipment investment, the economic upswing in switzerland should take hold next year | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 468 |
in view of the medium-term inflation outlook, it can afford to do so for the time being | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 474 |
while, on the one hand, structural changes in the economy are having more of a dampening effect on prices, the high level of utilisation of resources and exchange rate movements, on the other, are exacerbating the risk of higher production costs being increasingly passed on to prices | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 343 |
the swiss national bank snb will maintain the minimum exchange rate of chf 1.20 per euro and will enforce it with the utmost determination | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 228 |
during the first half of the current year, the growth rate dropped back, after having reached 3.3 in 2007 | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 332 |
the snb is tightening its monetary policy further and is raising the snb policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 1.5 | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 2 |
inflation has risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4 in may | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 166 |
for 2019 the forecast stands at 0.4, for 2020 at 0.1 and for 2021 at 0.5 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 641 |
the snb policy rate change applies from tomorrow, 23 september 2022 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 484 |
for example, inflation could rise further and thus weigh even more heavily on real incomes and consumer demand | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 651 |
moreover, a not inconsiderable risk of deflation remains | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 782 |
for 2017, however, the forecast is down to 0.1, from 0.2 in the previous quarter | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 854 |
the snb has revised downwards its growth expectations for the uk and the euro area | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 902 |
the economy has remained relatively robust despite the deterioration in the world economy, but the slowdown is likely to continue over the months to come | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 1 |
as the other loans remained steady, aggregate lending grew more slowly than mortgage loans | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 923 |
foreign exchange markets are very volatile | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 958 |
in line with the snbs expectations, the global economy has strengthened further | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 809 |
the inflation potential, however, will remain modest within the short term | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 180 |
the sluggish economic environment in europe, in particular, has had a dampening effect | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 874 |
this would be the strongest decline since the oil crisis in the 1970s | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 346 |
residential investment property prices also rose, albeit at a somewhat slower pace | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 856 |
in the fourth quarter of 2014, growth in the us remained above potential | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 765 |
for 2016, an inflation rate of 0.5 is expected, and for 2017, the forecast is now at 0.3 instead of 0.4 | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 975 |
russias invasion of ukraine has led to a strong increase in uncertainty worldwide | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 643 |
in the us, growth became more broad based | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 800 |
the swiss economy is also in a sharp recession | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 188 |
it puts average annual inflation at 1.2 for 2024, 0.6 for 2025 and 0.7 for 2026 cf | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 671 |
the swiss franc is still significantly overvalued | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 471 |
despite the interest rate lift, monetary policy remains expansionary and supports the upswing | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 533 |
in switzerland, gdp rose slightly in the second quarter, after having declined somewhat in the previous quarter | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 113 |
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