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global economic growth continued in the second quarter in line with the snbs expectations | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 549 |
despite the recent increase in the number of encouraging economic signs, uncertainty as to future developments remains considerable | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 476 |
the swiss national bank snb is maintaining its minimum exchange rate of chf 1.20 per euro | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 663 |
the labour market is showing signs of improvement | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,006 | 820 |
several indicators were already pointing to a brighter outlook for the economic situation, and second-quarter economic data now confirm the picture of a broad-based recovery | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,005 | 736 |
swiss gdp growth was solid in the first quarter of 2023 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 867 |
the forecast puts average annual inflation at 2.1 for 2023, 1.9 for 2024 and 1.6 for 2025 cf | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 32 |
september 2012 2 downside risks to the swiss economy will also stay high in the near term | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 990 |
gdp thus rose only slightly in the fourth quarter of 2020, this following robust growth in the previous quarter | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 676 |
however, for the coming quarters the snb expects only moderate growth in global economic activity by longer-term comparison | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 234 |
moreover, momentum in the swiss residential mortgage and real estate markets remains strong, and has led to a further increase in risks for financial stability | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 833 |
banks sight deposits held at the snb will be remunerated at the snb policy rate up to a certain threshold, and at 1.0 above this threshold | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 892 |
essentially, the snbs conditional inflation forecast is unchanged from its september forecast | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 472 |
overall, inflation in switzerland is currently being driven mainly by higher prices for domestic services | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 201 |
in doing so, it is countering inflationary pressure, which has increased again over the medium term | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 745 |
the forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.4 for 2024, 1.2 for 2025 and 1.1 for 2026 cf | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 678 |
equally, a renewed increase in geopolitical tensions could result in weaker development of global economic activity | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 959 |
in addition, the consequences of the earthquake catastrophe in japan are, at this stage, difficult to assess | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 710 |
during the past year, the national bank has markedly eased its monetary policy, lowering the target range for the three-month libor by a total of 1.75 percentage points | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 159 |
with a view to further increasing the banks room for manoeuvre, the snb is examining whether a relaxation of the countercyclical capital buffer would be possible despite the risks on the mortgage and real estate markets | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 368 |
by contrast, exports of goods and services stagnated | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 185 |
thereafter, forecast inflation rises more rapidly than in the december forecast, due to the interest rate reductions since the last monetary policy assessment | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 728 |
the inflation forecast shows that the rate of inflation will drop below the 2 mark in 2009 | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 735 |
at the same time, some risks have had to be weighted more heavily than in the december assessment | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 492 |
the economic signals for the coming months remain favourable | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 505 |
inflation measured by the national consumer price index cpi decreased from 1.5 in the second quarter 2001 to 0.4 in the fourth quarter 2001 | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 168 |
since the indicators for the demand for labour are still at a high level, the rise in employment is likely to continue in the first part of 2008 | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 38 |
in this environment, unemployment should continue to rise slightly, while the utilisation of production capacity is likely to decline slightly | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 101 |
subdued demand from abroad, the loss of purchasing power due to inflation, and more restrictive financial conditions are having a dampening effect | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 233 |
the new conditional forecast subsequently moves closer to that of the last quarter, and is in line with it from 2018 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 266 |
it is still aiming to keep the libor within the lower end of this range, i.e | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 470 |
finally, there are still important downside risks to growth from the war in ukraine and the pandemic | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 688 |
growth was primarily driven by manufacturing, which benefited from dynamic economic developments abroad and the weaker swiss franc | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 707 |
for 2024, the snb currently expects growth of between 0.5 and 1 | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 278 |
however, at present there is considerable uncertainty with regard to assessment of the inflation outlook | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 570 |
the revised gdp figures for recent years reveal stronger growth momentum than was originally reported | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 670 |
the other major economic areas also recorded favourable economic activity in the third quarter | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 675 |
on the one hand, the unexpectedly low rates of inflation for october and november are serving as a lower departure point for the forecast | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 144 |
the us economy is growing at a slightly slower pace than expected, and the downside risks have increased | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 918 |
annual inflation measured by the national consumer price index inflation rate compared with the previous year was very stable in the second half of 2003 and averaged 0.5 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 141 |
consequently, the economy is progressing faster than its long-term average potential, with a high level of resource utilisation | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 263 |
this scenario for the global economy is still subject to significant risks | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 128 |
the snb will continue to monitor the development of inflation closely, and will adjust its monetary policy again if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 607 |
however, the downturn in the international economy and the measures to contain the virus will lead to a marked decline in economic activity in switzerland as well in the first half of the year | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 108 |
the swiss national bank is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 105 |
year-on-year inflation, as measured by the national consumer price index, dropped to 0.5 in the second quarter of 2003 from 1.0 in the first quarter | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 35 |
the snbs new conditional inflation forecast is therefore above that of december, particularly for 2022 cf | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 839 |
moreover, public spending will play a countercyclical role | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 537 |
the situation varies considerably from one industry to another, however | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 495 |
the further deterioration in the inflation outlook stems partly from the unfavourable prospects for the global economy and a more pronounced underutilisation of production capacity in switzerland, and partly from the fact that a depreciation of the swiss franc has failed to materialise as expected | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 979 |
global economic growth has slowed markedly recently | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 271 |
however, goods exports are likely to pick up in the next few months as the global economy recovers | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 8 |
the latest rise in inflation is principally due to higher prices for goods, especially energy and food | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 737 |
this slowdown is on the one hand attributable to the high level of inflation, which is weighing on purchasing power and thus reducing demand | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 523 |
the swiss national bank is lowering the snb policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25 | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 968 |
for 2012, the inflation rate will amount to 0.7 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 279 |
subdued demand from abroad, the loss of purchasing power due to inflation, and more restrictive financing conditions are having a dampening effect | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 853 |
for 2013, the snb now anticipates slightly lower inflation of 0.3 | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 899 |
for the year as a whole, however, the swiss economy grew by 3.7 | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 282 |
the exchange rate is important to the national bank | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 758 |
this situation is likely to ease over the medium term, however, with inflation abroad dropping back to more moderate levels | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 375 |
in july, it contracted to 0.3 and amounted to 0.5 in august | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 937 |
the european economy has also undergone a significant contraction | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 92 |
in these exceptional circumstances, the snbs expansionary monetary policy is more necessary than ever for ensuring appropriate monetary conditions in switzerland | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 371 |
the cautiously optimistic baseline scenario continues to be subject to considerable downside risks; this is due to political uncertainty and structural problems in a number of advanced economies | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 190 |
in the advanced economies, expansionary monetary policy and the robust situation on the labour market are lending support, as is fiscal policy in some countries | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 546 |
for 2011 as a whole, real gdp growth of 1.52.0 can be expected | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 804 |
in its baseline scenario for the global economy, the snb assumes that energy prices will remain high for the time being, but that there will be no acute energy shortages in the major economic areas | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 325 |
against expectations, the low energy prices have had only a limited stimulatory effect on household consumer spending | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 568 |
loans other than mortgage loans, referred to as other loans, declined by 1.6 in july | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 404 |
an appreciation of the swiss franc would compromise price stability and would have serious consequences for the swiss economy | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 352 |
the new forecast puts average annual inflation at 3 for 2022, 2.4 for 2023 and 1.7 for 2024 cf | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 866 |
consumer price inflation edged down worldwide due to lower oil prices | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 208 |
the improvement is beginning to assist the swiss export sector, while the domestic sector is performing well | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 679 |
given the uncertain geopolitical situation, the price of oil is likely to fluctuate around usd 30 a barrel for some time yet, before coming back down to around usd 25 a barrel | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 145 |
however, although the growth in the us in the past few months has been surprisingly positive, economic performance has been disappointing in europe | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 567 |
it is continuing its generous and flexible provision of liquidity to the swiss franc money market | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 793 |
inflation in many countries remains above central banks targets | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 6 |
if global activity proves disappointing or the turmoil on the financial markets increase, downside risks will again emerge for the economy and price stability in switzerland | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 329 |
due to the deepening of the global recession, the snb is now forecasting a contraction in gdp of between 2.5 and 3 for this year | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 857 |
for 2020, the snb now expects an inflation rate of 0.2, compared to 0.7 last quarter | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 653 |
therefore, even though capacity utilisation rates have fallen slightly and staff shortages have become less acute, it is still true to say that capacity utilisation remains at levels above the historical norm | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 612 |
equally, it cannot be ruled out that inflation will remain elevated for longer in some countries | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 104 |
in doing so, it is aiming to act decisively to counter an excessive appreciation of the swiss franc against the euro, since an appreciation of this kind would result in an undesired tightening of monetary conditions | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 21 |
growth was curbed in part by temporary factors | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 517 |
the lower oil and gas prices and the stronger swiss franc are having a dampening effect over the short term | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 514 |
in the final months of 2009, short-time work declined slightly, and unemployment did not rise any further | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 69 |
the labour market continues to be a mainstay of the economy | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 165 |
the positive development of the economy should thus continue overall | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 301 |
switzerlands economy has continued to recover | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 648 |
nevertheless, there are significant risks to this positive baseline scenario, primarily in connection with political uncertainties and protectionist tendencies | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 66 |
for 2020, the snb anticipates an inflation rate of 0.7, compared to 0.6 last quarter | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 680 |
imbalances persist on the mortgage and real estate markets | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 900 |
at 0.25, for the time being | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 450 |
it has gained further momentum and is becoming increasingly broadbased | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 68 |
for all other sight deposit account holders not mentioned under method 1, the snb sets a_ fixed threshold | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 700 |
the new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of december | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 483 |
assuming that the three-month libor rate will remain stable at 0.25, average annual inflation is expected to amount to 0.6 this year, 0.4 next year, and 1.2 in 2005 | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 729 |
there is still considerable uncertainty over how the situation will develop | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 734 |
overall, the new conditional inflation forecast differs little from that of september | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 58 |
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