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given this weakening, appreciable underutilisation of production capacity may be expected in the short term | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 157 |
the economic recovery is therefore likely to regain momentum from the second quarter | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 269 |
this small increase must also be seen in the context of high growth in the second quarter | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 336 |
nonetheless, on the whole, capacity utilisation remains unsatisfactory | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 586 |
moreover, the outlook for the emerging economies has deteriorated, and events in the middle east could push up the oil price | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 908 |
growth dynamism continued to wane | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 14 |
the new forecast puts average annual inflation at 2.6 for 2023, and 2.0 for 2024 and 2025 cf | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 582 |
while gdp declined strongly in the second quarter, mortgage lending and residential property prices continued to rise | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 293 |
interest on sight deposits held by banks at the snb currently corresponds to the snb policy rate and remains at 0.75 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 34 |
notwithstanding positive signals emanating from the us, global economic development is still subject to risks | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 706 |
in the short term, this is due to the recent lower-than-expected inflation | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 326 |
however, the snb anticipates that, as abroad, there will be only a partial recovery for the time being, and gdp will not return quickly to its pre-crisis level | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 886 |
despite a difficult climate worldwide, economic activity in switzerland stabilised somewhat during the second half of 2002 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 682 |
up to the first quarter of 2017, the path of inflation remains almost the same | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 931 |
on the other hand, given the high level of capacity utilisation and movements in the exchange rate, there is a danger that higher production costs will increasingly be passed on to prices | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 181 |
the temporary narrowing of the target band from 100 to 75 basis points was prompted by technical factors | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 80 |
over the entire forecast horizon, the inflation forecast is within the range of price stability cf | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 497 |
in many advanced economies, inflation moved into negative territory at the beginning of 2015 | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 63 |
in addition to the expected progress with vaccination programmes, the monetary and fiscal policy measures introduced worldwide are an important source of support | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 79 |
this is prompting the snb to purchase swiss franc bonds issued by private sector borrowers in order to bring about a relaxation of conditions on the capital markets | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 406 |
for this reason, the snb has decided to maintain the monetary policy adopted in march | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 786 |
in particular, the high inflation in some countries could be more persistent than expected, necessitating a further tightening of monetary policy there | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 311 |
it will continue to provide the swiss franc money market with a generous and flexible supply of liquidity | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 986 |
it will therefore remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary, in order to influence monetary conditions | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 821 |
the healthy economy in the neighbouring countries and exchange rate developments have been contributing factors | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 33 |
stronger second-round effects and the fact that inflationary pressure from abroad has increased again mean that, despite the raising of the snb policy rate, the new forecast is higher through to mid-2025 than in december | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 296 |
this is because the utilisation of resources is somewhat higher | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 62 |
however, the inflation forecast shows that the expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained indefinitely without compromising medium and long-term price stability | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 211 |
nevertheless, gdp remained significantly below pre-crisis levels in most countries | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 339 |
the negative interest rate and the snbs willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market are intended to make swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the currency | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 542 |
the temporary narrowing of the libor target range, which now stands at 75 basis points compared with the usual 100 basis points, is due to the fact that a negative libor is not technically possible | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 56 |
the snbs monetary policy thus remains as expansionary as before | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 396 |
owing to data adjustments, the new forecast is slightly lower overall than the december projection | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 768 |
unless otherwise specified, a change in the negative interest rate will apply with immediate effect, and the affected sight deposit account balances will be subject to the new interest rate on the day of the announcement | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 628 |
moreover, although the financial industry is well into the process of recovery, another deterioration cannot be entirely ruled out | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 764 |
despite restrained momentum in recent quarters, imbalances on the mortgage and real estate market increased slightly due to comparatively weak growth in fundamentals | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 545 |
on the other, the decline in inflation in the euro area and the slight fall in the oil price are also helping to dampen the inflation outlook | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 340 |
the swiss national bank leaves the target range for the three-month libor rate unchanged at 0.251.25 | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 742 |
in switzerland, the economy continued to develop favourably in the third quarter | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 30 |
the positive baseline scenario for the global economy continues to be subject to risks | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 657 |
for 2018, the snb anticipates inflation of 0.4, compared to 0.5 in the previous quarter | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 241 |
unemployment is likely to rise again, and production factors will remain underutilised for some time yet | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 324 |
against this backdrop, unemployment has increased slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 725 |
the actual inflationary pressure is currently underestimated somewhat by the cpi | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 449 |
the second interest rate rise by 25 basis points now announced will reverse the interest rate cut of march 2003, which was made under extraordinary circumstances | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 407 |
the current solid growth momentum is thus expected to continue in the coming quarters | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 53 |
the conditional inflation forecast shows that there is no threat to price stability in the short term | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 200 |
while the statistics confirm lower growth in overall lending, they do not show an actual decline | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 97 |
the snb expects a rise of around 1.5 in gdp for the coming year | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 150 |
in the short term, inflation will dip into negative territory sooner, owing to the effects of the earlier currency appreciation, which have been stronger than expected | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 194 |
the national bank last adjusted its monetary policy on 26 july 2002, when it lowered the target range by 50 basis points | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 747 |
despite a considerable easing of tensions on the international financial markets, global economic growth was rather weak in the fourth quarter | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 310 |
at the same time, the inflation potential is modest within the short term | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 7 |
for sight deposit account holders subject to minimum reserve requirements domestic_ _banks2 the exemption threshold is calculated as a basis component minus a cash holdings_ component | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 805 |
in the emerging economies, too, economic activity was positive overall | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 390 |
inflation has declined further since the beginning of the year, and stood at 1.2 in february | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 245 |
the pace of economic growth could slow further in the third and fourth quarters in the wake of stagnating exports | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,001 | 18 |
the situation on the labour market is not likely to undergo any sustained changes, and the unemployment rate should rise only slightly | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 341 |
in the area of domestic demand, the combined softness in both private consumption and investment should result in a sluggish gdp | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 286 |
overall production capacity has been well utilised | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 461 |
the broad-based, healthy economic situation had a positive impact on the labour market | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 656 |
it has reacted rapidly and unequivocally to the deterioration in the economic situation and the upward pressure on the swiss franc | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,004 | 363 |
overall, the revised quarterly estimates for gdp suggest a somewhat stronger recovery of the swiss economy since the middle of last year | hawkish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 940 |
inflationary pressure is likely to remain moderate | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 649 |
the conditional forecast assumes that the three-month libor remains at 0.75 over the entire forecast horizon, and that the swiss franc weakens | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,015 | 15 |
global economic growth was weaker than expected in the first quarter of 2015, and this development had a detrimental impact on world trade | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 342 |
this decline, however, is partly due to special factors, notably the strong influence of clearance sales prices for clothing | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 798 |
the higher commodity prices will lift inflation further in the short term | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 873 |
these forecasts assume that the three-month libor will remain at zero over the entire forecast horizon, and that the swiss franc will weaken | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 123 |
the situation on the foreign exchange market continues to be fragile | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 906 |
at the same time, a worsening in the tight supply of raw materials could lead to a further rise in inflation globally | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 722 |
this is mainly due to the fact that developments in both the swiss and the global economies are less negative than had been expected | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 110 |
the snb is assuming that global economic growth will gradually firm over the course of next year | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 31 |
the swiss franc has strengthened since the beginning of the year | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 664 |
in addition, the snb is leaving the target range for the three-month libor at 0.00.25 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 720 |
consequently, the snb welcomes the federal council decision to make available a countercyclical capital buffer which can counter adverse developments on the domestic credit market | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 521 |
global economic growth was moderate in the second quarter of this year | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 175 |
various signals indicate that economic activity has picked up again somewhat since may with the loosening of containment measures | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 392 |
as a result, inflation will be higher in 2011 and, particularly, in 2012, if the current expansionary monetary policy is maintained indefinitely | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 817 |
the situation on the mortgage and real estate markets still requires the full attention of the snb | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,011 | 953 |
the snbs baseline scenario anticipates that the containment measures in switzerland will be eased further in the coming months, and that there will be no renewed worsening of the pandemic situation and tightening of the measures thereafter | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 328 |
taking into account the inflation differential between switzerland and its trading partners, the real effective exchange rate of the swiss franc has returned to the level of 2006 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 126 |
it is projecting an inflation rate of 0.8 for 2016, compared with 0.5 in the december forecast | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 4 |
in switzerland, as expected, the fourth quarter of 2013 saw a weakening of growth momentum, largely as a result of a decline in exports, which led to a corresponding decrease in value added in the manufacturing industry | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,014 | 889 |
for the second half of the year, and in particular for 2011, however, the snb now expects a marked slowdown in growth | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,010 | 989 |
in switzerland, a perceptible economic upswing is only to be expected in the course of 2004 | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 726 |
unemployment will rise further this year | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 414 |
profit margins are still under pressure at many companies, and the willingness to invest and the demand for labour remain commensurately subdued | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 965 |
the forecast now stands at 0.2 for 2021, 0.4 for 2022 and 0.5 for 2023 | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 661 |
the snb is anticipating a continuation of the recovery | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 9 |
exemption threshold furthermore, under method 1, the threshold shall not be less than the basic minimum reserve requirement of the last rp | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 197 |
this phenomenon is likely to reverse in the first quarter of this year | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 435 |
the price of oil has risen again | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 553 |
this positive development is likely to continue in the coming months | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 887 |
economic growth in the us is unlikely to pick up speed before the spring of 2003; after that it should gradually regain its potential | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 160 |
15 march 2007 4 with todays decision to increase the three-month libor by 25 basis points, the snb has maintained its monetary policy course of gradual normalisation | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 637 |
developments on the labour market also remained positive | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 950 |
however, it has increased its inflation forecast and is now expecting an average rate of 2.7 in 2008 | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 799 |
the swiss national bank snb is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, with the aim of stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 88 |
any tightening of monetary conditions is inappropriate in this depressed environment | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 487 |
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