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999
imported goods and services in particular contributed to the decline
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
134
its current assumptions are based on growth rates that are slightly higher than those foreseen in june
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,009
522
in the second quarter, the swiss economy posted growth of 2.5 on an annualised basis
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
422
for 2020, it anticipates an inflation rate of 1.9
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
239
the healthy economy will stimulate the labour market again this year and result in a further drop in the unemployment rate
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,007
996
since monetary policy has been expansionary for a long time now, the inflationary risk will intensify in the future
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,005
146
consequently, in order to ensure price stability in the long term, the snb will probably have to continue its policy of interest rate normalisation
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,007
218
unemployment registered another slight increase
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
290
the target range for the three-month libor remains at 0.000.25
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,012
783
on the assumption of an unchanged three-month libor of 2.00, it expects annual inflation to reach 0.4 in 2007 and 0.9 in 2008
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,006
473
the snb expects the moderate growth in the global economy to sustain over the coming quarters
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
315
it remains a pillar of the economy
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,002
815
the libor has declined, in line with the snbs stated intention, which is to bring the libor down gradually to the lower end of the target range
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
909
according to a provisional assessment by seco, real gross domestic product gdp in the fourth quarter of 2006 grew at an annualised rate of 1.8 compared with the previous period
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
934
in switzerland, real gdp in the third quarter increased again following a temporary downturn
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
402
the rapid deterioration in the economic situation and the decline in commodity prices have also led to a clear downward revision of the inflation forecast
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,009
510
the forecast is still associated with considerable uncertainties
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
732
since the intensification of the us mortgage crisis, yields on confederation bonds have fallen significantly
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,007
26
for the current year, inflation is forecast at 1.1, a 0.1 percentage point rise on last quarter
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
39
in addition, the snb is leaving the target range for the three-month libor unchanged at 0.00.25
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
86
forecast uncertainties remain high and risks are still to the downside
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
47
while growth in real estate prices weakened overall in the second quarter, growth in mortgage lending was virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
807
the recession continued in the euro area
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
957
therefore, despite the easing of the situation, the negative interest rate and the snbs willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary remain essential
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
903
orders received and the order backlog in industry still fall short of the desired level, and demand for export goods continues to be modest
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,003
526
the situation on the labour market has also continued to improve
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
933
the war in ukraine has been a significant factor here, too, in that the prices of many commodities have risen as a result
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
454
among other things, this decrease reflects the appreciation of the swiss franc over the last three months
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
606
as is the case with the global economy, the risks for this scenario remain to the downside
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
941
the growth of the global economy has slowed substantially in the course of the second quarter
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
298
turning to switzerland, economic developments in recent months have been in line with snb expectations
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
702
it is also important to understand that the uncertainty of the forecast increases with the duration of the forecasting horizon
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,003
142
by raising the target range, the national bank is ensuring that the inflation outlook will remain favourable
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,007
273
the swiss national bank snb is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
943
these factors have had an increasingly negative effect on both business and financial market sentiment in recent months
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
223
nevertheless, momentum is likely to be weak in q4 2020 and q1 2021
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
154
private consumption has picked up noticeably, somewhat exceeding the long-term average
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,005
103
the situation on the financial markets has eased somewhat recently
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
724
the development of prices in the middle of the three-year forecasting horizon is primarily determined by economic performance
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,005
369
overall, the swiss franc is still significantly overvalued, despite a slight depreciation
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
502
through to the second quarter of 2007, this curve is a little higher than for june
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,006
44
both led to lower expectations regarding policy rates in the major currency areas
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
532
economic activity in switzerland is developing in line with the national banks expectations
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,004
106
the national bank is watching the expansion of liquidity carefully
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,003
558
the structural change underway in china could continue to hold back global manufacturing and investment activity
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
259
while, on the one hand, structural changes in the economy are having more of a dampening effect on prices, the high level of capacity utilisation and exchange rate movements, on the other, are exacerbating the risk of higher production costs being increasingly passed on to prices
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,007
616
in this environment, unemployment will probably rise slightly, and the utilisation of production capacity is likely to decline somewhat
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
114
despite the sluggish development in the first quarter of 2005, the snb still expects the economy to recover during the course of the year, with an increase in momentum in the second half
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,005
795
the snb is keeping a close watch on movements in the monetary aggregates
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
338
the crf and the loans guaranteed by the federal government have together contributed significantly towards ensuring the supply of credit and liquidity to the economy
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
155
this should guarantee price stability in the longer term
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,006
186
it is reminding them that in assessing the viability of carrying the debt burden the fact that interest rates are exceptionally low by historical standards must be taken into account
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
222
the national bank has decided to leave the target range for the three-month libor rate unchanged at 0.25 - 1.25
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,002
162
the snb policy rate change applies from tomorrow, 17 june 2022
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,022
862
the slower pace of global economic growth was also felt in switzerland, with the first official gdp estimate indicating stagnation in the third quarter
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
87
in order to counter any insecurity in the financial markets the national bank carried out its assessment today, ahead of the planned date of 20 september 2001
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
569
the new forecast stands at 0.4 for 2021, and 0.6 for both 2022 and 2023
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
164
the inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three-month libor rate will remain steady at 0.5
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,004
90
considerable risks are attached to this inflation forecast
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
843
the outlook with respect to inflation remains essentially unchanged
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
945
in line with most forecasting institutions, the snb is now expecting a sharper downturn in the us economy and to a lesser extent in europe
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
775
in particular, uncertainty regarding economic developments in china has increased perceptibly
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
762
in the us, gdp declined slightly
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
354
economic growth was modest in the advanced economies in the first quarter of 2023
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
748
in so doing, it takes the overall currency situation into consideration
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
29
as expected, growth in switzerland picked up somewhat in the first quarter, after having been relatively weak in the previous quarter
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
840
a further escalation of the european sovereign debt crisis cannot be ruled out
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
544
after a brief slowdown, growth in the emerging economies picked up again in the fourth quarter, particularly in asia
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
287
overall, global economic growth was solid in the second quarter
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
727
the other industries in the manufacturing sector recorded a more modest expansion, in line with the slowdown in manufacturing worldwide
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
703
the swiss financial system has sufficient liquidity
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
626
second, the financial industry is in the midst of a period of recuperation
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,009
446
despite positive developments in the real economy, inflation remains modest in most advanced economies
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
207
monetary conditions are characterised by two opposing trends
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
466
it therefore adheres to its expansionary monetary policy
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,004
605
bern, 13 june 2003 the national bank has decided to leave the target range for the three-month libor rate unchanged at 0.0-0.75
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,003
75
average annual inflation will amount to 0.5 in 2009
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,009
16
in the advanced economies, gdp continued to expand above potential, in some cases exceeding expectations
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
428
chief among them are still political uncertainty and trade tensions, which could lead to renewed turbulence on the financial markets and a further dampening of economic sentiment
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
98
the situation on the financial markets is still uncertain, but less turbulent than it was a few months ago
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
960
for 2007, the national bank projects growth in real gross domestic product of a little over 2.5
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,007
485
the national bank considers the new interest rate level to be appropriate to ensure price stability in the medium term and to allow balanced economic growth
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,001
538
more information on the calculation of the exemption threshold can be found in the attached instruction sheet
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,019
572
however, it is likely that global production capacity will be underutilised for some time to come and inflation will remain modest in most countries
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
61
despite the most recent interest rate cut, the new forecast up to mid-2004 is virtually the same as that published at the end of last year
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,003
689
overall, substantial risks remain, with the focus on issues relating to the economic outlook for greece and the ukraine conflict
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
615
at 1.8 in february, the price increase for domestic goods is distinctly higher than the cpi increase
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,002
976
for 2016, the snb expects growth of approximately 1.5
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
260
annual inflation dropped to 1.1 in august from the 1.4 recorded in july
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,001
948
the new forecast stands at 2.1 for 2022, and 0.9 for 2023 and 2024 cf
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
518
the average inflation rate for the year 2003 will presumably amount to 1.3
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,001
779
global economic growth was solid in the first quarter of 2024
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
46
the survey carried out in january 2009 shows that some banks have tightened their lending conditions slightly
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
527
in the wake of this development, capacity utilisation in the economy as a whole improved further
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
377
this will have a positive effect on the labour market
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,006
5
this would be the strongest decline since the crisis in the mid-1970s
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
956
inflation has risen again in recent months, and stood at 2.2 in february
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
864
in the second quarter 2002, real gdp was slightly below last years level, but did not contract again compared with the previous quarter
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,002
861
at the same time, the snb will remain active in the foreign exchange market, in order to influence exchange rate developments where necessary
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
48
this was mainly due to weaker performance in manufacturing
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
256