Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_the_russian_federation

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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later on, as import substitution expands, sources of funding gradually diversify, lending conditions ease, and oil prices rise to some extent, the quarter-on-quarter gdp growth is expected to recover.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
511
the time period since the bank of russia board meeting in december saw risks to price stability escalating.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
738
they nevertheless remain elevated, as do businesses’ price expectations.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
307
under these conditions, a further rise in interest rates is progressing in the deposit and credit market.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
83
medium-term risks of inflation overshooting the target dominate over the risks of its persistent downward deviation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
488
according to bank of russia estimates, the annual rate of consumer price growth stood at 15.6% as of 8 june 2015.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
566
given the decision made, the moderately tight monetary conditions and the weak domestic demand will keep putting downward pressure on inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
317
since monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, the probability of inflation exceeding the 5.0% target at end-2014 has increased substantially.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
244
ruble appreciation made a considerable contribution to consumer price growth slowdown since the start of the year.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
713
third, inflationary pressure may stem from changes in households’ behaviour as the propensity to save becomes much lower.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
403
inflation expectations of households remain elevated compared to the pre-pandemic period.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
357
on 27 october 2023, the bank of russia board of directors decided to increase the key rate by 200 basis points to 15.00% per annum.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
674
the bank of russia forecasts annual inflation to be 3.5 4% in late 2018 and increase for a short-term period to 4 4.5% in 2019.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
119
if the external conditions improve and inflation and inflation expectation show a stable downward trend, the bank of russia will be ready to start monetary policy easing.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,014
72
in making its key rate decision, the bank of russia took into account the macroeconomic fundamentals which suggest a less severe downturn than previously estimated considering this level of oil prices.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
264
according to bank of russia estimates, q3 gdp growth continued in line with the forecast.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
914
going forward, the advancing processes of import substitution and non-energy export expansion will help a gradual economic recovery.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
359
annual consumer price growth rate declined to 4.0% in september (from 4.3% in august 2019) and was close to 3.8% according to the estimate as of 21 october.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
169
on the short-term horizon, among these factors are food price movements triggered by the supply of farm produce.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
560
recent weekly data indicate a slowdown in current price growth rates on the back of a strengthening of the ruble and a cooling of consumer activity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
531
households’ inflation expectations and businesses’ price expectations have increased.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
174
slack domestic demand will facilitate the continuation of annual inflation reduction in years 2015-2017.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
225
according to the bank of russia’s forecast, in 2022–2023, the russian economy will grow 2.0–3.0% annually.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
575
in september, monthly prices increased their growth pace on a seasonally adjusted basis.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
243
going forward, the rise in government expenditures, including investment ones, and their impact on economic growth will be more distributed over time.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
589
in 2024 q2, the average seasonally adjusted core inflation went up to 9.2% in annualised terms from 6.8% in the previous quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
556
in these conditions, a decline in quarterly gdp growth is expected to be more protracted than previously forecast.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
677
significant proinflationary risks have crystallised, namely the domestic demand growth outpacing the output expansion capacity and the depreciation of the ruble in the summer months.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
416
over the medium-term horizon, the balance of inflation risks has shifted even more towards proinflationary ones.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
893
legislative consolidation of a budget rule will also mitigate medium-term inflation risks.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
872
in early 2014, the annual growth of consumer prices decelerated and stood at 6.1% as of 10 february 2014.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
883
annual inflation in general corresponds to the bank of russia’s expectations.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
173
labour productivity growth is sluggish, while fixed capital investment continues to contract because of declining profits in the real sector, limited access to long-term financing in both international and domestic markets, as well as low producer and consumer confidence.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
120
in case of a further budget deficit expansion, pro-inflation risks will rise and tighter monetary policy may be required to return inflation to target in 2024 and keep it close to 4% further on.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
261
recent data for the third quarter suggest that the economy is expanding faster than the bank of russia expected in september.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
304
net export contribution to gdp growth will stand close to zero.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
913
in april, annual inflation started to slow down and declined to 5.1%, according to the estimate as of 22 april.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
512
according to bank of russia estimates, monthly consumer price growth will moderate slightly in january 2015, but annual inflation will continue the upward trend with a peak in the q2 of 2015.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
973
flash data including business survey results show that the labour market remains tight.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
127
at the same time, persistently high oil prices support domestic economy.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
313
in february — early march 2014, the year-on-year growth rate of consumer prices rose and reached 6.4% as of 11 march 2014.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
841
a more rapid adaptation of the economy, accompanied by an active recovery of imports among other things may also have a disinflationary effect.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
901
inflation is to slow down to the 4% target by late 2017 and hold close to this level in the sequel.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
349
in case of a further expansion in the budget deficit, pro-inflationary risks will increase and tighter monetary policy may be required to return inflation to target in 2024 and keep it close to 4% further on.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
830
in september, the current seasonally adjusted price growth rose to 9.8% in annualised terms from 7.5% in august.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
156
however, should oil prices remain persistently low, this will further escalate inflation and financial stability risks and will require a more extensive adjustment of the economy to the new conditions.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
723
on the one hand, amid growing global oil prices coupled with the increase in excises early this year, the prices of oil products in the domestic market saw a tangible rise.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
322
these shocks include aggravation of geopolitical tension, adjustments in monetary policy of foreign central banks and the potential impact of those factors on national currency exchange rate dynamics, tax and tariff policy changes under discussion.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,014
687
the latter are invariably marked with mixed trends across sectors, as a notable drop in price expectations in agriculture comes with their increase in trade and manufacturing.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
376
inflation expectations of households and businesses have significantly decreased, reaching the levels of spring 2021.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
573
the aggregate output of goods and services remains somewhat below potential.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
385
despite some slowdown, consumer activity remains high.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
827
high inflation risks that brought about an increase in the key rate on 3 march 2014 still remain.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
755
significant shortages of labour force in some industries may lead to labour productivity growth lagging behind growth in real wages.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
721
higher inflationary pressure is seen across an increasingly broader range of goods and services.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
370
labour shortages are increasing in many industries amid the effects of the partial mobilisation as growth in businesses’ demand for labour continues.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
600
the updated rosstat statistics reflect steadier economic growth in 2017 — early 2018 than previous estimates.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
255
quarterly gdp growth is expected no later than 2016 h2.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
230
when making its key rate decisions, the bank of russia will consider the impact of cancelling these anti-crisis measures on monetary conditions.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
711
the bank of russia’s monetary policy stance is aimed to limit this risk and return inflation to 4%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
877
the labour market is adjusting to the new economic environment, and unemployment remains stable and low.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
964
the finance ministry’s purchases of foreign currency in the fx market did not have any substantial impact on the ruble exchange rate dynamics as the driving factors of its appreciation remained dominant.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
771
growth in household consumption expenditures went up along with the increase in investment and production.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
460
inflation expectations of households continue to grow, remaining close to their highest level for the last four years for more than six months.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
111
according to the bank of russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 5.0–7.0% in 2023, return to 4% in 2024 and stabilise close to 4% further on.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
122
given the situation, the potential for lowering the short-term rates is greater than for the long-term ones.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
345
external economic conditions have restraining effect on the russian economy: oil prices see a significant decline while economic activity of most russia’s trading partners remains weak.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
634
the household services sector is actively recovering.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
692
continuing growth of interest rates on household deposits stimulates the propensity to save and increases the attractiveness of deposits.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
22
according to the bank of russia forecast, the vat increase and the 2018 weakening of the ruble will temporarily accelerate annual inflation, which will peak in the first half of 2019 and run at 5.0-5.5% by the end of 2019.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,019
780
in its key rate decision-making, the bank of russia will determine if the increases of the key rate in september and december 2018 were sufficient to bring annual inflation back to the target in 2020, taking into account inflation and economic performance against the forecast, as well as the risks associated with external conditions and financial markets’ response to them.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
668
in an unfavourable environment in the global commodity markets, exports in value terms are expected to go down.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
994
according to the bank of russia estimates, the year-on-year gdp growth rate is to decline to 0.2% in 2014 q3 and amount to 0.4% as of the end of 2014.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
443
at the same time, the cumulative contribution of ruble depreciation, restrictions on imports and other factors specific for the markets of several food products, to year-to-year consumer prices growth will account for 4.9 percentage points by the year-end.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
267
in recent months, the acceleration of inflation was partially driven by one-off factors.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
701
the next regular meeting of the bank of russia board of directors, where the key rate level will be considered, is scheduled for 25 april 2014 1 standing facilities (fixed rates) repo overnight loans lombard loans loans secured with gold loans secured with non-marketable assets and guarantees fx swaps (rouble leg) 1 day 8.00 open market operations (minimum interest rates) loans secured with non-marketable assets, auctions 2 3 months 7.25 3 7.00 3 standing facilities (fixed rates) 1 day, call 6.00 for reference: 8.25 1 complete information on interest rates on bank of russia operations is given in table 2 a floating interest rate, linked to the level of the bank of russia key rate.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
926
in the first quarter, the rate of consumer price growth has been higher than the bank of russia’s forecast.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
170
remained overall neutral with a slight tightening despite the cut in the key rate in september.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
272
the current conditions continue to encourage savings and ensure that consumption growth is balanced.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
65
on 17 december 2021, the bank of russia board of directors decided to increase the key rate by 100 b.p.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
151
this november’s upward movement of inflation was largely driven by annual food price growth accelerating from 2.7% to 3.5%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
756
these risks stem largely from the inertia of inflation expectations and a decrease in household propensity to save.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
939
their restraining effect on business activity may strengthen in the context of the spread of new coronavirus strains and the associated tightening of anti-pandemic measures.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
922
according to the bank of russia estimates, the gdp growth rate was close to zero in q2 following negative figures earlier.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
451
a further aggravation of external trade and financial restrictions may have a proinflationary effect, thereby leading to a sharper decline in the potential of the russian economy than expected in the baseline scenario.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
391
the bank of russia forecasts annual inflation to be 3-4% in 2018 and close to 4% in 2019.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
204
the high debt load of russian companies and interest rate risks for banks and their borrowers have also been factored in.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
229
a trend towards growth in loan and deposit interest rates is also emerging, with growth in deposit rates taking place at a slower pace so far.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
299
current price movements are largely driven by a surge in consumer demand for individual product categories against the background of higher uncertainty and rising inflation expectations, as well as the weakening of the ruble since the beginning of 2022.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
276
proinflationary risks have considerably increased and are now prevailing over the entire forecast horizon.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
486
the board of directors notes that the dynamics of inflation and economic activity are overall in line with the forecast.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
534
according to the bank of russia forecast, consumer price growth will continue to slow amid slack domestic demand.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
978
uncertainty persists over how strongly the tax measures may affect inflation expectations and how the external conditions will develop.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
884
moreover, inflation expectations of households increased in july.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
541
this resulted from a slower than expected growth of fixed capital investment, including a decline in construction, together with the review of the data for 2017 by rosstat.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
983
growing domestic and external demand and high corporate profits are shoring up investment activity.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
969
the bank of russia will continue its gradual transition from moderately tight to neutral monetary policy and holds open the prospect of some key rate reduction in the first half of 2018.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
972
at the same time a weaker internal demand will cause a more significant decrease in imports in value terms.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
980
industry, including technology-intensive production types, discovers new opportunities for growth.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,016
305
the vat hike slightly constrains business activity.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
348