Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

central_bank_of_the_russian_federation

sentences stringlengths 19 689	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
in january, households’ inflation expectations slightly abated, though remaining close to six-year highs.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	705
with regard to the above, the impact on prices from the depreciation of the ruble since the beginning of the year can be more pronounced than expected in the baseline scenario.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	921
faster growth of food prices to 5.9% (vs 5.5% in january 2019) played a significant role in the inflation rise in february.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	158
in january, price expectations of businesses increased on the back of the earlier weakening of the ruble and the vat increase.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	654
the bank of russia forcasts that, consistent with the decision, annual inflation will total less than 6% in march 2017, to reach the 4% target in late 2017.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	822
according to the updated forecast of the bank of russia, annual inflation will stay at 6.0–7.0% in 2023.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	43
according to the bank of russia estimates, gdp growth rate in 2015 will amount to 0.9-1.1%.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	189
high-frequency estimates suggest that economic activity continued to grow in q3 albeit at a somewhat slower pace.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	869
the bank of russia will consider the necessity of further increases in the key rate, taking into account inflation and economic dynamics against the forecast, as well as risks posed by external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	987
an excessive reduction in households’ propensity to save may lead to consumer demand outstripping the capacity to expand output.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	467
according to companies’ surveys, the labour shortage continues to widen.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	257
the additional fiscal easing announced by the government will support economic activity in 2023.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	658
in the context of growing deposit rates since late september, credit institutions have recorded a resumed inflow of household funds, although chiefly to current accounts.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	754
considering the decision made and persistent moderately tight monetary policy, the annual inflation, as forecast by the bank of russia, will be around 4.5% in september 2017 to reach the 4% target by late 2017.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,016	632
substantial investment demand is supported by both fiscal incentives and high profits of businesses.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	426
key rate decisions will take into account actual and expected inflation movements relative to the target and economic developments over the forecast horizon, as well as risks posed by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	288
considering the change in the external and internal environment, the bank of russia’s capability to downgrade its key rate in the course of the first half of 2017 has diminished.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	70
in august, households’ inflation expectations somewhat decreased but still remain elevated.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	167
according to rosstat’s tentative estimates, the annual pace of gdp drop decreased in q3.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	102
moreover, the increasing complexity of production and supply chains and payments due to external restrictions could lead to both higher import prices and tighter supply-side constraints in the russian economy.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	250
the bank of russia sees room for cutting the key rate in the second half of 2017.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	832
household consumption is on the rise alongside with the growth in investment and industrial output.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	916
due to a limited availability of labour resources, the labour productivity growth may lag more behind the growth in real wages.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	763
given this decision and considering that the moderately tight monetary policy is maintained, annual growth in consumer prices is set to total less than 4.5% for october 2017, dropping to the target level of 4% by the end of 2017.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,016	84
yields on medium- and long-term ofzs are little changed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	295
the april weakening in the ruble against the backdrop of geopolitical tension will be a factor for consumer price growth paces to quicken as they move closer to 4%.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	125
recent data indicate that business price expectations are growing, reaching new multi-year highs.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	845
its influence on price growth rates is enhanced by restrictions on foreign travel.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	191
the interest rate dynamics were a key contributor to easing of monetary conditions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	617
according to the bank of russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will reduce to 5.0-6.0% in 2022 to return to the target in the middle of 2023.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	64
moving forward, in its key rate decision-making, the bank of russia will take into account actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target and economic transformation processes, as well as the risks posed by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	709
these factors, alongside with a decrease in retail lending, will result in further decline in consumer activity.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	247
the bank of russia forecasts assume the economic downturn to slow down to 1.3%-1.5% in 2016.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	434
it is attested, among other things, by the on-going decline in production capacity and labour force utilisation, and a certain rise in the unemployment rate.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	362
however, signs emerged in october of a slowdown in credit activity including in the context of the tightening in non-price bank lending conditions, particularly in the retail segment.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	215
since the previous meeting of the bank of russia board of directors, interest rates in the credit and deposit market, as well as short- and medium-term ofz yields, have continued to decline.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	879
the bank of russia maintains its 2019 gdp growth forecast in the range of 1.2-1.7%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	985
short-term inflation risks are also associated with intensified volatility in global markets caused by, among other factors, a range of geopolitical events, which may affect exchange rate and inflation expectations.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	652
the lower — compared to last year’s — indexation of administered prices and rates in july, as well as the expectations for good crops, will contribute to the slowdown of inflation, helping recede inflation expectations.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	316
positive trends in the economy are not accompanied by a higher inflationary pressure.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	489
lending gained support from both the key rate reduction since spring and government-subsidised lending programmes.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	89
taking into account gdp growth statistics for 2018 — 2019 q1 published by rosstat, the bank of russia lowered its gdp growth forecast for 2019 from 1.2-1.7% to 1.0-1.5%.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	977
this was instrumental in restoring the inflow of funds into fixed-term ruble deposits and stabilised household demand for cash.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	199
non-price lending conditions are gradually becoming looser for the most reliable borrowers but are still restrictive.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	277
based on the above specified trends and given the current key rate level, the bank of russia expects the downward trend in consumer price growth to continue with inflation rate converging to the target level of 5.0% in late 2014.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	878
this creates the necessity of further increases in the key rate at upcoming meetings.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	789
domestic demand trends and the depreciation of the ruble since the beginning of 2023 significantly amplify proinflationary risks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	408
given the current monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.0–4.5% in 2024 and stay close to 4% further on.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	865
at the end of 2022, an increase in budget expenditures made a significant contribution to the growth of current accounts.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	148
the economy is rising faster than the bank of russia’s february forecast assumed.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	894
given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will return to the bank of russia’s target in the second half of 2022 and will remain close to 4% further on.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	37
amid a considerable reduction in real income slack consumer demand hampers consumer price growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	776
at the same time, the bank of russia expects gdp growth in 2023 to outperform its october forecast and exceed 3%.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	380
output growth continued throughout march, including industrial output, and capacity utilisation increased.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	851
however, they remain high, on the one hand, contributing to attractiveness of ruble savings, and, on the other hand, alongside with tighter borrower and collateral requirements, resulting in lower annual lending growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	697
its contribution to annual inflation was around 0.6-0.7 pp, which corresponds to the lower bound of the bank of russia expectations range.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	814
the risks that inflation will not reach the target of 4% in 2017 declined, but still remain at a heightened level.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	904
in its baseline scenario, the bank of russia forecasts that gdp will grow at 2.2–2.7% in 2023, 0.5–1.5% in 2024, 1.0–2.0% in 2025, 1.5%—2.5% in 2026.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	252
that risk is related to rouble exchange rate dynamics affected by, inter alia, monetary policy measures of the foreign central banks and geopolitical situation.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	929
lending and deposit rates show a downward trend under the influence of the bank of russia’s previous decisions to cut its key rate.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	611
the inflow of funds to fixed-term ruble deposits is moderate.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	500
the dynamics of the major macroeconomic indicators show a considerable gdp contraction in 2015 q1.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	163
over q2 2014 the moderate recovery of economic activity has been observed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	280
short-term inflation expectations of analysts and long-term expectations calculated based on financial market instruments increased as well.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	942
import substitution is advancing together with certain non-commodity exports and new lines of industrial growth, including the high-tech development.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	596
short-term proinflationary risks are also associated with the stronger volatility in global markets caused in part by various geopolitical developments, which may affect exchange rate and inflation expectations.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	604
this means that a steady rise in domestic demand is progressively exceeding the capabilities to expand the production of goods and the provision of services.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	217
overall lending growth remains high, despite the deceleration in the retail segment.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	395
consumption will remain weak.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	997
hence, we see softening of monetary conditions, impacted by reduced structural deficit of liquidity even if the key rate is unchanged.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	475
alongside with accommodative monetary conditions, lending dynamics are influenced by the preferential programmes implemented by the government as well as by regulatory relaxations.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	203
some additional inflationary pressure has come from a temporary surge in consumer demand for non-food goods amid the rise of inflation expectations.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	850
interest rates in individual segments of the domestic financial market have showed mixed trends.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	963
annual inflation slowdown is also influenced by the high base effect in respect of the price dynamics of principal types of motor fuel.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	982
although survey data show some deterioration in current business sentiment, businesses’ expectations for future demand remain high.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	445
inflation remains low, driven by long-term factors including, in the first place, a moderate recovery in domestic demand.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	507
according to the bank of russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will slow down to 5.0–7.0% in 2023 to return to 4% in 2024.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	645
due to the long-term demographic trends labour supply decreases.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	196
the balance of risks remains skewed towards pro-inflationary risks, especially over a short-term horizon, driven by the vat increase and price movements in individual food products.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	708
inflation slowdown is overshooting the forecast.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	785
the bank of russia’s baseline scenario is based on the decisions already made regarding the expenditure path of the federal budget and the fiscal system as a whole.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	423
seasonally adjusted core inflation rose to 8.3% in annualised terms from 7.1% (on average) in 2024 q1.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	683
short-term proinflationary risks have abated compared to march.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	415
yields on medium- and long-term ofzs have also increased mainly due to elevated geopolitical tensions.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	895
households’ inflation expectations went up again in december to a fresh five-year high.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	693
the bank of russia considers that monetary policy is highly likely to shift to a neutral stance in 2019.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	993
implementation of government anti-recession measures will facilitate investments.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	781
fixed capital investments will continue to contract due to economic agents’ negative expectations with regard to the russian economic outlook and tight lending conditions.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	400
further gdp growth above 1.5-2% a year is attainable if structural reforms are put in place.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	132
given the weak economic activity observed since the beginning of this year, the bank of russia has lowered its gdp growth rate forecast for 2019 from 1.0-1.5% to 0.8-1.3%.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	55
in case of a further budget deficit expansion, tighter monetary policy may be required to return inflation to target in 2024 and keep it close to 4% further on.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	981
legislative consolidation of a budget rule will contribute to mitigating this risk.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	847
this primarily concerns energy commodities and food markets.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,022	193
the purchases/sales of foreign currency in the fx market, which russia’s finance ministry intends to carry out under a transitional budget rule, will not bring considerable inflation risks given the bank of russia sticks to its moderately tight monetary policy.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	696
investment activity remains low amid economic uncertainty, declining profits in the real sector and tightened non-price lending conditions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	431
growth in domestic demand is still outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	620
the consumer price index has shown diverging trends in terms of components: a notable slowdown in goods price growth came with an acceleration in services price growth.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	660
that said, there was an increase in the heterogeneity of trends in businesses’ price expectations across industries: since the beginning of 2023, a notable drop in price expectations in agriculture has come with their increase in retail and wholesale trade.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	388
amid persistently restricted access to the international capital markets for russian companies and relatively cheap energy resources, fixed capital investments will continue to edge lower.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	177
business activity keeps on expanding and is hardly posing any disinflationary pressure on consumer price movements.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/central_bank_of_the_russian_federation

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The central_bank_of_the_russian_federation dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}