Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_the_russian_federation

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
sentences
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int64
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999
while structural factors are still curbing economic growth, current drop in production is of a cyclical nature.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
549
july saw some signs of stabilisation in production and consumption decline.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
476
that said, uncertainty is in place over how inflation expectations will respond to the april developments in financial markets.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
663
the board of directors notes that the dynamics of inflation and economic activity are overall in line with the forecast and inflation risks have subsided somewhat.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
820
ruble exchange rate dynamics will remain a meaningful factor shaping the path of inflation and inflation expectations.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
736
this in large part reflects the gradually strengthening effects of monetary tightening.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
867
the bank of russia’s monetary policy pursued will create the conditions for returning the economy to the balanced growth path.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
32
money supply (m2) growth rates increased but still remain low.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
990
main risks stem from highly uncertain external conditions and their impact on financial markets.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
676
the bank of russia’s monetary policy will limit the upward deviation of inflation from the target.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
234
gdp data for 2024 q1 and high-frequency indicators for 2024 q2 show that the russian economy continues to grow rapidly.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
833
meanwhile, inflation slowdown is continuing.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
892
the bank of russia estimates gdp decrease in 2015 q2 compared with the similar quarter last year to be more significant than that in q1 2015.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
472
taking into account q1 gdp data and the negative changes in external conditions, output is forecast to contract by 3.9-4.4% in 2015.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
201
given lending rates hike and tighter borrower and collateral requirements, lending growth (adjusted for currency revaluation) slows down.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
745
in this case, lending will continue to expand at an accelerated rate, while household propensity to save will decrease.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
678
according to the estimates as of the 1 of december 2014, annual money supply (m2) growth rate decreased to 4.8% from 16.3% a year earlier.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
959
the bank of russia’s monetary policy stance is aimed to limit this risk and return annual inflation to 4%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
710
annual consumer price growth rate declined to 4.3% in august (from 4.6% in july 2019).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
159
the bank of russia leaves mostly unchanged its estimates of risks associated with wage movements, possible changes in consumer behaviour and budget expenditures.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
368
this is primarily related to the weak dynamics of domestic and external demand.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
185
at the same time, a growing risk premium factored into lending rates and more stringent borrower requirements of banks trigger the emergence of tight price and non-price bank lending conditions.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
728
however, the overall consumer price index in august, on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis, was decelerating slower, and core inflation went up slightly.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
735
june results show that annual core inflation declined for the first time since march 2018 and reached 4.6%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
492
given further intensification of inflationary pressure in the world economy, the central banks of advanced economies are forced to implement a faster normalisation of monetary policy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
505
annual inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020 when the effects of ruble’s weakening in 2018 and the vat rise peter out.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
168
second, inflationary pressure may stem from households’ shrinking propensity to save.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
38
the fifa world cup made a positive contribution to the annual gdp growth rate in q2 the bank of russia forecasts that in 2018 the russian economy will post a 1.5–2% growth rate, which corresponds to its potential amid the remaining structural limitations.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
101
taking into account domestic and global economic developments as well as the nature of supply-side constraints, the bank of russia expects gdp to grow 4.0–4.5% in 2021.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
233
annual inflation will peak in the first six months of 2019 reaching 5.0-5.5% by the end of 2019.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
266
the development of import substitution and expansion of non-commodity exports make a positive contribution to industrial production dynamics.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
470
flash estimates indicate a recovery in retail lending following a temporary slowdown in october, in large measure on the back of stabilisation in consumer sentiment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
688
fifth, the likely tax manoeuvre may result in a temporary acceleration of inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
707
amid accelerated consumer prices growth, inflation expectations of households and businesses continued to increase imposing additional pressure on prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
278
on 26 july 2024, the bank of russia’s board of directors decided to increase the key rate by 200 basis points to 18.00% per annum.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
570
this, among other things, suggests that in 2024 the proinflationary effect of broader fiscal stimulus on domestic demand will be offset by a decrease in the credit impulse.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
670
high-frequency indicators point to a halt in the decline in business activity in may after it dropped sharply in april.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
675
according to the bank of russia’s monitoring, increasingly more businesses report that their production rate has returned to the pre-pandemic level.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
144
business price expectations showed mixed dynamics amid august ruble depreciation.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
918
at the same time, current rates of price growth in the greater part of the consumer basket, although having dropped, are still significantly above 4% annualised.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
141
as inflation risks abate further, the bank of russia will be ready to continue cutting the key rate.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
263
in february 2018 it stood at 2.2%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
128
taking into account new data on economic trends and the ongoing structural transformation of the russian economy, the bank of russia’s baseline scenario forecasts that gdp growth will be 0.5–2.0% in 2023 and 0.5–2.5% in 2024.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
607
its expansion is largely based on the non-food sales.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,018
108
russian economy’s growth rates remain low while industrial output continues to stagnate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
105
moving forward, should inflation risks fall as much as to ensure with greater certainty that the bank of russia achieves its inflation target, the bank of russia will resume a gradual lowering of its key rate at one of its forthcoming board meetings.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
35
december saw a further slowdown in growth of prices for staple goods and services, as well as lower monthly inflation (seasonally adjusted).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
839
according to bank of russia estimates, gdp will fall by 3.5-4.0% in 2015.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
537
elevated inflation expectations increase the inertia of underlying inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
495
the pass-through of the ruble weakening to prices is speeding up due to high inflation expectations.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
979
the economic recovery may be held back, among other things, by low vaccination rates and the spread of new coronavirus strains, as well as the ensuing tightening of restrictions.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
271
in 2015, gdp is expected to contract by 3.2%.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
8
july has seen signs of inflation slowdown.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
737
on 26 april 2019, the bank of russia board of directors decided to keep the key rate at 7.75% per annum.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
523
annual money supply (m2) growth rate decreased considerably as compared with the beginning of 2014.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
968
third, inflationary pressure may stem from changes in households’ behaviour as their propensity to save can become considerably lower.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
279
however, the medium-term prospects of the russian economy saw no changes.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
853
this largely points to the expansion of the government borrowing programme.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
899
consumer prices grew at the pace of 2.4% in march, and consumer price growth in april is estimated at 2.3 2.5%.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
282
this may pass through to domestic prices for corresponding goods.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
758
nevertheless, inflation and inflation expectations are forecasted to decrease as the economy gradually adjusts to changing external conditions and the impact of the exchange rate dynamics on prices exhausts.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
375
according to estimates as of 19 april, annual inflation slowed down to 5.5%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
937
fourth, inflation expectations remain highly sensitive to changing prices for individual groups of goods and services and exchange rate movements.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
92
on 19 march 2021, the bank of russia board of directors decided to increase the key rate by 25 b.p.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
371
besides, inflation reduction can be hampered by persistently high inflation expectations, and an upward revision, planned for 2016-2017, of rates and prices in the regulated sector, an upward revision of social payments indexation, as well as overall budget policy easing.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
190
consumer demand growth slowed down, as compared to previous months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
546
economic growth might accelerate to 2-3% by 2022 should the government’s measures for overcoming structural constraints, including the implementation of national projects, be realised.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
804
have remained broadly neutral.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
325
these factors, alongside with a decrease in retail lending, will result in further decline in consumer spending.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
568
credit activity remains high in both the corporate and retail segments.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
404
specific fiscal consolidation measures, including wage and social payments indexation, remain uncertain over the horizon.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
352
first, they are connected with the further dynamics of oil prices which under reached the agreements began to take shape at a lower level than expected.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
866
the annual rate of consumer price growth is estimated at 7.6% as of 9 june 2014.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
208
according to the bank of russia’s forecast and given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will return to the target in 2025 and stabilise close to 4% further on.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
679
the slowdown in inflation comes largely on the back of a stronger ruble and a cooling of consumer activity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
145
this determines the inertia of current high price growth.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
567
slowing inflation allows more certain reliance on sustainable inflation reduction to less than 5% in may 2017 and the 4% target in late 2017, taking into account the decision just made and the retention moderately tight monetary policy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
793
inflation fell perceptibly; however, the trend bears risks of instability.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,016
6
high-frequency indicators point to steady growth of consumer and investment demand.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
329
given the volatility in the financial markets of advanced economies, a deterioration in the global economic growth outlook can also have significant short-term pro-inflation effects.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
857
in this environment, the balance of risks has tilted even more towards proinflationary ones.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
653
the gdp growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 2.5-3.5%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
612
within the next months, the bank of russia will assess inflation risks and economy and inflation dynamics’ consistence with the baseline forecast.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
104
the bank of russia leaves mostly unchanged its estimates of risks associated with wage movements, prices of individual food products, and possible changes in consumer behaviour.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
21
given gradually rising inflationary pressures, the bank of russia holds open the prospect of increasing the key rate at its next meetings to stabilise inflation close to 4% in 2024 and further on.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
517
according to bank of russia estimates, most annual inflation indicators reflecting the most sustainable price movements are growing.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
514
this led to a moderate decrease in interest rates on bank loans and on household deposits.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
69
in certain sectors, the capacity for output expansion is lagging behind the expanding demand, including due to lack of labour force.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
165
the slowdown in private sector investment demand is evolving simultaneously with growing government investment.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
301
remain accommodative and have not changed substantially since the previous meeting of the bank of russia board of directors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
648
an increase in structural staff shortages may cause labour productivity growth to considerably lag behind wage growth.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
66
the dominating influence of inflationary factors has led to a more substantial and prolonged upward deviation of inflation from the target.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
680
current inflationary pressures have significantly increased to a level above the bank of russia’s expectations.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
900
the recent weekly data on inflation are indicative of a still feeble response of consumer prices to the ruble weakening.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
450
with regard to external conditions, accelerated yield growth in advanced economies and geopolitical factors may cause surges in volatility in financial markets and affect expectations for the exchange rate and inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
68
the bank of russia’s baseline scenario rests on the government’s decisions which have already been made regarding the medium-term expenditure path of the federal budget and overall the fiscal system.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
700
the adopted decision on the key rate would ensure the decline in inflation to no more than 6.0% by the end of 2014 and help to maintain the appropriate balance of inflation risks and the risks of further economic slowdown.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
483
according to the bank of russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.0–4.5% in 2025 and stay close to 4% further on.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
729
in february—march 2019, annual inflation is holding lower than the bank of russia’s expectations.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
734
amid economic uncertainty and declining producer confidence this year there is a high probability of a reduction in fixed capital investment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,014
58