Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_the_russian_federation

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
sentences
stringlengths
19
689
stance_label
stringclasses
4 values
time_label
stringclasses
2 values
certain_label
stringclasses
2 values
year
int64
2.01k
2.02k
__index_level_0__
int64
1
999
since the previous key rate review meeting of the bank of russia board of directors ofz yields have risen and the slope of the ofz curve has increased.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
134
inflation declines ahead of the forecast.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
522
this means that by the end of 2024 the russian economy will reach the level of late 2021.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
422
the dominating influence of inflationary factors could lead to a more substantial and prolonged upward deviation of inflation from the target.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
239
although october saw inconsistent trends in the dynamics of economic activity, producer sentiment remains at a relatively high level.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
996
real wage decrease and a slowdown in retail lending growth will result in lower consumer demand.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
146
pro-inflation risks from the labour market persist.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
218
concurrently, the decline in imports as a whole, due to the introduction of external trade and financial restrictions, is still significantly ahead of the decline in exports.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
290
according to the bank of russia’s forecast, gradual easing of internal financial conditions, lower debt burden and improved business sentiment in 2016 h2 will pave the way for investment and production recovery in 2017.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
783
in february, the annual consumer price growth rate rose to 5.7% vs 5.2% in january and, according to the 15 march assessments, reached 5.8%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
473
as for domestic conditions, proinflationary effects may be more serious than in the baseline scenario due to changes in the size of the labour force and the employment structure, including amid the partial mobilisation.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
315
the decision taken by the bank of russia is aimed at slowing consumer prices growth to the target of 4% in the medium run.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
815
in 2023, the gdp growth rate will remain negative at (-4.0)—(-1.0)%.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
909
moving forward, in its key rate decision-making the bank of russia will take into account actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target and economic transformation processes, as well as risks posed by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
934
stripping out the impact of one-off factors, the monthly growth pace of prices was also up but remained low.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
402
businesses’ price expectations, on the contrary, rose slightly after several months of decline.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
510
in june, annual inflation fell to 15.9% (after 17.1% in may) and, according to estimates as of 15 july, fell to 15.5%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
732
in 2019, the forthcoming vat increase might have a slight constraining effect on business activity, mostly in the beginning of the year.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
26
the bank of russia takes into consideration the oil market uncertainty and keeps pursuing a conservative approach to the forecast, which assumes an oil price reduction to $40 per barrel by the end of 2017 and its further staying near this level.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
39
the bank of russia still assumes that monetary policy will become neutral in 2018.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
86
surveys suggest that a significant proportion of enterprises are still confronted by difficulties in production and logistics.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
47
this was supported by the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate and generally subdued consumer demand.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
807
employment data and production capacity utilisation have recently been steady.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
957
however, in 2024 q1, the calendar effect of a leap year partly contributed to the annual gdp growth rate.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
903
overall, the contribution of fiscal policy to the expansion of domestic demand is still increasing, including due to growing government investment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
526
inflation pressure from the labour market intensifies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
933
in march, the annual consumer price growth rate rose to 5.8% (vs 5.7% in february).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
454
the inflation dynamics may also be affected by fiscal policy parameters, including decisions on the use of the liquid part of the national wealth fund in excess of the threshold level set at 7% of gdp.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
606
is rising faster than the bank of russia’s april forecast assumed.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
941
although the number of vacancies has decreased, the unemployment rate is near historical lows.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
298
economic growth is getting closer to its potential level.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
702
current rates of price growth remain moderate, including in the stable components of inflation.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
142
against this background, lending activity is decreasing, especially in the retail lending market.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
273
at the same time, many sectors show labour shortages, despite the inflow of foreign labour.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
943
at the same time, economic growth is nearing its potential level.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
223
the ofz curve has flattened.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
154
the dominating influence of proinflationary factors could lead to a more substantial and prolonged deviation of inflation upwards from the target.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
103
during september-october significant changes in external conditions have taken place: considerable fall in oil prices and stricter sanctions imposed by certain countries against several large russian companies.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
724
consumer demand remains subdued.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
369
in 2020 q4, households’ real income continued to recover and unemployment started to decline.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
502
current inflationary pressure has intensified, also because of the pass-through of the ruble weakening to prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
44
these factors, along with low level of retail lending, will result in further contraction of consumer spending.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
532
according to the estimate as of 3 june, annual inflation stood at 8.1% after 7.8% at the end of april.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
106
medium-term inflation is largely impacted by fiscal policy.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
558
the factors of inflation decline are exhausted impact of ruble depreciation seen in january-march 2014 on consumer prices, lower scale of increase in administered prices and tariffs, expected good harvest, as well as subdued aggregate demand with aggregate output of goods and services remaining below potential.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
259
the unemployment rate has dropped to a record low, while the number of vacancies is at a record high.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
616
annual gdp growth is predicted to enter positive territory in 2017.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,016
114
inflation deceleration was mainly caused by lower increases in administered prices and utility tariffs.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
795
given the moderately tight monetary policy, the 4% inflation target will be achieved before the end of 2017 and will be maintained close to this level in 2018-2019.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
338
this is helped by the economic environment including steady russian financial market, persistently weak consumer demand and the indexation of administered prices and rates as previously planned.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
155
despite elevated inflation expectations and an increased share of the most liquid assets (current accounts and cash rubles) in the structure of savings, households maintained a high propensity to save.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
186
in order to maintain the propensity to save and anchor sustainable inflation slowdown driven by demand-side restrictions, monetary conditions should remain moderately tight.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
222
disinflationary risks are primarily related to domestic demand slowing down faster due to monetary policy tightening already in place.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
162
remain accommodative given elevated inflation expectations and actual inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
862
moving forward, the bank of russia’s key rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the balance of risks of inflation’s material and sustainable deviation in either direction from the target, as well as the dynamics of economic activity against the forecast.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
87
seasonally adjusted monthly inflation was down from 0.9% between august and october to 0.7% in november.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
569
risks of a global economic slowdown have increased.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
164
according to bank of russia estimates, as of 27 april, annual consumer price growth rate stood at 16.5%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
90
this slowdown in annual inflation is in line with the previous forecasts.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
843
the bank of russia will continue to take measures aimed at slowing down consumer prices growth to the target of 4% in the medium run.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
945
based on bank of russia estimates, indicators reflecting the most sustainable price movements are persistently above 4% (annualised).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
775
unemployment is at a level at which it does not affect inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
762
the weakening of the ruble has resulted in russian products gaining competitiveness, while it also helped economic growth in individual industries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
354
export volumes are expected to grow slightly, against the background of the floating exchange rate.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
748
the disinflationary effect on the short-term horizon may be caused by the persistence of households’ high propensity to save in the conditions of general economic uncertainty, prolonged habituation to the new structure of supply in consumer markets, and expectations of further price decline amid the strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of the year.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
29
in the second half of 2019, the incremental budget revenues will be used to raise government spending, including investment.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
840
short-term pro-inflationary risks have abated.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
544
persistently elevated inflation expectations and their further increase pose a significant risk.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
287
the recovery in retail trade and services is supported by a gradual lifting of restrictions.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
727
the increase in the key rate by the bank of russia will help maintain real interest rates on deposits in the positive territory, which will support the attractiveness of savings and balanced growth in consumption.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
703
a disinflationary effect may also be caused by a faster economic transformation, accompanied by an active recovery of imports among other things.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
626
inflation expectations of businesses have not changed materially after growing over previous months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
446
this decline will be in significant part driven by supply-side factors.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
207
the market mortgage segment has also seen a slowdown, although the overall mortgage lending portfolio has been expanding fast, including due to a large volume of loans issued under government-subsidised programmes.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
466
the impact of one-off supply-side drivers of inflation is translating into growing prices for a wider range of goods and services as inflation expectations of households and businesses remain high and unanchored.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
605
growing domestic demand is supporting an improvement in business sentiment despite persistently challenging external conditions.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
75
the current economic slowdown is predominantly structural by nature and thus does not exert any noticeable downward pressure on inflation.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
16
on 18 march 2022, the bank of russia board of directors decided to keep the key rate at 20% per annum.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
428
inflationary pressure in the russian economy remains high.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
98
both credit and deposit rates have increased.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
960
q2 saw further growth in manufacturing output; construction began to rise.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
485
in its baseline scenario, given the current trends in economy, the bank of russia forecasts gdp decline by 4.0–6.0% in 2022.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
538
the russian economy still shows a significant upward deviation from a balanced growth path.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
572
overall, the actual decrease in economic activity in 2022 q2 is less pronounced than the bank of russia assumed in its april baseline scenario.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
61
moving forward, in its key rate decision-making the bank of russia will take into account actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target and economic transformation processes, as well as the risks posed by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
689
as a result, net exports will be the only positive contributor to the annual output growth.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
615
later, as the economy gradually adjusts to external trade restrictions and the impact of exchange rate dynamics on prices reduction, inflation and inflation expectations are expected to see a renewed decrease.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,014
976
however, supply-side limitations in the global economy have exacerbated.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
260
however, their business sentiment is gradually improving as suppliers of finished products, raw materials and components, as well as sales markets, diversify.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
948
based on bank of russia estimates, indicators characterizing the most sustainable price movements substantially overshoot 4% (annualised).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
518
following the july decline in the key rate, yields on short- and medium-term ofzs decreased.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
779
at the same time, inflation risks have increased due to a combination of factors, including, inter alia, the aggravation of geopolitical tension and its potential impact on the ruble exchange rate dynamics, as well as potential changes in tax and tariff policy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
46
further upward pressure on prices may continue to come from temporary disruptions in production and supply chains.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
527
the bank of russia’s forecast has been substantially revised, including the inflation forecast for 2024, which has been raised to 6.5–7.0%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
377
despite the fact that inflation expectations of households and businesses notably declined in february and march, they remain elevated.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
5
inflation will be in the range of 4.7–5.2% as of the end of 2021.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
956
on 15 june 2015, the bank of russia board of directors decided to reduce the key rate from 12.50 to 11.50 percent per annum, taking account of lower inflation risks and persistent risks of considerable economy cooling.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
864
besides, the medium-term balance of risks for inflation dynamics will depend on potential budgetary and tariff decisions in 2019–2020.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
861
a slowdown in annual consumer price growth will be conducive to inflation expectations decrease.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
48
uncertainty persists over their subsequent movements.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,018
256