Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_mexico

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
sentences
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actions will be implemented in such a way that the reference rate remains consistent at all times with the trajectory needed to enable an orderly and sustained convergence of headline inflation to the 3% target during the forecast period.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
549
some members noted that the projected short-term trajectories for inflation are slightly higher than those published in the quarterly report october-december 2020.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
476
he/she noted that these measures should aim at promoting investment and consumption, particularly of durable goods.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
663
another member pointed out that inflation has been marginally above the central bank’s point target.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
820
one member underlined that, in some economies, core inflation even continues trending upwards.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
736
another member added that these measures’ intent is for households and firms to be able to face their temporarily lower incomes as a result of the pandemic, as well as to avoid a credit contraction.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
867
one member pointed out that expectations measured through compensation for inflation and inflation risk in 10-year bonds reached a historical high, and that the 10-year inflation risk premium remains at levels similar to those registered during other stress periods.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
32
one member added that, although it is in negative territory, it is not statistically different from zero.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
990
some members indicated the possibility of pressures arising from wage adjustments.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
676
most members pointed out that the forecasts for global economic activity have been revised downwards and, for this reason, global economic activity is expected to grow at a more moderate rate.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
234
fourth, he/she mentioned that the date of inflation’s convergence to the target continues to be postponed, and that both analysts’ inflation expectations and their incompatibility with the adjustments in the reference rate anticipated by many of them highlight the credibility challenges faced by the central bank.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
833
as to emerging economies, one member mentioned that their economic growth exhibits significant differences and has weakened.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
892
the majority added that the expected economic slowdown could mitigate the risk of the exchange rate pass-through.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
472
another member explained that the new level of the policy rate allows for reducing the level of monetary restriction to facilitate the efficient convergence of inflation to its target and maintain the relative monetary policy stance in order to avoid an unnecessarily widening of the spread between short-term instruments denominated in mexican pesos and in us dollars.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
201
he/she mentioned that the imf recommends lowering interest rates to the extent possible and emphasizing forward guidance on the expected pattern of monetary policy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
745
they added that inflation is still expected to converge to the target in the second quarter of 2025.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
678
one member underlined that labor force participation rates are at levels similar to those observed prior to the pandemic.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
959
in this context, one member considered that there are signs that some pressures on inflation in mexico have indeed started to moderate.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
710
if the aforementioned prevails, it would be a factor of concern that could be considered as a second-round effect on prices.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
159
one member considered that the reduction in longer- term interest rates in the united states was due to its favorable inflation figures.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
368
he/she stated that global market conditions and the continuation of accommodative policy stances in the main central banks have opened a space for patience.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
185
although one member acknowledged that expectations of additional actions by rating agencies have been delayed temporarily, another member argued that one rating agency has stated that significant increases of pemex’s net debt, an operational performance below forecasts, and a decline of crude oil reserves or of their expected duration, may lead to a downgrading of pemex’s rating, which would bring about the loss of its investment grade.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
728
one member highlighted that although the monetary policy target rate has increased by 100 basis points throughout the year, with the increase of more than practically unchanged between may and november.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
735
he/she warned about the risk that non-food merchandise inflation, as it converges to its mean, may no longer offset the persistence of services inflation, initiating an upward trend in core inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
492
the same member emphasized that both types of risks are operating in the same direction and reinforcing each other.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
505
some members highlighted the asset purchase programs implemented by these authorities.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,020
168
some members added labor market pressures and higher transportation costs.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
38
regarding growth expectations for 2020, another member pointed out that these have been adjusted downwards from april 2018 to april 2019.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
101
most members stated that for the next meeting, analysts and market participants foresee a pause.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
233
he/she considered that the materialization of these risks could require monetary restriction for a longer period.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
266
they indicated that this occurred in a context of increased demand from firms and in spite of the tighter monetary conditions.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
470
most members noted a certain improvement in stock markets.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
688
he/she highlighted the possibility that the resilience of economic activity continues through the horizon of monetary policy planning, the cyclical position of the economy in positive and increasing territory, that the labor market remains tight and does not show signs of easing, the persistence of core inflation, inflation expectations that are not declining to the required levels, and the procyclical fiscal policy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
707
some members emphasized the impact of the shortage of semiconductors on the automotive industry.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
278
victoria rodríguez, galia borja, irene espinosa, jonathan heath, and omar mejía voted in favor of increasing the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 11.25%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
570
another member argued that this scenario is expected to have adverse effects on the economic performance of these countries and, more markedly, on those economies where high levels of both public and private indebtedness, among other vulnerabilities, persist.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
670
in addition, most members mentioned the risks of public finances deteriorating or of increases in agricultural, livestock product or energy prices being greater than expected, which could make non-core inflation revert to higher levels.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
675
the same member noted that there is an exceptional contrast with business confidence, which has not really changed in the past months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
144
some members considered that the balance of risks around the projected trajectory of inflation remains uncertain.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
918
he/she highlighted that it is essential to send clear signals of commitment to the primary mandate in order to preserve the institution’s credibility.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
141
some members attributed the currency´s recent performance to the ample interest rate spread between mexico and the united states as well as to mexico’s sound macroeconomic fundamentals.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
263
another member attributed the stability of long-term expectations to the credibility of the central bank.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
128
they noted that this was observed in all its categories.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,024
607
all members underlined that in its october meeting, the us federal reserve cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
108
one member considered that public policies that incentivize the supply and demand of credit should be strengthened.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
105
one member considered that this reduces the vulnerability of the peso.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
35
as to fixed income markets, the majority of members mentioned that, after having increased securities have decreased, although they still remain volatile.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
839
nevertheless, the majority warned about pemex’s business plan continuing to be a cause of concern for the rating agencies.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
537
some members mentioned that due to the observed shocks and the levels reached by inflation, there is the risk of second-round effects on the price formation process.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,019
495
he/she added that, when the underemployed are included in the extended unemployment, the concept of labor gap is attained, which registered 40% in june, twice as large as the figure of march, but below the 53% recorded in may, which indicates that it has already bottomed out.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
979
he/she indicated that said shocks would materialize in a situation characterized by an inflation rate and its short- and long-term expectations above target, as well as by a weak economy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
271
he/she pointed out that it is necessary to remember the highly accommodative nature of the new monetary policy strategy adopted by the federal reserve.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
8
for the moment, we need a bit more time to confirm the trend the current positive signals seem to suggest as well as to assess if we need to adjust our reaction function given the global cyclical and monetary conditions we will face in the coming months.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
737
some members stated that in the main advanced economies, headline inflation continues converging to their central banks’ targets, albeit one of them added that core inflation has remained below such targets.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
523
this would signal that we are nearing the cycle’s terminal rate and would also be consistent with the current balance of risks.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
968
some members pointed out that the evolution of the electoral process in the united states also influenced markets.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
279
he/she argued that this is supported by the good performance of inflation, the stability of financial markets, and expectations of a long period in which the economy will remain depressed.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
853
he/she pointed out that, under these two axes, the monetary policy stance is expected to continue operating through its different channels.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
899
they consumption remain at high levels, such as consumer confidence, the total wage bill, and remittances.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
282
however, another member underlined that said tight conditions are expected to fade gradually, although it will be important to remain vigilant over the implications for the economy’s price formation process.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
758
some members considered that the economy's cyclical position have not changed significantly since the previous monetary policy decision.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
375
one member recalled how the impossibility of having a sufficiently low real interest rate during the financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a slower-thandesirable recovery of the us economy.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
937
he/she argued that the observed tightening in financial conditions, despite the reduction in the reference rate and weak fiscal support, reduces the room for maneuver for monetary policy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
92
one member pointed out that marginal inflows by foreign investors to the stock market were observed.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
371
he/she underlined that, looking ahead, the expected trajectory of inflation is similar to that already anticipated during the previous monetary policy decision.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
190
he/she stated that the central bank’s reaction function must be communicated with a clear and explicit forward guidance.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
546
they also considered that this could lead to a sharper economic deceleration.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
804
one member added that this is one of the largest within emerging economies.
irrelevant
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
325
in particular, this members expressed that there has been greater liquidity and depth in this market, as well as an increase in net long derivatives positions on the mexican peso.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
568
the same member noted that the strong inertia exhibited by both core and fundamental core inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,019
404
one member added that in these economies inflation remains close, or even below, their central banks’ targets, except for turkey and argentina.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
352
second, monetary policy actions have not achieved the desired effect on the real interest rate.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
866
they added that the accommodative monetary policy stances have also contributed to the favorable performance of said markets.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
208
one member pointed out that two thirds of the subsectors that comprise it register negative annual variations.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
679
first, credit to households and firms continues contracting.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
145
he/she added that regarding economic activity, recent world bank estimates show that a simultaneous one percentage point deceleration in the growth of the u.s., the euro area and china would generate a negative impact of 1.4 percentage points on growth of emerging economies in the first year alone, followed by a further fall of approximately one percentage point during the second year.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
567
regarding domestic demand, all members mentioned that consumption continued trending upwards during the fourth quarter of 2023.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
793
he/she added that the deterioration in the global economic environment, geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty about the reestablishment of supply chains, and the future path of world inflation, result in an even greater challenge for the conduction of monetary policy, and that the start of a period of elevated interest rates and economic weakness may be witnessed.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
6
he/she recalled that, given a complex outlook, in the previous monetary policy decision it was determined that for the following meeting an additional increase in the reference rate would be required.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
329
all members agreed that the balance of risks for growth remains biased to the downside.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
857
one member stated that ensuring the conditions for the country to take full advantage of the reconfiguration of global production chains would give a greater boost to domestic production, helping to counteract the anticipated cyclical weakness in external demand.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
653
he/she added that the complex and uncertain environment requires maintaining a cautious and firm monetary policy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
612
most members considered important to continue implementing measures to strengthen the credit provision channels, provide liquidity and foster the well-functioning of the financial system.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
104
he/she mentioned that in the case of mexico this would allow for the recovery of consumption and investment, which are the most affected aggregate demand components.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
21
most members stated that, looking ahead, inflationary pressures are expected to continue decreasing.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
517
he/she also pointed out that business sector expectations are still at high levels.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
514
he/she indicated that the bank’s forecasts suggest that this process will continue, while inflation expectations remain anchored and moving slowly towards their historical averages.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
69
one member stated that, in seasonally adjusted terms, at the end of 2020 imss-insured jobs were 786,693 below those registered in february.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
165
the same member pointed out that it is essential to maintain a prudent policy stance until the bank clearly fulfils its mandate in a more solid manner given that in order to ensure that headline inflation remains around 3%, it is necessary for core inflation to converge to that same level, albeit currently it is not very far from 3%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,019
301
one member argued that the monetary policy implemented in recent months has made a significant reduction in the reference rate compatible with an approach based on prudence.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
648
they also pointed out that there are factors that could contribute to episodes of risk aversion, such as those already mentioned for world economic all members agreed that economic activity in mexico has remained stagnant for several quarters.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
66
one member considered that the risk of energy prices being subject to pressures is limited due to the domestic fuel price policy.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
680
he/she pointed out that, in contrast, both services consumption and consumption of domestic durable goods still show a strong contraction.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
900
similarly, one member pointed out that specialists surveyed by the central bank once again revised their growth expectations downwards for the current and following years.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
450
most continued registering weakness, with levels lower than those prior to the pandemic, as well as a heterogeneous behavior among subsectors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
68
they mentioned that such performance was due to a favorable environment in international financial markets.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
700
some members mentioned that emerging economies also continued raising their reference rates.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
483
one member pointed out that, if monetary normalization in the united states begins earlier than expected, there could be episodes of volatility that could generate exchange rate pressures or wider spreads in the yield curve with respect to external government interest rates.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
729
he/she also pointed out that, in the presence of different adverse shocks, the mexican economy has had to adjust to a lesser availability of external financial resources.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
734
he/she noted that this contraction confirms the expectation of a tightening in credit approval for the first quarter of 2021 that was observed in banco de méxico’s survey on general conditions and standards in the banking credit market (enban, for its spanish acronym).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
58