gtfintechlab/bank_of_mexico · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 27 804	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.02k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
another member pointed out that domestic and external financing sources continued to increase during the third quarter.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	134
some members stated that it has been heterogeneous, with differences in the recovery rates of domestic demand as compared to those of external demand.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	522
to guide its monetary policy actions, banco de méxico’s governing board follows closely the development of inflation vis-à-vis its forecasted trajectory, taking into account the monetary policy stance and the time frame in which monetary policy operates as well as available information on all inflation determinants and on medium- and longterm inflation expectations, including the balance of risks for such factors.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	422
another member considered that the balance for financial risks is biased to the downside.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	239
another member stated that non-core inflation has almost reached its highest level in twenty years.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,022	996
one member mentioned that the output and unemployment gaps, along with other slack indicators, suggest the presence of demandrelated inflationary pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	146
one member stated that expectations for the end of 2022 are at a level close to the average observed in other inflationary episodes.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	218
one member added that it also reflects the outlook that investment will remain weak in the following quarters.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	290
one member pointed out that periods of more severe exchange rate volatility than those observed recently cannot be ruled out, with greater and more lasting effects on the exchange rate, which could particularly affect merchandise prices.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	783
among the elements of uncertainty that the mexican economy will continue to face, one of the members underlined the adverse sociopolitical environment that prevails in the country.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	473
most members added as upside risks a possible exchange rate adjustment, as well as greater-than-expected increases in agricultural and livestock prices.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	315
one member noted that slack is expected to diminish gradually.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	815
another member added that since the last monetary policy decision, advanced economies’ interest rates increased moderately and the us dollar registered a generalized depreciation.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	909
he/she expressed that the most effective defense for lower-income groups is to protect their purchasing power and to mitigate the impact on employment.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	934
he/she highlighted that, nevertheless, mexico does not stand out for being the country with the highest levels of headline inflation among other countries that registered similar levels of inflation prior to the pandemic.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	402
in this regard, he/she highlighted technological change and the integration of regions with abundant labor force into globalization, which have allowed for the fragmentation of productive processes according to comparative advantages and to the cost structure of different countries and regions.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	510
he/she expressed that this is feasible since: i) the volatility-adjusted interest rate spread relative to the united states is one of the highest among emerging economies; ii) the mexican peso stands out for its good performance and low volatility; iii) the federal reserve's policy stance is an important factor to consider, but mexico’s monetary policy stance should rely more on the evolution of domestic variables and on the absolute policy stance; iv) mexico started the hiking cycle earlier, and with a 75-basis point increase the policy stance would be situated in restrictive territory; v) unlike the united states, mexico does not seem to face inflationary pressures from demand or the labor market; and vi) inflation in mexico is closer to its target than the united states and other countries.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	732
some members argued that headline inflation expectations drawn from surveys remain above banco de méxico's forecasts.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	26
in contrast, one of the members stated that most financial assets in advanced economies exhibited marginal changes.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	39
he/she pointed out that in addition to further surprises and shocks, monetary policy adjustments have been insufficient to counter the deterioration of price formation and have had a limited impact on the real interest rate, which remains below the required level.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	86
the same member also stated the existence of prevailing concerns about the situation of italy's public finances and financing in the short and medium terms and the sanctions the european union authorities may impose on that country.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	47
another member pointed out that a certain reversal in said rates has been observed in recent days.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	807
most members highlighted that in the foreseeable future all factors and elements that have an impact on both inflation and its outlook should be followed, and the necessary actions be taken, so that the policy rate is consistent with the orderly convergence of headline inflation to banco de méxico’s target within the time frame in which monetary policy operates.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	957
in this regard, he/she recalled that between basis points to a level of 8.25% and it was at that point when gross private investment reached its peak, while from that time up to now it has contracted policy’s room for maneuver to boost consumption is limited in the absence of fiscal support to avoid the closing of companies, job losses and the consequent decrease in credit to households and firms, especially smes, due to the increase in risk perception of financial institutions.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	903
some members underlined that analysts’ inflation expectations for all terms remain above those projected by banco de méxico.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	526
another member mentioned that sovereign credit default swaps (cds) are at nearly half the level observed at the end of 2018.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	933
finally, one member also mentioned the potential impact of the increase to the tax on flavored drinks and on cigarettes projected on the 2020 budget.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	454
another member argued that the persistence of services inflation is a widespread phenomenon, even in economies that exhibit some slack, which could be largely explained by a reversal in consumption patterns rather than by demandrelated pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	606
he/she considered that it is difficult to estimate the output gap in the two-year horizon in which monetary policy has an effect, given the environment of uncertainty and the possibility that the potential growth of the economy is below the estimated figure.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	941
most members underlined that a recovery is expected during the second half of 2020, which would extend to next year.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	298
he/she mentioned that the interest rate derivatives market exhibited a similar behavior to that of government bonds, with significant increases and high volatility.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,024	702
one member added that a healthy and wellcapitalized financial system must be maintained, in addition to reducing both mexico’s sovereign and pemex’s credit risk.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	142
looking ahead, the board expects that the inflationary environment will allow further reference rate adjustments.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	273
he/she pointed out that a 75 basis-point increase would achieve this objective and would reflect the central bank's commitment to its primary mandate, in a context of significant inflationary pressures.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	943
one member stated that, according to an analysis of the inflationary process, pressures on the core component have tended to intensify, even after discounting the base effect.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	223
as for inflation expectations derived from market instruments, one member mentioned that these have remained unchanged for three consecutive months, while another stated that the differentials between nominal and real yields continue suggesting upward risks for inflation in the long run.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	154
he/she added that, naturally, the contraction of employment has been more marked in certain regions of the country, such as the northern border zone, where greater wage adjustments have been observed, even showing a sharp contrast with the neighboring municipalities that have not been affected by such adjustments.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	103
one member added that the risk of potential losses for banks and brokerage firms due to interest rate increases has decreased.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	724
in this regard, one of the members stated that the economy is anticipated to grow even below potential during the next quarters and that the output gap will near zero in 2019.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	369
he/she added that this will place the central bank in a better position to ensure that the expected trajectory for inflation materializes.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	502
he/she stated that the effects of the external environment on the relative monetary policy stance are yet to be defined.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	44
with this decision, the monetary policy stance remains in the trajectory required for inflation to converge the board will thoroughly monitor inflationary pressures as well as all factors that have an incidence on the foreseen path for inflation and its expectations.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	532
all members mentioned that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the mexican economy registered a greater-than-expected slowdown.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	106
one member stated that its evolution has mainly been concentrated in imported goods.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	558
one member noted that this is in line with the transitory nature of the recent increase in inflation.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	259
he/she highlighted that in the absence of fiscal discipline, the central bank is obliged to provide such an anchor, but that the current fiscal policy should make room for a more accommodative monetary policy.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	616
he/she added that, given the magnitude of the wage increase, it is foreseeable that a significant number of micro and small enterprises, which group the largest number of workers earning the minimum wage, will have to pass-through such adjustments to the prices of their products, cut their number of employees, or, in the worst case, abandon formality.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	114
nevertheless, he/she specified that, in the 1224-month forecast horizon, both headline and core inflation are expected to lay around 3%.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	795
regarding credit risk, he/she indicated that delinquency levels remain at relatively low and stable levels, despite exhibiting a marginal upward trend.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	338
another member mentioned that although an increase in energy prices was observed in january, the federal government’s price policy for these goods will contribute to keep inflation under control in the following months.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	155
jonathan heath voted in favor of maintaining the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at we need to be patient in order for the current monetary policy stance to have the desired effect on the persistence in services inflation.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	186
he/she stated that the favorable performance of private consumption is evidence of demand-related pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	222
they added that this constitutes a risk for the sovereign rating and highlighted the possibility that the state company may require additional fiscal support, which could affect public finances.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	162
he/she pointed out an increase in inflation, a steepening of the yield curve, a greater depreciation of the mexican peso, an increase in risk aversion, certain impacts on macrofinancial stability, and the possibility of more external shocks of a financial nature.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	862
another member added the upward revision in inflation expectations, the greater inflationary uncertainty, and even a possible upward bias in inflation as other factors leading to increases in u.s. interest rates.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	87
they pointed out that the main stock markets registered gains, some of them reaching historically high levels.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	569
thus, he/she indicated that in this meeting the reference rate should be maintained at 11.25%.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	164
similarly, the same member mentioned that an escalation of trade tensions between china and the u.s. may benefit mexico, as a result of the natural redirectioning of certain bilateral trade flows between those countries.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	90
in order to avoid such risks, they deemed necessary to reinforce the monetary policy stance by adjusting it to the trajectory required for inflation to converge to its 3% target within the forecast horizon.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	843
as for the risk related to political and geopolitical factors, some members stated that in the eurozone some vulnerabilities associated with domestic turmoil and political differences have increased, stating as an example those related to the approval of the budgetary process in italy, the brexit, the u.s. midterm elections in november, and brazil’s presidential elections.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	945
this member also mentioned that this could suggest that, although the market recognizes some degree of volatility surrounding the country’s elections, it assumes that in the medium-and long terms the peso’s foreign exchange will return to the levels observed at the beginning of 2018, thus implying that the prevailing macroeconomic conditions are expected to continue.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	775
in this respect, the member added that the recent deterioration of financial markets has resulted in an increase in the cost of financing for the government, reducing even more the scope of action.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	762
one member added that it has also reflected a trajectory of wages that has been incompatible with the evolution of productivity.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	354
he/she added that services inflation, which better reflects domestic pressures, keeps showing a resistance to decline and remains at high levels.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	748
most members stressed that, in the opinion of economic analysts surveyed by banco de méxico, the current juncture to make investments is going through difficult times.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	29
one member recalled that, in this episode, both components reached their highest levels since the inflation targeting regime was adopted in mexico.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	840
however, they added that, in lower than those registered during the previous quarter.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	544
as for growth forecasts, some members pointed out that timely indicators suggest that, in the u.s., gdp will continue growing at a high rate for the remainder of the year.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	287
they particularly highlighted the strength of public construction associated with railway works, and, to a lesser extent, of private construction of industrial, commercial, and service buildings associated with the infrastructure projects in the southern part of mexico.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	727
one member warned that in recent months these expectations have already started to be revised upwards.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	703
most members also considered the increasing challenges for monetary policy, stemming from the ongoing tightening of global pressures associated with the geopolitical china, as well as the possibility of greater negative effects on inflation.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	626
he/she pointed out that these have contributed to raise inflation expectations of business and consumers, as well as expectations implicit in fixed-income markets.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	446
one member stated that the exchange rate adjustment occurred through a reduction in long positions and an increased demand for currency hedging in light of the risk of a greater depreciation, which were partially offset by increased positions on short- and medium-term government securities.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	207
most members noted that external demand exhibited sluggishness.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	466
the majority highlighted that among the main risks those that stand out are: i) an escalation of trade disputes; ii) a disorderly brexit; and, iii) political and geopolitical risks.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	605
they mentioned that the above have been affected by an outlook of more restrictive monetary policies in the main advanced economies and by a lower global growth outlook.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	75
he/she stated that, despite the low level of development of the financial system, when credit fluctuations are very pronounced, such as in the current juncture, their impact on aggregate activity is significant despite the fact that only a fraction of the economy operates with bank credit.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	16
such member underscored that, in a situation as the one described, the risk of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations exists and, thus, a forceful response from the central bank is needed.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	428
and that it also announced a decrease in the rate of reduction of its balance sheet starting in june.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	98
all members agreed that the message of banco de méxico should be that of its commitment to reach the inflation target.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	960
one member argued that measures of economic slack will gain even more relevance in the coming months.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	485
he/she considered that the factors that exert pressure on inflation cannot operate indefinitely and stand in contrast with structural inflation determinants, such as globalization and technological change.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	538
regarding this last point, one member noted that in the united states, the deflator for durable goods spending increased from -1.54% in february 2020 to that have pressured inflation, the lack of flexibility in production of goods and the unprecedented distortions in the labor market that have led to lower availability of labor, which could be associated with the perception of contagion risk and with the effects of transfers to households.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	572
some members noted that this was due to a greater risk appetite among international investors.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	61
he/she also noted that the situation of the current monetary policy stance should also be considered, as such stance, despite having faced other shocks and their inflationary effects over the last years, and albeit being already in a downward adjustment process, is still at relatively high levels, in an economy that, in face of the covid-19 pandemic, will suffer a very sizable impact that will lead it to a significant recession.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	689
in this regard, such members argued that the effect on inflation of the minimum wage increase is expected to be moderate.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	615
another member highlighted that none of the inflation determinants have deteriorated significantly to the point of expecting upward pressures on prices given that: i) ample slack conditions persist; ii) the peso exchange rate has withstood episodes of volatility and has depreciated only moderately; and iii) despite the increases in international oil prices, their impact on domestic prices is expected to be partially mitigated by the federal government's pricing policy.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	976
the central bank reaffirms its commitment with its primary mandate and the need to continue its efforts to consolidate an environment of low and stable one member highlighted that it is essential to continue with a very cautious approach, carefully assessing the outlook for inflation and its determinants.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	260
another member pointed out that inflation expectations drawn from market instruments for the 6- to 10-year average remain at most members stated that, in view of greater- forecasts for headline and core inflation were revised upwards up to the second and the third convergence to the 3% target during the first quarter of 2024 is maintained.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	948
another member considered that the expected trajectory of this component remains highly uncertain.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	518
one member stated that the latter contributes to an orderly adjustment of mexican financial markets and of the economy as a whole.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	779
most members mentioned that between april and the first fortnight of june 2019, headline inflation decreased from 4.41 to 4.00%.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	46
one member argued that, although formal employment has already recovered and total employment is close to its prepandemic level, public policy should strive to attain the employment levels that would have been observed if the pandemic had not taken place.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	527
as to the core component, some members highlighted that it has shown persistence.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	377
one member acknowledged that there is a certain effect of labor market dynamics, but he/she stated that their magnitude does not seem to be such as to explain the levels reached by services inflation.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	5
on the supply side, most members underlined the heterogeneous recovery across different sectors.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,021	956
he/she mentioned that domestic demand remains weak, while external demand has recovered rapidly and that this difference is due to the fact that the former is directly affected by domestic monetary policy, which still remains restrictive in relation to the economic conditions, while the latter is benefited by the fiscal and monetary stimuli in other economies.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	864
he/she pointed out that this new opportunity must now be leveraged to avoid sending the message of complacency as in the past, by prematurely and automatically confirming a ratecutting cycle.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	861
nevertheless, the same member noted that this process will be faster in the united states than in other countries.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,018	48
some members highlighted that the sound macroeconomic fundamentals have contributed to the relatively favorable performance of domestic financial markets, particularly of the foreign exchange market.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	256

another member pointed out that domestic and external financing sources continued to increase during the third quarter.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

134

some members stated that it has been heterogeneous, with differences in the recovery rates of domestic demand as compared to those of external demand.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

522

to guide its monetary policy actions, banco de méxico’s governing board follows closely the development of inflation vis-à-vis its forecasted trajectory, taking into account the monetary policy stance and the time frame in which monetary policy operates as well as available information on all inflation determinants and on medium- and longterm inflation expectations, including the balance of risks for such factors.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

422

another member considered that the balance for financial risks is biased to the downside.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

239

another member stated that non-core inflation has almost reached its highest level in twenty years.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,022

996

one member mentioned that the output and unemployment gaps, along with other slack indicators, suggest the presence of demandrelated inflationary pressures.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

146

one member stated that expectations for the end of 2022 are at a level close to the average observed in other inflationary episodes.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

218

one member added that it also reflects the outlook that investment will remain weak in the following quarters.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

290

one member pointed out that periods of more severe exchange rate volatility than those observed recently cannot be ruled out, with greater and more lasting effects on the exchange rate, which could particularly affect merchandise prices.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

783

among the elements of uncertainty that the mexican economy will continue to face, one of the members underlined the adverse sociopolitical environment that prevails in the country.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

473

most members added as upside risks a possible exchange rate adjustment, as well as greater-than-expected increases in agricultural and livestock prices.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

315

one member noted that slack is expected to diminish gradually.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

815

another member added that since the last monetary policy decision, advanced economies’ interest rates increased moderately and the us dollar registered a generalized depreciation.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

909

he/she expressed that the most effective defense for lower-income groups is to protect their purchasing power and to mitigate the impact on employment.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

934

he/she highlighted that, nevertheless, mexico does not stand out for being the country with the highest levels of headline inflation among other countries that registered similar levels of inflation prior to the pandemic.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

402

in this regard, he/she highlighted technological change and the integration of regions with abundant labor force into globalization, which have allowed for the fragmentation of productive processes according to comparative advantages and to the cost structure of different countries and regions.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

510

he/she expressed that this is feasible since: i) the volatility-adjusted interest rate spread relative to the united states is one of the highest among emerging economies; ii) the mexican peso stands out for its good performance and low volatility; iii) the federal reserve's policy stance is an important factor to consider, but mexico’s monetary policy stance should rely more on the evolution of domestic variables and on the absolute policy stance; iv) mexico started the hiking cycle earlier, and with a 75-basis point increase the policy stance would be situated in restrictive territory; v) unlike the united states, mexico does not seem to face inflationary pressures from demand or the labor market; and vi) inflation in mexico is closer to its target than the united states and other countries.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

732

some members argued that headline inflation expectations drawn from surveys remain above banco de méxico's forecasts.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

26

in contrast, one of the members stated that most financial assets in advanced economies exhibited marginal changes.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

39

he/she pointed out that in addition to further surprises and shocks, monetary policy adjustments have been insufficient to counter the deterioration of price formation and have had a limited impact on the real interest rate, which remains below the required level.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

86

the same member also stated the existence of prevailing concerns about the situation of italy's public finances and financing in the short and medium terms and the sanctions the european union authorities may impose on that country.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

47

another member pointed out that a certain reversal in said rates has been observed in recent days.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

807

most members highlighted that in the foreseeable future all factors and elements that have an impact on both inflation and its outlook should be followed, and the necessary actions be taken, so that the policy rate is consistent with the orderly convergence of headline inflation to banco de méxico’s target within the time frame in which monetary policy operates.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

957

in this regard, he/she recalled that between basis points to a level of 8.25% and it was at that point when gross private investment reached its peak, while from that time up to now it has contracted policy’s room for maneuver to boost consumption is limited in the absence of fiscal support to avoid the closing of companies, job losses and the consequent decrease in credit to households and firms, especially smes, due to the increase in risk perception of financial institutions.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

903

some members underlined that analysts’ inflation expectations for all terms remain above those projected by banco de méxico.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

526

another member mentioned that sovereign credit default swaps (cds) are at nearly half the level observed at the end of 2018.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

933

finally, one member also mentioned the potential impact of the increase to the tax on flavored drinks and on cigarettes projected on the 2020 budget.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,019

454

another member argued that the persistence of services inflation is a widespread phenomenon, even in economies that exhibit some slack, which could be largely explained by a reversal in consumption patterns rather than by demandrelated pressures.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,024

606

he/she considered that it is difficult to estimate the output gap in the two-year horizon in which monetary policy has an effect, given the environment of uncertainty and the possibility that the potential growth of the economy is below the estimated figure.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

941

most members underlined that a recovery is expected during the second half of 2020, which would extend to next year.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

298

he/she mentioned that the interest rate derivatives market exhibited a similar behavior to that of government bonds, with significant increases and high volatility.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,024

702

one member added that a healthy and wellcapitalized financial system must be maintained, in addition to reducing both mexico’s sovereign and pemex’s credit risk.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,020

142

looking ahead, the board expects that the inflationary environment will allow further reference rate adjustments.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

273

he/she pointed out that a 75 basis-point increase would achieve this objective and would reflect the central bank's commitment to its primary mandate, in a context of significant inflationary pressures.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

943

one member stated that, according to an analysis of the inflationary process, pressures on the core component have tended to intensify, even after discounting the base effect.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

223

as for inflation expectations derived from market instruments, one member mentioned that these have remained unchanged for three consecutive months, while another stated that the differentials between nominal and real yields continue suggesting upward risks for inflation in the long run.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

154

he/she added that, naturally, the contraction of employment has been more marked in certain regions of the country, such as the northern border zone, where greater wage adjustments have been observed, even showing a sharp contrast with the neighboring municipalities that have not been affected by such adjustments.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

103

one member added that the risk of potential losses for banks and brokerage firms due to interest rate increases has decreased.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

724

in this regard, one of the members stated that the economy is anticipated to grow even below potential during the next quarters and that the output gap will near zero in 2019.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

369

he/she added that this will place the central bank in a better position to ensure that the expected trajectory for inflation materializes.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

502

he/she stated that the effects of the external environment on the relative monetary policy stance are yet to be defined.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

44

with this decision, the monetary policy stance remains in the trajectory required for inflation to converge the board will thoroughly monitor inflationary pressures as well as all factors that have an incidence on the foreseen path for inflation and its expectations.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

532

all members mentioned that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the mexican economy registered a greater-than-expected slowdown.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

106

one member stated that its evolution has mainly been concentrated in imported goods.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

558

one member noted that this is in line with the transitory nature of the recent increase in inflation.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

259

he/she highlighted that in the absence of fiscal discipline, the central bank is obliged to provide such an anchor, but that the current fiscal policy should make room for a more accommodative monetary policy.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

616

he/she added that, given the magnitude of the wage increase, it is foreseeable that a significant number of micro and small enterprises, which group the largest number of workers earning the minimum wage, will have to pass-through such adjustments to the prices of their products, cut their number of employees, or, in the worst case, abandon formality.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,020

114

nevertheless, he/she specified that, in the 1224-month forecast horizon, both headline and core inflation are expected to lay around 3%.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

795

regarding credit risk, he/she indicated that delinquency levels remain at relatively low and stable levels, despite exhibiting a marginal upward trend.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

338

another member mentioned that although an increase in energy prices was observed in january, the federal government’s price policy for these goods will contribute to keep inflation under control in the following months.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

155

jonathan heath voted in favor of maintaining the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at we need to be patient in order for the current monetary policy stance to have the desired effect on the persistence in services inflation.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

186

he/she stated that the favorable performance of private consumption is evidence of demand-related pressures.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

222

they added that this constitutes a risk for the sovereign rating and highlighted the possibility that the state company may require additional fiscal support, which could affect public finances.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

162

he/she pointed out an increase in inflation, a steepening of the yield curve, a greater depreciation of the mexican peso, an increase in risk aversion, certain impacts on macrofinancial stability, and the possibility of more external shocks of a financial nature.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

862

another member added the upward revision in inflation expectations, the greater inflationary uncertainty, and even a possible upward bias in inflation as other factors leading to increases in u.s. interest rates.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

87

they pointed out that the main stock markets registered gains, some of them reaching historically high levels.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

569

thus, he/she indicated that in this meeting the reference rate should be maintained at 11.25%.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

164

similarly, the same member mentioned that an escalation of trade tensions between china and the u.s. may benefit mexico, as a result of the natural redirectioning of certain bilateral trade flows between those countries.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

90

in order to avoid such risks, they deemed necessary to reinforce the monetary policy stance by adjusting it to the trajectory required for inflation to converge to its 3% target within the forecast horizon.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

843

as for the risk related to political and geopolitical factors, some members stated that in the eurozone some vulnerabilities associated with domestic turmoil and political differences have increased, stating as an example those related to the approval of the budgetary process in italy, the brexit, the u.s. midterm elections in november, and brazil’s presidential elections.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

945

this member also mentioned that this could suggest that, although the market recognizes some degree of volatility surrounding the country’s elections, it assumes that in the medium-and long terms the peso’s foreign exchange will return to the levels observed at the beginning of 2018, thus implying that the prevailing macroeconomic conditions are expected to continue.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

775

in this respect, the member added that the recent deterioration of financial markets has resulted in an increase in the cost of financing for the government, reducing even more the scope of action.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,018

762

one member added that it has also reflected a trajectory of wages that has been incompatible with the evolution of productivity.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

354

he/she added that services inflation, which better reflects domestic pressures, keeps showing a resistance to decline and remains at high levels.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

748

most members stressed that, in the opinion of economic analysts surveyed by banco de méxico, the current juncture to make investments is going through difficult times.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

29

one member recalled that, in this episode, both components reached their highest levels since the inflation targeting regime was adopted in mexico.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

840

however, they added that, in lower than those registered during the previous quarter.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

544

as for growth forecasts, some members pointed out that timely indicators suggest that, in the u.s., gdp will continue growing at a high rate for the remainder of the year.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

287

they particularly highlighted the strength of public construction associated with railway works, and, to a lesser extent, of private construction of industrial, commercial, and service buildings associated with the infrastructure projects in the southern part of mexico.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

727

one member warned that in recent months these expectations have already started to be revised upwards.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

703

most members also considered the increasing challenges for monetary policy, stemming from the ongoing tightening of global pressures associated with the geopolitical china, as well as the possibility of greater negative effects on inflation.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

626

he/she pointed out that these have contributed to raise inflation expectations of business and consumers, as well as expectations implicit in fixed-income markets.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

446

one member stated that the exchange rate adjustment occurred through a reduction in long positions and an increased demand for currency hedging in light of the risk of a greater depreciation, which were partially offset by increased positions on short- and medium-term government securities.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

207

most members noted that external demand exhibited sluggishness.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

466

the majority highlighted that among the main risks those that stand out are: i) an escalation of trade disputes; ii) a disorderly brexit; and, iii) political and geopolitical risks.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

605

they mentioned that the above have been affected by an outlook of more restrictive monetary policies in the main advanced economies and by a lower global growth outlook.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

75

he/she stated that, despite the low level of development of the financial system, when credit fluctuations are very pronounced, such as in the current juncture, their impact on aggregate activity is significant despite the fact that only a fraction of the economy operates with bank credit.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

16

such member underscored that, in a situation as the one described, the risk of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations exists and, thus, a forceful response from the central bank is needed.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

428

and that it also announced a decrease in the rate of reduction of its balance sheet starting in june.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

98

all members agreed that the message of banco de méxico should be that of its commitment to reach the inflation target.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

960

one member argued that measures of economic slack will gain even more relevance in the coming months.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

485

he/she considered that the factors that exert pressure on inflation cannot operate indefinitely and stand in contrast with structural inflation determinants, such as globalization and technological change.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

538

regarding this last point, one member noted that in the united states, the deflator for durable goods spending increased from -1.54% in february 2020 to that have pressured inflation, the lack of flexibility in production of goods and the unprecedented distortions in the labor market that have led to lower availability of labor, which could be associated with the perception of contagion risk and with the effects of transfers to households.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

572

some members noted that this was due to a greater risk appetite among international investors.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

61

he/she also noted that the situation of the current monetary policy stance should also be considered, as such stance, despite having faced other shocks and their inflationary effects over the last years, and albeit being already in a downward adjustment process, is still at relatively high levels, in an economy that, in face of the covid-19 pandemic, will suffer a very sizable impact that will lead it to a significant recession.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,020

689

in this regard, such members argued that the effect on inflation of the minimum wage increase is expected to be moderate.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

615

another member highlighted that none of the inflation determinants have deteriorated significantly to the point of expecting upward pressures on prices given that: i) ample slack conditions persist; ii) the peso exchange rate has withstood episodes of volatility and has depreciated only moderately; and iii) despite the increases in international oil prices, their impact on domestic prices is expected to be partially mitigated by the federal government's pricing policy.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

976

the central bank reaffirms its commitment with its primary mandate and the need to continue its efforts to consolidate an environment of low and stable one member highlighted that it is essential to continue with a very cautious approach, carefully assessing the outlook for inflation and its determinants.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

260

another member pointed out that inflation expectations drawn from market instruments for the 6- to 10-year average remain at most members stated that, in view of greater- forecasts for headline and core inflation were revised upwards up to the second and the third convergence to the 3% target during the first quarter of 2024 is maintained.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

948

another member considered that the expected trajectory of this component remains highly uncertain.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

518

one member stated that the latter contributes to an orderly adjustment of mexican financial markets and of the economy as a whole.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

779

most members mentioned that between april and the first fortnight of june 2019, headline inflation decreased from 4.41 to 4.00%.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

46

one member argued that, although formal employment has already recovered and total employment is close to its prepandemic level, public policy should strive to attain the employment levels that would have been observed if the pandemic had not taken place.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

527

as to the core component, some members highlighted that it has shown persistence.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

377

one member acknowledged that there is a certain effect of labor market dynamics, but he/she stated that their magnitude does not seem to be such as to explain the levels reached by services inflation.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

5

on the supply side, most members underlined the heterogeneous recovery across different sectors.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,021

956

he/she mentioned that domestic demand remains weak, while external demand has recovered rapidly and that this difference is due to the fact that the former is directly affected by domestic monetary policy, which still remains restrictive in relation to the economic conditions, while the latter is benefited by the fiscal and monetary stimuli in other economies.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

864

he/she pointed out that this new opportunity must now be leveraged to avoid sending the message of complacency as in the past, by prematurely and automatically confirming a ratecutting cycle.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

861

nevertheless, the same member noted that this process will be faster in the united states than in other countries.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,018

48

some members highlighted that the sound macroeconomic fundamentals have contributed to the relatively favorable performance of domestic financial markets, particularly of the foreign exchange market.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

256