Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_mexico

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
sentences
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he/she pointed out that the outcome will depend on the intensity of each of the abovementioned pressures, as well as on the interaction among them.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
157
with this action, the monetary policy stance adjusts to the trajectory required for inflation to converge to its 3% target within the the board will thoroughly monitor inflationary pressures as well as all factors that have an incidence on the foreseen path for inflation and its expectations.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
269
he/she added that emerging economies registered a lower dynamism during the same period compared to the previous quarter.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
336
one member underlined the decline in mobility caused by the contagion rate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
586
he/she highlighted that core inflation rates for may, june and july were the highest for similar months since 1999.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
908
one member mentioned the possibility of complications in the united kingdom’s withdrawal from the european union.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
14
one member mentioned that its asset purchase program has concluded.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
582
one stressed that it is estimated that the shortage of fuel in some states will have a negative effect on gdp growth in the first quarter of 2019, which will depend on its intensity and duration.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
293
the majority noted that lower rates of change in the prices of certain goods included in the non-core subindex, as observed in the case of energy goods due to the greater weakness exhibited by the world economy, would also contribute to reduce core inflation.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
34
some members pointed to the risk of greater cost-related pressures.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
706
another member pointed out that although tensions in domestic financial markets have moderated, several warning indicators persist.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
326
most members highlighted that the disinflation members pointed out that headline inflation has continued decreasing in most advanced economies.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
886
he/she pointed out that, at the same time, the market foresees inflation levels higher than the central bank's forecasts.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
682
the same member mentioned that the unavoidable government expenditures must be considered, which include transfers to the states, pension payments, and the cost of public debt.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
931
he/she mentioned the risk of price-related pressures on agricultural and livestock products due to the impact of the el niño meteorological phenomenon.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
181
one member pointed out that, during the first 7 months of the year, remittances increased by 23.5% as compared to the same period of 2020, and that in july the wage bill exceeded the levels registered in february 2020.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
80
one member added that it is important to increase productivity by adopting new technologies and investing in human capital.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
497
another member stated that the dynamics within the components of inflation has led to an upward adjustment of forecasts.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
63
some members stated that in their last policy meetings most central banks of advanced economies left their reference rates unchanged once again.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
79
with the proposed increase, he/she considered that the expected trajectory of inflation, as well as the associated balance of risks, are consistent with slowing the pace of interest rate increases.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
406
thus, he/she pointed out that the convergence of the core component will depend on the absence of additional shocks, which he/she considered is a strong assumption given the high levels of oil, commodities, sea freight and food prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
786
however, he/she detailed that most of them are expected to continue reducing their monetary restriction until they converge to their neutral positions in 2025.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
311
some members highlighted that the mexican peso has a high level of sensitivity due to its use as a hedge currency and, therefore, it should be taken into account that lowering short-term interest rates in mexico reduces the cost of this type of transactions.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
986
he/she argued that, if it continues, this trend would represent a deterioration of long-term inflation expectations, since it would imply a stronger anchoring of such expectations at levels above the target.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
821
some members highlighted that said institution acknowledged that the risks to the fulfillment of its employment and price stability mandates are moving towards a better balance.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
33
regarding economic activity, most members pointed out that the outlook for the u.s. economy has strengthened.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
296
they mentioned that mexican banks exceed capitalization.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
62
he/she added that the persistence of monthly inflation has been reduced to less than half the level of 2009, thus contributing to prevent expectations from being contaminated.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
211
he/she noted that it must be explained that inflationary shocks demand decisive actions and it must be warned that, if inflation continues to increase, the expansionary policy stance will continue to diminish.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
339
some members mentioned that the fall observed in the stock market was due to lower economic activity and to local uncertainty factors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
542
another member argued that, considering the number of businesses that have closed down permanently, based on the number of those that have withdrawn their registration at the imss, it can be concluded that a large part of the current unemployment is permanent, since these are not jobs that may be regained during the reactivation of the economy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
56
one member stated that inflationary pressures continue increasing and their persistence is not expected to diminish for a long period.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
396
he/she mentioned that the fundamental role of monetary policy is to stop the inflationary inertia that has developed over the last year, and that it is therefore necessary to act in a timely and decisive manner.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
768
therefore, if the expected convergence of inflation to its target is confirmed, the same member mentioned that a greater monetary policy easing might be considered.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
628
with regards to the absolute policy stance, he/she noted that low economic activity and reduced risk aversion open space for further easing, although the temporary increase in inflation could reduce this margin for a few months.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
764
another member stated that, in his/her opinion, although it is convenient to modify the objective for the reference rate, currently a single 25 basis point increase is far from being sufficient to realign the expected trajectory of inflation to its target of 3% in general, not only within the forecast horizon.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
545
he/she argued that, given the environment of uncertainty surrounding decision-making, monetary policy’s approach should remain prudent, cautious and gradual, in line with the challenges that continue to be faced, in order for inflation to converge to the target, and consistent with seeking an orderly behavior of markets, the financial system, and the economy as a whole.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
340
most members mentioned that the country’s economic performance was a consequence of the slowdown of the world economy, of some weakness in domestic demand, and of some transitory factors, such as the fuel distribution problems and the blocking of railways, which could have affected growth during the first quarter of the year.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
742
with regard to the us economy, some members highlighted the moderation of its growth rate and the weakening of investment.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
30
he/she added that it will only be possible to decouple from the federal reserve when the inflationary dynamics diverge or when there is certainty regarding the federal reserve’s final interest rate.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
657
among risks to the global economy, most members highlighted those associated with the pandemic, the intensification of geopolitical tensions, and tighter monetary and financial conditions.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
241
most members attributed the recovery of the global economy to the partial reopening of activities in certain economies.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
324
such member stated that having a sound macroeconomic policy contributes to an orderly adjustment of the economy and to the attainment of the inflation target, and provides the necessary room to adopt the required actions to foster greater certainty and confidence.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
725
some members pointed out that data confirms that the subindexes that are more labor intensive and more related to wages, have had the highest increases.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
449
he/she noted that in june there were fewer technical shutdowns in assembly plants, although the production of light vehicles has not yet regained its pre-pandemic levels.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
407
another member highlighted a greater reduction of public revenues.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
53
most members noted that market instruments are pricing in interest rate cuts during the second half of 2023.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
200
one member highlighted that, based on the opinion of business owners and economic forecasters, among the obstacles to economic activity in mexico, the factors related to governance problems (public insecurity, political instability, impunity and corruption) and uncertainty in domestic economic conditions stand out.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
97
another member noted that inflation forecasts have continued to be revised upwards since the current tightening cycle began in june to reach its highest point in the first quarter of 2022, as the inflationary shocks that were observed in the same period of the previous year begin to fade.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
150
they highlighted that the foreign exchange market continues operating in an orderly manner, in a context where markets and most analysts expect a downward adjustment in the interest rate differential between mexico and the united states.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
194
some members added the lower availability of financing to households and businesses, although one mentioned that remittances have grown, thus supporting domestic spending.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
747
he/she also stated that the level of restriction attained is sufficiently robust in light of possible adjustments in the stance relative to other economies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
310
he/she affirmed that monetary policy decisions should remain independent of the decisions made by the federal reserve and that it is not possible to compare mexico’s interest rate spreads with those of other countries since the target rates respond to contexts and needs that are not entirely comparable.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
7
given the expectation of a fragile, difficult and prolonged economic recovery, it is necessary to adopt, as practically in the rest of the world, a highly accommodative stance, and to point out that it will remain so for a long period.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
805
one member considered that the us labor market continues being strong despite the tightening of monetary conditions.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
390
one member highlighted that the mexican peso performed better than other latin american currencies, some of which have been more exposed to political and social risks, either directly or by contagion.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
245
most members noted that the federal reserve indicated that it could start reducing its asset purchase program this year and that the program would end in mid-2022.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
18
such member pointed out that despite such explanations, a high degree of uncertainty persists as to the price formation process in the united states, which increases the probability of inflationary surprises.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
341
some members highlighted that merchandise inflation is at double-digit levels.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
286
with respect to financing in the economy, another member stated that in july financing to the nonfinancial private sector continued increasing, albeit at a slower pace than in recent months.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
461
he/she added that in the current juncture, the availability of credit is crucial to prevent solvent firms from going bankrupt due to liquidity problems, and therefore the central bank measures to facilitate lending to small- and mediumsized firms are appropriate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
656
most members stated that markets expect the first cut in the second quarter of 2024.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
363
regarding construction, most members stressed that its decline intensified during the year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
940
another member noted that mexico's economic recovery is still incomplete.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
649
another member added the lower credit risk premia and the improvement in the country-risk perception, as well as the stability of public finances and the lower uncertainty regarding international trade.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
15
some members agreed that the slowdown of global economic activity has moderated expectations of a faster reduction of the monetary stimulus.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
342
in this regard, he/she underlined the importance of pointing out that monetary policy will be implemented in a prudent manner, with pragmatism and flexibility, based on incoming information in each meeting, with the goal of attaining the convergence of inflation to its target within the period of monetary policy influence.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
798
one member mentioned that, measured through the foreign trade flows of these economies, their direct ties and the destination of their products, the impact could concentrate mostly in eastern europe and euro area countries, as well as in china, although he/she considered that, given the importance of the economies involved, as suppliers of metals and commodities and as producers of fertilizers, global economic activity could be affected.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
873
some members mentioned that an estimate of the nonoccupied population who is available for employment has decreased significantly.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
123
one member indicated that, despite the above, upward risks have increased.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
906
in this regard, one member noted the lower job creation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
722
he/she delved into the fact that the effective, sustained, and coherent communication strategy followed by the federal reserve has contributed to the assimilation of its new monetary policy strategy’s highly accommodative tone by market participants, allowing news about the asset purchase program to have a limited impact on financial markets.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
110
one member mentioned that the fall in core inflation is particularly relevant, since this component better reflects the medium-term trend of headline inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
31
the same member also added that this has led to the following trends in the adjustment process: i) a high dynamism in exports; ii) a slight moderation in consumption; and, iii) a tendency for weak investment.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
664
finally, another member stated that capital inflows from foreign investors have been negative with regard to those channeled to fixed income instruments, although their holdings maintain a balance similar to that observed in previous years, while inflows destined to equity instruments were positive.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
720
they emphasized its orderly behavior in an uncertain and volatile international aversion.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
521
another member highlighted that the primary sector continued to grow.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
175
the majority pointed out that in the federal forecasts for inflation and economic growth increased, as well as the expectations for the federal funds rate.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
392
such members added that this company has structural problems and that it is essential not only that it submits a credible and functional business plan, which does not jeopardize the federal government’s fragile fiscal balance, but also that it offers a permanent solution.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
817
they noted that, in some cases, inflation reached its highest level in decades.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
953
another member noted that non-core inflation has been below forecasts.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
328
he/she stated that these two components accounted for 64% of the most recent inflation figure.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
126
banco de méxico's governing board will maintain a prudent monetary policy stance and, under the current environment of uncertainty, will follow closely the potential pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to prices, the monetary policy stance relative to that of the u.s. under an adverse external environment, and the conditions of slack in the mexican economy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
4
some members pointed out that growth is expected to run close to potential for the rest of 2018 and for 2019, thus maintaining the output gap close to zero.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
889
one member considered that the degree of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates, of financial markets and the external environment, and thus of inflation, is unusually high.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
989
some members noted that domestic financial markets performed favorably, sustaining, and in some cases, extending the gains registered since may 2020.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
726
they also noted that unemployment, underemployment and labor participation rates, as well as continued to show progress.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
414
one member highlighted the faster increase in domestic gas prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
965
some members highlighted the risk of exchange rate depreciations in light of international financial volatility events.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
661
some members stated that the external sources of financing have become negative.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
9
he/she pointed out that the most recent readings have been below the anticipated level.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
197
he/she mentioned that some of the actions of the new package aim at expanding the collateral eligible for accessing liquidity facilities and for widening the coverage to development banks.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
435
one member pointed out that the increase in commodity prices and the orderly resolution of the electoral process in the united states also contributed to the improved functioning of financial markets.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
553
including the above into the statement would convey a clearer and more credible message, which would be in line with maintaining a restrictive policy stance in absolute and relative terms for as long as necessary, but not as restrictive as the current one.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
887
one member highlighted that non-core inflation accumulated during the first seven months of the year was -3.82%, the lowest figure in the last that it has remained persistent around 3.8%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
160
regarding the foreign sector, most members noted the good performance of exports.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
637
most members mentioned that inflationary pressures have been generalized and persistent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
950
one member pointed out that credit card and debit card expenditure remained stagnant.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
799
he/she considered that if inflation and its expectations do not decrease in a clear and continuous manner in the coming months, the target rate should not be lowered.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
88
the board highlighted that, with this action, the monetary policy stance adjusts to the trajectory required for inflation to converge to its the governing board stated that for the next monetary policy decisions, it will monitor inflationary pressures thoroughly as well as all factors that have an incidence on the foreseen path for inflation and its expectations.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
487