Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_mexico

Dataset card Data Studio Files Community
sentences
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the majority of members mentioned that it is expected that, in its annual measurement, they will decrease to a larger extent after one year and that they will converge to the 3% target by the end of the forecast horizon.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
511
he/she added that the reallocation of spending generated an increase in mobile phone and internet services’ prices.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
738
he/she also deemed necessary not only to monitor whether the balance of risks remains biased to the upside, but also its evolution in response to the mitigation of tail risks, taking into account disruptions in supply chains, supply-related pressures, or if inflation becomes entrenched at elevated levels.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
307
he/she considered that, although limited available information and high uncertainty make an accurate analysis of the recent performance of economic activity difficult, different indicators show a smaller contraction, or even a slight recovery, at the beginning of may, although starting from very low levels, mainly as a result of the gradual reopening of the economy.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
83
he/she stated that the trajectory of has been better than forecasted in previous months both by the central bank and by analysts.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
488
some members mentioned the stabilization of the labor participation rate.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
566
some members pointed out that the unemployment rate increased.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
317
in this context, considering that the current monetary policy is consistent with the convergence of inflation to its target within the time frame in which monetary policy operates, banco de méxico’s governing board decided by majority to maintain the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 8.25%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
244
another member highlighted the predominance of domestic sources of financing over external ones and the increase in financing to the public sector.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
713
most members considered that slack conditions in the economy loosened towards the end of 2018 and in the early part of 2019, and some members highlighted that this confirms the existence of a negative output gap.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
403
another member stated that there are some margins for maneuver, such as the reallocation of public spending from controversial large-scale projects to priorities arisen as a result of the pandemic.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
357
he/she noted that the second factor is that there was little monetary stimulus granted in 2020 and it began to be withdrawn in advance in 2021, and, therefore, unlike other countries, mexico does not have a problem of excess demand.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
674
one member noted that an improvement was observed in both the oil trade balance and the total trade balance.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
119
some members noted that it will also result from a lower core inflation.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
72
considering all of the above, he/she stated that it is necessary to identify the different challenges and dilemmas that monetary policy faces, assess the scenarios that materialize, and based on these elements define the most convenient adjustments to the monetary policy stance.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
264
one member mentioned that non-food merchandise inflation is also highly correlated with that of the united states, which generates a process of imported inflation which would explain the dynamics of higher inflation in the northern and north-central regions of mexico.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
914
another member reflected upon the fact that, while advanced economies, which for many years have had inflation and its expectations below their targets, have more room for maneuver, in emerging economies, particularly in mexico, price formation can be more easily contaminated.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
359
they specified that in january both food and non-food inflation registered 5.54 and although food merchandise inflation still remains at high levels, it has declined considerably.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
169
most members pointed out the possible consequences on economic activity of an environment of uncertainty related to the electoral process, to institutional weakness, as well as to crime and public insecurity.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
560
the same member argued that the natural outcome of this combination of trends has been a fall in formal employment, an increase in informal labor, and a rise in the unemployment rate, which has probably been softened by the higher levels of employment in the informal sector.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
531
one member added that the central banks of canada, the euro area, england and japan did not adjust their policy rates in their march meetings either, and that they emphasized that the economic deceleration has been greater than expected.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
174
one member added to the above some idiosyncratic factors, such as those associated with insecurity, water scarcity, and climate-related phenomena.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
225
he/she added that, in that context, stock market indices increased, which offset the previous decreases.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
575
regarding the second element, he/she restated that during this inflationary period banco de méxico has acted in a timely and forceful manner.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
243
he/she said that this reflects the high levels of both energy and agricultural and livestock product prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
589
he/she added that, given the fragility of the economic recovery, further monetary tightening could affect people's wellbeing.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
556
he/she considered that it is essential to take firm and forceful actions to restore confidence in the commitment to convergence to the target within the forecast horizon.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
677
likewise, one member pointed out the weakness of the electricity sector.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
416
one member considered that the performance of labor markets could contribute to attain their inflation targets, but he/she also stated that this is still subject to uncertainty, given the moderate increases in labor costs and the risks for global economic activity.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
893
one member highlighted the brexit, where not only significant delays have materialized, but also that the probability of an agreement on terms reasonable for both the united kingdom and the european union has diminished.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
872
some members added that agricultural and livestock product prices registered smaller variations at the margin.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
883
in this regard, another member stressed that, given the intensification or materialization of some of these risks, the main economies’ central banks may be expected to take action to improve global financial conditions, just as it has happened during 2019.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
173
in this regard, he/she added that the direction of adjustments of the target rate is an even stronger signal than the level of the reference rate per se.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
120
some members mentioned additional cost- related pressures.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
261
it acknowledged the progress of the disinflationary process in mexico.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
304
he/she added that the national survey of household income and expenditure (enigh, for its acronym in spanish) suggests that there has been a reallocation of resources towards lower income deciles, which have a higher marginal propensity to consume, possibly contributing to a higher-than-expected growth in domestic spending.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
913
the governing board evaluated the magnitude and diversity of the shocks that have affected inflation and the factors that determine it, along contaminated, and the challenges posed by the ongoing tightening of monetary and financial considerations, on this occasion, the majority of the board decided to increase the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.50%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
512
one member stated that foreign participants showed interest in short-term instruments.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
973
thus, some members argued that the effect on core inflation of the shocks that non-core inflation is currently experiencing would be limited.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
127
he/she noted that the current conditions are more similar to those of 2012 than to those of similar to the former.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
313
one member added that the fed pointed out that supply-related issues and the reopening of the economy have exerted pressure on prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
841
another member pointed out that, although gross fixed investment rebounded in january, it declined again in february.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
901
one member highlighted that fundamental core inflation does not suggest any cyclical pressures on prices.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
349
most members united states.
irrelevant
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
830
most members noted that headline inflation expectations for the end of 2020 remain at levels near the target, and those for the medium and long terms have remained relatively stable, although at levels above 3%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
156
some members underlined that it exceeded the upper limit of the variability interval.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,021
723
all members mentioned that in its may meeting the us federal reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, and reiterated its message that it would be patient in making adjustments to the range.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
322
one member pointed out that markets anticipate the first rate increase to take place in the last quarter of consistent with expectations of the members of the federal open market committee (fomc), thus both foresee that the monetary stimulus will continue being significant for a long time.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
687
in this context, some members noted that the confidence of economic agents decreased.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
376
some members pointed out that during the first five months of the year around one million imss-insured jobs were lost.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
573
another member mentioned that the current outlook is even more challenging as it is optimistic to believe that the effect of the accumulation of supply and demand shocks on inflation will dissipate immediately.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
385
another member attributed this situation to the implementation of fiscal stimuli programs in several countries, while one member emphasized the lack of government guarantees for bank credit.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
827
one member mentioned that this could lead to higher volatility in domestic financial markets, undo the progress achieved in granting higher real wages and even foster a less favorable macroeconomic environment for sustained economic growth.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
755
most members mentioned services inflation resistance to decline.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
721
most members mentioned that medium- and long-term remained relatively stable, although above the 3% target.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
370
one member highlighted that it is to be expected that over the next months, the path of inflation will be very much influenced by the combined impact of the deceleration of economic activity, supply shocks from several sources, and the persistence of a situation of high uncertainty with potential effects on the exchange rate.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
600
some members noted that, despite the tightening in labor markets, the impact on wages and inflation has been moderate in said economies.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
255
he/she mentioned that with an increase of 75 basis points, the target rate would decidedly lay in restrictive territory and that it is time to evaluate up to when and to what extent the policy stance will be tightened, and what will be the response to additional hikes by the federal reserve.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
230
some members attributed the improvement in different activity indicators following an easing of mobility restrictions to a lower number of contagions and to greater advance in the vaccination process.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
711
another member argued that supply and demand shocks, and the behavior of the exchange rate, are reflected in both the divergent evolution of merchandise and services’ prices and in the contrasting price increases of different items of the cpi basket.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
877
one member pointed out that the implied volatility in exchange rate options exhibited overall increases in all maturities and remains high as compared to the levels observed in other emerging economies’ currencies, particularly for expiration dates close to july 1, when elections in mexico will take place.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
964
he/she added that the economic recovery would be gradual, while another member specified that it would be heterogeneous across regions.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
771
one member noted that this has been due to the fact that, in an uncertain environment, they have been highly sensitive to economic data.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
460
all members cautioned that monetary policy faces a more adverse scenario and with greater uncertainty.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
111
under the current conditions, there is room to lower the monetary policy rate and still keep its restrictive character given: that the negative output gap is still widening; a smaller deviation of inflation from its target; global risk aversion has diminished and accommodative monetary policies continue to prevail in most economies.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
122
as for downside risks, the same members mentioned the possibility that the prices of certain goods included in the non-core subindex could register lower variations and that economic slack could widen more than expected.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
345
another member argued that non-core inflation continues growing above its historical average of around 6%.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
634
another member deemed that services prices are responding to pressures on input costs and to an increase in demand due to greater mobility.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
692
some members noted that the balance of risks for world economic growth is biased to the downside and is subject to high uncertainty, mainly for european economies.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
22
first, they highlighted the downward pressures caused by the widening of the negative output gap and, in the short term, by lower energy prices.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
780
some members added that government bond interest rates for different terms increased throughout the year, in response to central banks’ tighter monetary policy stances.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
668
this, considering the inflation forecasts, the risks they are subject to, as well as the need to consolidate a downward trajectory for headline and core inflation to the 3% target.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
994
one member stated that episodes of volatility in us treasury and mortgage-backed securities’ markets cannot be ruled out, with possible contagion effects on the rest of the financial system.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
443
similarly, he/she noted that the open unemployment rate could be an inadequate indicator to illustrate a labor imbalance.
irrelevant
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
267
most members pointed out that credit to the private sector continued to perform poorly and highlighted the fall in financing to firms.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
701
most members pointed out that, in its latest reading, services inflation decreased.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
926
he/she also pointed out that the package includes measures to strengthen the credit channels and the programs carried out jointly with the ministry of finance to ensure the proper functioning of the bond market, in order to improve the banking sector’s positioning given the large amount of capital outflows.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
170
one member detailed that the latter is associated with lower food inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
272
in this regard, another member added that although long-term interest rates decreased in mexico, they did so to a lesser extent than in other emerging economies.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
65
they highlighted that after the last policy meeting, the mexican peso depreciated.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
151
some members mentioned that pressures have continued to intensify both on food and non-food merchandise.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
756
he/she pointed out that, although there are risks associated with this legislative process, it is key to address said challenges without jeopardizing the central bank’s autonomy, which has been a cornerstone of mexico’s macroeconomic stability and the main strength behind the country’s credit profile.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
939
however, he/she noted that its rebound has been lower than expected.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
922
among upward risks, the majority mentioned the persistence of core inflation, specifically its services component.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
451
another added to the above factors the end of the electoral process in mexico.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,018
391
he/she mentioned that given the described outlook and considering the lag with which monetary policy operates, it is imperative to lower the reference rate.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
204
in this regard, he/she emphasized that in face of the global and domestic uncertainty no scenario, neither benign nor of additional deterioration, can be ruled out; thus, monetary policy should be conducted with extreme caution, continuing with a gradual approach, monitoring the latest information to update forecasts and maintain room for maneuver to take the necessary actions in a timely and prudent manner.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
229
some members noted that in most economies, inflation remains above their respective central bank targets.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
299
he/she added that the risks to which domestic financial markets and inflation are subject to have increased.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
276
some members underlined that exports started to increase in june.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
486
in view of the deteriorating environment, it is necessary to strengthen the monetary policy stance and confirm the commitment that the necessary actions will be taken so that inflation expectations remain anchored and a deterioration of the price formation process is avoided.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
534
he/she indicated that the implied expectations for the trajectory of the reference rate in tiie swaps discount with a higher probability that the next reference rate cut will occur only until the november policy decision, and that the reference rate will close the year at 10.60%.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
978
all members highlighted that the mexican peso appreciated.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
884
in the case of the chinese economy, some members stated that, as a consequence of the trade tensions with the u.s., several policies have been adopted to revamp economic growth and continue an orderly rebalancing of this economy.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
541
however, one member noted that stock markets exhibited a heterogeneous behavior.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
983
another member noted that the negative output gap continues to be above 4% and is not expected to close before 2023.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
969
one member added that, although this sector had reactivated to some extent in december, it partially reversed such progress in january, and thus, from a medium-term perspective, it seems stagnant.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
972
some members underlined the importance of having more timely data to monitor which scenarios will materialize.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
980
one member noted that, after the episodes of financial turmoil in the international banking sector, the increase in volatility that had been observed in the foreign exchange market has reversed.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
305
regarding downward risks, most members highlighted the lower-than- anticipated economic activity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
348