id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
828937a4 | By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-08T00:00:00 | 2019-11-02T00:00:00 | 0.4765 |
8cefe958 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-04T00:00:00 | 2019-10-31T00:00:00 | 0.6099 |
b6f02584 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-08T00:00:00 | 2019-11-02T00:00:00 | 0.6632 |
09e7a585 | Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-03-20T00:00:00 | 2019-11-02T00:00:00 | 0.6855 |
86566018 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019? | Boolean question | no | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 2019-11-19T00:00:00 | 0.6936 |
99d7c9f0 | When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD? | timeframe prediction | 2022-07-12 | 2022-07-13T00:00:00 | 2019-11-28T00:00:00 | 0.4596 |
7c94dbc0 | Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-12-05T00:00:00 | 0.5708 |
78018654 | Will Alexei Navalny ever become president or prime minister of Russia? | Boolean question | no | 2024-02-16T00:00:00 | 2019-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.5169 |
7b178bf6 | Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-20T00:00:00 | 2019-12-19T00:00:00 | 0.6075 |
dcc3207e | PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products | quantity estimation | 18 | 2021-10-29T00:00:00 | 2019-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.5232 |
eeac142c | Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2019-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.719 |
b3185f34 | Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-07-15T00:00:00 | 2019-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.6273 |
3aad488f | PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it? | quantity estimation | 45 | 2021-10-29T00:00:00 | 2019-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.5457 |
45d2c182 | Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 2019-12-28T00:00:00 | 0.5052 |
efca964d | Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.5621 |
c4f3b3d4 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.6995 |
0d8194a6 | Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-01-06T00:00:00 | 0.6837 |
b6f2eddb | What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021? | quantity estimation | above_upper_bound | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-01-09T00:00:00 | 0.7423 |
9b5625f8 | Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.645 |
b8f26a8e | Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.6262 |
40e4ca58 | In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.6878 |
a3f58e2c | Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-01-31T00:00:00 | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.5114 |
b1ee27cb | Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-06-23T00:00:00 | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.5466 |
997f8e43 | Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.6939 |
e4192389 | Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-04T00:00:00 | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.566 |
a9809fa3 | Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.6021 |
72acb3a2 | Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-05-10T00:00:00 | 2020-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.6819 |
f5211d10 | Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-04-04T00:00:00 | 2020-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.6376 |
a4f8b081 | Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-07T00:00:00 | 2020-01-17T00:00:00 | 0.7096 |
77613a94 | [closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021? | quantity estimation | above_upper_bound | 2020-03-06T00:00:00 | 2020-01-17T00:00:00 | 0.7139 |
c21a1579 | How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020? | quantity estimation | 55 | 2021-01-02T00:00:00 | 2020-01-19T00:00:00 | 0.5869 |
df5ab464 | Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-01-19T00:00:00 | 0.6317 |
6e91051a | Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2019-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.7011 |
de64de86 | How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021? | quantity estimation | 5078220 | 2022-05-06T00:00:00 | 2020-01-25T00:00:00 | 0.587 |
f0821006 | How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020? | quantity estimation | 4470 | 2021-01-19T00:00:00 | 2020-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.6702 |
5b19f9c8 | How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th? | quantity estimation | 71810 | 2020-02-17T00:00:00 | 2020-01-26T00:00:00 | 0.6639 |
de62ad07 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2022-02-15T00:00:00 | 2018-05-16T00:00:00 | 0.4289 |
17259f0d | Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-31T00:00:00 | 2020-02-03T00:00:00 | 0.5603 |
4567e541 | When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store? | timeframe prediction | 2021-10-11 | 2021-10-26T00:00:00 | 2020-02-03T00:00:00 | 0.5916 |
ee8b1102 | How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020? | quantity estimation | 89197 | 2020-03-02T00:00:00 | 2020-01-26T00:00:00 | 0.6653 |
f7dac209 | Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-21T00:00:00 | 2020-02-07T00:00:00 | 0.7166 |
b6cd25de | Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-21T00:00:00 | 2020-02-07T00:00:00 | 0.7165 |
9b22363a | Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday? | Boolean question | no | 2020-03-04T00:00:00 | 2020-02-07T00:00:00 | 0.5978 |
5e3e2a7c | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-08T00:00:00 | 2020-02-08T00:00:00 | 0.1435 |
ea95921e | Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-04T00:00:00 | 2020-02-09T00:00:00 | 0.6387 |
cb4235f6 | Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2020-02-09T00:00:00 | 0.4048 |
ba24285a | Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-23T00:00:00 | 2020-02-11T00:00:00 | 0.3364 |
bea6969b | How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? | quantity estimation | 1642 | 2024-06-20T00:00:00 | 2020-02-11T00:00:00 | 0.6481 |
6738a35b | Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-11-19T00:00:00 | 2020-02-11T00:00:00 | 0.5135 |
74177aa5 | Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? | Boolean question | yes | 2022-03-28T00:00:00 | 2020-02-11T00:00:00 | 0.5695 |
b0ecfad4 | Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2020-02-17T00:00:00 | 0.6451 |
c60a8251 | Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-24T00:00:00 | 2020-02-18T00:00:00 | 0.5049 |
56712225 | Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-22T00:00:00 | 2020-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.5064 |
a9341322 | How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27? | quantity estimation | 2419 | 2020-03-27T00:00:00 | 2020-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.5238 |
b6b319dd | How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27? | quantity estimation | 286697 | 2020-03-27T00:00:00 | 2020-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.6366 |
6305f050 | Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17? | Boolean question | no | 2020-05-17T00:00:00 | 2020-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.4409 |
90dbadaf | Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? | Boolean question | no | 2020-05-17T00:00:00 | 2020-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.6608 |
0f921825 | How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27? | quantity estimation | 2932 | 2020-03-27T00:00:00 | 2020-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.6684 |
3c7652fa | How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27? | quantity estimation | 81137 | 2020-03-27T00:00:00 | 2020-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.5966 |
19fd70f3 | What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2020-03-27T00:00:00 | 2020-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.7232 |
d384d23d | Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-11T00:00:00 | 2020-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.5123 |
1fbceaaf | How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th? | quantity estimation | 1406574 | 2020-04-27T00:00:00 | 2020-02-22T00:00:00 | 0.5675 |
5272e584 | Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-02-23T00:00:00 | 0.1433 |
f113afaf | If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-07T00:00:00 | 2020-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.5428 |
bb21e122 | Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-02T00:00:00 | 2020-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.7006 |
5daff672 | How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020? | quantity estimation | 397 | 2020-04-01T00:00:00 | 2020-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.6228 |
66ebb2a2 | Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-06-06T00:00:00 | 2020-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.6391 |
1a134930 | How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020? | quantity estimation | 2456 | 2020-04-01T00:00:00 | 2020-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.7248 |
5fdbd50f | Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-31T00:00:00 | 2020-02-27T00:00:00 | 0.5252 |
a76bc8a6 | Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-12T00:00:00 | 2020-02-28T00:00:00 | 0.6242 |
be8a62f8 | Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-18T00:00:00 | 2020-02-28T00:00:00 | 0.4855 |
ee9714aa | What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2022-05-06T00:00:00 | 2020-02-28T00:00:00 | 0.5585 |
3646f5ef | Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-05T00:00:00 | 2020-02-28T00:00:00 | 0.5827 |
7eccb65c | How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th? | quantity estimation | 11816 | 2020-03-27T00:00:00 | 2020-02-28T00:00:00 | 0.5816 |
84d869cc | How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020? | quantity estimation | 9361784 | 2020-07-02T00:00:00 | 2020-02-29T00:00:00 | 0.686 |
8ffb49fa | How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020? | quantity estimation | 23226449 | 2020-10-04T00:00:00 | 2020-02-29T00:00:00 | 0.6322 |
5d95ddd9 | How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020? | quantity estimation | 47588363 | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 2020-02-29T00:00:00 | 0.6065 |
f2c9f7f8 | Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-08T00:00:00 | 2020-03-03T00:00:00 | 0.7076 |
10327d2c | Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? | quantity estimation | 12 | 2020-12-29T00:00:00 | 2020-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.6768 |
dfc5b908 | Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-03-16T00:00:00 | 2020-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.6778 |
0c58bece | What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close? | quantity estimation | 18592 | 2020-11-16T00:00:00 | 2020-03-05T00:00:00 | 0.6225 |
b545a101 | Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-13T00:00:00 | 2020-03-05T00:00:00 | 0.4932 |
337e9a32 | Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-11-05T00:00:00 | 2020-03-05T00:00:00 | 0.6929 |
a5610fb7 | What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2021-01-23T00:00:00 | 2020-03-06T00:00:00 | 0.4673 |
49066eb2 | What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020? | quantity estimation | above_upper_bound | 2021-01-05T00:00:00 | 2020-03-07T00:00:00 | 0.4607 |
f67ee849 | What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020? | quantity estimation | 52 | 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-03-08T00:00:00 | 0.6059 |
9c86b1dc | Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2020-03-10T00:00:00 | 0.7058 |
78011861 | How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th? | quantity estimation | 37845 | 2020-04-27T00:00:00 | 2020-03-11T00:00:00 | 0.7803 |
8025bfcd | How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range] | quantity estimation | 1221759132 | 2022-01-17T00:00:00 | 2020-03-11T00:00:00 | 0.5414 |
27ac1798 | How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.8184 |
44704280 | Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-04-17T00:00:00 | 2020-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.5211 |
d10e5560 | Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.7018 |
af4120e7 | Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-10-02T00:00:00 | 2020-03-14T00:00:00 | 0.4337 |
78b78a4a | When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people? | timeframe prediction | 2021-01-30 | 2021-06-28T00:00:00 | 2020-03-14T00:00:00 | 0.6312 |
e175ca43 | Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2024-03-16T00:00:00 | 2020-03-15T00:00:00 | 0.8311 |
d3675a39 | When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million? | timeframe prediction | 2020-04-02 | 2020-04-02T00:00:00 | 2020-03-16T00:00:00 | 0.7021 |
2d66ede3 | How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th? | quantity estimation | 152840 | 2020-04-27T00:00:00 | 2020-03-16T00:00:00 | 0.6842 |
0afb36c7 | How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? | quantity estimation | 1221759132 | 2022-01-17T00:00:00 | 2020-03-20T00:00:00 | 0.5859 |
2b2151a5 | Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2021-01-02T00:00:00 | 2020-03-21T00:00:00 | 0.6823 |
8eddc096 | Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-09-11T00:00:00 | 2020-03-21T00:00:00 | 0.6346 |
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