id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2ba94b78 | Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-16T00:00:00 | 2024-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.7175 |
83fdd58a | Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-05-03T00:00:00 | 2024-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.5014 |
ea7eb5cb | Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-14T00:00:00 | 2024-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.704 |
a38bcb73 | Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.6358 |
e1d4803c | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States as of May 20, 2024? | quantity estimation | 139 | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.6775 |
d88ee09d | Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-13T00:00:00 | 0.6594 |
44b62248 | Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 2024-04-13T00:00:00 | 0.6755 |
ef8591c8 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 2024-04-13T00:00:00 | 0.6887 |
e13e8573 | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-21T00:00:00 | 2024-04-15T00:00:00 | 0.5744 |
7a6be6e2 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | quantity estimation | 5018 | 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 2024-04-15T00:00:00 | 0.6772 |
c47fab62 | What will be the 10-year Treasury yield at close on May 20, 2024? | quantity estimation | 4 | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.6413 |
a46b6ff9 | Will President Biden make an international trip between April 24 and May 20, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-21T00:00:00 | 2024-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.707 |
229f4ceb | What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga following its premiere at Cannes? | quantity estimation | 86 | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.5891 |
cf3f59a8 | Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.7251 |
497c4c14 | What will be the settle price of July futures of Brent crude oil (in US dollars per barrel) for May 7, 2024? | quantity estimation | 83 | 2024-05-08T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.548 |
dc48bcd1 | Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.5619 |
0ad1d467 | What will be the settle price of May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts for May 15, 2024? | quantity estimation | 243 | 2024-05-16T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.641 |
0394b738 | Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-04-24T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.5142 |
b8a7f183 | By what percent will Rubrik's stock price change from its IPO price on its first day of trading? | quantity estimation | 16 | 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.611 |
deda50a2 | What will be the median change in monthly household spending in the US compared to one year ago for April 2024? | quantity estimation | 5 | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.6267 |
7a09b725 | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-05-09T00:00:00 | 2024-04-23T00:00:00 | 0.5307 |
4767cd10 | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | timeframe prediction | 2024-06-06 | 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.6041 |
352543cf | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-04-30T00:00:00 | 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 0.6608 |
c3fe948c | How many flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on May 18th, 2024? | quantity estimation | 106 | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 0.4495 |
78f2543e | As of May 21, 2024, will OpenAI report at least 99.9% uptime for ChatGPT for May 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-21T00:00:00 | 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 0.7106 |
d11cfc42 | Will the San Francisco Bay Area experience an earthquake of at least 3.0 magnitude during the seven-day period ending midday on May 14th, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-15T00:00:00 | 2024-04-26T00:00:00 | 0.6897 |
a65a9d05 | What will the global temperature anomaly be (in degrees Celsius) for April 2024? | quantity estimation | 1 | 2024-05-14T00:00:00 | 2024-04-26T00:00:00 | 0.6029 |
5134153a | Before May 20, 2024, will it be announced that Minouche Shafik will no longer be President of Columbia University? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-29T00:00:00 | 0.7244 |
eb4acf14 | Will there be a named Atlantic storm or hurricane before May 20, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-29T00:00:00 | 0.6862 |
2a9db8f0 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Boolean question | no | 2024-06-30T00:00:00 | 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 0.626 |
f84ac10d | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | 2024-05-07T00:00:00 | 0.6322 |
9dcc0974 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Boolean question | no | 2024-11-25T00:00:00 | 2024-05-17T00:00:00 | 0.698 |
e413dcd1 | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | 2024-05-22T00:00:00 | 0.7046 |
ceb433c1 | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | quantity estimation | 20 | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | 2024-05-22T00:00:00 | 0.6693 |
ab8b1203 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-07T00:00:00 | 2024-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.6621 |
9f107eb0 | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.7296 |
4cef4aea | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Boolean question | no | 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | 2024-05-25T00:00:00 | 0.6712 |
d87adb70 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Boolean question | no | 2024-06-28T00:00:00 | 2024-05-31T00:00:00 | 0.4309 |
79fdf273 | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-12-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 0.2582 |
394dd221 | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-06-30T00:00:00 | 2024-06-17T00:00:00 | 0.553 |
1705db2d | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | quantity estimation | 32 | 2024-09-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-27T00:00:00 | 0.6544 |
8dd9a99f | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-28T00:00:00 | 0.728 |
15a98514 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-29T00:00:00 | 0.695 |
44e6913c | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Boolean question | no | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 2024-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.6839 |
b11960ca | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-08-06T00:00:00 | 2024-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.7055 |
36c35a23 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-08-05T00:00:00 | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | 0.7167 |
3010cad0 | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | quantity estimation | 36 | 2024-09-18T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | 0.6473 |
f17c4add | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-07-29T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | 0.3694 |
d10e1af3 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 2024-07-11T00:00:00 | 0.4992 |
4e90929d | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-23T00:00:00 | 0.7 |
bb5bd87d | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-25T00:00:00 | 0.7132 |
813b19e4 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-30T00:00:00 | 0.7292 |
226bcd1f | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-09-04T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | 0.6761 |
2a7bad42 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-09-20T00:00:00 | 2024-08-05T00:00:00 | 0.726 |
f8710fa2 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | quantity estimation | 118 | 2024-10-08T00:00:00 | 2024-08-05T00:00:00 | 0.4472 |
7bc08f6c | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-10-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-06T00:00:00 | 0.6426 |
93089329 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-12T00:00:00 | 0.7249 |
f71ab09e | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | 0.6785 |
ef3bdb5e | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-09-11T00:00:00 | 2024-08-26T00:00:00 | 0.7188 |
a1f540b3 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-27T00:00:00 | 0.7172 |
94cab0bd | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-09-11T00:00:00 | 2024-08-27T00:00:00 | 0.4437 |
a9f2f571 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-27T00:00:00 | 0.7217 |
f4a978b9 | Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-10-08T00:00:00 | 2024-08-29T00:00:00 | 0.4909 |
119857b8 | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-03T00:00:00 | 0.7122 |
f81be422 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-07T00:00:00 | 0.7112 |
4abf5a5d | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | quantity estimation | 29 | 2024-10-03T00:00:00 | 2024-09-08T00:00:00 | 0.6398 |
afd8cfda | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-07T00:00:00 | 2024-09-09T00:00:00 | 0.5882 |
84bbef04 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-14T00:00:00 | 0.7157 |
e6239d91 | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-16T00:00:00 | 0.6561 |
d7104107 | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | quantity estimation | 3407 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-26T00:00:00 | 0.6358 |
281d4716 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-28T00:00:00 | 0.5597 |
045c109e | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2024-12-31T00:00:00 | 2024-09-29T00:00:00 | 0.7202 |
44490c42 | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-03T00:00:00 | 0.7275 |
6720b158 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.229 |
bf40906d | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-12-26T00:00:00 | 2024-10-08T00:00:00 | 0.705 |
64cdfa0b | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Boolean question | no | 2024-12-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-11T00:00:00 | 0.6915 |
da17e48b | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-11T00:00:00 | 0.7058 |
d1e1bb04 | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | quantity estimation | 10 | 2025-01-09T00:00:00 | 2024-10-12T00:00:00 | 0.5758 |
dec2e6d2 | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-15T00:00:00 | 0.7061 |
30b2b9de | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Boolean question | no | 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2024-10-15T00:00:00 | 0.6724 |
7d533a55 | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | quantity estimation | above_upper_bound | 2024-12-20T00:00:00 | 2024-10-22T00:00:00 | 0.664 |
43e68f80 | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | quantity estimation | 282 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-22T00:00:00 | 0.5431 |
55086f45 | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk's net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | quantity estimation | above_upper_bound | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 0.7248 |
dc4b0495 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-04T00:00:00 | 2024-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.7013 |
474f4e0d | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-12-13T00:00:00 | 2024-11-12T00:00:00 | 0.2535 |
0bbfead6 | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-03T00:00:00 | 2024-11-19T00:00:00 | 0.0548 |
10e11512 | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | quantity estimation | -1 | 2024-12-27T00:00:00 | 2024-11-25T00:00:00 | 0.5917 |
742ef9b0 | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | quantity estimation | 219 | 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 2024-11-25T00:00:00 | 0.6018 |
c88683d9 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-11-26T00:00:00 | 0.5459 |
7628c01f | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Boolean question | yes | 2024-12-20T00:00:00 | 2024-11-26T00:00:00 | 0.5332 |
37ebbdc9 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-12-03T00:00:00 | 0.5825 |
85b06fed | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.6911 |
4bd363e2 | Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-24T00:00:00 | 2024-12-19T00:00:00 | 0.6654 |
0cce0ece | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | quantity estimation | above_upper_bound | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 0.5889 |
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