id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2834a205 | Will 2018 be the warmest year on record? | Boolean question | no | 2019-02-06T00:00:00 | 2017-08-15T00:00:00 | 0.4741 |
a914e0b2 | How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year? | quantity estimation | 1 | 2018-09-05T00:00:00 | 2017-08-19T00:00:00 | 0.6692 |
d1866b37 | A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-07-04T00:00:00 | 2017-08-27T00:00:00 | 0.2793 |
e596b7fa | Will Ethereum hit 75% of Bitcoin's market cap during November 2017? | Boolean question | no | 2017-12-01T00:00:00 | 2017-08-31T00:00:00 | 0.689 |
48802f8d | Another significant cryptocurrency split during November 2017? | Boolean question | yes | 2017-12-05T00:00:00 | 2017-08-31T00:00:00 | 0.423 |
dde22d99 | Will Bitcoin Cash fade into oblivion? | Boolean question | no | 2017-11-16T00:00:00 | 2017-08-31T00:00:00 | 0.3516 |
389bdccc | Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 | 2017-09-06T00:00:00 | 0.7011 |
1d1c0afc | Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year? | Boolean question | no | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2017-09-22T00:00:00 | 0.4383 |
53614b37 | Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-05-21T00:00:00 | 2017-09-22T00:00:00 | 0.5292 |
46963cb2 | Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021? | Boolean question | no | 2022-03-21T00:00:00 | 2017-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.6614 |
6da360cc | Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-04-17T00:00:00 | 2017-11-12T00:00:00 | 0.5908 |
f7b4c4db | Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 | 2017-11-12T00:00:00 | 0.4222 |
2bb978a2 | Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-01-02T00:00:00 | 2017-11-16T00:00:00 | 0.5504 |
b15edf79 | Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 | 2017-11-28T00:00:00 | 0.6153 |
7dd73883 | Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-04-20T00:00:00 | 2017-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.6895 |
7dd2aafa | Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-26T00:00:00 | 2017-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.6094 |
20cb02f0 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019? | Boolean question | no | 2019-07-01T00:00:00 | 2018-01-20T00:00:00 | 0.6533 |
1ca3f8a6 | A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon? | Boolean question | no | 2019-02-03T00:00:00 | 2018-01-24T00:00:00 | 0.5615 |
c016399b | Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation? | Boolean question | no | 2018-07-05T00:00:00 | 2018-01-28T00:00:00 | 0.6203 |
fa9e39d7 | Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-08-21T00:00:00 | 2018-02-01T00:00:00 | 0.6872 |
295f3bd5 | Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-01-03T00:00:00 | 2018-02-07T00:00:00 | 0.5095 |
7e41a7e5 | Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-02-13T00:00:00 | 0.68 |
6953ac65 | Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member? | Boolean question | no | 2020-08-02T00:00:00 | 2018-02-14T00:00:00 | 0.7191 |
a269eee3 | Will Bitcoin's energy consumption double again? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-02-17T00:00:00 | 0.3859 |
2ed86ccc | Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option? | Boolean question | no | 2021-01-04T00:00:00 | 2018-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.639 |
a0b87f0b | Will quantum computing "supremacy" be achieved by 2025? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-12-05T00:00:00 | 2018-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.3467 |
34b4480c | Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-05-23T00:00:00 | 2018-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.6413 |
5dd51da2 | Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.6409 |
628d2b3e | Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-11-28T00:00:00 | 2018-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.6098 |
c386de1b | Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021? | Boolean question | no | 2021-01-19T00:00:00 | 2018-03-03T00:00:00 | 0.5789 |
865ce9fd | Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-11-08T00:00:00 | 2018-03-05T00:00:00 | 0.6051 |
c56a6ee5 | How many US Senate seats will Democrats control after 2018 midterm elections? | quantity estimation | 45 | 2018-11-30T00:00:00 | 2018-03-05T00:00:00 | 0.5973 |
5330a3a5 | Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-04T00:00:00 | 2018-03-16T00:00:00 | 0.6812 |
35cecd5a | Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2018-03-16T00:00:00 | 0.6113 |
b0d6124e | Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-01T00:00:00 | 2018-03-19T00:00:00 | 0.701 |
929f9cbc | Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-08-19T00:00:00 | 2018-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.6133 |
e320412c | How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2018-08-29T00:00:00 | 2018-03-28T00:00:00 | 0.6824 |
2294c325 | Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Singapore between 1 April 2018 and 31 May 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-06-05T00:00:00 | 2018-03-28T00:00:00 | 0.6752 |
ccc5f25f | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in May 2018? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2018-06-02T00:00:00 | 2018-04-04T00:00:00 | 0.7938 |
1d8fb56b | Will May Day protests turn violent? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-05-02T00:00:00 | 2018-04-16T00:00:00 | 0.584 |
6ac69813 | Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? | Boolean question | no | 2022-01-04T00:00:00 | 2018-04-17T00:00:00 | 0.5814 |
5375825a | Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-12-12T00:00:00 | 2018-04-18T00:00:00 | 0.5162 |
9fe1a3bd | Model 3 spot production rate at end of 2018? | quantity estimation | 4611 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-04-28T00:00:00 | 0.4961 |
b3a6c197 | Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-05-07T00:00:00 | 0.6859 |
620ea178 | Will the current Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases? | Boolean question | no | 2018-07-18T00:00:00 | 2018-05-11T00:00:00 | 0.7064 |
230ef5c4 | Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023? | Boolean question | no | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.5642 |
fd8b0df4 | Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-02T00:00:00 | 2018-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.7248 |
5f7ba1fd | Will Kim Jong-un meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-06-12T00:00:00 | 2018-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.5289 |
7beab91b | Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-05-24T00:00:00 | 0.5416 |
080d7cb6 | Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-08-17T00:00:00 | 2018-05-25T00:00:00 | 0.5907 |
474a5141 | Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-11-25T00:00:00 | 2018-05-25T00:00:00 | 0.5136 |
5be42b28 | Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle announce a pregnancy by year's end? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-10-15T00:00:00 | 2018-05-25T00:00:00 | 0.4151 |
952001ee | Will a MLB pitcher throw a perfect game in 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-20T00:00:00 | 2018-05-25T00:00:00 | 0.6115 |
3b21e046 | Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-04T00:00:00 | 2018-05-30T00:00:00 | 0.7095 |
f62e023a | Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away? | quantity estimation | 75 | 2019-05-18T00:00:00 | 2018-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.5938 |
b586292b | Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023? | Boolean question | no | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-06-03T00:00:00 | 0.6834 |
416c1b86 | Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021? | Boolean question | no | 2021-01-02T00:00:00 | 2018-06-03T00:00:00 | 0.6191 |
ba039d8c | Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-18T00:00:00 | 2018-06-06T00:00:00 | 0.6994 |
20edb0bf | What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021? | quantity estimation | 0 | 2022-02-02T00:00:00 | 2018-06-14T00:00:00 | 0.5494 |
fb98e612 | Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon blast off before 2018 is out? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-06-16T00:00:00 | 0.6136 |
a20bc6ba | Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-30T00:00:00 | 2018-06-16T00:00:00 | 0.6469 |
79ed4141 | Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-06-17T00:00:00 | 0.6553 |
291dbd50 | When will the Apple car be unveiled? | timeframe prediction | above_upper_bound | 2021-06-18T00:00:00 | 2018-06-17T00:00:00 | 0.7261 |
296b2f2b | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024? | Boolean question | no | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-06-20T00:00:00 | 0.444 |
e32b1ccb | Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-06-24T00:00:00 | 0.4259 |
1dfa7e7c | Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company? | Boolean question | yes | 2019-01-20T00:00:00 | 2018-06-27T00:00:00 | 0.54 |
c3d55fcf | Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-10-06T00:00:00 | 2018-06-28T00:00:00 | 0.6374 |
fbf801d4 | Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028? | Boolean question | yes | 2022-06-24T00:00:00 | 2018-06-28T00:00:00 | 0.4379 |
0191658a | Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean? | Boolean question | no | 2018-11-26T00:00:00 | 2018-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.4936 |
7c2f76b6 | Will OpenAI's machine system defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-08-06T00:00:00 | 2018-07-02T00:00:00 | 0.617 |
ebcd33b4 | Will the Opportunity Mars rover awaken after the dust storm passes? | Boolean question | no | 2019-02-03T00:00:00 | 2018-07-06T00:00:00 | 0.3654 |
16fa48d7 | Will we find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-24T00:00:00 | 2018-07-07T00:00:00 | 0.7246 |
17f02848 | Will Michael Phelps be tempted out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-02T00:00:00 | 2018-07-07T00:00:00 | 0.6335 |
bf1b3f9d | Will there be an X-Class solar flare before October 1, 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-10-01T00:00:00 | 2018-07-08T00:00:00 | 0.6708 |
f573716c | Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-09T00:00:00 | 2018-07-11T00:00:00 | 0.705 |
cfdd85c6 | Will Donald Trump's approval rating decline noticeably in the wake of the Helsinki Summit? | Boolean question | no | 2018-07-31T00:00:00 | 2018-07-17T00:00:00 | 0.5788 |
15646440 | Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-07T00:00:00 | 2018-07-17T00:00:00 | 0.5513 |
bfe916b5 | Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-02-01T00:00:00 | 2018-07-24T00:00:00 | 0.657 |
fa5bec3c | Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-01-31T00:00:00 | 2018-07-27T00:00:00 | 0.6937 |
87df5d1e | Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-10-06T00:00:00 | 2018-07-30T00:00:00 | 0.6183 |
8edec5e4 | Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders? | Boolean question | no | 2020-08-19T00:00:00 | 2018-07-30T00:00:00 | 0.6179 |
6cf81783 | Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-25T00:00:00 | 2018-08-07T00:00:00 | 0.679 |
8dc0865f | Will a "Deepfake" video about a national U.S. political candidate running for office in 2018 get 2M+ views? | Boolean question | no | 2019-03-09T00:00:00 | 2018-08-07T00:00:00 | 0.6529 |
cfb730c2 | Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit? | Boolean question | no | 2019-03-29T00:00:00 | 2018-08-07T00:00:00 | 0.5886 |
534f0adb | Will Tesla go private prior to 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-08-08T00:00:00 | 0.674 |
4b11aef2 | Will Elon Musk be sanctioned for Tesla buyout tweet? | Boolean question | yes | 2018-09-29T00:00:00 | 2018-08-10T00:00:00 | 0.3386 |
4e887d88 | Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-08-11T00:00:00 | 0.2383 |
80bd88da | Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q (or as part of the team that is Q)? | Boolean question | no | 2018-09-30T00:00:00 | 2018-08-17T00:00:00 | 0.6269 |
9a2d4207 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020? | Boolean question | yes | 2020-06-08T00:00:00 | 2018-08-21T00:00:00 | 0.4588 |
3cd5d00e | Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025? | Boolean question | no | 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2018-08-22T00:00:00 | 0.4132 |
c39a7d54 | Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-10-01T00:00:00 | 2018-08-31T00:00:00 | 0.6587 |
e949396c | Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election? | Boolean question | no | 2019-10-22T00:00:00 | 2018-09-02T00:00:00 | 0.5878 |
a9fd839d | Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature? | Boolean question | no | 2019-04-01T00:00:00 | 2018-09-05T00:00:00 | 0.7083 |
d79e2a7b | Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial be discovered by Nov 6 2018? | Boolean question | no | 2018-11-06T00:00:00 | 2018-09-05T00:00:00 | 0.6318 |
c0aca193 | Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 2018-09-07T00:00:00 | 0.4223 |
ba9bc579 | How much will President Trump govern by decree? | quantity estimation | 1 | 2021-02-02T00:00:00 | 2018-09-11T00:00:00 | 0.6477 |
d7ae867e | Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020? | Boolean question | no | 2020-11-03T00:00:00 | 2018-09-16T00:00:00 | 0.664 |
8de0ff13 | Will Pope Francis resign by the end of the year? | Boolean question | no | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | 2018-09-16T00:00:00 | 0.6684 |
32433c9d | Has Michael Atiyah possibly cracked the Riemann hypothesis? | Boolean question | no | 2018-10-15T00:00:00 | 2018-09-22T00:00:00 | 0.6055 |
4d3e2dd0 | Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022? | Boolean question | yes | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2018-09-28T00:00:00 | 0.6889 |
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